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A return period in a flood context is a measure of magnitude..its not a measure of frequency or how often a flood is expected to occir...and its massively misleading for the average person
..I wish the ea would stop using it.
Iirc insurance co have a gentleman's agreement with govt to continue offering insurance to those in high risk flood areas..the existence of that agreement is what allows development in unsuitable areas to continue.
We need to get smarter about flood management though:
As these stories point out, there are solutions in unlikely places - e.g. EU farming subsidies being dependent on all land being used for production are preventing adoption of very effective floodwater management.
how is a "1 in 100 year" event not a measure of frequency?
Obviously events with bigger magnitude will happen less often, the two are inextricably linked.
Because 1 in 100 year events don't happen once every hundred years.
The problem with return periods is that we're incredibly short-sighted, "The worst floods since 1968" OMG!! that's like ofrever!!! How can we be expected to factor that in to our decisions!?!?!?
mole valley floods, 1968, flood this year, bit less than 50 years after. Never going to be regular, but twice in a lifetime? Not infrequent enough to discount form the biggest investment you'll ever make.
But it is, we're very bad at learning, and being honest with our mistakes. "Looks like a stock market bubble, but the last one was aaaaages ago, like what? 5 years ago? and before that? We have to go back another 5 or ten years!!" and again, and again, and again with shocking regularity
The flood risk should be included in the premium you pay. The premium you pay is based on actuarial calculations on the chances you will make a claim, and what that cost will be. (Unless we are talking about gender rating for car and life insurance, courtesy of the EU)
I doubt insurers will try and weasel out of claims for flooding. I doubt they will blame people for living on flood plains. They may review their premiums/excesses/exposure in these areas)
But if you live near a river or on a flood plain, the chances are that at some point in your life there will be an exceptional weather event and you will get flooded. It's not about blame, it's about probability and risk.
No government has tried to control the weather/nature since Canute's early attempts.......
He didn't, to be fair. He was demonstrating his humanity to people whole thought were asking too much of him, showing that he could no more control the tide than anyone else.
IIRC a 100 year flood means it has a 1% chance of happening in any given year, not that occur every 100 years. A measure of probability rather than frequency. I might be wrong though, so feel free to correct me.
bang on wnb.
Realise that I was missing "likely" from my earlier posts. Sorry gwealod if that was misleading, and that the expression of statistical likelihood of occurrence is the part you think is missing from the EA's stuff.
but I wonder if anyone thinks like that. Hope they don't
"1 in 50 year event, being flooded here. Last flooded in 1992, I should be fine to buy as long as I move out before 2042!"
He didn't, to be fair. He was demonstrating his humanity to people whole thought were asking too much of him, showing that he could no more control the tide than anyone else.
Close, ****e was demonstrating that, although King, with powers of life and death over his people, God's power was transcendent over everything.
He could no more command the tide than he could command Almighty God.
One thing that stunned me tonight on telly, was that a lot of flooding now is due to the sheer volume of water that is below ground, and which is now being forced to the surface all over the place. Groundwater levels are higher than many can ever remember, and it's just not being given chance to soak deeper into the aquifers. There are capped boreholes all over the place, and one was shown with the cap off, with water just pouring out of it because of the pressure; the cap was around a meter off the ground!
This isn't a once in 50 year, or once in 100 years event, this is the worst period of prolonged wet weather for around 250 years, which is why there are floods in places that have never been known to flood, even on what some are referring to as a 'flood plain', the elevated parts that haven't flooded for several centuries, and then due to one massive storm and huge tidal surges, such as the one in 1607, which drove the sea as far inland as Glastonbury Tor, swamped thirty villages and drowned 300 people. In 1703 it happened again, and hundreds more were drowned. These were floods caused by the sea being forced inland, a completely different set of circumstances to the current crisis, where the water can't be pumped off of the Levels quickly enough because of the deliberate cessation of dredging to turn large areas of the Levels into wetlands to make it more appealing to wading birds.
Baroness Young, Lord Smith's predecessor at the EA was previously head of the RSPB, and famously said that she'd happily see every pump on the Levels dynamited!
deviant - MemberThis weather is awesome. The other half had a problem with her car that was going to be expensive to fix or more likely terminal.... either way she doesn't have the funds to replace or repair.
So we got her mechanically minded father to put water in the engine and various pipes/hoses, started the vehicle, properly shafted it and are now going through the insurance instead as 'water ingress' into the engine from all this terrible weather and the puddles we must have driven through!
She loses her NCD but gets the car written off and enough of a pay out to get a decent vehicle back on the road again....every cloud and all that.
Very clever, eh, hope she has 3rd party fire and theft, so not covered,
Also a lot of insurance companies dont cover vehicles driven into water because of the potential for fraud, also, how and where did the vehicle get flooded, how was it returned to where it is now, will the neighbours or freinds blow her in for fraud.
Mistakes is a bit harsh. There's only so much you can do with the finite resources you have. Biggest problem is that people who have houses near water don't want things in the way of the water cos it's all pretty, or want building work going on even though it protects them "cos it's never flooded before". You have to consider so many variables along the channel, upstream and downstream, it's crazy. And of course you have to prioritise schemes which protect more people, because it's protecting life which is the priority. Not fields in most cases.
Not really harsh. they have made mistakes.
My tone might have sounded sarcastic but I wasnt being so, they are undoubtedly underfunded and limited. That is why mistakes have happened.
We can but hope for a massive cash boost and subsequent employment drive by them. Not only to fix problems but go after people causing them.
The flat I live in is subject to excessive contents insurance quotes, which did go up massively following a previous flood. Now, I live on the second floor so unlikely to make a claim. I would also like to point out that I did choose to live here, but it was pretty much a choice of buying here or not buying at all, since the place I live was the cheapest available.
Being surrounded by floodwater is a ball ache. Not so much for me, but it means that, for example, my MIL cannot get out for her daily walk. She feels this to be crucial to her wellbeing, as she has had cancer and related ops and the exercise improves things. Wading through the water last time ended with her getting sick, so she's remaining housebound until the waters recede. I understand that it's important for lots of people to feel better about their lives by belittling other people. You can ****ing do one.
Good news - looks like Cameron has warned off the insurance companies.
So hopefully we won't be seeing the blame the victim card being played this time.
My cynical mind wonders if this is anything to do with this being the Tory heartland. 🙂
And a general election on the horizon...
Surely gay couples should pay for the flood damage since they are clearly to blame?
What exactly is Singletrack's legal position with deviant admitting a criminal act on here?
Just seen the news & It looks like a lot of people were ready for flooding anyway. Most people had boats at the bottom of their (flooded) gardens! Very handy & forward thinking if you ask me.
(iv'e got a Canadian open canoe, just in case)
In the past I have found STW Towers to be quite fair MCTD 😉
Maybe being a claims manager in a previous life just makes me a little more sensitive to that kind of thing.
Still, it's a victimless crime, eh? 🙄
epicyclo - MemberDidn't actually give a number of how many claims were fraudulent, just an assertion that some were. How do they know?
[url= https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-action-on-whiplash-claims ]Fraud figures in note 5[/url]
45,000 in 2011 - and that's just the ones caught.
I doubt STW would be responsible for reporting an admission of perceived fraud, but I'd imagine the police could request identifying details of the poster if they were investigating.
MoreCashThanDash - Member
What exactly is Singletrack's legal position with deviant admitting a criminal act on here?
I also broke the speed limit driving to work this morning and took class-A drugs at college....quick, hang me!
It's not all quite as simple as some make out is it. I had a to cut shourt a business trip to Brussels yesterday at £200 cost to myselg because my road was flooded and we were about 1" away from being underwater. Our are has not flooded previously, didn't come up in any searches and is not on a floodplain area etc.
However a couple of issues further downstream and an issue with some building work taken on by a fella down the road, means that on this occasion our home is very much at risk of flooding.
As for "what are we doing"... well not a great deal in all honesty... Water is kind of hard to stop as King Kanute once found out. It goes where it goes and there's very little you can do about it, we've got sandbags going on and we're doing our best... but we can't 'divert the water as it comes up through the drains by the houses.
Only thing worse than a criminal is a smug criminal.
Wonder if crimestoppers would share that view? 😉
Surely there's some risk that ANY house could flood. How's the average person supposed to assess this risk? Its beyond their abilities
Living in one of the highest homes in the Bristol area I hope not for the sake of everyone else!
Only risk we have is water ingress from crappy building work but that is down to the landlord and her builder and the longer it takes them to agree to doing anything about it the more damp and is appearing on the walls and ceilings and the more of my stuff is getting soaked...but that is another matter!
My sister struggled to get contents insurance for her rented flat, because it was right next to the Tyne, so it was inside the flood risk area on the EA maps, even when she pointed out that it was a [i]second floor[/i] flat...
We pay a fortune for our building insurance, because our postcode is within 400m of a water course. When the river floods, the bottom of our garden can be under around 6 feet of water. But, the garden's 300 feet long, and the house is a good ten feet higher up and 200 feet away than the highest the river has ever reached, so I think we'll be ok.
Weirdly, the river has broken its banks far less this year than in previous years.
Fortunately David Cameron has now declared that 'Money is No Object'
when it comes to the cleanup and repairing flood defences
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/11/uk-floods-david-cameron-unlimited-public-funds
and
"we are a wealthy country and we have taken good care of our public finances"
shall we all celebrate the end of the age of austerity then?
The thought of Tory voters in Berkshire being driven back to the dark ages hasn't crossed David Camerons mind.
With all the best will in the world of money being no object there's 2 problems from my own perspective.
Yesterday morning the water was about 12" deep and lapping around the front doorstep. Mrs Weeksy was told by the council "we've sent some sandbags, you're on your own, there's only a few houses so we've got more important things to work on"
Along with part 2, which is that no-one can just make the water go away, it has to go 'somewhere' but there's more of it than the stream can take, more than the drains can take and more than any other things in place can take...so where/how do you make it go away.
I'm sitting here and it may seem i'm in control of my thoughts and emotions, but in all honesty i'm struggling to keep control of it all.. it's just i hate being in a situaion i can't influence, affect or resolve.. we've checked and tried to unblock all the culverts, we've re-directed water to the best of our ability, but still, it's not the best. If we re-direct the water incorrectly, we're facing the real possibility of flooding someone elses home instead through our actions.. which would be as much as a disaster to me as flooding our own.
It's easy making light of the situation of "it's only a bit of water"
but you know what... it's not, it's really really not.
shall we all celebrate the end of the age of austerity then?
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The age of austerity never applied to the south east in the first place. It only ever applied to the frightful plebs in their provincial hellholes
And central London, did you see that bit, binners?
Phoned an insurance company, one that makes a saga out of a crisis, for a contents and building quote, seems because i have a roof that is flat 4 floors above me, i am not able to be insured, and one question i got asked was was i within 150 metres of any water and had i been flooded within the last 5 years, or any flooding nearby,living on a hil didnt count.
So expect some equally stupid questions from insurance companies as they try to refuse insurance to people renewing with a new company.
Weirdly, the river has broken its banks far less this year than in previous years.
It's not bad everywhere. Our stream down below our house isn't that high.
It's easy making light of the situation of "it's only a bit of water"but you know what... it's not, it's really really not.
Sorry if this sounds harsh, but it could be far far worse. You'll only end up with some mud in your house. At least your house hasn't been completely destroyed by a tornado, earthquake or tsunami; you have food and warmth; your family are (presuambly) still physically ok.
In the grand scheme of things you're going to be ok, and your house most likely will do. Now that's not saying it doesn't suck to be flooded of course, and you have my sympathy for that.
Re Binners Map
Is that because Tory/ non labour run councils hadn't put in such inflationary budgets? So the point is?
I'm in Brighton , and buggered if I will let the Greens put through a 5% increase - when they have pissed so much money up the wall on hair-brained schemes and advisors
And central London, did you see that bit, binners?
Apologies.It also applies to the plebs who've temporarily infiltrated the capital, in their enclaves. They won't be there for much longer
Is that because Tory/ non labour run councils hadn't put in such inflationary budgets? So the point is?
Which bit are you struggling with? That map shows how much budgets have been [i]actually cut[/i]. And it carries on year on year. So the imbalance of the austerity are cumulative. So by the end of this parliament, northern metropolitan councils will have had their budgets cut by 20% - 30% while the richer home counties remain relatively untouched
But we're all in this together, aren't we? You'll excuse us if some of us are less than sympathetic to the bleating from Surrey riverside home owners, especially when they were then immediately promised a 'money is no object' approach by the PM himself.
I wonder if that response would have been forthcoming in any other part of the country? As if we need to ask. This willingness to chuck money at anything at all seems to have been noticeable by its absence until the Tory voters of the South East looked like they needed another subsidy from the reset of us 🙄
You'll excuse us if some of us are less than sympathetic to the bleating from Surrey riverside home owners
It's the southerners fault that Cameron has said this ? Therefore your sympathy is now gone for people who have done nothing wrong apart from choosing to better themselves and move down south into a nice area ?
It's the southerners fault that Cameron has said this ?
Yes. Its an unhealthy mutual co-dependency, that isn't applied to anywhere else
My point is that when this was just effecting Wales and the South West, nobody in Westminster could give a toss (apart from maybe a phone call to see if their Cornwall 2nd or 3rd home was ok). If it'd been the north or scotland they'd have been equally as disinterested. Now all of a sudden its a crisis, because there are some wet BMW's in the home counties. And the Hunters and Barbours are being called into use for their actual purpose. Then the politicians are falling over themselves to have their photo ops, and making lavish promises of gushing funds
The rest of meant to park our cynicism and applaud this, are we? Should we keep our bolshy opinions to ourselves and doff our caps at the same time? 🙄
Budget cuts is a red herring, the EA never had a budget cut until recently, so it would have made naff all difference. In fact on their own KPI's they gave themselves a green traffic light for reducing flooding risk in 2012/13.
As for political parties, well it makes sense to look after your own doesn't it. No party of any side is going to spend much time helping people who religiously won't vote for them.
The rest of meant to park our cynicism and applaud this, are we? Should we keep our bolshy opinions to ourselves and doff our caps at the same time?
No but maybe you could wipe some of those enormous chips off your shoulder.
Housing developers are trying to weasel out of new proposals that would mean they would have to include areas that soak up water on future large scale building plots. Apparently, it would cost "them" too much... for which you can read that they want the EA or someone else to pay for and do the mitigation for them.
Plenty of investment for flood defences along the River Severn Binners. That's not in the southwest or south. Your chips getting extra soggy in this weather 😛
I've just spent the last 6 hours lugging bucket after bucket of water, up the road, down the drain, repeat.... again, again again.
We now have a water pump doing that job and we're mostly in control of the situation i think. The wife is now in a meeting with the local council, Enviromental Agency and Highways agency....
Me, i've just put my boy to bed so have 10 mins rest... then back outside for me.
Today, the people buying our house pulled out of the purchase as they live in the same village and have seen the flooding outside (almost inside our house)
I know people are in worse positions... but today, having my wife in floods of tears, my house sale blown away and my house covered by a lake... i don't know who they are.
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