[Closed] Good news.

Oh, I thought it was gonna be [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-11625892 ]this...[/url]

How disappointing for the beeb - they had been rolling around in muddy glee at the prospect of substantially lower levels of growth for Q3 to beat the government with.

I thought it was going to be [url= http://www.gnmagazine.org/ ]this[/url]

Oh, that's really dissappointing TJ. I thought that at least you'd be telling us how the Swiss thing was all a capitalist plot or how the economic figures are lies because it's all, er, a capitalist plot.

Or something.

ernie?

Oh well that's good.. on the Brekkie show they were saying it was going to have slowed down.

Anyone know how good these figures actually are tho?

theyre twice as good as forecast and 20 times as good as the Beeb editor this morning wanted. All round good news then! 😉

they had been rolling around in muddy glee at the prospect of substantially lower levels of growth for Q3 to beat the government with.

Excellent so the grwoth rate has dropped by 33% [ how much does it need to reduce to be substantial?] before the cuts kick in now if that does not fill you with [s]blind faith[/s]optomism then nothing will.
Clealry 0.8 % groweth will help negate the upcoming job cuts how could anyone disagree that this reduction , before the massive cuts, is anything other than the green shoots of recovery ?

"It's basically all down to construction again and I think the implication is that that's not sustainable," said James Nixon, economist at Societe Generale.

"The underlying rate is obviously significantly less than these headline numbers would suggest."

PS Only the right wingers view the BBC as left wing - I think it is because reality and their view dont often meet- yet the rest of the world see it as a beacon for journalism with integrity. I assume you prefer the neutrality of Fox news for your news?

theyre twice as good as forecast and 20 times as good as the Beeb editor this morning wanted. All round good news then!

I too did a LOL when I saw that report on the BBC website!

I honestly think the BBC should take a long hard look at themselves to see how much they've contributed to the doom-and-gloom of the nation in the last couple of years. IMO they've sunk well below the Daily Mail style of reporting. As the BBC they should report the facts and not get involved in tabloid speculation reporting.

theyre twice as good as forecast and 20 times as good as the Beeb editor this morning wanted. All round good news then!

Erm... but those figures are for before the massive public spending cuts kicked in - which is the thing everyone is predicting will endanger growth. Deary me Stoner - you are slipping into right wing troll mode more frequently these days.

Junkyard - third quarter growth is almost always lower than Q2.

In fact at 0.8% annualised, these figures represent the HIGHEST level of third quarter growth for 10 years.

If you dont understand the context of the data, dont try and make it fit your arguments.

grum - the day the govt publish growth figures for the following quarter before it's actually happened will be an amazing day for econometrics.

Of course the figures are historic.

And if you like we can come back in here in 3, 6, 9 and 12 months time to debate the effect of the cuts. But if you want to second guess the impact of the cuts on GDP then go ahead.

I'll leave it to Nobel prize winning economists thanks Stoner - but I'm sure you know better of course.

as for the neutrality of the Beeb, thats not the point Im making. Its that they are endeavouring to set the tone of the debate BEFORE the data has even been published and with no additional economic material to work with than guessing.

Bloody ell Junky.. go easy.

Anyone would think you worked for the media, reading your polarised posts.

it was the city that were advising that growth would be down

sounds more like the financial sector economic experts not having a clue whats going on to me, just for a change
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fcbfd0e8-e063-11df-99a3-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

[i]The UK economy grew by 0.8 per cent in the third quarter of the year, twice as fast as economists had forecast but still a slowdown from its rapid pace in the second quarter.

The stronger-than-expected figures suggest that the economy is some distance from relapsing into recession, and is expanding at a quicker pace than its long run average which should be enough to maintain growth in jobs.

Growth was particularly strong in the construction sector, which expanded by a still rapid 4 per cent (though down from a record 9.5 per cent rate in the second quarter), and in transport and government services, while manufacturing slackened to growth of 1 per cent from 1.6 per cent.

The data, which are the first estimate of GDP growth in the quarter and often get revised in subsequent estimates, surprised financial markets.

S&P, the ratings agency, affirmed the UK’s triple A rating and upgraded the outlook to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’.

UK government bonds and equity markets fell while the pound climbed strongly as speculation rose that the Bank of England would wait longer before deciding whether to embark on further quantitative easing.

Gilt yields, which rise when bonds are sold off, rose strongly, with the 10-year yield climbing 9.1 basis points to a month high of 3.01 per cent.

The pound climbed 0.8 per cent to $1.5856, while the FTSE 100 equity index fell 0.8 per cent to 5,705.01.

“This is the second major GDP growth surprise in a row and suggests that the UK economy is more resilient than many had feared,” said James Knightley, economist at ING Bank.

“The government will no doubt take this as a sign that the private sector can fill the gap created by public sector cuts, but with consumer confidence, hiring intentions surveys and housing activity data all softening we remain cautious.”

Azad Zangana, economist at Schroders, was more upbeat about the data, suggesting the figures indicated that fears about the private sector’s ability to plug the jobs gap were “overdone”.

“The economy has already generated 343,000 new private sector jobs in the first half of this year, and by the growth numbers published today, it appears that this trend will continue,” he said.

The Office for National Statistics said that, taking into account the poor weather that hit the UK earlier in the year – which deferred some activity into the second quarter and artificially boosted growth in that period – growth in the second and the third quarters were broadly similar.

Quarterly growth so far this year has been much stronger than estimated by the Office for Budget Responsibility as well as most City economists, seemingly shrugging off the fiscal tightening which Labour began earlier this year with the rise in VAT and introduction of 50 per cent top rate of tax.

David Cameron on Monday put green technology and infrastructure at the centre of his “strategy for growth” in an attempt to realign the political narrative surrounding last week’s spending review away from the doom and gloom of cuts.

The fear is that as spending cuts begin to bite deeper next year and many European trading partners follow with cutbacks of their own, the pace of growth will continue to slow.

However, Tuesday’s data make it look less likely that the Bank of England will intervene next month to pump more cash into the economy by expanding its quantitative easing programme, despite recent signs that some members of its monetary committee are growing more sympathetic to increasing the stimulus to the UK economy.

“The stronger than expected growth outturn [in the third quarer] means that it will be incredibly difficult for the Monetary Policy Committee to justify resuming quantitative easing at their November meeting,” added Mr Zangana.[/i]

kimbers - I dont trust any econometric forecasts - cant say Ive ever seen an accurate one.

In fact at 0.8% annualised, these figures represent the HIGHEST level of third quarter growth for 10 years

iirc you often get higher growth after recessions the issues is how on earth you think it will be susatainable once the spending cuts kick in

If you dont understand the context of the data, dont try and make it fit your arguments

Ohh get her 😆 So if I disagree with you I must have no grasp of the subject poor arguing even for you. Why not write that to the Noble prize winning economists who share my view and tell that to them

But if you want to second guess the impact of the cuts on GDP then go ahead.

Yes god forbid any economists/person should do something to the economy and predict the effect of this on the future economy- that would just be stupid ...good point.
Given above on forecast WTF is the point of economics if the forecasts and predictions of the effects are meaningless? and why argue/discuss as even your own view is meaningless - ooh we agree for once 😉

News Sniffer is useful for follwing the BBC's editorial lines:

http://www.newssniffer.co.uk/articles/367339/diff/0/1

Note that the first version is heavy on the doom and gloom and although they say "[i]Some economists say the UK has stalled on the back of spending cut threats[/i]" they dont actually quote any economist saying anything of the sort. The quotes are all about economics confidence, which is something they are doing a good job of undermining.

iirc you often get higher growth after recessions

bravo, correct. Hence the 1.2% for Q2 and the 0.8% for Q3. It's still not a year on year fall now is it. Pick up your nobel prize next year.

However, thats not the point, we're talking about the BBC report about last quarter's results. If you want to drift off topic into the effect of cuts on FUTURE GDP changes then start another thread about it.

You are good at evasion and insult if not answers.

I cannot beleive the BBC updates its reports once the data is actually available and adds quotes from people commenting on the NEWS and the cities and othe ragencies reaction to the news. What kind of shoddy journalism is that reacting to he news and reporting it Whatever next.
I dont see a radical shift in what they were saying either The BBC's chief economics correspondent, Hugh Pym, says growth was so rapid between April and June that a slowdown [b]seems[/b] almost inevitable. The BBC's chief economics correspondent, Hugh Pym, says growth was so rapid between April and June that a slowdown was [b]almost[/b] inevitable.
One was befor ehe knew one after not a hige change is it?

The quotes are all about economics confidence, which is something they are doing a good job of undermining.

[url= http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/articles.aspx?cp-documentid=155071212 ]Hasn't the government been doing a pretty good job of that all by themselves?[/url]

Junkyard pwned.

and you appear unable to keep your arguments to the point.

I say:

BBC editors pushing doom and gloom context to Q3 growth that when actually published shows 2x the level of growth expected and represents the fastest Q3 growth for ten years.

You Say:

[i]Excellent so the grwoth rate has dropped by 33% [ how much does it need to reduce to be substantial?] before the cuts kick in now if that does not fill you with blind faithoptomism then nothing will.
Clealry 0.8 % groweth will help negate the upcoming job cuts how could anyone disagree that this reduction , before the massive cuts, is anything other than the green shoots of recovery ?
[/i]

proper non sequitur stuff right there.

If you want to argue the point, try sticking to it or start another one.

see my edit and thank your fan boy

Dry your eyes princess.

I will try but it is so hard when you no longer love me and have chosen another

Growth was particularly strong in the construction sector

Yup, I can well believe it.

And we all know who's responsible for that ....... don't we ?

It takes a considerable amount of time from initial planning to completion. So I expect construction to carrying on doing reasonably well, before it is devastated by the 60% cuts in social housing, the axing of the Building Schools for the Future project and other capital projects, and the non-availability of mortgages to unemployed people.

And contraction in the construction industry will not simply affect the economy and construction workers. It will also ruin the life chances of families, children, and communities, which are dependant on new schools, homes, and hospitals.

So forgive me if I don't [i]"rejoice"[/i] Woppit.

Stoner - Member

as for the neutrality of the Beeb, thats not the point Im making. Its that they are endeavouring to set the tone of the debate BEFORE the data has even been published and with no additional economic material to work with than guessing.

Well ignore the BBC then Stoner. How about the private sector ? .....maybe ITN ?

Here you are : http://itn.co.uk/business.html

Personally I think it's crap.

But it can't possibly be worst than the BBC .... eh ?

Although I feel I need to warn you, one of my nieces is a very senior ITN producer. She claims to have never voted anything other than Labour all her life. Mind you, her sister who is at least as "left-wing" as her, works for the BBC (news video-editing)