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in, no question.
we do 60% of our trade outside the EU
40% with EU, 20% outside EU on trade terms negotiated by the EU is the figure I have seen most often quoted. So yes, 60% outside the EU is correct, but 1/3 of that trade is under common trade terms that we've said goodbye to.
At least we'll be in the EMA, and I think they'll be happy with that, since MHRA are such a big contributing element. Just a shame they will be leaving, nobody wants to go to Amsterdam and they are already struggling to recruit.
He’s spending it with the Russians on having Boris Johnson, Rees-Mogg and IDS meet with unfortunate accidents.
Don't see it Putin loves a weak EU/UK, gives him another chance to nibble off a bit more of the Ukraine
Even Hammond who apperas to be the least unhinged of the cabinet simnply does not get it "Philip Hammond has put Britain on a fresh collision course with Brussels after he warned the government could reject any Brexit trade deal not including financial services."
Does the really think that threat has any weight?
Who'd have thought it eh?
This would explain it all, possibly we can have David Davies sectioned - the Dunning–Kruger effect. I would happily acknowledge my own low ability in the context international trading arrangements other here of a brexit persuasion - SEEK COUNCILING NOW.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
WTO Brexit is the simplest and cleanest form
Bit like saying a guillotine is the simplest and cleanest way to deliver a haircut.
you wouldnt be the 1st person to say that about Davis!
wto looks a spiffing option
Impact asssessments finally available
no wonder gov tried to cover them up
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/971707669731008512
they are hurting UK based on foolsih ideology
look how badly fisheries hit outside of CU & SM, no wonder Tusk so brazen over fishing rights, he know he has uK by the balls
https://twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/966629684086738944
"90% of global growth in the next 10 years will be outside of Europe"
A wonderful statistic to bandy around in support of global free trade.
BUT if your wages are 1000$ a year and that grows to 2000$ a year, you still won't be buying Scottish fish (or almost any other product made in one of the most expensive places on the planet). Assuming that growing global markets in developing and 3rd world nations are going to suddenly replace our European markets is stupidity if no-one can actually afford to buy anything we produce at a price we need to sell for to cover cost of production.
Of course we can offer them a few specialised things they cannot yet produce like pharma in return for even cheaper agricultural produce, thus destroying our own farms whilst reducing our resilience to world food shortages and other outside risks to our food security.
Have we done this yet?
EU freezes Brexit talks until Britain produces Irish border solution
Donald Tusk says negotiations will be 'Ireland first' from now on
I saw that. And I thought 'lolz'.
Then I started to cry (inside) realising that these pillocks are in charge of my country.
Take back control? We aren't qualified, please someone else come and control us!
woopsy
Those civil servants, poor things. Imagine having to write that report, be polite, apolitical, explain the uncertainties and that this is our best reasoning on available evidence, AND NOT USE CAPITALS TO SHOW JUST HOW BAD THINGS COULD BE!!!!
So… EU now ready to progress with talks based on Labour's current position, but not the government's one… so what next, if you are the kind of person who wants us to Leave, but understands that we need a deal that minimises the damage for both the UK and Ireland? Do you call for a general election and a Labour negotating team? What do those of us that still feel Brexit should be stopped do, in terms of the democratic process? Do we also just hope for a Labour team to take over, as being the most likely way forward for the country outside the EU… it do we hope that the Conservatives brick us into a corner from which the only ways out are economic isolation, or a flipping of the Leave decision… all geniune questions… I can't come close to answering them… can anyone else?
I’d rather have the Tories fail completely at brexit than labour achieve some crappy compromise.
But… failure can take two very different forms… failing and flipping is one thing (the newspapers would go nuts mind you)… but Leaving without any deal and transition period in place will be properly messy… not being a Labour person*, I still think I'd rather have Corbyn as PM than that kind of mess…
[ *I've only voted Labour once in my life, when the PM told me to either back her Brexit plan, or vote Labour… I listened… she hasn't returned the courtesy. ]
I’d rather have the Tories fail completely at brexit than labour achieve some crappy compromise.
why?
Hard crash-out leave won’t happen though, it’s too chaotic for the “grown-ups”™ THM to accept it. A de facto withdrawal of A50 has to be the odds-on favourite at this stage.
JY, as above, a hopeless failure will end in A50 being withdrawn. It will be a mess of course, but all options are a mess at this point.
I'm sure I've alluded to this before, but I think behind closed doors may has intentionally set things up to fail as a get out of jail policy.
No one wants hard brexit, well no one with any say anyway and we've painted ourselves into a corner of hard brexit or stay in, in all but name or stay in completely.
Vague extension of transition period, EU stalling talks over key issues, more MPs growing a pair and getting more vocal.
May's walking the tightrope within her own party, as is JC.
I think this is the application of brakes on the whole thing, as we all know you can't put a car into reverse when you're driving forward without ripping the gearbox to shreds, you need to come to standstill first.
JY, as above, a hopeless failure will end in A50 being withdrawn. It will be a mess of course, but all options are a mess at this point.
A50 will not be withdrawn there is too much ego. We will leave. Nothing will be agreed except a transition period. We will pay in as much if not more than now during this time. It will be extended. People will forget and it will be the new norm until someone else goes crazy and decides we should not follow one rule and the whole mess comes crashing down..
mattyfez: that implies some sort of machiavellian intelligence behind the whole thing, whereas all the available evidence points to a complete bit of a mess of incompetence and hubris.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it.
BTW despite EU asking David Davies said there was no point him attending the “negotiations” this week. AFAIK the transition negotiations have been completed.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it
That light at the end of the tunnel, you know the one that is getting brighter even though you are standing still, yep it's a steam train, a good old fashioned British Steam train, running on the last of the British coal, it's going to hit you and then you will know what no deal really means.
I'm not sure I'd give them the credit of calling them machiavellian, it just seems the least damaging, most logical way forward for all involved, even the politicians.
It's the only realistic option, I don't give May much credit but I can’t see her going for hard brexit, or her party or our 'sovereign Parliament' allowing it, purley for selfish short sighted reasons mind as it would both destroy the tory party, and put Labour in government at the next GE. That's the tory way, party before country.
@welsh I take your point but China now buys more Ferraris and BMWs than any other country. The future really does lie elsewhere. Over my career the growth in asset management has been spectacular outside developed markets like the EU. Aside from the UK businesses I have run have seen very little investment from Europe vs huge flows from Middle East and Asia.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it.
Really?, your interpretation of "excellent" is rather different to my interpretation.
It's a shambles with no good outcome, no matter how you try and fudge the numbers.
Time has come to stand up to those who continue to call for brexit and call them out for what they are - utterly deluded ****-wits
Maybe now I can be told why WTO is so good when it will put my prices up by 30% and possibly 6 people out of a job. If mediation is needed let the people involved get a lawyer.
I never voted for the WTO, I have no idea who runs it.
As an Englishman I will not be dictated to by an unelected foreign organisation.
That is not a Brexit for the hard working British taxpayer.
No surrender to the WTO.
China now buys more Ferraris and BMWs than any other country. The future really does lie elsewhere.
So what you are saying is we are better off in the EU as we don't have much to offer on our own, and you agree that all the brexiter talk of boycotting EU companies won't do much to scare the EU into giving us a better deal than what we already have.
WTO means a hard border in Ireland .
GFA in jeopardy and the return of troubles in Ireland , i guess it is all woth it for the Brexiters .
then you will know what no deal really means.
i assure you that all those who want WTO are not the ones likely to ever feel what it really means.
https://medium.com/@MrWeeble/who-actually-trades-solely-under-wto-rules-1b6127ce33c6
In great company
<p id="adb3" class="graf graf--p graf-after--figure">For those of you not familiar with Mauritania, it’s GDP is $4,714million (0.2% of the UK’s), 50% of its exports consist of Iron Ore, and between 1% and 17% of the population still live in slavery.</p>
<p id="960b" class="graf graf--p graf-after--p">It appears that this is the country that Leave.UK wish to emulate. I am afraid that this is not a vision for Britain’s future that I can share.</p>
Jamba - point of order - the transition negotiations are not completed. the draft needs to be put into legally binding form. Only then will they be completed.
the irish border question still needs to be solved with some new solution or we fall on the backstop of no regulatory divergence or its hard crash out with no transition
this has all been obvious for months
Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
exactly - so until May and co either agree no regulatory divergence on the island of ireland or come up with some other workable solution ie one not based on unicorns and fairy dust then there is no deal - no transition, no rights for UK expats in the EU and no trade deal. Also the transition has to be agreed in the next 3 weeks or companies will start moving into the EU - banks included.
I am really amused by all the frothing from Forter and Fox. All the EU are doing is put in legally binding terms the deal agreed at xmas. the UK has not given any proper proposals for anything other than the backstop so how can it be in the legal agreement? Its not up to the EU to propose anything and May and co have proposed nothing concrete at all
all;this was so obvious to anyone with half a brain
all;this was so obvious to anyone with half a brain
Sums up those who continue to push for Brexit perfectly
But blue passports though? Great, eh?
What really angers me is the status of UK citizens living in the EU, I don't think the UK government has ever mentioned or thought anything about that, all the talk has been around getting EU citizens out of the UK.
Utterly grotesque that our government is seemingly prepared to forsake the lives of millions of it's own citizens in the name of xenophobia.
Yup - used as bargaining chips then forgotten. these folk re going to lose their rights to free healthcare and many are effectivly uninsurable. A lot of them will have to come back to Britain at great financial and personal cost. Others will have to change citizenship. they will also lose their rights to move around the EU freely
There was a piece on the news a few days ago about a couple of financial companies that have moved to Paris since Brexit. Small companies happy with the move. The boss of one gave the guarantee of passporting rights as the main reason and an employee was very enthusiastic about the higher quality of life he could afford in Paris. Another report said companies were in the process of moving thousands of jobs..
A lot of expats don't have free healthcare rights as it is, TJ, and already pay for insurance. As for the right to move around Europe freely, the Shengen rules say they can, but there will prsumably be limits on how long and whether they can work. The ease with which Brits are getting French passports says that in France at least Brits already in France have nothing to worry about. The French authorities recieved 83 000 requests in 2016 and 60 000 in the first six months of 2017 - I've done searches for refusals and found non to date.
Alex Taylor was on the news recently brandishing his new French passport with a big grin - he kissed the passport and said "I reproach the Brexiters denying young people the right to do what I did". The English lady in our MTB club has been granted nationality and is just wading through the paperwork to get a passport.
Excellent development. No deal, no money. WTO let’s get on with it.
Yes, let's plough on with trying to trade with nations who are now fully aware that we renege on our financial commitments at the first opportunity. Even the fact that this is being proposed, albeit by a small, vocal, lunatic minority, must make potential trading partners slightly cautious about future arrangements. Especially as that minority seems to have a disproportionate influence politically.