Forum menu
How much higher will the £ go during this period of huge economic damage?
isn't it a product of the relative weakness of the dollar not a strength of the pound ?
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/12/13/twelve_month.stm ]$ vs euro[/url]
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/currency/11/13/twelve_month.stm ]£ vs euro[/url]
John Cryan CEO Deutsche Bank confirmed in a soeech in Zurich that DB would move a few hundred relatively low level processing / admin jobs in the event of a “hard” Brexit. Nothing like the 1000’s reported in the press. Traders and high paid specialist jobs will stay in London
No massive surpise to me, I’ve been saying the same all along
it was the chief regulatory officer of Deutche bank who came up with the c4000 figure rather than the media Good to see that a few hundred job losses is a good result.
How about manufacturing industry Jamba? Any good news for those of us employed into the 'old fashioned' industries that made Britain Great? Do you have any inside info that will cheer us up - simple things like access to one of our largest markets under the same conditions as we have now?
Also how about the few 000 'low level processing /admin jobs?' Presumably **** 'em? It's not like they're your problem anyway.
Yes - the rebound in UK manufacturing is one of the most important pieces of domestic economic news in the past ten days. See ^.
Ignore the doomsdayers. Old fashioned is back in fashion !!! 😉
That's really great new THM. Any hints as to how quickly it will be reflected in real increases in wages and living standards?
the rebound in UK manufacturing is one of the most important pieces of domestic economic news in the past ten days
I wonder if this is companies buying stuff early whilst they still can do so easily? Fearing a price hike when tariffs are introduced?
Because we have a weak currency and are still in SM etc etc so exporting is great.Yes - the rebound in UK manufacturing is one of the most important pieces of domestic economic news in the past ten days.
When we're not in the SM etc and are trying to shift short shelf life products (I'm in food) across hard borders life will be substantially less pleasant.
Capn - depends on your time perspective. Given our poor long term productivity record, improvements in wages will take some time. In the sort term however, movements in £ impact inflation and hence real wages. We saw the negative effects when £ fell and will see the reverse now that £ has risen. So positive news coming.
But that is short term noise. Brexshit or no Brexshit the key to improving real wages and living standards remains productivity and supply side reforms which sadly take time and are therefore beyond the attention spans of most politicians. They prefer sticking plasters and snake oil instead. Neither work.
Long term more negative news irrespective of Brexshit.
That is why we are negotiating access to the SM in future. Let’s see what the terms of that access is......
Oh. SO this important piece of economic news isn't going to do any good in either the short or long term. I guess that's why they call it the dismal science.
Indeed, let's - and if the cost will hamstring the country for generations, maybe let's have a rethink on whether it's worth it, in a democratic fashion.
Yes it is. It’s positive. Manufacturing is performing well. Economic growth is higher than expected and inflation is likely to moderate as £ has strengthened
Nothing dismal in either the science or the result
The only thing that is dismal is the moaning denials when things turn out to be better than expected.
So we've had to spend a shit load of money to make things worse than before.
How that can be defined as a success , I'm sure someone will be along any second to tell me.
Aren't the forecasts of various economists for a dismal level of economic activity in 2018 as a result of brexit and the uk will lag behind eu
That is why we are negotiating access to the SM in future. Let’s see what the terms of that access is......
Ok.. so some serious questions then. You seem sure that we will retain favourable SM access and accept whatever terms are necessary, right?
This means that you think favourable SM access is what we will have to prioritise, right? This would therefore mean that the EU holds all the cards?
Kilo
No
Yes - different cycles
Mol
No - unsure but hopeful
No - we will negotiate them
Yes - clearly. It’s key
No - they also need to avoid negative impact. No deal is very bad for EU to and they know it cue comments from Irish and yesterday Spanish and Dutch
You mean no we wont have to accept the necessary terms but we will 'negotiate them'? But negotiating is hard - we ask, they say no, then we have to ask for less. In other words we don't always get what we want. Why so confident we will?
Yes - clearly. It’s key
Ah but it's key to you, cos you're an economist. However for politicians there is more than economics in play isn't there? That's why we had the damn referendum in the first place.
No deal is very bad for EU to and they now it cue comments from Irish and yesterday Spanish and Dutch
No deal is yes, but 'slightly unfavourable deal' is exactly what the EU need.
its also what they have said they will deliver
They cannot have a good deal for us as it encourages others to leave there has to be some pain for us
Secondly we want access to their market they hold all the cards
We will get a deal so shit neither leave nor remain will want it and THM will still call it a victory for democaracy and praise his leader
Yes. If we come out of this doing better then there'll be a domino effect and it'll break apart. After we leave we'll be a competitor to the EU though so they'll do all they can to put us at a competitive disadvantage. As you would with any competitor.
The only thing that is dismal is the moaning denials when things turn out to be better than expected.
So something turns out to be not quite as shit as expected and I am supposed to be happy when it is still more shit that what we had before...
Yes negotiate
Yes it’s hard
We won’t, both sides will compromise. We have already seen that
No, not because I am an economist. It’s because everything else depends on the nature of our future access to the SM. Hence as I have argued consistently ^ this has to be the priority. Horses and carts.
I think they will move beyond the games. In the end we need a win:win not a lose:lose (w:w in a relative sense as it’s worse than before. But for all but the undemocrsts thats history)
It takes a very narrow mindset (excuse me but true) to simply define us a competitor. We will continue to be major trading partners whose fortunes are intertwined
Kerley. We have to deal with what’s in front of us, not what we wish was in front of us. History is history. We are dealing with the present and the future now. Ok, should say some of us. That’s a personal choice.
FT article seems to disagree with your no. "UK growth to slow to 1.5% in 2018, leading economists predict"
teamhurtmore - Member
Yes negotiate
Negotiate, lol!
I've got a car worth 4 grand, it's not for sale, so if you want it that badly, I'll take 8 grand.
Pleasure doing business with you.
Yes you were burgled but not as much was stolen as you first feared ...now three cheers for the good news 😉So something turns out to be not quite as shit as expected
PS How shit it turns out remains to be seen as you have only looked in one room and then decided it was not as bad as feared
It doesn’t disagree. Smack on my estimate. We are in a slowdown phase. We recovered earlier and we peaked earlier
But 1.5% is better than project fear
I preferred Chewk.
This is an interesting redefinition of the concept of win-win to describe a situation where both parties are worse off than before...
Get with the game - we know that. It’s s given
We can make the future either better than we expect or worse that’s the choice reflected in w:w from here or l:l
So the way to a win-win is to expect it to be really really bad, and then be relieved when it isn’t quite as bad as you expected. Isn’t that precisely what you are accusing “remoaners” of doing?
No it isn’t
Yes it is.
Used the strong £ to buy some stock yet zippy?
What irks me with the jingoistic BS that seems to come out of the shite papers is the fact that thru greed or globalisation the country seems to have been effectively sold off doesn't get mentioned.
All the quintessentially UK Car brands are purely that a brand. (Other than a few of the smaller ones like Morgan)
MINI,Rolls Royce,Bently and Aston Martin being owned by gasp foreigners could be relocated anywhere.
Now the whole concept of taking control seems quite bizarre when you've actually not much to take control of.
Oh and what about 'Type approval' that little delight 🙂
Sorry about the rant I stood near some Daily Mails and Suns in Aldi today and may have been infected.
We are going to be much better off outside the EU. The EU27 are going to be worse off as there is no likelihood of another member whi can replace us in terms of trade and budget contribution. Every new trade deal we sign will mean less business for the EU as we buy elsewhere.
There is no such thing as a Brexit Bill. The £35-39bn represents what we owe for having been a member and extending the SM “benefits” until Dec 2020. It is NOT a cost of leaving, its the true cost of being a member of the EU
its the true cost of being a member of the EU
It's not. Money goes both ways when you're a member of the EU.
nor is there 27 countries ready to replace them for us and we lostThe EU27 are going to be worse off as there is no likelihood of another member whi can replace us in terms of trade and budget contribution.
as it will fr us when they doEvery new trade deal we sign will mean less business for the EU as we buy elsewhere.
Its weird you can see how it harms them but think this smaller nation economy v the EU with less wealth and power is someone going to be great as they crumble without us. Its very one sided, we will both be harmed, us more than them, and there are no winners here only degrees of losing and that competition we do win.
Its weird you can see how it harms them but think this smaller nation economy v the EU with less wealth and power is someone going to be great as they crumble without us.
Once you start chanting the mantra at the brainwashing sessions it doesn't take long. Just repeat enough and shout it out loud if it's ever looking like the argument is lost.
Is that how remoaners knew how to pick up the baton?
Perhaps your great wisdom could explain jambalayas comments there.
No the first para makes no sense apart from the budget contribution bit. But we know the score with the leave narrative. That’s ancient history
It's not. Money goes both ways when you're a member of the EU.
@sr yes it is, we will be getting back 60% of our annual contribution 2019-2020 and our rebate. The rest is things like the pension fund deficit the EU has built up over the last 40 years, ie the true higher cost of being a member
ie the true higher cost of being a member
Only of you completely ignore any benefits and increase in economic activity due to being a member.
@mike we are going to be much better off as trade opportunites outside the EU are much greater than those within, as an independent nation we’ll be juch more fleet of foot to take advantage. Also we will have distanced ourselves from the EU / eurozone time bomb. As for the EU they’ll be out off pocket by €10-12bn pa and have an historically very good customer now buying more goods elsewhere. What next for EU expansion ? The game of ever increasing membership papering over the substantial cracks has decisively turned a corner. The remaining larger nations like France and Germany will be under substantial pressure to pay more and accept those job seekers who would previously have gone to the UK.