[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I like that Del. And with the Tories hemorrhaging membership, it might even be possible.

That’s Nick Clegg’s point in his book about stopping brexit. That and joining the Labour Party.

strong performance of Uk manufacturing

Hmmm: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42779699

We'll also skip-over the chronic under-investment in skills, poor productivity and a workforce demographic that falls over a cliff in 10-15years. I work in a sector where we've had to offshore work because there isn't the capability in the UK to do it.

"Yes it’s true Japan doesn’t benefit from freedom of movement with the EU. Instead it’s an insular failing country heading into a demographic death spiral. Perhaps not the best example for a brexiteer to use."

One that has just agreed a massive FTA with the EU that the UK will not benefit from.

How good a FTA will be get with the US...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42784380

i note farage was on 4 this morning bemoaning we're going to get brexit in name only.
sure hope so nige!

Economic confidence is suffering due to the UK’s impending withdrawal from the EU, Philip Hammond has said, as he pointedly knocked down demands from Boris Johnson for a “Brexit dividend” for the NHS, in a sign of growing divisions within the government.

His comments came in response to the decision by the International Monetary Fund to downgrade its forecast for UK growth in 2019, the year when the UK leaves the EU, to 1.5%, against an earlier forecast of 1.6%.

It upgraded its forecasts for much of the rest of the G7 on the back of a strengthening global economy. Germany was upgraded from 1.5% to 2%.

Frankly brexit in name only will be shit (assuming it means still in SM/CU and paying in with no say in the rules along the lines of norway). It's time for the adults to stand up and stop the nonsense.

Latte sales would collapse

Only one word to describe the IMF change - huge

But is it the least shit way of Leaving?

How ever we Leave, it won't be in a manner that the majority of people would prefer over maintaining membership (and keeping control).

The government are negotiating the least shit way of leaving.

[b]"This isn't what we [/b](singular) [b]voted for!"[/b]

Only one word to describe the IMF change - huge

I guess this may be an attempt at sarcasm, but a 0.4 percentage point swing between the euro area (+0.3) and the UK (-0.1) compared to their previous forecast seems pretty substantial to me.

And as for "the least shit way of leaving", good luck with that blind faith.

Don’t rely on luck, prefer preparation

Is the Brexit dividend for the NHS 350m a week ?

The chancellor does not see a brexit dividend only losses. ditto the IMF

I think they are best placed to know.

The Chancellor should be a back bench MP, he is finished. May is too weak to sack him.

If the Remain campaign had used forecasts mkre closely matching our economic experience of the last 18 months and the IMF’s (highly revised upwards numbers) Leave would have won by an even larger margin

Chris as Gove said NHS should have been given an extra £100m a week immediately post the Referendum and Chancellor should have laid out plan the other £250m a week starting in April 2019 assuming WTO tariffs and no money to the EU

What do you think about Carney Jamba?
Are we allowed to keep him?

Foolish child Jamba. Now go back and do your sums properly.

[quote=igm ]Foolish child Jamba. Now go back and do your sums properly.

anyone got a spare bus?

Is the Brexit dividend for the NHS 350m a week ?

Frankly brexit in name only will be shit (assuming it means still in SM/CU and paying in with no say in the rules along the lines of norway).

still better than Jamba's wet dream of no deal and WTO, whichever way you cut it.

[quote=jambalaya ]The Chancellor should be a back bench MP, he is finished. May is too weak to sack him.

This is on the basis that he's a remainer? Yet somehow he's still there jamba - how does that make you feel? 😆

If the Remain campaign had used forecasts mkre closely matching our economic experience of the last 18 months and the IMF’s (highly revised upwards numbers) Leave would have won by an even larger margin

Of course, because it was facts which were at the centre of the Leave campaign.

Chris as Gove said NHS should have been given an extra £100m a week

Oh no he didn't.

Look, behind you.

(I presume I've got the tone of this right...)

I am still confused Jambalaya, Surely if the UK signs all those trade deals, there won't be any tarifs income. To have both is a bit like having your cake and eating it ??

Yep. The UK would need to raise taxes to compensate.

I note that the UK gdp growth is trailing the eurozone by 1% - so almost exactly in line with the remainer predictions.
Q3-Q3 annual figures so it may have suddenly recovered in Q4.

Yup - contrary to all the leavers hysterical outpourings on here the remainers predictions are all coming true or have already come true. ( bar a large increase unemployment and there are other reasons for that rise being hidden ( rise in zero hours contracts and low paid parttime work that doen't take folk of benefits but does take the out of the unemployment count)

covered before - v diff stages in cycle. Direct comparison ^ misleading at best

TJ you claimed that the economy would contract by 4% before so 1.5% stable growth is a HUGE upgrade to your expectations 😉

Hi THM - more bullshine aimed my way?

Not you, just your incorrect statements. Keeps folks busy.

*points and laughs*

teamhurtmore - Member
...diff stages in cycle.

Genuine question. Given that they are not in the same brexit scenario as uk does the idea that we are on the same cycle but at different points still hold and if so why(otherwise you'll just leave an obtuse one or two word answer :wink:)?

TJ you claimed that the economy would contract by 4% before so 1.5% stable growth is a HUGE upgrade to your expectations

I don't think he said it would contract 4% before we left, did he?

We haven't left yet. Do you really think all the impacts have rippled through? Or are we just getting started? Or have we even yet to start?

Kilo - that is a very perceptive question, to which the answer is somewhere between depends and no one knows.
We may know in 10-20 years time.
Anyone who argues they know should check the definition of hubris.

Yes. We recovered much earlier, had a longer recovery and peaked earlier. The EA businesss cycle is lagging the US and the UK largely because their policy response (including stealing) came later.

Note the (correctly) bullish scenarios for Europe also include a positive outlook for major trading partners so the risks are obvious. Growth likely to peak in 18 but stay rel strong in 19. But don’t forget they need us too..... 😉

But don’t forget they need us too

For now, maybe. But will they gradually move away from using our goods and services as it just becomes too much bother to mess about with customs and tariffs and the risk of exchange rates?

Marginally

Forget the extreme arguments - we both need each other and in the end that will come through

And that ultimately is the fallacy of Brexit.

We know Brexshit is shit - by definition. The job of the politicians (and the smart people doing the real work behind them) is to make it less so. Then we can see how to adapt to the new world

Remember the Euro Zone is going to be very different in the future. It’s current structure cannot survive

we both need each other

To what extent though?

What do we make that people in France or Germany don't also make? When a German company is bidding to supply a French company, they will be in a more favourable position won't they? So that German company will then invest in increasing production which will be lost in the UK? Wouldn't it be ironic if that resulted in a brain drain *out of* the UK?

Or, if the UK is now on the same footing as the USA or China, we will have lost a possible competitive advantage (i.e. ease of trade) that would have differentiated us against those outside the EU?

Of course, this is why soft Brexit is so important. You seem rather confident that this will happen, THM, don't you?

I'm keen to find out:

1) What happens to imports to the EU from the UK in the next 5-10 years
2) What happens to the EZ
3) Is there possibly going to be a Domino effect? Will this be like the end of the Roman empire with big states breaking away leaving a rump?

jambalaya - Member

even larger margin

Word games are good, aren't they? The margin was tiny but by saying "even larger" we can insidiously suggest that it was large

I did not say the economy would contract by 4% before we left. I said that it would tip us into recession as a result of leaving. given we have gone from top of g7 for growth with low inflation to bottom with rising inflation its bang on track for what I and many others predicted.

But no - the rabid tories and leavers have to misstate about what others have siad in order to bolster their untenable position.

At the moment many companies are holding on frantically hoping that the government scrambles some sort of deal. when they don't as is likely then they will all leave the or scale back production enourmously once they cannot use the UK as a low wage low tax low worker protection entry point into the EU.

Remember - we haven't even left yet. The recession is coming - have no doubt about it.

You can go back and check. You misunderstood what the Project Fear forecasts were saying and were very adamant about it. It’s 000s of pages back.

We are slowing down as a natural part of the cycle. Brexit makes the slowdown more severe but there are balanced eg £ which after a lag has an impact in exports - already seen - but with the downside of inflation and pressure on real wages

That’s the beauty of economics - it confounds those who have monochrome filters. It’s much more dynamic and interconnected than that

‘Tis almost like systems engineering in that sense THM

😉

Perhaps. I will take your word for that 😉

One thing it isn’t is exact....