[Closed] Greece and the Euro - Is it finally gonna blow?

It is the reason for the problem.

But it's not the solution.

We're too far down the road. I see the solution as being a simple right off of negative equity by the banks and property being revalued. Don't see the banks agreeing mind. 😆

Inbred456 - Member
My humble guess is that they are already printing and minting the new drachma and the banks are getting ready for when Greece leaves the Euro. The sad thing is I can see us sending food parcels to Greece before this is over. Politicians eh don't you just love em!

Stupid question probably but if Greece leaves the Euro, what happens to money they owe, bailouts etc? Debt converted to Drachma? Written off?

The US deosn't have fiscal union. Check out sales tax and property taxes in the various states.

The problem is the high interest rates poor eurolands pay, the solution is eruobonds. The UK would have similar difficulties to Greece if interest rates were as high.

The US deosn't have fiscal union.

Oh ok, I'll tip off the Wall Street Journal - someone should let them know.

[url= http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204844504577098174205793262.html ]The Ties That Bond—and Don't[/url]

Quote :

[i]"The U.S. has a fiscal union. Through Washington, money moves from taxpayers in Connecticut to the unemployed in California with less uproar than money goes from Germany to Greece."[/i]

erm.....I think the US does have fiscal union - its called the Federal Reserve.

Interesting chatter on the news last night, Euro exit, Drachma to be reintroduced so that pensions and salaries can at least be paid but they keep paying the money they owe to the ECB/IMF in EUR. That would need another huge write-off of the principal but at least the capital markets would be open to them at some point down the line.

Edukator, I think you are referring to a uniform fiscal regime ie, the same rates if tax, whereas Ernie is referring to a union that allows fiscal transfers between states. For such a thing to happen in europe, germany etc would have to sanction greater transfers to nations they see as profligate. This is politically very unpopular.

Interesting artical in today's FT by Arvind Subramanian on how Greece could actually benefit from a devaluation after the two year hit and become the envy of the rest of Europe. Draws on experience from other countries and is a good article.

Educator, and the reason for the high interest rates is?

Have we considered the humanitarian aspect of this crisis? How will europe cope with millions of destitute Greeks crossing the borderless EU in the hope of some sort of relief?

ohnohesback - Member

Have we considered the humanitarian aspect of this crisis? How will europe cope with millions of destitute Greeks crossing the borderless EU in the hope of some sort of relief?

They are Greeks! ... the people who gives us Western civilisation so at least put them to hard labour. 🙄

Cheaper kebabs as competition throughout Europe's high streets hots up. Chilli Sauce?

Its a part of the single market - free movement of goods and people - once Germany is full it won't be so rich anymore. Lets all go and be germans.

So when the rest of the EU invokes force majoure to suspend Shenghen, ther'll be quite a shaking of the political underpinning of the EU...

The Greeks here in our our offices are properly humiliated by this and are grasping at straws, blaming the Germans and their own politicians. What infuriates me is the Panglossian "oh everything will be alright" attitude from pro-Europeans. We have our own problems but at least they're of our own making.

The book 'Boomerang' by Michael Lewis looks at the European financial crisis in some detail. ('The Big Short' focuses on Wall Street). It includes an interesting account of the Greek tendency to blame everyone else, Germans in particular, for the massive debt accumulated by Greek people. And it was mostly Greek people - individuals or small/medium companies - rather than institutions - taking all the debt on.

I find your post interesting because it seems to support the argument of the book. Apparently Greek activists are fond of the old 'turd-in-the-post' protest when it comes to the Germans enforcing a bit of discipline.

When the boot was on the other foot .................

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/jun/21/germany-greece-greek-debt-crisis

still seems to be working for the germans

[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-18068747 ]despite all their woes the germans posted 0.5% growth and eurozone 0.2%[/url]

so how come UK plc is still doing so pants?

so how come UK plc is still doing so pants?

You need to ask?

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Really binners? Havent we been "living beyond our means"? Have a look at the defecit Labour left compared to the rest of the G20. Brown and Balls stuck us in a proper hole.

mcboos right, we are in dire straights only several generations of upper class inbreeding can save us now

osborne ftw ! 😉

aaaaaaand more personal abuse. my kids go to a fee paying school, I'd love to get them into St Pauls, where Osborne (and Harriet Harman) went. Does that mean they are going to be contemptable people kimbers? Me too?

aaaaaaand more personal abuse.

Has something been deleted or am I missing something?

depends
will they hire a man they know to have been involved in hacking a murdered childs phone, making sure hes not vetted too closely for the job,
would they try and wangle an ilegal 50k donation off a russian oligarch,
will they flip their homes and squeeze an extra 55k out of the tax payer, would they claim £47 for two copies of a DVD of his own speech on "value for taxpayers' money"
would they steer the country into a double dip recession
would they lie about being photographed with a dominatrix and some cocaine?

if they did all those things then id say they were contemptable

would they lie about being photographed with a dominatrix and some cocaine?

Categorically; I'd never lie about being photographed with a dominatrix or cocaine.
Photos of me with both would be on my facebook page.

I'm going to tell my kids "everything in moderation", including paid for sex and recreational pharmaceuticals. Just as long as they dont grow up to be dreary, sanctimonious North London lefties they can do what they want.

Anyway, back (loosely) on topic;

This made me chuckle;
[img] [/img]

I'm going to tell my kids "everything in moderation", including paid for sex and recreational pharmaceuticals.

Make sure you tell them to avoid that Tory fetish involving cable and oranges though

It's not just the Tories is it?
David Blunketts dog has been tied to more bedposts than Abby Titmuss.

So who EXACTLY are Greece going to borrow money from if they leave?

Stupid question probably but if Greece leaves the Euro, what happens to money they owe, bailouts etc? Debt converted to Drachma? Written off?

If Greece left the Euro and went back to the Drachma they'd be in control of their own currency so could allow it to appreciate/depreciate according to their needs (see Bank of England). With little or no debt and the subsequent interest payments (in foreign currency) they could potentially devalue and boost exports (if they do export anything), plus all those lovely Greek holidays would look cheap to everyone else and bolster their economy (providing the place hasn't been sold off or torn apart by civil war first).

I'd caveat all of the above with the fact that I've no idea how this stuff really works so will no doubt get shot to pieces now 🙂

FWIW I think this is largely the fault of ze Germans. The best thing for the Greek people in my opinion is to get the hell out of the Euro and go it alone. Before you know it the rest of the PIIGS will most likely be joining them anyway. The Euro is a failed experiment IMO and needs to be stopped.

LOL at Wrecker 😆

A good take on it from Steve Bell in the Guardian

[img] [/img]

Just as long as they dont grow up to be dreary, sanctimonious North London lefties they can do what they want.

ha! I moved from north london several years ago, I now live in west london 😳

Is it nice?

Is it nice?

I'd imagine its likely to erupt into flaming riots and civil unrest at any second. With desperate mobs of gun toting thugs roaming the streets and looting everything thats not nailed down, while assaulting anyone in their path?

Or did you mean Greece?

Is it nice?

Well, there's all the organic tofu you can knit..... 😉

I'd imagine its likely to erupt into flaming riots and civil unrest at any second. With desperate mobs of gun toting thugs roaming the streets and looting everything thats not nailed down, while assaulting anyone in their path?

Or did you mean Greece?

Neither Slough nor West Staines is in West London.

Near enough for me.

Racist.

[img] [/img]

Time for a N.London picture - Swaine's Lane, Highgate.

Time for a N.London picture.....

[img] [/img]

actually i lived in haringey which was a bit like this quite often
[img] [/img]

but it did have the salisbury arms!
[img] [/img]

now im in brentford which is a bit mleh but i like it

in other news it seems that Zeus is stepping in on the european debate
funnily enough hes not a socialist
[url= http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/may/15/eurozone-crisis-gdp-greek-government-talks ]

5.05pm: A remarkable newsflash on Reuters -- François Hollande's plane has apparently been hit by lightning on route to Berlin to meet with Angela Merkel, and is returning to Paris (attributed to a presidential source).

Update: The new president of France has been swapped onto a second plane, and is even now winging his way to meet Angela Merkel. Our Paris correspondent, Angelique Chrisafis, reports that he now won't arrive until 8.30pm local time.

The Economist used the phrase Grexit to describe the process which no doubt will cause untold pain

Looks pretty exciting at the minute on the markets. EURUSD is dropping like a stone, euro financials are plummeting, CDS are blowing up everywhere....

I reckon we have a 50% chance of a Lehman style disruptive event in the next week due to the ugly interface of Greek and EU real-politik.

EURUSD is dropping like a stone

Some good news at last then. We can stop exporting jobs and importing everything else if it goes low enough. 1.17 or lower would be nice.

Yeah, (somewhat) surprisingly GBP is getting hammered too. Not sure if this is a good thing in that we will be able to export more, or a reflection that the markets have no faith in our current situation (i.e. pro-cyclical spending cuts).

On top of all that, it seems increasingly likely that the Fed will have to step in to reduce the liquidity pressure on financials and industry in the US. That should be bad for us too as the USD becomes relatively cheaper and hurts our exports/ causes price inflation in commodities and energy.

With deposit flight from the Greek banks now accelerating, the locals are starting to vote with their feet/ money.