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Housing bubble.
 

[Closed] Housing bubble.

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it is much cheaper as a monthly expense to have a mortgage than it is to rent around here, forgetting the price of the houses and the deposit cost.

signed disillusioned of the south east.

The house/mortgage cost pales in insignificance to that of which is decoration/maintenance/upgrades and just general refurb that your landlord used to take care of.


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:00 pm
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I'm not really looking to jump into the argument again but from some mortgage checks that myself and my partner have done a mortgage would be looking at somewhere in the region of £850-£1000 a month tops and our rent currently sits at around £1500 and I would imagine the house that the mortgage is attached to would be bigger than where we are currently.

I'm sure your house doesn't cost you £500 a month in maintenance and if it does - unlucky mate.


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:07 pm
 br
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enbern

You work for the NHS, so apply here:

Borders General Hospital.

See those hills behind (Eildons), see Strava for segments 🙂


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:10 pm
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I don't work for the NHS, my partner does - those hills look lovely and I'll point her that way 😆


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:12 pm
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Sounds like stamp duty fraud...

Sounds like a housing developer trade in / gifted deposit scheme. 8)


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:14 pm
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"I'm not really looking to jump into the argument again but from some mortgage checks that myself and my partner have done a mortgage would be looking at somewhere in the region of £850-£1000 a month tops and our rent currently sits at around £1500 and I would imagine the house that the mortgage is attached to would be bigger than where we are currently.

I'm sure your house doesn't cost you £500 a month in maintenance and if it does - unlucky mate."

In which case im back to having no sympathy - just buy a house if it makes so much financial sense ...... yesterday they were all 500k and too small ... today we can get one thats bigger than you currently have and it only costs 850-1k a month.

and yes move near BR - great riding round there - we travel down there often to ride 😀


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:16 pm
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Nothings changed - still need a huge deposit and enough of a wage to beat the 4:1 lending rule - which I don't meet so I wouldn't be lent enough money to buy one around here anyway.

I'm saying I don't want to be stuck renting forever because it would work out cheaper as a MONTHLY EXPENSE to have a mortgage vs renting.

Regardless I can see myself getting dragged back into an argument here - let's agree to disagree.

We can both agree that those hills look awesome and I bet none of us here would mind living near there.


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:23 pm
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I'm sure your house doesn't cost you £500 a month in maintenance and if it does - unlucky mate.

You

Would

Be

Amazed

Just totting up the big bills of the last 6 months probably matches your estimate for the mortgage. That is the exception rather than the rule. But it would have been a cold dark winter if the heating and electrics hadn't been done! And those bills don't include my own time in doing a lot of the work!


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:24 pm
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so for your maths to work and your monthly expense to be lower out you need to have a 300k deposit.... - also known as a whole house in much of the country.


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:27 pm
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I didn't provide any maths so there is nothing to work out.

Just totting up the big bills of the last 6 months probably matches your estimate for the mortgage. That is the exception rather than the rule. But it would have been a cold dark winter if the heating and electrics hadn't been done! And those bills don't include my own time in doing a lot of the work!

As I said - unlucky mate. My parents house hasn't had anything go wrong or any unexpected expense besides a new washing machine in 10 years - British Gas insurance covers the boiler at £9.99 a month, sounds like it would be ideal for you?

EDIT: As a quick edit as well - if what is being said is true and it's costing you £1000 a month in repairs it only compounds my argument further that it's absurd how much housing costs in London/SE - I'd also love to know how my landlord is paying his mortgage if he's only making 500 quid off me each month.


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 5:50 pm
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The house/mortgage cost pales in insignificance to that of which is decoration/maintenance/upgrades and just general refurb that your landlord used to take care of.

Yes but when you add in the value of your asset after 25 years...


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 6:45 pm
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Yes but when you add in the value of your asset after 25 years...

And what happens if prices don't go up like they have done in the past?

All the baby boomers will be selling up over the next 10-15 years to either fund their nursing home care or to release the equity to either use as their pension or give to their kids so they can buy their own place...

Prices are only going up at the moment because a) a tidal wave of corrupt foreign money has poured into London from 2012 onwards b) repeated government subsidies from 2013 onwards to stop the market from crashing. Neither of these things will go on forever.
Osborne has already realised that he'll fail to get the vote of the under 40s in 5 years time if they're still renting and unable to start a family...
He also realises that in 10 years time, the MPs in Parliament will be the generation that are currently priced out of housing and their agenda around house prices is likely to be different from the current one given their current experience.. by all accounts they're already learning the lessons their idiot parents forgot about living a life in debt...

The idea that UK house prices will always and forever go up is largely one based on experience of the last 20 years since we forgot about the 1989 bust. It's more akin to a religious belief than a fact/data-driven view which is why it's so damn hard to get people who believe it to think differently!


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 8:12 pm
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And what happens if prices don't go up like they have done in the past?

Doesn't matter. You still have an asset, assuming you've got a repayment mortgage. Even if prices drop to 10% of their 2007 value I've still got a house worth £25k. If I'd rented I'd have nothing.


 
Posted : 17/02/2016 8:34 pm
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it is much cheaper as a monthly expense to have a mortgage than it is to rent around here, forgetting the price of the houses and the deposit cost.

But thats like saying buying a £100k Porsche with a £99k deposit is cheaper than buying a £15k Fiesta with no deposit.

You can't 'forget' the deposit bit really. Or the stamp duty. Or the solicitors fees. Or the mortgage fee etc. - people with mortgage have had to 'pay' these costs as well.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 2:59 pm
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Even if prices drop to 10% of their 2007 value I've still got a house worth £25k. If I'd rented I'd have nothing.

So, you think if the proposition to first time buyers was 'take out this massive loan and in 10 years time you'll have a house worth only 10% of that loan, with most of it still to pay back' - that people would be buying 😯

In any case you wouldn't have a house worth anything - you'd be living in a house owned by the bank and a massive amount of debt to pay off!

Like I said - quasi-religious-belief type irrationality underpins the UK housing market, not rationale assessment, if that's the best business case you can come up with!

Ever watched Life of Brian? They had a field day with this kind of thinking...


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 3:04 pm
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as i say every time broess ... you have to live somewhere - dont forget that part - bit like the empty flat analogy you used the other day.

I have enough equity in my place now after 4 years of just paying the same as my rent would have been(which is a significant overpayment on my mortgage) that property prices would have to come down to a level that would have keys being lobbed back at mortgage co's left right and centre by the short sighted.

and your other point about 1989... remember the average person forgets after 7 years. I reckon thats why since 1975 the oil industry has pretty much been an 8 year boom bust cycle....


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 3:09 pm
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Given up on the online value calculators - can't get a number that's anywhere near them agreeing with each other.

Estate agent coming round tomorrow...


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 3:20 pm
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as i say every time broess ... you have to live somewhere - dont forget that part - bit like the empty flat analogy you used the other day.

The religious belief I'm referring to isn't any rent/mortgage comparison, it's the 'ever rising prices' thing.

London shot up in 2013 because of a wave of dirty foreign money and the introduction of government subsidy (Help to buy) + BTL becoming suddenly very popular (probably a combination of zero interest rates, dire pension returns and QE trying to find a home), NOT because of a massive and sudden increase in demand. Prices were dead flat 2008 - 2012 - and shot up in Q3 2013 for no apparent reason... 20% within a matter of weeks in my personal experience in SE26.

the bubble is now spreading out of London as people like me and wotsit on the estate agent thread bail out - in his case to take his cash and move north, in my case, the desperate hope I won't be paying rent out of my pension...

This combination of sources of £££ will not continue ad infinitum for the next 25 years! Read the FT and Economist and look at the very serious concerns about global asset bubbles and the global economy for some perspective...


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 3:48 pm
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wotsit on the estate agent thread bail out - in his case to take his cash and move north,

North? Are you mad?


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 3:57 pm
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North? Are you mad?

i think he means Finsbury borders.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 4:00 pm
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nor am i - im referring to the choice of remaining in rented property in fear of the property market crashing.

4 years(you were looking at the same time as me i remember) you have been waiting - where as that 4 years of rent has paid off 1/4 of the capital of my house.

Mean while ive had the security of living where i want to live and no fear of being lobbed out - and i can write in crayon on the wall if i wish.

house is a home not an investment and all that pish.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 4:12 pm
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The religious belief I'm referring to isn't any rent/mortgage comparison, it's the 'ever rising prices' thing.

Thing is if over a long period of time they have been ever rising. Which isn't a massive surprise when demand outstrips supply. For a period of sustained price fall then the UK would have to be subject to a big financial shock. Saying that as the commodities price collapses, then London will experience a slowing and possible slight reversal of prices, which with time will wash out over the UK. But a big re-adjustment then I can't see that happening without a 'shock' event that can't easily be predicted.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 4:24 pm
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+1 to Trail_Rats post above.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 4:26 pm
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the bubble is now spreading out of London as people like me and wotsit on the estate agent thread bail out - in his case to take his cash and move north, in my case, the desperate hope I won't be paying rent out of my pension...

'The Bubble' - 2016. *****

2,567,987 hours / Horror / 19 February 2016

Director: Paul Greengrass

Synopsis: A huge influx of dirty foreign money into London eventually coalesces into an enormous, formless ectomorphic bubble, which consumes everything in its path. After engulfing inner city London and turning most of its inhabitants into propertyless goo without mortgage potential, the bubble expands to the edge of the M25 where it seems, momentarily to be contained.

Only the fearless hero Brooess can see the truth, that the bubble is a threat to the very survival of earth, the universe and everything, Will anyone listen or will Hertfordshire be next?


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 4:39 pm
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4 years(you were looking at the same time as me i remember) you have been waiting - where as that 4 years of rent has paid off 1/4 of the capital of my house.

You're making massive (wrong) assumptions about my personal financial and employment circumstances actually... trust me, if I could have bought in 2013 (2, not 4 years ago) I would have done but for various reasons, I wasn't able to get a mortgage at that time. Obviously if I'd known Osborne was going to create hyper inflation I would have bought earlier!

BWD - thanks for the ad hominem. It's very childish, trying to score points with a stranger on the internet, given the very real damage being done...

My point is not so much about my own situation (in actual fact I'm more financially secure than I ever thought I would be at this age) but about the UK economy and the impact on it from all the money being sucked into the banks or to already wealthy people as mortgage and rent payments instead of being spent in job-creating consumption and investment... and also the insidious impact it has on our appetite for hard work and entrepreneurialism if it's easier to just sit at home and 'get rich'... Gordon Brown and Osbourne know us better than we know ourselves, it seems

Do some wider reading - FT and Economist for e.g. and look at the readers' comments on house price stories if you want to get a feeling for the wider sentiment (ie: not mine) - in particular whether the millenials who you'll be hoping to sell your house to are willing to play the game...


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 6:21 pm
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" in particular whether the millenials who you'll be hoping to sell your house to are willing to play the game..."

ill either be dead or moving into a house thats decreased in value by a similar proportion to my own.....

could have sworn you were posting about looking at flats in london vs houses outside when i bought 4 years ago obviously i was wrong , i didnt go do my due diligence and supply my reference's 😀

but my point still stands.

The only benefit of renting i can see is workforce mobility.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 6:47 pm
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BWD - thanks for the ad hominem. It's very childish, trying to score points with a stranger on the internet, given the very real damage being done...

Sorry if you took offence. Here's the thing, you seem fixated on the economy in a slightly unhealthy way. You loop endlessly on here over something that you have only minimal control over. You also assume that everyone else is some sort of blithering moron who thinks that everything in the garden is lovely.

In reality most of us, I suspect, have serious misgivings over the economy, the government, the lunacy of the property bubble etc, but choose to make decisions over the stuff we have some control over rather than obsessing over stuff we cannot change. You seem to mistake this for ignorance or indifference, where I think mostly people are making a choice to live their lives within parameters they do have some control over rather than railing in a futile way over things they cannot influence.


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 7:15 pm
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wise words BWD

[img] http://pierofalci.com/blog/2014/05/11/just-for-today-i-will-not-worry/dala-lama-do-not-worry/ [/img]

there are a couple of often trotted out sayings in my office one "is if you can change the outcome - worry about it and change the outcome. If you cannot change the outcome - dont worry about it. "

the other is

"shit happens"


 
Posted : 19/02/2016 7:33 pm
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