There is so much negative financial news at the moment the big ones being US/China, Brexit uncertainty.
Why are the financial markets still seam to be doing ok? Brexit vote defeat last night and the FTSE 100 is up .11%. Is the world just ignoring all the BS and just cracking on?
Yep.
I guess there are so many angles - perhaps one of them is that it's been factored in.
Also financial markets are only one measure of an economy.
And my personal thought is that Brexit (Whatever form it takes) won't be the absolute nightmare (if that can be bench marked) that has constantly been peddled - because effectively we still have to carry on.
I think chances are there's a global recession around the corner that has been inflated by personal debt - this will be much more devastating when it hits.
It's going to happen soon, the amount of apartments going up in London for private build to let and then not being filled by tenants is ridiculous. My place is brand new, affordable if you've got a household income of 50k+....it's been open for tenants for a year...only a third of the apartments are filled. Yet everywhere I look more are going up.
The bubble is going to burst big.
And my personal thought is that Brexit (Whatever form it takes) won’t be the absolute nightmare (if that can be bench marked) that has constantly been peddled – because effectively we still have to carry on.
I think the word you're looking for there is "hope."
I'm in Bristol and the house prices have shot up over the last 3 years. Estate agents say a lot of mid 30's are selling their 1 bed flat in London and buying a 4bed semi in Briz.
They are backing both sides.
The rental market is quite weird, I have seen lots of houses that arent being rented, yet price doesn't go down. I wonder what they would do if the supply of housing was artificially constrained.
I wonder what they would do if the supply of housing was artificially constrained.
A typo? It is artificially constrained at the moment, it's one of the reasons that prices keep rising.
yep its a typo apologies.
I think chances are there’s a global recession around the corner
Yep, end of this year/start of next year is when recession will hit. Already reducing costs in readiness for it where I work.
I think chances are there’s a global recession around the corner
Didn't somebody tell us the Eurozone was going to collapse in 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Soon!!
The nature of the markets have changed from fundamental driven to passive investing so equilibrium is maintained until the models blow up or break risk bounds.
Also the underlying thinking that if the markets (as a measure of wealth) blow up the relevant central banks will resume QE or further easy monetary policy.
its all priced in, the eu have as much to lose as us brits..
as others have said i can see a big crash/global recession coming.
same with company share price, companies earnings/value are all factored in, on the news when a blue chip/ftse 100 publish results it'll usually say if its at the top of the estimate range mid or bottom, profit warnings tend to be issued well in advance to keep shareholders confident..
shareprices usually get hit when companies publish result far lower than estimates with no profit warnings/forecasts published
Its all about confidence.
There is so much
negativefake financial news
FTFY
Media hype innit.
I think one of the reasons is that because there is high employment, there is also cash looking for a home. With bank interest rates so low people are looking to Stocks & Shares for income/growth. Recent legislation on "buy to rent" has made that investment less attractive too, pushing cash to S&S. And maybe the markets have priced in Brexit uncertainty. I am not an expert.
I've seen quite a few statements showing that the ftse all share is underpriced compared to the s&p500. The FTSE has only grown ~15% compared to the s&p with an extra 20% on top since Brexit.
I'd expect a strong rally of the FTSE if Brexit gets put to bed / delivered without too much animosity
Priced in already. As mentioned above, low interest rates attract equity investment.
Is the world just ignoring all the BS and just cracking on?
Yes, in a nutshell.
Why wouldn’t you crack on?
BoE isn’t politicised anymore and some decent bloke with a brain is in charge, that helps a huge amount in the confidence stakes.
Only real downturn is in Assets moving into the EU from the UK, but that’s just lumps of money that wasn’t doing much anyway.
Don't understand those predicting a global recession, a lot has been done within the money supply to mitigate any large spikes and Banks hold more buckets of cash now than they ever have done.
Property has been volatile in pockets around the country, but no more than normal just a bit more focussed. Mortgages have increased amongst first time buyers, first time in years.
Yeah, Brexit has a lot of uncertainty and a ring of poo around the edges but you can’t put your life on hold based on unknowns and a low risk strategy.
Anyway, if you loose your jobs you’ll have already taken out some form of insurance to make sure you don’t loose your home won’t you?
We've learnt a lot since 08’ and there are now mechanisms set to mitigate mass spikes.
Its not all rosy obvz.
Anyway, if you loose your jobs you’ll have already taken out some form of insurance to make sure you don’t loose your home won’t you?
and in a Big Short moment, whats the insurance market on that insurance like these days? Just asking for a friend
because effectively we still have to carry on.
It might just carry on elsewhere,though. Net global effect the same, pockets of the UK stuffed. Maybe!
The Construction sector is slowing in terms of new commissions in the UK. Construction slow down always presages a recession.
The only thing that will help is Government infrastructure spending that specifically targets both big and SME.
the eu have as much to lose as us brits.
Yes exactly. The Europeans utterly depend on the UK for a huge proportion of......
Jokes,
Pity,
Schadenfreude
I can't believe people are still peddling this shit.
The Europeans have a yard sale of epic proportions to look forward to at Brexit.
Like all this cyclical things , it will at some point.
We don't have crystal balls though do we?
Which is why the Brexit horseman need to just peg it back until we see what is actually delivered, and exactly how we react to it.
The answer to the original question is because what you hear in the media is focusing on the bad stuff and not reporting on the good stuff. Generally globally things are good, better than they ever have been for the overwhelming number of people. Not all perfect, never will be, and there are chhallenges heading our way... there always is. If things were as they are reported then things would be heading south very quickly.
The UK stock market is being propped up by the weak pound.
That and the BoE pumping billions into the economy whenever a big shock is expected.
whatyadoinsucka
the eu have as much to lose as us brits
Well sort of. Inasmuch as in some ways they do lose essentially the same as we do, except that for them it's spread across the entire EU whose GDP is 20 trillion and population is just a hair under half a billion, whereas for us it's spread across the UK whose GDP is 3 trillion and population is 66 million
It's like if you drop your last tenner, and that group of 7 people over there drop a tenner out of their £70 kitty. You've both lost the same but who's worse off? Who's better placed to replace it? And who is going to be saying hah! Those suckers over there lost a tenner too, so it's fine! as they walk out of the bar and walk home in the rain.
Oh and they lose easy access to one trading party out of 27 in the EU, while we lose easy access to 27 out of 27. I don't have a shitty analogy for that one.
I had a very educated colleague who said they had ordered 'double' what they usually do on the on-line 'shop' - I'm like 'why' - the only reason we will run out is folk like you buying more stuff than they need.
There is a whole load of scare mongering going on. PS I'm an accountant, and the only thing that hisses me off about Brexit, is the mess the Government has made for everyone (stay and leave).
Don’t understand those predicting a global recession
Probably because you are not as qualified as they are, don't have a full time job solely to do the research and analysis for which the company you work for relies on your analysis to base their 2019 decisions on?
I had a very educated colleague who said they had ordered ‘double’ what they usually do on the on-line ‘shop’ – I’m like ‘why’ – the only reason we will run out is folk like you buying more stuff than they need.
Or we have massive delays at the point of entry to the UK. That would cause shortages as we do not normally hold large stocks of. Fast moving consumer goods, why would we.
The Construction sector is slowing in terms of new commissions in the UK. Construction slow down always presages a recession.
I remember posting on here back in 2006/7 saying that work was drying up and fewer people were building. I got poo-pooed for it.....
Some of my investments have dropped recently. And strangely only the ones that are UK based (ie investing in UK companies).
Don’t understand those predicting a global recession
Probably because you are not as qualified as they are, don’t have a full time job solely to do the research and analysis for which the company you work for relies on your analysis to base their 2019 decisions on?
I agree with the qualifications point, a 1st in Economics doesn’t go far these days. My FTE is not in research, that’s true. My company relies on BoE predictions and our own Banks predictions. We aren’t predicting a crash, nor a personal debt increase. Given ST predictions we’re not predicting much volatility at all in the next 5yrs. Granted in 16’ when the Brexit vote went through we did revise our predictions and those have born true.
There is so much negative financial news at the moment the big ones being US/China, Brexit uncertainty.
Why are the financial markets still seam to be doing ok? Brexit vote defeat last night and the FTSE 100 is up .11%. Is the world just ignoring all the BS and just cracking on?
The more they peddle their BS the better because people really need to wake up to the new world of BS. Ya, people are immune to all those BS merchants now.
still waiting for my Nobel Economics prize....
Antigees law:
all economic cycles are different, they get faster and they get deeper and harder.
@ northwind i was a remainer, but i see the point the brexiteers have.
I voted remain as a stable economy is key IMHO.
Brexit was always going to be a car crash, to stay in was simple.
The EUs main problem will be if we can leave, then others may follow.
After this turmoil then I'm not sure others will attempt to, but its clear MPs and europe hope to block any deal. hence the current mess
I'm a pessimist, i'll always predict a bad economy and bad times ahead.
personally I've had a decent pay rise and bonus today, but i know my company along with many other big companies are cutting staff (current times are just an excuse to get shut of deadwood)
The EUs main problem will be if we can leave, then others may follow.
After this turmoil then I’m not sure others will attempt to, but its clear MPs and europe hope to block any deal. hence the current mess
That's exactly why EU is trying to make an example of UK.
Breakup is inevitable but when time will tell.
I read that UK personal debt is at record levels.
I'm pretty surprised at that given the change in affordability rules that came into play in 2008. I have to assume that it's partly due to inflation, because wages have been stagnant, or just the huge numbers of people buying into PCP cars - it's certainly an easy way to massively increase your total indebtedness without greatly changing your affordability.
We aren’t predicting a crash, nor a personal debt increase.
Fair enough, where I work we (or rather the companies economists) are predicting a recession (not necessarily a crash).
Will have to wait for 12 months to see whose company was right I suppose, let's hope it is yours.
I'm working for a multi national manufacturer at the mo. Recently they focused on supplying to what they see as recession proof industries -healthcare, schools, food manufacturing. They have done really well if share price is a measure.
In regards to Brexit they had a think and decided they don't have a clue so have done nothing more than a bit of stock piling.
Consequently I feel like I'm completely out of touch with the real world.
Fair enough, where I work we (or rather the companies economists) are predicting a recession (not necessarily a crash).
A recession is a crash with acceptable casualties 😉