Forum menu
Is there any way of getting a guesstimate for likely vaccination?
Our government has been in the news quite a lot recently. 🙂
There is an online calculator somewhere for rough estimate on when you’ll receive it, mine was September next year I think
Thanks. June-July apparently. I won’t hold my breath...
July September for me. Quite a bit earlier than anticipated on the rash assumption it reasonably accurate.
Yep, July to September for me too.
June-July apparently. I won’t hold my breath…
Likewise. At which point they'll have got to less than half the population. We need 70% to get to a new normal? The pressure to reduce restrictions before it is really wise to do so next year is going to be crazy.
Looks like you picked the wrong day to give up arguing with TJ.
Too subtle I fear, but well done 👍
Watching the progression of the pandemic, it seems that most of the NHS frontline staff are going to have their hands full with their day jobs, so the volunteer vaccinators are the only possible way we are going to “surge” capacity.
Interesting change of delivery from 21 day re-jab to 12 weeks. Where is the efficacy for that decision?
My own views and reality of what’s happening with staffing/volunteers - where would you want to work ? A busy respiratory ward, A&E or a vaccination centre? We are finding shifts being filled in vaccine centres, not acute settings.
In our part of the country we struggle for any workforce with agency filling many roles.
Interesting change of delivery from 21 day re-jab to 12 weeks. Where is the efficacy for that decision?
It’s a different vaccine.
It’s a different vaccine.
Maybe the person who was on our national call got it wrong, but I’m being told that even those already jabbed will now return in 12 weeks
those already jabbed will now return in 12 weeks
"They have advised that the second dose of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine may be given between 3 to 12 weeks following the first dose, and that the second dose of the AstraZeneca (Oxford) vaccine may be given between 4 to 12 weeks following the first dose."
Where is the efficacy for that decision?
Increasing the interval means more people get that first dose in a shorter timeframe. It may take two doses to get full benefit but there isn't zero benefit from having one dose (first dose confers 50% immunity IIRC) so at a population level theres greater benefit in getting that first dose to more people. (I would presume that means 50% of people have immunity after one dose - not that people are half-immune until they get their second dose.)
Giving 100 people two doses to yeild 90% immunity means 90 people are immune. Giving 200 people one does yielding a 50% immunity means 100 people are immune and 80 others are half way to getting that immunity.
AZ vaccine single dose gives 70% immunity. Second dose prolongs immunity rather than increase.
I heard a Pfizer quote recently - I think single dose was 80%
Anyone know whats happening to the OU/AZ 1/2 then full dose vaccine? Waiting for more data:
from ....?
by .... ?
The MHRA stated this morning after analysing the data that they believe the 1/2 then full was a red herring. They think that it was actually the delay between 1st/2nd doses that produced the significant change in efficacy, not the dosage.
So Tony Blair was right then?!
So Tony Blair was right then?!
The final kick in the balls from 2020 🤣
t I’m being told that even those already jabbed will now return in 12 weeks
Ah! Sorry misunderstood. I believe 3 weeks was the minimum before the booster dose. They did talk about delaying the second does early on in the vaccine roll out if they needed to accelerate the process.
At which point they’ll have got to less than half the population. We need 70% to get to a new normal?
How much of a new normal depends on which half is vaccinated?
If those with a notable risk are all vaccinated and you’re left with those that are low risk of significant illness and anti vaxxers then would government just let it rip through the unvaccinated population?
FWIW and I’ve no idea how “real” the results from that calculator are. I’ve just run it for a 16 year old and it’s giving July/August/September.
FWIW and I’ve no idea how “real” the results from that calculator are
That was my thought. Regions have to submit daily figures on actual people jabbed and forecast. My region is currently in the very low 100’s per day. Within a month the theory goes we will be doing 7,509 per day. That’s still negligible in the scheme of things.
Brings you on to why do elderly and vulnerable first. Only reason I can think is that they take up hospital beds. If you were looking at this logically you would let the virus kill of the elderly and vulnerable, and immunise the spreaders (younger population)
But that’s ethically and politically not going to happen
If you were looking at this logically you would
let the virus kill ofeuthanase the elderly and vulnerable so they don't break the system taking up hospital beds while they die of Covid, and immunise the spreaders (younger population)
Depends how far you want to go down the "logical" path.
The MHRA stated this morning after analysing the data that they believe the 1/2 then full was a red herring. They think that it was actually the delay between 1st/2nd doses that produced the significant change in efficacy, not the dosage
Couldn't find this information?
But heard similar on R4 just now, what the Dr didn't clarify is if this resulted in the 90% effectiveness?
At the wifes work they are now contacting anyone and everyone to take the vaccine as they can't get enough of the vulnerable to take it before its shelf life runs out as not many people seem willing to take it tbh
Are people able to jump the queue then Firestarter?
Where is the efficacy for that decision?
No evidence-based medicine. People have no idea just how much goes into defining “The Label” what you can and can’t claim. Every sentence is carefully scrutinised by company and agency. Companies like Pfizer and GSK were fined billions (yea billions) for promoting off-label use of medicines. Apparently it’s OK for the government to do the same.
I’d be running a randomised open label trial to look at immunity and protection in the UK rollout. I’m not even sure what informed consent means when used off-label. Pfizer aren’t happy either.
We’ll probably run out of needles before we run out of vaccine. Such is the UK.
Pfizer aren’t happy either.
I'll bet there are more than a few GP receptionists not looking forward to trying to get a full schedule of vulnerable patients set up a very short notice, too. Missed appointments and doses expiring before they get used?
I’m being told that even those already jabbed will now return in 12 weeks
Care home residents in my area are still getting the second dose after 21 days, but all NHS staff have had their second dose pushed out to 10 weeks.
If anyone is interested the prescribing information is published here and the label for use is very clear - two doses 21 days apart, full protection 7 days thereafter. Not to be mixed with other vaccines. There is rat reprotox data but no monkey data reported. Presumably speed played some part.
Pfizer have approval but not a marketing authorisation. It can be used, but they can’t sell it. Presumably HMG did pay for the doses being given out, but that’s not a given.
I’ll bet there are more than a few GP receptionists not looking forward to trying to get a full schedule of vulnerable patients set up a very short notice, too. Missed appointments and doses expiring before they get used?
I don't understand that mindset. Everyone I know directly involved in the roll out is dying to get started, okay it's the NHS and GP Receptionists do have a reputation... but still everyone I know it up for it.
As for vaccines expiring, the vaccines being sent to GPs are the Oxford ones, they're good for 6 months in a fridge.
As for people refusing the vaccine, in my very limited experience there's a lot of people in their 20s 30s and 40s banging their gums about it being 'untested' or whatever, because they're in the enviable position of being very unlikely to get seriously ill or dying from Covid, older people and vulnerable people are far more keen to have it.
P-Jay
Full MemberI don’t understand that mindset. Everyone I know directly involved in the roll out is dying to get started, okay it’s the NHS and GP Receptionists do have a reputation… but still everyone I know it up for it.
I think it's more that they had plans made and had communicated the original second dose timings and in some cases will even have made appointments for second doses and then it all got chucked out the window with no notice. Doesn't just waste all that time, it makes the job harder when you have to do it- and as ever the message has been muddled so that people will be more likely not to turn up for the second dose as they don't think it's as important....
FWIW my dad had jab #1 in mid Dec and was due for #2 this week. He got a text this morning confirming that his next appointment WILL go ahead as planned. That's cheered him up a bit.
AndyRM - I’ve just been put through to the online training modules and pre-employment checks. Hopefully we will have a crack STW team of vaccinators !
Awesome work! If you need any pointers, let me know 👍👍👍
dantsw13 all ready for action!
I do have a pink roadie top and socks..........
As for vaccines expiring, the vaccines being sent to GPs are the Oxford ones, they’re good for 6 months in a fridge.
Seems to still be a mixture of the 2 still but Oxford is becoming the norm.
I’m getting my first jab this morning.
With such an incompetent government overpromising all and sundry, dont expect to see a vaccine for the general population before next Christmas.
All done dead straight forward.
On care homes - this is why they are high priority for vaccination
Good news that the press attention of the last 48hrs should result in 11,000 community pharmacies being involved. Should help the scale-up.
The DoH have a bit of a blind spot about their potential to deliver services still despite playing lip service to their status as HCPs for years. The initial local enhanced service that they could apply to do at the back end of December had too many hurdles, not least a commitment for doing 1000 per week so not many pharmacies could get involved at that scale. To be fair, that was due to the need to do 195 vials of pfizer vaccines in a box coming out of deep freeze.
I was vaccinated on Tuesday. Wow, I felt properly ill yesterday. I caught COVID pretty badly back in April and asking around a small sample of people I know it does seem that if you have already had COVID, the vaccine side effects are worse. Not complaining though, I'll happily take short term side effects as the cost of being vaccinated.
Nice one - which priority group are you in, out of interest?
@tjagain - that is a scary read 🙁
My father lives in a block of about 60 flats in a housing association retirement living scheme. The young folk in the building are 55, his two neighbours on the landing 87 and 92... The whole building and the carers who are in and out all day long are pretty terrified at the moment.