Forum menu
It's actually snowing pretty hard here now, only a few miles from wrightyson's place. Given the warnings cover entire counties it turns out it was accurate.
Well done Metoffice.
So, the difference between snow and rain is what ? half a degree or less ?
Free weather forecasts and some people are still not happy.
Having just studied under one of the Country’s most eminent earthquake geologists, I think EQs are another good analogy: You are damned if you make a prediction that then doesn’t manifest, and you are damned if you don’t make a prediction and a catastrophe occurs. The simple [well, quite complicated, actually] fact is earthquakes are virtually impossible to predict but most people don’t understand why this is and expect the scientists to get it right every time. The weather is similar, IMO.
True ...
Not only that but the public are not interested in differentiating an after shock from a primary EQ.
It gets even more Schrodinger when very low M EQ's are considered. I did some work on recorded M1.5-M2 (on borehole geophones)... Now these are measured the public now seems to expect they should in themselves be should be predicted rather than be data for predicting something lie M3+ let alone filtering the M1.5 from a bus or train passing.
The irony perhaps being filtering out the noise would be easier if the bus and train times could actually be predicted!
How are they supposed to predict that level of local variation?
Looking at one of the amber warnings they did. They specifically state its probable that some parts will get very little snow whereas others will experience heavy snow.
I find forecasting pretty accurate, if youre planning activity from it a responsible person would have looked at a few and taken into account some variation.
Op sound like a bit of fool tbh, the sort who gets most things wrong but blames someone else.
test
I find forecasting pretty accurate, if youre planning activity from it a responsible person would have looked at a few and taken into account some variation.
Op sound like a bit of fool tbh, the sort who gets most things wrong but blames someone else.
Ya got me!
I blame everyone else.
But in this case my groundworker has cancelled a 24 m3 pour using a 60m boom which is one of only 3 in the country due to the forecast. The forecast that showed a double snow symbol with 90 percent probability under it for the early hours of this morning, coupled with an "Amber warning"
It's ****ing bone dry and sunny at the moment outside. Yes it's a free service, yes it's a forecast but **** me it's waaaay off today.
Blamers and tools keep on blaming and tooling. Cheeky ****!
Should have listened to Farmer’s forecast ...
“I can’t believe my groundworkers try turn up today after he amber warning last night, now he’s stuck in the snow with 24m3 of pour.”
Maybe the detractors of the Met should gather thier weather forecast from the Daily Express or the WhailyDaily..
They love a bit of forecasting headlines.
Don't forget, the BBC don't use the Met Office anymore.
90% chance of snow and no snow means the forecast was correct 😉
Obviously a few daily express readers in today!
and as above, BBC forecast is not from the Met office
It might not be snowing where you are now but it's absolutely battering it down in Matlock, and it might well be where your concrete pump is coming from. Sounds like they made the right call. Sounds like the amber warning is correct and you are wrong.
And it's not the end of the world, your pump will turn up next week and life will go on. I work in the construction industry and am always baffled by the way construction people think whatever they are doing is the most important thing in the world. It isn't, the building will still get built, if you have quoted properly (allowing for a few predictable delays, like stuff not happening when it snows in winter) everyone will make money and the customer will get their building.
And the met office will still be right, probably and against all odds stacked against them.
Good inch fallen here this morning and a wind that would cut you in half. We don't get our Amber warning until tomorrow though so be interesting to see how that looks. Sheep due to start lambing any second 🙂
We weren’t covered by the amber ..just yellow
Remember, don’t eat the yellow snow... 🤪
Ya got me!
I blame everyone else.
But in this case my groundworker has cancelled a 24 m3 pour using a 60m boom which is one of only 3 in the country due to the forecast. The forecast that showed a double snow symbol with 90 percent probability under it for the early hours of this morning, coupled with an “Amber warning”
It’s * bone dry and sunny at the moment outside. Yes it’s a free service, yes it’s a forecast but * me it’s waaaay off today.
Blamers and tools keep on blaming and tooling. Cheeky ****!
Even without the snow, wouldn't temperature be a factor? You can't pour concrete below certain temps (5 deg C, I believe).
wrightyson - I'm just up the way from you as you know
Clearly some snow in the night on the cars, it's been blizzarding on and off all morning. What more did you want?
Snow?
Hang on a minute, that guy Stagg who predicted the forecast for the morning of Tuesday 6 June 1944 had no access to a super computer, and i'd say he got it spectacularly spot on. I don't think he had a crystal ball either so how did he know there was going to be a break in the weather?
I bet he had a dry mouth at breakfast too.
The forecast that showed a double snow symbol with 90 percent probability under it for the early hours of this morning, coupled with an “Amber warning”
It’s * bone dry and sunny at the moment outside. Yes it’s a free service, yes it’s a forecast but * me it’s waaaay off today.
That's hardly spectacularly wrong though is it?
From the sounds of it the snow was just up the road ... and you're talking about 1 day in the year.
I use the met office app and website regularly and mostly I can turn up to ride at a certain time based on their forecast .. it's right a lot more than it's wrong and that is down to the hour or so of when it will rain or snow.
Quite often it will predict for example constant rain here and the rain stopping at a certain time just 10 miles West or East... and I go and ride, come back and find out both were correct.
when living in the uk , i always found the bbc good .
WeatherPro by Meteo Group seems pretty good to me. I use it plan my commuting, photoshoots and model plane flying. Worth paying a few quid a year for. They provide the BBC with their weather now.
Add in xcweather and windguru.cz and you're golden.
So, with 10% chance they could be wrong, but if it did happen then there would have been severe disruption. If, like the business I work in, you need a more accurate forecast for your exact location then you invariably have to pay for it. Even then we get just as many heavy cloud warnings as entirely accurate forecasts.
Your decision to cancel the work was based on the best available advice and you took a precautionary approach. All good so far. I think that was probably the best result as the consequences of you ignoring that may have been the loss of one of three appliances in the country that can do the job for you. From what I can see it was still the right decision and you get the day off in the dry to go and ride.
Win, win there 🙂
The forecast that showed a double snow symbol with 90 percent probability
...
It’s * bone dry and sunny at the moment outside. Yes it’s a free service, yes it’s a forecast but * me it’s waaaay off today.
The forecast said there was a 10% chance of no snow, and you've got no snow, so they were on the money. You know how percentages work, right?
If they'd said there was a 100% chance of snow, I'd be right there with you on your complaint.
Hang on a minute, that guy Stagg who predicted the forecast for the morning of Tuesday 6 June 1944 had no access to a super computer, and i’d say he got it spectacularly spot on. I don’t think he had a crystal ball either so how did he know there was going to be a break in the weather?
He didnt know. It was a prediction that turned out to be correct. If it wasn’t I’m pretty sure there would be a thread whinging about it.
Its usually pretty accurate for a large area. Your own experience of local conditions and ability to read a pressure chart makes it even more accurate. All forecasting compnies have been spot on since January - In Truro the other night they were accurate within an hour for rainfall over a 9 hour period.
Both Met and BBC spot on here. Snow came during the hours they predicted, and didn't snow during the break they predicted. Amazing. I love science, even when it doesn't/can't result in 100% correct predictions… it just so happens, that today, the experts got things unbelievably accurate for here. Amazing. Good skills.
I’ve always found the Met Office app to be pretty accurate, certainly better than the BBC.
Until a month or so ago, the BBC used metoffice forecasts and forecasters.
IT’S A THREEEEEEE-WAAAAAAYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!
Giggidy!
Hey, that's my line...
As eddiebaby says, Meteogroup and their mobile app WeatherProHD are really good, I’ve been using the app since it appeared in the AppStore, six or seven years ago, although I pay the yearl subscription for hourly forecasts.
Draw whatever conclusions you want, but if you’re paying attention to the Beeb telly forecasts, you’ll see MeteoGroup instead of The Met Office as weather info supplier.
Was about right on MetOffice for here in Surrey.
Anyway, surely everybody checks every single weather forecast they can find (BBC, MetO, xc, yr.no, MetCheck, Accu, ECMWF, etc, etc) until you find one that's good enough to give you hope and just go out and do what you planned anyway? Or is it just me....?
I also can't help but chuckle slightly about Yellow Snow warnings.
Just watch out where the huskies go...