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Ask Zokes mike – he’s the authority on causation
When it comes to statistical inference, yeah, relative to the average punter I probably am. That’s because I deal with complex data for my job on a daily basis. However, in the case of that figure, anyone who paid attention at GCSE maths could tell you that it provides no information on causation.
Correct zokes the ONS avoids the hyperbole and abuse favoured by others - hence my earlier comment about preferring to go directly to the source
What’s the expression - QED
refer to section 2 - statisticians comment
pity the Beeb didn’t read that bit/chose to ignore it
That’s because I deal with complex data for my job
Clearly, you're not the only one.
Correct zokes the ONS avoids the hyperbole and abuse favoured by others – hence my earlier comment about preferring to go directly to the source
So, why are you drawing causation from it?
“Brexit could well be a factor in people's decision to move to or from the UK, but people’s decision to migrate is complicated and can be influenced by lots of different reasons.”
From the Stats comment, the UK does not collect the data to draw the conclusion however...
Closing of EU offices, loss of research, documented cases of harassment and plenty of anecdotal evidence of people leaving due to uncertainty.
It's impossible to understand why people didn't come via surveys and research as you didn't know who was thinking about it, however we can look at the events and current political climate and make a resonable guess as to the factors involved.
Would you move to a country for shakey job prospects and limited support?
I didn’t.
I welcomed the fact the we continue to attract immigration from the EU and non-EU countries despite Brexshit.
Responding to kimbers point I did note some correlation but made no causal link. Despite your claim to being an expert here - or merely you hasty desire to troll - you jumped to making a false claim to create a false argument. I corrected you but you carried on. A trend that we see frequently. Hence I can add the right testicle to the left one.
to get a response
Why indeed mike and yet more do than in the past - excluding the spike in the data
encouraging and refreshing at the same time. You could join me in welcoming them, not scaring them with false stories. Your choice
I didn’t.
Apart from where you criticised others for doing it whilst doing so yourself, you mean?
Kimbers the ONS data plots nicely with the timing of the different business cycles
But amusing to see the statistical abuse being used nonetheless!!!
You are aware of how the internet works, aren’t you? You know, the bit where when you write stuff down and it stays there for others to read?
Plots nicely - as an expert does that refer to correlation or causation?
Its great that people can read - true. Both the original post and the follow up saying “it doesn’t zokes, true”. The internet is great isn’t it
So you’re moving away from the idea that it might be business cycles, and accept that it might also be to do with some of the factors Mike and others have raised?
Only you seemed very forthright before when dismissing that it had anything to do with Brexit
I posted the same quote a mike earlier. The beauty of the internet everyone can read. I even clarified it too. But you keep making things up.
While you are here and as an expert, can I repeat my request for clarification? “Plots nicely” - refers to correlation or causation in the eyes of an expert?
“Plots nicely” on its own implies correlation, you know that.
However, “plots nicely” whilst denouncing others’ interpretations of the same data implies that you think your explanation has greater power than theirs, and that’s when we’re getting back to causation again.
Thank you. The first part of your reply makes sense. Glad we have cleared that up.
I denounced others doing something different and drawing causal links. So we agree. Now you can direct your misplaced ire to the correct places.
You will note that I deliberately avoided making direct causal links but did suggest looking at LT trends for a bit of perspective too. You could try the same if you like?
if you were half as smart , or funny, as you think you are this could be entertaining
Its just tragic.
I denounced others doing something different and drawing causal links.
Whilst that might appear to be the black letter law interpretation, we both know the intent - as does anyone else who regularly suffers your apparent air of self-superiority.
Perhaps you could have made yourself a bit clearer by saying something along the lines of:
"Well, the report doesn't actually imply causation. It is possible that Brexit is having an influence, but it's also possible that this data fits with an underlying trend *insert link to trend supporting your hypothesis here*"
Perhaps if you'd posted that rather than being a knob about it you'd a) have made a much clearer point, and b) avoided that last page of shite.
You do bring an interesting counterpoint to the discussion, but unfortunately the way in which you prosecute that case stinks, and unsurprisingly stops most others from engaging with you constructively. Now instead of going "I know you are, you say you are, but what am I?", perhaps reflect a little and this might be a better discussion.
Tres amusant zokes
Thanks for your very kind advice - I will park it with TJs. Perhaps you might consider too the point about intent. Instead of inventing intent so that you can argue against something that someone else hasn’t said, you might consider reading what is actually said instead. Just a thought?
For example. I began by welcoming the fact that net migration into the U.K. remained strong despite all the scare stories and ill-edukated comments about what is happening here. When others subsequently tried to exaggerate the impact of Brexshit I merely referred to the data and even quoted exactly what the ONS said recognising that Brexshit was one of many factors affecting the observed trends. Much clearer than putting a spin on it as you seem to be recommending.
I did avoid the mistake that you, even as an expert, made regarding confusing causation and correlation using clear words such a “plots neatly.” For some reason, you let you typing get ahead of your thinking and chose to ignore that inconvenient fact. Twice!! Less polite people may consider that to be “being a knob” but I wouldn’t go that far.
Nothing makes a thread stink more that constant flow of lies and misrepresentation of facts - largely in a weak attempt to bully those who have a different opinion away (the small band of leavers here) A very smelly form of prosecution.
Meanwhile EU people continue to come to the UK in large numbers, net migration remains positive, the economy is performing better than expected and we are making progress towards securing a new trade agreement with our friends in Europe. So much better than the doomsday narrative. No wonder so many people keep coming here. Won’t please the rabids mind, but hey ho
welcome to the UK
Whenever a discussion between people of differing opinions manages to start up in this thread, one troll derails it, and acts in a condescending manner towards all. Yes, he's polite, but you might say he is nearly always "being a knob", but you wouldn't, would you. Shame, because he does have the occasional interesting thing to say, but the time wasting to actual content ratio is now way off the chart.
We used to have some leavers here - but they got bullied away
think about that first - discussion was surpressed. Now it’s remainers who accept the result who are targeted. Look at the bully’s comments towards mefty (when he can be bothered) for example
but don’t be so hard on yourself either
We used to have some leavers here – but they got bullied away
The deafening silences when asked to come up with a plan or something no so full of holes it wouldn't hold cheese or water.
Then there was the laughing at the fantasy ideas and calling out the objections to people not of British decent, oh how we laughed at the precious snowflakes 😉
Perhaps the leavers are all just leaving hence the stats.
Bollocks - how do you post an image - really not bovvered now.
#FiguresOfFun
Mefty (and Jamba) both offered clarifications about how they would like to see Brexit pan out from here. Interesting contributions from both. IIRC you were as dismissive and condescending towards them as you are to those you call "undemocratic", @teamhurtmore. Mefty and myself were getting close to a some agreement on something, but it was hard too when every third post was some nonsense from you.
That wasn't you finest contribution Mefty! The editor is maddening to use now, isn't it.
"Nothing makes a thread stink more that constant flow of lies and misrepresentation of facts"
Well stop it then
Are you taking to yourself Ed? Hard to tell. But excellent advice.
Can you two get a room?
I know you are but what am I? FFS THM, grow up or bugger off. You're obviously a bright chap so why you choose to spend all your forum time trying to be condescending is very strange. Surely you have a bit more to offer?
That wasn’t you finest contribution Mefty! The editor is maddening to use now, isn’t it.
Yes
Not really very interested in discussing the relative merits of peoples' post styles - incredibly dull and repetitive - not difficult to ignore those that you feel have little to add, I personally think that THM is more sinned against, but no doubt your view is different.
not difficult to ignore those that you feel have little to add
Good skills.
he’s polite
he is not even close
We used to have some leavers here – but they got bullied away
think about that first – discussion was surpressed.
That is BS Jamby Flounced - the facts beat him to death - even you did it over Turkey, EZ debt risk and numerous other areas chewkw is incoherent
Still the obvious reason he is doing this is he think some people picked on jamby so he is determined to " pay it back"- he took a ban for him so he is a loyal , if somewhat misguided, friend
I personally think that THM is more sinned against
there is not much in it but you cannot possibly think his style of delivery is helping- I though you did not want to discuss styles. These days most seem to stick to just using facts against him. He seems to take that very well eh mefty
I must have missed you doing that, in recent pages you seem to exclusively be commenting on peoples's posting styles and intent.
We've gone through the looking glass a while back on this thread - all that's left is taking the piss or the quitlings defending one another and blowing smoke up one anothers' arses.. Facts matter not a jot anymore.
I must have missed you doing that
Is this the bit where i explain the difference between most and I ?
you must have missed the offer of an olive branch as well if we all just go back to debating. Do you think THM has ?
We used to have some leavers here – but they got bullied away
Brexit - STW response
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MrHoMSRZOS4
THM trying to explain Brexit to STW:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o5uM4s7ImG4
STW leavers watching this thread:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-iQLNR9btr4
they are fools
Gosh did someone call a brexie stupid? How very dare they.
<span style="font-size: 0.8rem;">Thanks for reading and not replying. I</span>ts a horrible punishment that I alone have to bear. I suspect many wish they could join me [ I dont get the personal grief you do so try looking closer to home] but this burden is mine alone to carry.
As for the religious i pointed out the bible says turn the other cheek and do unto other as you would have done unto you. It's true you are not doing this and shooting the messenger wont change this. the only defence is to lie and thankfully that is beneath you.
your paranoid fantasy of religion being picked on has been addressed by everyone from mark down [I assume] and certainly the mods have explained it to you.Try reading a vegan thread to see the special protection we get. No one gets what you want, we all get criticised- i think it the price of being in a democracy.
Save us you saying QED this time eh
I am till happy to just have an actual debate on the issue if anyone fancies it
the quitlings defending one another and blowing smoke up one anothers’ arses
more brexit bullshit from the tories.,
The awayday seems from media reports to be a form of "have your cake and eat it and is obviously to anyone wiuth half a brain not acceptable to the EU. The tories are in such a mess over this - hopeless, hapless and deluded. Nearly as much as those who still are pretendi9ng that everything is going well.
~So despite the wafflings of the tories on here the disaster is still getting worse and worse by the day. This government are so split and so deluded that they simply cannot do any sort of deal. They will not even be able to get bill passed in the commons it looks like.
"
Tusk told reporters: “I am glad the UK government seems to be moving towards a more detailed position. However if the media reports are correct I am afraid the UK position today is based on pure illusion. It looks like the cake [and eat it] philosophy is still alive.
“From the very start it has been a set principle of the EU27 that there cannot be any cherrypicking of single market à la carte. This will continue to be a key principle, I have no doubt.”
“It is not possible for UK to be aligned to EU when it suits and not when it doesn’t,” Varadkar said.
“The UK position needs to be backed up with real detail that can be written into a legal treaty with the EU. We are well beyond the point of aspirations and principle. We need detail.”
Oh look - the adults are talking and they are all saying one thing - Mays approach is simply not acceptable
Tusk revealed he would be meeting with May at Downing Street ahead of her speech, but insisted that the EU would set out its stall on the future in March whether the UK had a viable proposal or not.
“Our intention is to adopt these guidelines whether the UK is ready of its vision of our future or not. Naturally it would be much better if it were, but we cannot stand by and wait,” Tusk said.
Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform thinktank, said the approach agreed at Chequers seemed to be the so-called baskets model, where the UK would align with the EU in some areas, have some alignment in others, and none elsewhere.
“I think there’s no chance of the EU agreeing to the proposal,” he said. “The EU’s obsessed with the level playing field. It doesn’t trust any enforcement mechanism proposed by the British to police it adequately.”
The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, who met May in London earlier in the week to deliver an uncompromising call for a clear and realisable vision from the UK government, said: “As good friends [of the Brits], we can bring the difficult messages like I did at Downing Street, asking Theresa May to be as clear as possible on what she wants to achieve on the second phase of negotiations.”
Rutte said the EU wanted to stay “as closely associated with the UK as possible” but the British would have to abide by European rules for a close relationship. “For example membership of the internal market, that means certain obligations. Membership of the customs union, that means certain obligations.”
Mefty, not only is it not difficult to ignore those who have nothing of value to add, it’s actually remarkably easy.
It's also easy to ignore those who post facts that don't suit your ill-informed narrative
Lots of lovely quotes from real adults doing real negotiating that show just how far from the truth the leavers and tory apologists are and how far from any sort of deal the tories are. Finally after almost 2 years they look like they have finally got a position - and its one that is completely unaceptable to the EU as is completely obvious
THM: you just don’t get it do you?
If you didn’t use your condescending tone, you’d get your point across much more clearly, and you’d avoid most of the arguments that surround your posts. There would be a much higher quality of debate, and most of the negative aspects you yourself bemoan would cease to happen.
I can only assume therefore that you prefer to argue ineffectually than debate constructively. That’s defined quite clearly as trolling in Mark’s “our forum” post. I will be treating further argumentative posts from you as deliberate trolling, I suggest others do so too.
Yup - I suggest reporting them as well.
the problem is Zokes he has no argument to make. Everything he has claimed has been shot down in flames well supported with quotes from those involved and with facts and documents - whilst he can provide nothing to back his position