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Its certain it is going to happen. It may be opinion but its one backed by good science.
Fair enough @BruceWee, I stand corrected. Having contempt for everyone is commendably inclusive 👍
I have lived my life in as low impact a way as I can. No car, no kids, no pets. I vote green and support the party.
And yet it's had almost no impact. Climate change will not be solved by virtue signalling and individual action. It'll be solved/mitigated by the coordinated action of major govts supported the scientific and engineering sectors. When your average Joe in the street recognises the problem and accepts the need for action, the politicians will have all the motivation they need to do what is required, and we're really not far from that. Once that occurs then action will accelerate and we'll see exponential growth in technology and societal change required to avoid the worst case scenario.
I’m doing whatever I can to redeem my race/gender, no matter how small my contribution might be.
That would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
I agree Dazh - my individual actions will make little difference and even my lifestyle is unsustainable. I have been doing what I can however
As for the second part of your answer. There is no government anywhere in the world taking the steps needed. there is no technological solution and we are nowhere near enough folk taking this seriously.
Major radical steps now will mitigate the climate crisis but it will still happen - but there is no sign of any political will worldwide to take the radical steps needed. By the time the food and water shortages hit "the west" enough that people will demand action its going to be too late.
We have known this is coming for 30+ years. No serious action has been taken or is mooted.
you know that billions of humans in the last 200,000 years have died on the planet already, right?
Yeah, but there are more people alive right now than have ever lived before. So, the number of people that have already died is less than the number of people alive right now.
Anyone who has any knowledge of population Vs resource curves in nature can take a good guess at what's coming.
tj, not disagreeing with anything you've written. The inevitable conclusion though is what's the point of even trying to do anything about it on a personal level. It's too little, too late, we are all going to hell in a handcart. Might as well enjoy the ride and stop worrying about something we have zero control over and carry on over consuming etc.
I'm being a little flippant, but laying on the doom too thick, however much you believe it to be true just switches people off to even trying to do something about it.
Yeah, but there are more people alive right now than have ever lived before
And population growth has already fallen off a cliff, and is forecast to be negative by 2100 becasue less children are dying, more women enter and stay in education (the single most effective way of reducing the birth rate) and teenaged pregnancies are falling all over the world.
There is no government anywhere in the world taking the steps needed.
And yet all the worlds governments are currently attending a global conference trying to figure out what and how to do it. Granted it's a very imperfect process and subject to influence from malign actors (see the story yesterday about the meat industry lobbying COP28) but at least it's happening.
there is no technological solution and we are nowhere near enough folk taking this seriously.
The technological solutions already exist. See the enormous growth in renewables and transition of infrastructure away from fossil fuels. Again much more action is required but it's changing and it will accelerate. This is one area where we can be very optimistic.
but there is no sign of any political will worldwide to take the radical steps needed.
There is enormous political will in all the major economies, but it's held back by basic need to bring the people with them. Governments know what is required, but they can't take action without the support of the people they govern, otherwise it risks going the other way. It's a delicate balancing act.
In fact it's easy to argue that the rise of the far right and reactionary forces is a result of governments going too far too quickly. The UK and US elections will be good indicators of where the public are on the climate issue, and there are positive signs that they'll choose parties who support more action on climate (at least in the UK).
blokeuptheroad - yes - we have reached that point.
Nickc -
https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth
The wave that is now hitting it's 60s is the problem. They started voting in their own interests in the 80s and have been doing so ever since.
In theory the next two waves should be taking over now but there is literally no one for them to vote for. Every policy is geared towards the top wave so it becomes a negative feedback loop. Young people have nothing to vote for so they don't vote. So the main parties gear themselves towards the top wave even more which leaves even less for the next wave to vote for.
I don't think we've hit peak humanity. I think we are living through the hangover that a bulge in demographics caused.
It's not so much that boomers/Gen-X are the worst generations ever. It's more that governments have been trying to please a small section of society's age distribution for the last 40 years. Ultimately that's always going to harm society as a whole.
As I said, I believe things are going to start improving over the next 20 years or so. Hopefully the damage won't be too severe although that is a bit of a forlorn hope, I fear.
blokeuptheroad – yes – we have reached that point.
Really? You're content for us all to just completely give up on any efforts to reduce our individual environmental impact because it's pointless?
You are kidding yourself dazh or fail to understand the gravity of the situation
COP has achieved nothing significant and those technological things you mention may slow the rate a tiny amount but all involve using energy and thus increasing climate change gases. the only answer is to use much less energy worldwide and that means major cuts in our western lifestyles
Its radical change that is needed and there is zero political will worldwide to do the radical change. COP is about pretending they are doing something while doing nothing of any significance. The pretense is that climate change can be dealt with without major lifestyle change in the west.
See that purple line? (from your source)
Really? You’re content for us all to just completely give up on any efforts to reduce our individual environmental impact because it’s pointless?
No - I am agreeing with you that we have reached a point where many folk think that.
Weather is fine. I don't care about what's happening in a middle east sandpit thousands of miles away. My pension is rising nicely and I've just bought a 6.5k ebike.
No worries from me thanks.
Growth decreasing is not the same as world population decreasing. Its a reduction in the rate of growth World population is still increasing
Growth decreasing is not the same as world population decreasing. Its a reduction in the rate of growth World population is still increasing
It is, for now. But it won't keep increasing forever. The UN and just about every other population expert predict that the world population will peak at around 11 billion towards the end of the century and will flatline thereafter. Birthrates are falling everywhere, including in developing countries. 11 billion is a huge figure, but the fact that it won't keep growing exponentially is significant.
You are kidding yourself dazh or fail to understand the gravity of the situation
I'm really not. I am more aware than most of the gravity of the situation, but I'm also aware that humans are extremely good at achieving enormous and rapid change when the need arises. It may seem to you that this problem is intractable, but it really isn't. I'm actually suprised at how far along we are as a global society in tackling this problem and how quickly things are changing. 10 years ago China was the climate villain due to its exponentially growing coal use, yet now they generate more renewable energy than the rest of the world put together - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/29/china-wind-solar-power-global-renewable-energy-leader. It needs much more action of course but on energy generation the radical and rapid change you say is impossible has actually happened, and it will improve further.
Also see the rise in battery powered electric vehicles. Yes they have their problems and may not be the long term solution, but it's a positive sign that things are changing at a macro-economic level.
I’m actually suprised at how far along we are as a global society in tackling this problem and how quickly things are changing
BP have said recently that they think that oil sales will never recover to their pre-pandemic rates, and a couple of others have made the future business plans around the idea that sales hit maximum in 2019 and are only going to decline from now on.
No – I am agreeing with you that we have reached a point where many folk think that.
But (correct me if I'm wrong) you do also seem to think individual action is ineffective and pointless?
Dazh - a tiny drop in the ocean. Thats the problem. Its a tiny % of what is needed
Until the west accepts that we need to make major changes in our lifestyles then global warming will increase and continue to do so. the pretense that we in the west can continue with our lifestyles is the major stumbling block
Electric cars is a great example - they make no real difference to reductions in fossil fuel usage. The answer is not eletric cars, its stopping moving folk around in 2 tonne boxes per person
NO bloke up the road. I think individual action is needed but I do not kid myself its going to make a significant difference
Until the west accepts that we need to make major changes in our lifestyles then global warming will increase and continue to do so. the pretense that we in the west can continue with our lifestyles is the major stumbling block
But the west already accepts that lifestyles need to change. If we didn't then people wouldn't be buying electric cars and there wouldn't be significant numbers of people flying less, eating less meat and being more conscious of their own impact. Obviously it's nowhere near enough but you can't make radical changes until you make small changes, and the direction of travel is pretty obvious. I think you're allowing yourself to be blinded by reactionary voices who shout and complain much louder than than the amount of support they have.
Yeah, but there are more people alive right now than have ever lived before. So, the number of people that have already died is less than the number of people alive right now.
This isnt true as far as I can tell btw
Yeah, but there are more people alive right now than have ever lived before. So, the number of people that have already died is less than the number of people alive right now.
Anyone who has any knowledge of population Vs resource curves in nature can take a good guess at what’s coming.
It's estimated around 100 billion people have died to date, there's approx 7 billion alive currently.
No Dazh - I understand the scale of the problem. You clearly do not
electric cars are not a lifestyle change. The change needed is to stop moving people around in such a energy intensive way both by reducing the amount they move around and when its necessary do it in a much less energy intensive way. It that statement you merely back up what I say - the west will not make the lifestyle changes needed. Instead of stopping the use of private cars they pretend that electric cars are the same as no cars
In a nutshell you make my argument. these tiny changes will make no difference.to climate change and there is no political will
Another side of this is we need to lock up more carbon in plants. last COP introduced targets for this and for improving nature and biodiversity generally. Not one country has met this target.
to even mitigate the worst effects of climate change we need huge reductions in energy usage now. Not one country has a plan to do so. I'm not talking about a few % but in the west it needs major change not fiddling around the edges
I am afraid you believe the greenwash that these things like electric cars make a significant difference - they do not
I came back in here to recommend the works and videos of Hans Rosling on this matter, but feel I must object in the strongest terms to Gen X being lumped in with the Boomers!
One of the biggest hurdles to overcome in any mindset shift is the 40 hour work week.
Making people cash rich (well, relatively) but time poor means that consumerism is always going to be pushed into overdrive.
Another thing to consider, probably contentious and possibly for another thread is universal basic income.
The change needed is to stop moving people around in such a energy intensive way both by reducing the amount they move around and when its necessary do it in a much less energy intensive way.
TJ have you been keeping up with the news? See the reaction to the Oxford traffic calming measures and all the conspiracy nonsense that it generated? See the rise of the far right across the western world? Do you think there's any connection between the two? Your absolutist and primitivist approach to this is exactly the thing that will ensure failure. If you go out there and tell everyone that they have to stay in their homes/streets/districts, not go on holiday, not eat certain things etc then all they will do is vote for the people who will still allow them to do those things. Same goes for telling everyone we're all doomed, because doomed people do stupid things and lose any sense of responsibility or consequence. There is only one way to approach this problem if we're serious about solving it, and that's the approach that's currently being pursued.
The bottom line is that action on climate change will come to nothing if you can't get the majority of normal people to support it. And they will only support it if the impact on their lives is as limited as it can be, and aligned with the impact on those who are richer than them. Lecturing people about how evil and destructive they are might be cathartic to those like yourself who are able to take the moral high ground, but it's self-defeating. Maybe have a go at understanding others rather than preaching at them?
I must object in the strongest terms to Gen X being lumped in with the Boomers
Split loyalties here. Depending on whose definition we are using I could be in either camp. We are all right wing, climate change deniers and absolute bastards apparently, so it's probably not worth sweating over the difference.
Hans Rosling does (did) rock though 👍
There is only one way to approach this problem if we’re serious about solving it, and that’s the approach that’s currently being pursued.
Which is not going to work. Its not even touching the problems at all. Its a recipe for billions to die. There is zero chance of our current approach doing anything significant to stop climate change. Its nothing close to a serious attempt.
I understand your point but pretending that these minuscule measures will actually achieve anything significant is the problem. Not understand the seriousness of the issue is the problem. It would help if governments would stop the pretense and laid out the reality starkly
that leaves us with the fact that there is not the will to make the changes needed so billions will die. Yes its a position of despair but I have been arguing this stuff for decades and seen no change in attitudes at all, no significant progress and no political will Your position is also one of despair in that it mean billions will die as you are saying nothing can be done, the eco collapse is inevitable
It would help if governments would stop the pretense and laid out the reality starkly
You're joking aren't you? Barely a day goes by when people aren't reminded about the stark reality. Catastrophe fatigue is absolutely a thing. Governments and environmentalists would be better served if they shut up for a while and got on with the serious business of solving it rather than spending all their time telling us everyone's going to die and we'll all deserve it.
Split loyalties here. Depending on whose definition we are using I could be in either camp. We are all right wing, climate change deniers and absolute bastards apparently, so it’s probably not worth sweating over the difference.
GenX/Millenial here.
Like I said earlier, the problem is that politicians have been targeting boomers and older GenXers since the 80s. To the point that anyone under the age of 45 can be safely ignored by all major political parties. The result of being ignored is that fewer young people vote which means they are just ignored harder. A vicious cycle, if ever there was one.
Sorry if it hurts your feelings. But it's not even like your generation is fundamentally evil. It's just that throughout your life your vote has been courted and this is the end result. And being right in one of those dips between waves, no one has ever given a shit about my vote.
It's sad to say, but once the boomers/GenXers start to depart the voter pool and the current generation of kids starts voting (assuming there will actually be someone for them to vote for by then) we'll finally start to see some significant changes. Or at least I hope we will.
This entire thread has an end of days feel to it. I'm just here to say don't worry, it's all your fault and once you're gone everything will be fine 😉
You’re joking aren’t you? Barely a day goes by when people aren’t reminded about the stark reality.
I have never seen any announcements from any government that outline how serious this is. You seem unable to grasp how serious it is and your position is not one that will prevent the mega deaths coming.
So we both reach the same conclusion that nothing can be done. Just starting from different points
I’m just here to say don’t worry, it’s all your fault and once you’re gone everything will be fine 😉
Have you been speaking to my missus? Being told I'm not 'fundamentally evil' is the nicest thing anyone has said to me today. Thanks 🙂
It's hard to know what will happen, have we reached tipping point with little chance of recovery or is there a new hope for us all just round the corner?
Water, food, transport and electricity all seem key to our continued existence, lifestyle and welfare (based on current or even higher predicted population) so these are the primary areas that should be focused on for me and ones that shouldn't be in the hands of capitalism. If the world pulls together and pours resources into sustainably stabilising these then I don't see why we can't easily further advance and progress as a species. If left in the hands of current political and commercial bodies then I fear TJs predictions will occur.
You seem unable to grasp how serious it is
With respect TJ You keep saying this to various posters who've told you that they understand how serious it is, and only differ from you in that they're not utterly defeatist. Either accept that others understand it but have a different perspective of how to solve the single biggest issue facing the global population, or STFU. You're not the only one who's opinion counts.
So we both reach the same conclusion that nothing can be done
I know I keep coming back to this tj, but if you really believe that is true, what harm is there in all of us just saying '**** it' and going on one massive bender and orgy of consumption. I can see you driving around Edinburgh in a massive V8 Hummer, absolutely no reason not to treat yourself really 😉
BruceWeeFull Member
It’s sad to say, but once the boomers/GenXers start to depart the voter pool and the current generation of kids starts voting (assuming there will actually be someone for them to vote for by then) we’ll finally start to see some significant changes. Or at least I hope we will.
It feels like lumping in GenX with the Boomers in this way is a recent thing. Until recently I only recall Boomers as being a target of this sort of criticism. If it got mentioned at all GenX was generally commented as feeling a bit forgotten in the middle of the culture war apparently going on between the Boomers and Millennials.
For me this does tend to leave me suspicious that it isn't as much about specific generations being in the right or wrong, but on average most people get more complacent and resistant to change. Millennials thinking that things will improve when they're in charge may discover that the Millennials who end up with their hands on the levers of power aren't that different from the GenXers and Boomers who also ended up with power. I expect that plenty of GenXers are unhappy that Sunak, Gove and Rhys-Mogg are amongst the representatives of their (our) generation who've made it to high office.
Also the implication that anyone over 45 is an older GenXer is a bit odd. As far as I know GenX tends to be pegged as those born between 1965 and 1980, so even many younger GenXers are 45 or older now.
Nickc
Do you think the measures promoted by COP will actually make a significant difference? 1.4 C is here. 1.5 is baked in ( and that means increasing droughts and severe weather events). 2 is almost certain, 3 degrees is likely
What is being done and suggested by governments and COP are far to little to actually make a significant difference IMO
So the options are 1) carry on as we are and the eco collapse is coming. 2)radical action or 3)give up and the eco collapse comes 5 years earlier thanoptuion 1
I prefer option 2 as its the only one that has a hope of saving the human population
I strongly believe that anyone who thinks that COP will achieve anything does not understand the scale of the issue, that electric cars will make a significant difference does not understand the seriousness of the situation and who thinks that we can even mitigate climate change without radical lifestyle change in the west has no real grasp of the crisis that is coming
Its either we take radical action now or billions will die and no one on the planet will have a lifestyle anything like ours now
I am not defeatist in that I know there is a way out.
For me this does tend to leave me suspicious that it isn’t as much about specific generations being in the right or wrong, but on average most people get more complacent and resistant to change. Millennials thinking that things will improve when they’re in charge may discover that the Millennials who end up with their hands on the levers of power aren’t that different from the GenXers and Boomers who also ended up with power.
I don't think any single generation is going to have voting control the way the current GenX/boomer generation has/had.
For their entire lives they have been the largest segment of society and therefore society has naturally shaped itself to their wishes. Not intentionally, just as the natural result of voting patterns. It is only in the last couple of years you can see the distribution has finally evened out across the spectrum (still with some peaks but a generally good distribution). And like I said, political parties targeting them and not younger voters just meant more alienation from the voting process and even more targeting in a vicious circle.
Millennials are never going to have that kind of block voting power. And that's a good thing. Society should work in favour of everyone and ideally mostly in favour of the younger generations. They are the ones who are going to have to deal with the consequences, after all.