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So we have our new PM in place and it's a countdown to her pressing the button. But when do you think it's going to happen? I'm going for September 16th 2016.
01/07/1901
They'll have to repeal the European Communities Act (1972) first, so I suppose it will depend on how long it takes to get through Parliament
I bet we end up eating humble pie.
No exit will happen.
Hopefully.
Never.
U-turn within a year.
Protracted discussions and inquiries, getting increasingly boring, at the same time as the EU make some changes which they will claim are informed by the Brexit debate and similar feelings throughout Europe, rather than be concessions to keep us in.
We'll be able to point to them and say the balance has shifted, it was tight before the referendum, levels of misinformation hand been realised and reflected upon. Leavers have the best concessions available on the points they were unhappy about, we can't improve our position as a country further by leaving. Thanks for your input.
Boris will be able to revive his career saying that "No for a Better Yes" was always his position, that now we have that better Yes; he's proud of his work in standing up to the EU, proud of the country for standing up for what they care about.
Can she do anything before September 5th?
15/01/2017
This year I reckon.
She's quoted as saying not before the end of the year ...[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36772359 ]BBC[/url]
And wants informal talks with eu leaders..
Hopefully this fiasco will continue until everyone who wants out loses the will to care and nothing will happen.
I reckon the last Friday of the last session before their Xmas break. Then they can get pissed over Xmas and face the music in the New Year
Hopefully this fiasco will continue until everyone who wants out loses the will to [s]care[/s]live and we will suddenly have no more lack of jobs, housing shortage, scroungers and have space to take in more immigrants fleeing war and poverty.
I'm in an angry mood today 😉
OP to leave the EU in Sep 2016 we'd have to repeal the act of Parliament which took us in. If we use Artcile 50 and triggered it tomorrow exit would be 14 July 2018 ... as a side note I think the French quite like 14 July as their day 😉
My guess 31 Dec 2019
Wait till after French and German elections next year then trigger Article 50 once we have spoken to new leaders (definitely not Holalnde and possibly not Merkel)
@Jamby - Wot no Angela?
Word from cabinet Office is that we are talking 10 years worth of work to get the our of Europe. Although wouldn't rule out the politicals picking an arbitrary date and expecting the civil service to meet it
@Jamby - Wot no Angela
I think its a possibility, a couple of years ago I would have said no way will she stand down but supposedly 50% of people don't want her to stand again post the handling of eurozone crises and Refugees.
My guess 31 Dec 2019
they'll take us to war with someone, anyone, (probably Russia so that they can say 'I told you so' about Trident) before then and brexit will either be stalled for a few more years or rushed through when no-ones looking with the shadiest of shady shenanigans going on
About a week before the EU offers Nissan and Honda massive tax breaks and subsidies to relocate to Spain to bail out their economy.
When's the next election?
As sure as Keith Vaz knows exactly which Select Committees have the best biscuit selection, it will be 'unavoidably' drawn out until the next term, possibily the one after that, untill all the grumpy old outie voters have passed on to kipper heaven.....
01/01/1970
27/9/2016
I don't like it but can't imagine it isn't going to happen, particularly with the euro sceptic cabinet that is being put together. 15/01/2017
I think the real question is when will 'free movement of workers' end.
We could invoke article 50 within months, join the EEA and negotiate trade deals over the course of 10 years before breaking away further, though it would be very expensive.
Swamp boy - don't know about Honda, but I suspect no particular deals would need to be cut for Renault Nissan to increase French production and decrease Sunderland product of what is essentially the same car. I am informed by folk at Nissan Subpnderland that the Juke at least is going to be split between UK and France because the costs were very similar and any tariff on Uk imports would up French production.
Jamba - you may actually be talking sense, but it is still up for legal grabs as to whether A50 can bad triggered without a parliamentary vote given prerogative powers are not normally allowed to cut across statute, and at present it is far from definite that a parliamentary vote would go through. If parliament voted against A50 a general election might be expected next I guess, to either return a parliament that would vote it through or a parliament with a mandate not to vote it through.
Apart from that I probably agree with you.
So fun and games whatever.
Swamp boy - don't know about Honda, but I suspect no particular deals would need to be cut for Renault Nissan to increase French production and decrease Sunderland product of what is essentially the same car. I am informed by folk at Nissan Subpnderland that the Juke at least is going to be split between UK and France because the costs were very similar and any tariff on Uk imports would up French production.
Only from the next Juke, current one will be Sunderland only.
They wouldn't move to Spain, Nissan already has a plant in Barcelona and it has looked to offload that in the past as it is very inefficient.
igm - MemberSo [s]fun and games[/s] [i]a massive waste of time and money[/i] whatever.
FIFY 😉
29th February 2019
I think the real question is when will 'free movement of workers' end.
It won't and a lot of "leavers" who think it will magically impact on immigration are going to find themselves somewhat disappointed. Still "we've taken back control".
I was just chatting to a colleague who is Spanish. She was suggesting that there are lots of grumbling in Spain, from politicians, who are already suggesting that non-union property ownership in Spain will be taxed and governed differently....
I think we have little to offer in negotiation, and everything to lose - and the EU member countries know it.
Will Herr Merkal and gang actually want to do us a favour? hmmmmm
the whole thing will turn out to have be a bad dream and we will wake up to "business as usual"
Will Herr Merkal and gang actually want to do us a favour? hmmmmm
I imagine shes probably our best friend in Europe right now, if she were to get the boot as Jambs would like I fear we'd be left at the whim of the likes of Junker etc
David Davies says December 2018 according to evening standard, so must be planning on a50 later this year
How much of that is trying to appease the rabid europhobes in the Tory party is up for debate
2 years seems an incredibly short period to get a good deal out of it, time stock up on tinned goods and candles
Possibly never looking at this now...
[url= http://www.itv.com/news/update/2016-07-15/theresa-may-article-50-will-not-be-brought-forward/ ]itv news[/url]
So which is more important, a lousy [s]£350M[/s][s]£170M[/s]£2.50 per week from the EU, or keeping the United Kingdom united?