Poorer nations won't bother buying vaccine for mass innoculation, it will only be for the wealthy top few percent.
My former colleague who lives in Nigeria tells me very few people bother about Covid. The reason? Fifty percent of Nigeria's population is under 18, only 3 percent make it past 60. Life is already full of things that can kill you so why worry and Christian or Muslim there's a fair degree of religious fatalism as well - if it's God's will, what can I do?
In the longer term the NHS will change; the unwillingness of politicians to recognise, reward and support those people who are working harder than ever will lead to those people stepping outside the NHS and working for agencies.
This in turn will grant more power and influence to agencies who provide staff and soon enough, those staff and agencies will take over the running of various departments within hospitals. I suspect this will occur in specialised areas at first; Theatre depts, Intensive Care units and the like.
This will lead in turn to the slow but inexorable diminution of the rights of those people, in terms of job protection, pension rights, terms of service and so on.
The NHS will pay more on a day to day basis for the services of people but the State will ultimately pay less because of the lack of need to provide pensions and other support.
20 years from now we will end up with a Health Service that is run by the State but is provided by private organisations in terms of staffing and equipment hire, PFI writ large...
There will never be a vaccine for Brexit unfortunately.
I am optimistically predicting that basically everything I didn't like about 2019 will be faithfully restored, while as much as possible of the damage done in 2020 to small businesses, healthcare, low income workers etc will be left as is. With the added benefit that we can now officially treat NHS staff as expendable, and stick the "NHS" logo on rubbish services provided at high price by the private sector to deflect any criticism. In fact the advances in corruption are far greater than anyone could have hoped.
I think they’re reporting it 70% because of the odd way because of the odd regime differences, based on 20k people, giving a half-size dose on the first one, makes it more effective… it seems so counter-intuitive that I think it seems more like a statistical error.
On the contrary, it made perfect sense to me, (I’m no scientist, but I have a layman’s understanding). Giving a half-dose gets the body’s immune system prepared for the effect of the C19 spikes when they enter the body, while the second full dose gets the primed system up and working fully; giving a full dose to start with doesn’t work any better because the immune system still has to develop a response, it can’t go from zero to flat-out.
The other, big advantage is that give a half-dose means supplies go twice as far, treating twice as many people for half the cost, while allowing stocks of the full strength dose to build up.
Then there’s the cost benefit, it’s about $3-4 a dose, against $15-25 for the other vaccines, and it can be stored in an ordinary fridge, or for a couple of days at room temperature. It’s a win-win, as far as I can see.
A lot of firms will move to wfh. The middle class will continue to shrink in income terms but people might still imagine themselves to be 'a cut above'. Current expenditure plans on eg arms will not be reflationary due to the capital intensive skilled labour force with a lower likelihood of increasing spending in line with increasing income. Inflation arising from devaluation will eat into incomes. The NHS is a very large employer and the government will be very wary of giving them a reasonable rise due to wages drift. The PLP will provide no opposition and the party will continue with splits, allegations, apologies and expulsions because of the loyalties expressed by SKS. More people will see a role for militant trades unionism and street protests.
House builders will be given free reign to put up unaffordable bland newbuild boxes (maybe leasehold) everywhere. Some landlords will be selling property, (overseas?) investors who've had their fingers burnt over city-centre newbuild towerblocks will be looking to buy strings of residential properties to let out. There will be an increased demand for rental property from people who lost their mortgage and this will burden the benefit system.
Food standards will go down and like 2008, supermarkets will introduce 'new lines' that before were only sold in E Europe. Shoes made out of 'faux' will be more common.
Lockdowns will have made people reflect on their patterns of expenditure. With reduced income, flashing those notes in the restaurant or down the pub will seem a bit daft and poor vfm. More people have learnt to shop around online. In terms of reflating the economy, the government haven't really got a plan or a clue (and certainly not MMT). There's no way they will invest in labour-intensive or job creating industries, money will continue to go to their mates (subsidies to the racing industry cf amateur boxing) who will save it, squirrel it abroad or buy imported goods.
I see significant regional variations with a lot of misdirected anger but a significant rise in political consciousness as well as reactionary cynicism. The question will be which organisation can place itself at the front of the groundswell of disaffection, or not. Like with all crises, the system gobbles up the weak, increases the wealth of a very few and continues with austerity.
Poorer nations won’t bother buying vaccine for mass innoculation, it will only be for the wealthy top few percent.
They'll be cheap generic version available and billions from the Gates foundation to help pay for delivery and distribution....
Once the rich west has paid for theirs, the prices will plummet....
Cheap vaccines for the 3rd world...
@BillMC
You've gone a bit OTT on the TLAs there.
I understand WFH and NHS; but could you please explain PLP, SKS and MMT?
By 2022 we'll be partying like its 1999.
I will add another one: there is going to be a huge teacher recruitment and training crisis. I think we are wearing teachers and early years educators into the ground at the moment. While many of us recognise and applaud NHS and care staff, I think there is a 'blindness' to the efforts in education and zero funding for it.
Fast forward a few months and years and we will see many people leaving, broken by the work, the lack of support from Government and a general 'brokenness' felt by many over this time.
By 2022 we’ll be partying like its 1999.
With the same GDP.
Beg your pardon, I wasn't trying to be poncey, honest:
Parliamentary Labour Party, Sir KS and Modern Monetary Theory
So basically, whether you're an optimist or a pessimist, socialist or capitalist, it's going to more of what you thought the Pre-Covid world was.
With added Brexity Goodness ™
By 2022 we’ll be partying like its 1999.
With the same GDP.
You're obviously an optimist 😉
By 2022 we’ll be partying like its 1999.
With the same GDP.
You’re obviously an optimist 😉
I predict half the GDP and the bonus ball says - double ye olde un employe ment!
The 70% efficacy is the intent to treat analysis. The only one that matters. AZ will struggle to justify the lower dose due to the unplanned nature. Normally it would be “hypothesis generating” and confirmed by another trial.
Once the rich west has paid for theirs, the prices will plummet….
GSK have said theirs will be cost plus a little bit for more research. See malaria. There will be plenty of vaccines for the whole world. I am in no doubt.
As for normal. I predict the economy will bounce back faster than people think. Taxes may go up a little. Inflation may rise. But by end of 2022 we’ll be back to where we were. Perhaps with more people working at home more. People and systems revert to type.
