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My view is that the forces that control fiat are more powerful than those that believe in an unregulated currency.
I'd say it boils down to the fact that 99.99% of the world economies depend on fiat currencies and no one depends on BC for day to day living, it's probably a safe bet to expect fiat currencies to survive....
For ES - I see it from 2 sides.
Micro
Easy remittance of value. This benefits the dirt poor who live hand to mouth. Volatile doesn't matter too much as they they don't have a lot of value to hold over any kind of significant period. using BTC lightning network - they can remit many times a day, whatever the amount for very little slippage in value - instead of Western Union once a week loosing 10%. Day to day there will be a circular economy as legal tender is not taxable.
Macro
% of GDP expressed in USD and US monetary policy. I'm not educated in this area hence asking the question for discussion. Though I'm net positive on crypto both from the point of view of value (BTC) and a tech (ETH etc..) I do wonder (and worry a little) if a move like this could mess up Latin America buy the reaction of first world countries.
. I don’t think anyone is saying that nothing can go wrong with fiat.
Cool, so you don't mind if some of us hedge our bets?
I don't mind at all. I'm not arguing for it to be banned! It's an entertaining story to follow and it gets you thinking. If it became useful for me I'd use it.
It occurs to me that I never actually answered the question of how to decide which crypto currency to buy so I'll lay out my strategy here.
First off, I would make a truly appalling day trader and if I tried to trade cyrpto I would be a financially poorer emotional mess as I agonised over the decision each and every time my finger hovered over the buy or sell button.
I therefore decided to automate my trades using the 3commas bot.
Before I talk about that though, I think the best strategy for buying any crypto is Dollar Cost Averaging no matter how you want to buy it. I set aside a percentage of my income each month and buy a little each time. I'm actually thinking about splitting it further and buying each week as the last two months I've gotten paid a few days before a significant drop in the market.
I started buying USDT which is a stable coin tied to USD. From there I set up my trading bot and started trading that way. Up until the recent BTC drop to around 35k my returns on this were averaging around 1% per day.
Prior to the drop I had four different bots using different buy and sell triggers and I would allocate the funds I added each month according to how the each bot was performing.
With the drop in BTC price I found myself holding a bunch of altcoins and losses of 20% to 60% depending on the coin. At that point I exchanged all these coins for BTC, ETH, or BNB with a little USDT left over.
The reason for this is that there are a lot of other coins that can be traded with BTC, ETH, and BNB on Binance so I was able to set up new bots to trade with these funds.
At the moment I'm around 2.3% down. When you consider I started trading with the price of BTC around $60k I'm actually pretty happy with the way things are going.
As far as exit strategy goes my plan is to sell 20% of my crypto whenever I reach 100% profits and then keep doing that.
That 20% will either go into a more conventional investment or the house depending on how things are looking.
I really enjoy setting up the bots and I'm looking at creating my own buy and sell triggers using TradingView as I'd like to have more control over my bots.
I also want to incorporate the whale-alert.io API to introduce an element of market sentiment.
But yeah, I think when it comes to crypto your best bet is little and often even if you don't use bots.
@BruceWee - finally some sense on this thread! 😉
I'm still farming various coins and like you buying in USDT and moving on from there using Pancake Swap, Gate.IO etc. It's still not bad returns at all regardless of what the media say about the Crypto space.
There is till tons of investment opportunities in this space and like most things don't believe the headlines and do your own research. I'm still HODL'ing a few coins such as BTC, ETH, BNB, SwissBorg, Enjin and Hacken. The latter two i got in super early as their white paper have current 'real world' usage and certainly Hacken are gaining more traction in the security community.
Probably like you, i should have been keener to take profits, but hey you live and learn!
....and another thing, don't listen to Elon Musk....he's a tw4t , he doesn't work in this sector and is a hypocrite so not entirely sure why people listen to him?!
Ah yes, Elon Musk who is absolutely definitely not the owner of 28% of all Dogecoin.
I forgot to mention, there are many coins I won't trade, mostly due to small market caps or a lack of historical prices.
I blacklisted Dogecoin because I see no reason to keep making that **** richer.
Micro
Easy remittance of value. This benefits the dirt poor who live hand to mouth. Volatile doesn’t matter too much as they they don’t have a lot of value to hold over any kind of significant period. using BTC lightning network – they can remit many times a day, whatever the amount for very little slippage in value – instead of Western Union once a week loosing 10%. Day to day there will be a circular economy as legal tender is not taxable.
I would say the less you have the more volatility matters as the tiny sums means the difference between feeding your family or going hungry. I would expect most farmers to mainly trade in cash and be in debt to wholesalers who provide seeds / machinery etc. Using Crypto won't make any difference to their lives and I really can't see it happening on any scale.
Macro
% of GDP expressed in USD and US monetary policy. I’m not educated in this area hence asking the question for discussion.
If you want to know the significance of something eg BC relative to a country, it's pretty simple maths. Look up their GDP, look up their Debt and the currencies its demoninated it and then ask yourself how much BC would they need to hold for it to be significant (relative to GDP / National debt etc) eg 10% might be a good starting point. Then ask yourself how would they acquire (pay for or mine) that amount of BC. It's a tiny country with a small GDP, but that also means they don't actually have much money to invest in anything. Any infrastructure investment would probably be paid for by World Bank loans who won't be sanctioning investments in Crypto any time soon. It's basically a non event, nice headline, no real substance beneath it.
The main question I keep coming back to on this is a Crypto Currency a replacement for Fiat Currencies or a Trading Instrument?
The main question I keep coming back to on this is a Crypto Currency a replacement for Fiat Currencies or a Trading Instrument?
I have absolutely no idea.
Whatever it ends up being is going to depend a lot on the what happens in the next five to ten years.
If I had to take a guess I would think that governments are going to transition to some kind of crypto currency and people will have to use it because it will be required to pay taxes. They will try to coerce people to use it but I don't think it will be the only option. I think smart contracts will start to blur the line between currency and 'goods and services'.
What I hope is going to happen is that the era of a single country controlling the global reserve currency will end and we end up with a global reserve currency that isn't controlled by a single nation or group of nations.
And yes, that global reserve currency will most likely end up being Dogecoin.
I have absolutely no idea
We were all thinking that, but thanks for confirming...
We were all thinking that, but thanks for confirming…
Yeah, my main focus at the moment is returning 1% per day.
Developing a fully thought through evidence based defense of crypto is going to take more time I'm afraid.
While we're asking impossible questions, how about this one. If the world economy suffers the worst real world economic downturn this century and stock prices still reach all time highs, does this mean that stocks are now nothing but gambling and not related to the real world at all?
It's certainly arguable that stock markets are overinflated. But it's worth noting that most markets are not at all time highs. The FTSE is well below where it was pre pandemic.
If the world economy suffers the worst real world economic downturn this century and stock prices still reach all time highs, does this mean that stocks are now nothing but gambling and not related to the real world at all?
The pandemic hasnt as yet, caused any significant kind of economic downturn.
Theres no underlying economic problem that needs correcting, just everything was paused for 12 months.
Yes the FTSE100 has increased over the past 12 months, but its just really recovered back to where it was pre pandemic.
The market dropped thinking businesses would fail and profits would tumble, but generally they havent.
Shares should be priced on the dividends which are paid back to shareholders, and values change, when people believe that companies are going to make more/less profit.
I invest £1,000 in a company and receive £50 of dividends every year. The market feels like a 5% return is reasonable for that type of company.
They could make more money next year and decide to pay out £60, and based on a 5% return those shares are now worth £1,200
The pandemic hasnt as yet, caused any significant kind of economic downturn.
That's an interesting take.
I would say that the pandemic has caused a real world economic downturn. However, instead of letting the stock markets reflect the real world and recover in line with real world recovery, unprecedented amounts of fiat have been printed and this allowed the stock prices to increase back to and even above pre-pandemic levels.
If this fiat printing bonanza had purely been in service of allowing people to survive the pandemic then your 'pause the economy' theory would have been one thing. Unfortunately, the biggest beneficiaries appear to be people who own stock and the cost is going to be borne by people who rely on salaries to pay for the goods and services they consume.
"
Ah, I see. They only run on electricity that is paid for in a particular way.
So El Salvador’s plans to become a crypto mining hub will fail because they will use bitcoin to pay for the electricity to run their servers and not fiat. Someone should let them know.
Posted 11 hours ago
Plans to use geothermal Energy, seems they are one step ahead.
https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hashtag_click
The 2nd assertion was that anyone selling anything in ES would have to start trading in BC, which isn’t how trade works.
I refer you to articles 7 and 14 of the "Bitcoin Law" of El Salvador, which say the opposite. https://freopp.org/el-salvadors-bitcoin-law-full-proposed-english-text-9a2153ad1d19
Was hoping to find some useful discussion but when the protagonists can come out with such utter shite as this it’s hard to take anything they say seriously.
Approximately 25% of the US$ in existence in the world were printed in 2020… In real terms, if you started 2020 with $1000 in your bank account, spent none of it, and earnt no interest on it, on January 1st 2021 your $1000 still in your bank account was worth 20% less than it was 12 months previously!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57507386.amp
Looks like el Salvador are running into some of them there problems* that footflaps over there said they might.
It looks like the UK are not the only ones who make financial decisions without actually making plans to make them come to fruition.
*Of course I'm sure the woke will blame the world Bank for being scared of crypto rather than there actually being issues
Yes, yes, it's going to be quite the disaster and soon the BTC price will go to $0.
Well let's be honest he never said that- or anything close.... But that sort of comment does seem to go hand in hand with the kool aid.
Well let’s be honest he never said that- or anything close…. But that sort of comment does seem to go hand in hand with the kool aid.
Yes, yes, the only people who actually know anything about crypto are the people who are fiat zealots.
El Salvador.
It's the only thing I've agreed on with footflaps on this thread. It's a huge money grab by the corrupted government. I cannot find the article I read last week but yeah it's going to end badly for the population.
It won't stop with bitcoin over there the public will swap to another coin it's going to end badly but only because of greed and corrupted government and they are as old as time nothing to do with crypto
Yes, yes, it’s going to be quite the disaster and soon the BTC price will go to $0.
I doubt BC will ever go to $0, what I said was no one would notice if it did. It's not a currency, it's a speculative asset with lots of people putting in very small amounts of money and *if* it collapsed to zero overnight, the world would carry on pretty much without noticing (bar a few Reddit forums which would go into over drive).
nothing to do with crypto
Really?
BC etc are completely unstable speculative assets and the only interest people have in them is making money as they rapidly appreciate. The irony being that very same property (rapid appreciation in value) makes them wholly unsuitable for their intended purpose, a currency.
Stable coins (those tied to a real currency) are different, but no one gets excited about those as you can't make a fast buck buying them and watching their value double overnight etc. Pretty much all real currencies depreciate over time, so you buy them and then watch your wealth very slowly decrease.
Yes, yes, fiat is invulnerable and crypto is all pretend.
I refer you to articles 7 and 14 of the “Bitcoin Law” of El Salvador, which say the opposite.
El Salvador law only applies to ES! Buying and selling into a country doesn't fall under national law. The reseller (who sits in ES under ES law) buys from another country (eg T-shirts from China) and the Chinese manuf can determine how they want to be paid eg Dollars etc.
I work for a Telecoms company and we sell all over the world, our terms are USD, it's up to the local reseller / importer to figure out how to get USD from local currency and pay us (normally via the central bank). Pretty much how all international trade works. Even when selling to operators 100x larger than us, it still works this way.
It simply couldn't work any other way we'd end up with $m in Nigerian Nira, Kanyan Shillings, etc etc, and then have the additional cost of converting them all back to USD so we can pay our suppliers. We'd then have to up our prices to hedge against 100s of currency fluctuations which would cost the reseller more etc. Basically international trade works, almost exclusively, in USD and Euros.
Yes, yes, the only people who actually know anything about crypto
It's actually very little to do with crypto and more to do with logic and evidence rather than speculation and $$$ in your eyes.
It’s actually very little to do with crypto and more to do with logic and evidence rather than speculation and $$$ in your eyes.
Yes, yes, the only possible use for crypto is for greedy people to make lots of money.
Yes, yes, the only possible use for crypto is for greedy people to make lots of money.
That is pretty much the first sensible thing you've said on this thread.
That is pretty much the first sensible thing you’ve said on this thread.
Yes, yes, you're very witty and original.
Yes, yes, you’re very witty and original.
Oh the ironing.
If nothing else the immaturity made me laugh
Yes, yes, you are very mature and superior to the vast majority of folk.
Yes, yes, fiat is invulnerable and crypto is all pretend.
Nothing in invulnerable, but fiat currencies are backed by Governments and central banks whose job it is to keep them stable etc. Crypto, by definition, has no such protection and (with the excpetion of stable coins) is completely unstable....
Why would anyone want to migrate from a stable, backed currency, to one which goes up and down like a yo yo, with no protecton etc?
Stick your money in an FSA (or equiv) approved bank account anywhere in the EU and you're protected up to 100k Euros. If you have more than that, open multiple accounts (with diff banks). Stick your money in BCs and someone swipes your wallet, you're on your own.
Why would anyone want to migrate from a stable, backed currency, to one which goes up and down like a yo yo, with no protecton etc?
Yes, yes, the only possible use for crypto is for greedy people to make lots of money.
I think brucewee nailed it.
For ES – I see it from 2 sides.
Micro
Easy remittance of value. This benefits the dirt poor who live hand to mouth. Volatile doesn’t matter too much as they they don’t have a lot of value to hold over any kind of significant period. using BTC lightning network – they can remit many times a day, whatever the amount for very little slippage in value – instead of Western Union once a week loosing 10%
As of January 2021, literally half of the population of ES don't have access to the internet,and large parts of the country - the poorest - suffers regular electricity blackouts. So it won't benefit the dirt poor but it might benefit the people who can set up businesses to help the dirt poor send and collect money via BTC/Strike. Perhaps for a 10% fee...
https://datareportal.com/reports/digital-2021-el-salvador
Blockchain - as a technology in general - undoubtedly has its uses, but my problems with crypto is that anyone can just fork off a new coin whatever they want right?
Consequently, any bet on a particular coin is to wager that somehow it will end up being the 'true' coin? In other words, it's a bet that a particular coin will have the same arbitrary qualities given to it as the fiat currencies the crypto-evangelists so disdain?!
Just my opinion, of course, but you'd be better putting your money into the lottery! 😀
Perhaps for a 10% fee…
They'll have competition at much lower rates.
If you look at Africa (I've worked a lot there, so just use it as an example), mobile banking has been very successful, you send / receive money via Text message (so you only need a 2G phone).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M-Pesa
You see it everywhere out there.
Effect on poverty in Kenya
M-Pesa is widely seen as demonstrating that it is possible to make a profit while also improving the lives of the poor.[28] Tavneet Suri, based at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and William Jack, based at Georgetown University have produced a series of papers extolling benefits of M-Pesa. In particular, their 2016 article published in "Science" has been very influential in the international development community. The much cited result of the paper was, that 'access to M-PESA increased per capita consumption levels and lifted 194,000 households, or 2% of Kenyan households, out of poverty.[29] Global development institutions focusing on the development potential of financial technology frequently cite M-Pesa as a major success story in this respect, citing the poverty-reduction-claim and including a reference to Suri and Jack’s 2016 signature article. In a report on "Financing for Development", the United Nations write: "The digitalization of finance offers new possibilities for greater financial inclusion and alignment with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and implementation of the Social Development Goals. In Kenya, the expansion of mobile money lifted two per cent of households in the country above the poverty line."[30] However, these findings on the role of M-Pesa in reducing poverty have been contested in a recent paper, arguing that Suri and Jack’s work contains so many serious errors, omissions, logical inconsistencies and flawed methodologies that it is actually correct to say that they have helped to catalyse into existence a largely false narrative surrounding the power of the fin-tech industry to advance the cause of poverty reduction and sustainable development in Africa (and elsewhere).[31]
So far there are two types of contributors on this thread. Those who have an idea about how little they know about crypto and those who have no idea know how little they know about crypto.
Arguing with those who don't know how little they know is kind of like arguing with Brexit supporters. Frustrating and pointless.
I'm sure you have your own theories about where we are in the current price cycle and why the recent drops in price haven't had the expected effect on BTC dominance but you are just keeping them to yourself.
I mean, you are aware of the price cycles being closely tied to the halving schedule, aren't you? Do you think that the current cycle has peaked or are we in the midst of an accumulation phase in a Wyckoff distribution?
Do you think the Flippening is likely in this market cycle given that BTC dominance is stuck at 40%.
BTC mining council: good thing or bad thing?
Arguing with those who don’t know how little they know is kind of like arguing with Brexit supporters. Frustrating and pointless.
Tell me about it!
Good to see we're finally starting to agree on things here. Nice to get some consensus in this thread.
Blockchain – as a technology in general – undoubtedly has its uses, but my problems with crypto is that anyone can just fork off a new coin whatever they want right?
Consequently, any bet on a particular coin is to wager that somehow it will end up being the ‘true’ coin? In other words, it’s a bet that a particular coin will have the same arbitrary qualities given to it as the fiat currencies the crypto-evangelists so disdain?!
Just my opinion, of course, but you’d be better putting your money into the lottery! 😀
See what I said about people who don't know how little they know.
Just your opinion which you are entitled to, yes, but your clearly done so little research that your opinion is worthless.
Sorry to be so harsh but it is getting a little frustrating having to explain the same thing over and over again to people who have opinions based on what is basically no knowledge whatsoever.
I'm not going to explain it to you here because, as I said, I would describe myself as knowing how little I know, but I would begin by comparing BTC and ETH and pay particular attention to the planned changes for ETH 2.0.
Then I would take a look at Cardano and Polkadot and, what are effectively their test branches, Kusama and Rune.
Then maybe we can actually have a discussion.
Tell me about it!
Good to see we’re finally starting to agree on things here. Nice to get some consensus in this thread.
I agree. Would you categorise yourself as knowing how little you know or having no idea how little you know?
I’m sure you have your own theories about where we are in the current price cycle
Nope, no interest in that whatsoever. But the belief that you can predict the future from past trends and that those trends will never change would suggest that anyone holding even a tiny amount BC will eventually end up a multi-billionaire and that BC will eventually be worth 100x more than the planet's total GDP, does seem a bit of a stetch to me.
Do you think the Flippening is likely in this market cycle given that BTC dominance is stuck at 40%.
Neither know nor care!
BTC mining council: good thing or bad thing?
If they can fundamentally change BC so mining is actually efficient eg on a par with Visa transactions then it would be a good thing for the environment. Other than that, don't really care.
Ah, so you're definitely in the category of having no idea how little you know.
Ah, so you’re definitely in the category of having no idea how little you know.
If it that makes you feel better, fill your boots!