Formula 1 2025 – WILL CONTAIN SPOILERS

Seems Redbull truly is a team truly does have a terrible ethos. 

Liam wasn’t told about the switch until after it was out in the press. Harsh. 

“I mean Tsunoda probably doesn't really have a choice, if he turned it down, they could probably just sack him from racing bulls as well!”

Luckily for Tsunoda they need him just as much as he needs them at the moment

I’m gonna say that, as crazy as it sounds, there is every chance that Lawson will be back in the Red Bull by the end of the season, with Tsunoda back in the Racing Bull. It’s possible that their plan (if they have a plan!) is to give Lawson more time to get experience, both in the Racing Bull and also, perhaps more usefully, on track with an old but still twitchy Red Bull, if the regs allow it

Honestly, they’re just pissing in the wind.

Posted by: Tom Howard

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Most number of drivers for a team in a single season? 4?

Trivia question: Greatest number of world champions (existing or future) to drive for a team within one season? I can think of a team that had three, I'm pretty sure that's the record.

Posted by: sockpuppet

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Seems Redbull truly is a team truly does have a terrible ethos.

Posted by: Twodogs

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I agree, Tsunoda should turn it down....he's got nothing to gain.

Except for getting sacked by RB

Posted by: thols2

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Trivia question: Greatest number of world champions (existing or future) to drive for a team within one season? I can think of a team that had three, I'm pretty sure that's the record.

I assume you’ve gone with Williams 1994 there?

Most number of drivers for a team in a single season? 4?

 

Jordan had six drivers in 1993!...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Formula_One_World_Championship

I would imagine Tsunoda is pretty safe whatever he decides, can't imagine Honda would be very happy if Red Bull/RB sacked the only Japanese driver on the circuit? Plus he's actually pretty consistent when he doesn't have a mechanical or crash.

Hmm. Technically it was only two in 1994, one didn't become WC until 96

Posted by: andrewh

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Hmm. Technically it was only two in 1994, one didn't become WC until 96

”Greatest number of world champions (existing or future)”

“Honestly, they’re just pissing in the wind”

Completely agree. It is a little weird, considering how effective they are in every other area. Maybe it’s Marko?

Marko certainly doesn’t help; half the time it’s as if Jacques Villeneuve has been on an Ollie Reed bender and then decided to have a proper go at talking major nutsack.

It’s way more than that, though. They’re in denial like McLaren were before Honda left them and it turned out it wasn’t the engine holding them back after all. Both of the Racing Bulls were rattling around at two tenths off Verstappen in qualifying, so either Verstappen is worth two tenths over Hadjar or he’s dragging a cantankerous Red Bull to where it doesn’t deserve to be. Everyone knows which one it is, but Red Bull just want to keep pretending to the world that it’s purely down to every single driver other than Max, and there’s enough data now that no-one can really still believe that. If Yuki ends up behind either of the Racing Bulls next weekend then it’s case closed. By which time they’ll have thrown yet another competent driver under the bus. They’re in a complete mess, and if they lose Verstappen (which feels increasingly likely—I think a move to Mercedes for 2026 is very plausible) then unless they happen to really ace the 2026 formula they’re screwed for several years.

If Max went to Mercedes, George Russell would go the other way.

Merc will want to keep Kimi.

Would he? Bad as they are just now if he's out of Merc Aston is looking like his best option, Ferrari and McLaren are sticking for the next couple of years 

if I were George I’d be doing a lot of talking right now, but yeah—Aston would look the most promising option even if they’re about to lose the PU that he’s familiar with. Problem is, Stroll has a comfy seat and Alonso is unlikely to give up on his last chance at a title in 2026—and I think Lawrence is unlikely to kick him out on the streets unless he’s consistently behind Lance this year—so I think George would just have to gamble on signing a one-year contract at a port in the storm and spending that year negotiating a proper seat for 27. He’s doing well at setting out his stall so far this year, though.

I’m kind of hoping Antonelli will gather momentum and set things on fire, though. George is a safe pair of hands but Kimi looks pretty electric. And seems pretty likeable.

Would he? Bad as they are just now if he's out of Merc Aston is looking like his best option, Ferrari and McLaren are sticking for the next couple of years 

Lead driver at RB would still be a tempting prospect for any driver

“Lead driver at RB would still be a tempting prospect for any driver”

I’m not sure if it is to be honest, since Newey left their chassis has got steadily less competitive and their 2026 engine is a big unknown

Why the hook would any top-line driver want to replace Max? That ship's sinking. 

Back whenever Red Bull started with DC they were shite, iirc Newey & Vettel came on board and things changed. 

Without a top class designer Red Bull are going to be second rate. Fortunately/unfortunately  Max is hiding the negative. 

At least they haven't brought Ricciardo back.....yet....

Posted by: pondo

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Why the hook would any top-line driver want to replace Max? That ship's sinking. 

If the best driver on the grid is coming for your seat you need somewhere else to ply your trade.

I doubt George would leave Merc by choice.

Posted by: Bez

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I assume you’ve gone with Williams 1994 there?

Yes, that's what I was thinking of. No idea what happened before the 80s though.

Official - Yuki in, Liam out...

https://www.the-race.com/formula-1/red-bull-swaps-liam-lawson-for-yuki-tsunoda-what-you-need-to-know/

I really hope the F1 journalists hold Horner and Marko’s feet to the fire on this one.

If Tsunoda struggles and Lawson excels in the RB there will be nowhere to hide. Can’t wait for Max to drop a few hints in interviews with his displeasure at the latest fiasco. His Dad should be along with an interview to Dutch media soon as well.

“His Dad should be along with an interview to Dutch media soon as well.”

Pretty sure he has been talking to them already, as he is the most likely reason we knew about the decision so early

I really hope this goes well for Yuki, but sadly I don't see it. However I do expect him to call the car a ****box before long, so that'll be good

I think Yuki will be fine.

It will be amazing to see, if Yuki steps up to the plate & does well in this car. 

What does he have to actually achieve to 'succeed' in the car? Perez had moments of being OK in the car, but was very inconsistent & frequently towards the back of the grid. Lawson has come in & basically been right at the back. 
If Yuki gets the car into Q3 or even Q2 during qualifying he will be performing better. And even if he only scrapes a point or two (or finishes P12 and upwards??), he will have outperformed Lawson.

Red Bull almost can't win in this saga. If Yuki performs well it will show that they made a bad choice putting Lawson in ahead of him. If he performs badly, then it's further evidence that no one can drive the car except Max, especially if Lawson does a load better in the Racing Bull than he did in the Red Bull.

The thing I'm slightly confused by is that I thought Lawson did a testing day in an old season Red Bull along with Verstappen so they could get a time comparison & Lawson was only a couple of tenths of Verstappen's pace. I think it was in a Drive to Survive episode.
So where has that pace gone now he is (was) in the team? Maybe it was just the filming day so wasn't at race speeds?

What does fine mean in this instance? There are 7 cars I'd expect to beat him every week (2 McLarens, 2 Ferraris*, 2 Mercs, 1 RB), so fighting for 8th place?

*big assumption that the team doesn't screw up and a new and unique way

Posted by: stumpy01

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What does he have to actually achieve to 'succeed' in the car?

Regular top 5 finishes - with the odd podium chucked in?

So where has that pace gone now he is (was) in the team? Maybe it was just the filming day so wasn't at race speeds?

An old, good, car would be far easier to get on top of than the current machine and therefore get closer to Max

Posted by: mashr

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So where has that pace gone now he is (was) in the team? Maybe it was just the filming day so wasn't at race speeds?

An old, good, car would be far easier to get on top of than the current machine and therefore get closer to Max

Yeah, also I think they still use different tyres on a filming day so will have expected some delta. 

I would guess that the sim is also not accurate enough to be able to simulate the unpredictable behaviour at the limit (after all, if they knew enough about what caused it to be able to simulate it, then they surely would fix it!)

I can't remember where I read it, but somebody posted up the average qualifying time difference between him, perez, albon and max and they were all pretty similar.  It just looks a tonne worse if the car is 5th and 18th rather than 1st and 10th (as this years car is slower relative to the pack, and also the pack has closed up).

It's not just Liam though - Lewis couldn't get his Ferrari tyres to work last weekend either.

Hope Pirelli have worked in a bigger working window for next seasons new spec tyre.

Posted by: the-muffin-man

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Posted by: stumpy01

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What does he have to actually achieve to 'succeed' in the car?

 

Regular top 5 finishes - with the odd podium chucked in?

At the moment they just need him to be scoring points, any points. Top five is just not realistic, and if they have any expectation that he’ll get on the podium then clearly they’re more hatstand than we thought. There’s barely room for Max up there at the moment.

Basically if Yuki can get the same pace out of the blue car as he was getting out of the white one, that’s a major win. That would jump the second car up by half the grid. Eighth should be the top end of their expectations right now, but even tenth will let them relax a bit. Anything higher is going to rely on performance swings between teams from race to race.

Andrew Benson pours some sense on all the “V10s for 2026” click baitery. Basically, zero chance of them coming back before 2030, and even then very unlikely 

Posted by: stumpy01

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So where has that pace gone now he is (was) in the team?

In China it was a couple of corners. noticeably the fist complex and the last couple of corners. He lost a tenth or so to Max in the first hairpin, made it all up over the rest of the lap and was, in some places, faster than Max, and then lost it all on the last couple of corners that he was entering too fast, and having to over compensate. The advantage Max has is that 1. He's Max, and 2. he knows how the car goes from being grippy to not and back again having driven all its iterations over the years, and Lawson got a grand total of 11 races in 'not a bastard car' to his name. 

I'll expect Yuki will be about Perez/Albon/Gasly/Riccardo pace 

Posted by: shermer75

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Andrew Benson pours some sense on all the “V10s for 2026” click baitery. Basically, zero chance of them coming back before 2030, and even then very unlikely 

I can't see it either. 

For one thing we've got far more city races now. The locals won't be too happy with 22 V10 cars screaming around their neighbourhood.

I'll expect Yuki will be about Perez/Albon/Gasly/Riccardo pace 

Riccardo was much better than the others in the RB, up with, and often beating Max. But then he was hopeless in a McLaren and a VCARB.

Maybe Riccardo's driving style is very similar to Max and suits the characteristics of the RB, would Max be as hopeless as Riccardo was elsewhere? It wouldn't be the daftest thing in the world to put Riccardo in it and see if he can still drive it.

So, predictions for Japan?

Liam takes Yuki out at the first corner 🤣 🤣 

Posted by: vlad_the_invader

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So, predictions for Japan?

Verstappen qualifies 5th to 7th, depending on whether Ferrari get their shit together. Tsunoda makes Q3 but qualifies 10th, behind Lawson and Hajdar.

I think Yuki might struggle to get out of Q1 - The Redbull looks like a real handful to drive.  Team radio might be entertaining.  

Part of me thinks this carefully worded “rotation” has nothing to do with Yuki vs Lawson.  Redbull don’t GAS about Yuki, but do about Lawson.  This rotation is about proving to Lawson and to others that it’s not so much him as the car and that he simply needs time and space (and some RB help) to get on top of it.  

If Yuki struggles, and I think he will, it will make Lawson pick himself up AND stop the pit lane chatter about his performance.  The expense will be Yuki.  But like I said, they don’t GAS about Yuki as their Honda partnership is ending this year.  

I think it's a bit like Ricciardo at McLaren - it was a tricky car to drive and Norris figured out how to do it but Ricciardo couldn't.

As I understand it, the ground effects regulations make the cars inherently understeery in slow corners. This is because the location of the venturi tunnel is stipulated in the rules, so the aero balance is fairly locked in and has to be tuned using the wings. At higher speeds, the car gets sucked down nearer the ground and the front wing becomes more effective because of ground effect. This makes the cars very nervous in high-speed corners. That can be fixed by having a less powerful front wing, but then the cars just understeer like a pig in slow corners. McLaren mastered this with their flexi wing but the Red Bull seems to be very difficult to set up. Max is more comfortable with a nervous car so he can still qualify and race well. Throwing a rookie in that car on tracks he's never raced on before was a big ask. Question will be if Tsunoda can cope with the same level of nervousness.

I’ll be honest I don’t think Yuki, or pretty much any other driver, stands a chance of getting good results in the Red Bull car as it stands, especially when they keep getting thrown in without much practice 

Posted by: thols2

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Question will be if Tsunoda can cope with the same level of nervousness.

As I said, I think he'll be about Perez/Albon/Gasly/Riccardo pace...None of those are objectively bad drivers, bar a few exceptions no one in F1 really is, but they don't have Max's level of feel for that RB. Of course Yuki will struggle - just not as badly as Lawson, but I still reckon, for a driver like Yuki, its still an amazing opportunity, if he can drive it, the seat's probably his for the rest of the year, and RB are strategically at least better than CashAppVisa (or whatever it is that they're calling the team this year) He's not going to get a chance like this again to drive for a top team. 

Posted by: thols2

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As I understand it, the ground effects regulations make the cars inherently understeery in slow corners. At higher speeds, the car gets … very nervous in high-speed corners.

It’s a bit of a shame because—from what little actual experience I have—that’s basically the opposite of how you want a car to behave. I never pay much attention to the technical regs—are there any 2026 changes designed to undo this?

Posted by: Bez

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are there any 2026 changes designed to undo this?

To some extent, yes...

"On the aerodynamics side, there will be less reliance on generating downforce through ground effect, which was one of the pillars of the 2022 rules. From 2026, Formula 1 cars will have partially flat floors and a less effective diffuser, reducing teams' reliance on stiff and low set-ups"

https://www.racecar-engineering.com/articles/f1/fia-announces-details-of-2026-formula-1-technical-regulations/#:~:text=On%20the%20aerodynamics%20side%2C%20there,stiff%20and%20low%20set%2Dups.

...there will also be adjustable front wings too.

Posted by: Bez

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that’s basically the opposite of how you want a car to behave.

Exactly. Let's face it, Danny Ricciardo didn't suddenly forget how to drive and Lawson isn't a hapless amateur, those cars just behave the opposite way you want a car to behave.

Think RB are bonkers to make the decision so early, especially with Lawson never having driven to Australia or China before.

But anyway, as long as my bargain Air China flight actually gets me there, looking forward to my first GP since Spa 2013, which I slept through most of… will be my brother’s first race too. Just hoping for decent weather and a bit warmer would be nice.