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Unless May surprises everyone and pulls a deal off!
so Jamba - what about the loss of 5% of the NHS workforce since brexit? usually we recruit 40 000 nurses per year from the EU. this year almost none.
“Brexit will blow a hole in the EU budget”
Yes it will blow a hole in the UK budget too as we now need to spend a huge amount more on stuff we used to get as part of membership. You seem very excited about screwing people over.
teamhurtmore - Member
Unless May surprises everyone and pulls a deal off
As your criteria for success is a bespoke deal you will be happy with anything. Any deal will leave the UK worse off. Get the bunting out for that street party.
[quote=teamhurtmore ]Unless May surprises everyone and pulls a deal off!
i think she would surprise even herself...
Does that make you happy?“Brexit will blow a hole in the EU budget”
The labour party appears ambivalent to Brexit
No thinking person can still consider that Corbyn even "appears" ambivalent to Brexit. He might let a few of the smart people around him play games to try and keep things sticky for the Conservatives, but he'll whip his MPs for Brexit when it counts. He's made that clear.
As your criteria for success is a bespoke deal you will be happy with anything
Proof reading (even) might be a good idea?
The deal may and co keep on saying they want is simply not on offer and never going to happen
THM now that you've seen how successful brexit is have you changed your mind about being a remainer?
Does that make you happy?
Of course it makes him happy, even if he is planning on skipping off to live in the EU.
It’s happenend???
Sorry zippy I missed that....
But no, I have not
The deal may and co keep on saying they want is simply not on offer and never going to happen
Odd that everyone is wasting so much time on this and that Europeans are now talking about the importance of ensuring a wider deal
Still much better to keep making things up to suit the moaner narrative
Are you referring to the "moaner narrative" in that David Davies letter?
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No
My favourite line … with some additions…
[i]"None of these statements take account of the[/i] [b]possible[/b] [i]implementation period or the future[/i] [b]unknown[/b] [i]relationship"[/i]
…while the "bespoke" deal is so vague, and so far down the line, what does he expect? For EU institutions to keep saying "wait and see" in their advice, when March 2019 is just around the corner for companies planning for periods any longer than a year (ie all successful companies).
haha that letter is laughable, the hypocrisy of the Tories blaming the EU for talking up no deal sums up how ludicrous the brexiters are
“Does that make you happy?” 😉
For EU institutions to keep saying "wait and see" in their advice, when March 2019 is just around the corner for companies planning for periods any longer than a year (ie all successful companies).
Indeed they must have been really irritated by their own sides silly delaying tactics too. Especially when the fudges were announced....
There has been little if any “disastrous” effects
Significant loss of growth? going from the top of the growth table to the bottom? Loss of 10% of the NHS qualified workforce, rising inflation, stagnant wagees ie cuts in spending power. Loss of EU institutions, loss of financial services that actually keep the UK afloat financially? Loss of inward investment, companies moving out of the UK etc etc. Seems pretty disastrous to me. Cuts in living standards for the vast majority of the UKs population allied to disastrous economic performance from the country a a whole?
And we have not actually left yet - this is just the beggining
No.“Does that make you happy?”
You?
As someone who thinks it would be better for us to remain a member of the EU, but insists that we accept whatever will replace it (even though our government hasn't even agreeed what that should be, never mind what it can be once agreed with our largest/larger partner in all respects), are you happy with Davies scrabbling around in the dark?
First error in first sentence. Still proving the guardian comment correct and ignoring the revision up to the last growth data point
Please read up on financial services too. Impact again downgraded significantly from intital project fear claims
The only rational conclusion is that th UK has weathered the expected negative impact of the Brexshit vote better than expected but that doesn’t fit the moaner narrative and desperate need for exaggeration. On top of that both sides have compromised in order to get through phases one - considered impossible by remoaners - and are now preparing stage two. Far too slow of course, but inching our way forward despite all the crap
Stop moaning.
"Negative impact of the Brexshit vote"
"Far too slow of course"
I’m not - we are making progress albeit too slow but this is the EU after all
And Merkel has here own problems, ditto Spain and the CEE. They are bored of brexit already but the budget is a wake up call. Time to stop farting around
I’m not - we are making progress albeit too slow but this is the [s]EU[/s] Dave Davis after allI’m not - we are making progress albeit too slow but this is the EU after all
40 000 eu nurses lost, 1000s of EU doctors lost,
On the basis that there were only 58,698 staff from the EU in England in June 2016 it is safe to say these figures bear no relation to the truth. Indeed the number of EU nationals employed by the NHS was slightly higher a year later being 61,891 so there has been an increase. Source for figures NHS statistics published [url= http://content.digital.nhs.uk/7572 ]here[/url]. 2017 figures on 22 September, 2016 on 6 January.
Hmmm - I'll look into it further mefty. I was paraphrasing stuff I had seen reported in reliable media
EU wants / needs to spend more on a number of areas inc border control and DEFENCE.
sounds eminently sensible. it was you pointing out how badly the borders were being looked after wasn't it? some mechanisms in place to allow european military forces to work more cohesively would be wise as well. shame we're not going to be involved. safer borders for them means safer borders for us.
EU nationals have fallen as a percentage of those joining the NHS
In 2015/16, 11% of those joining the NHS were EU nationals (counting those for whom a nationality was known). In 2016/17, this fell to 9%. For nurses the percentage of EU joiners fell from 19% in 2015/16 to 12% in 2016/17.In 2016/17, 11% of nurses leaving the NHS were EU nationals, up from 9% in 2015/16.
In 2016/17, the percentage of joiners with EU/EEA nationality fell, whilethe percentage of leavers with EU/EEA nationality rose.
This change was particularly pronounced for the Nurses and Health
Visitors staff category, as the charts below show. In 2015/16, 19% of
nurse joiners were of EU nationality, while in 2016/17 this fell to 12.4%.
Meanwhile the percentage of nurse leavers with an EU nationality rose
from 8.9% to 11.3%
NHS Digital, the agency that collects data on the health service, found that in the 12 months to June, 9,832 EU doctors, nurses and support staff had left, with more believed to have followed in the past three months.This is an increase of 22% on the previous year and up 42% on two years previously. Among those from the EU who left the NHS between June 2016 and June 2017 were 3,885 nurses and 1,794 doctors.
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Yet as a percentage EU participation in NHS workforce still went up from 5% to 5.2%.
EDIT: Good to see you are still struggling, 9,000 did leave but 13,000 came in, hence the increase. The simple fact is there has been a slow down in growth of EU participation, but no reduction.
Mefty - OK - must remember not to rely on my obviously faulty memory 🙂 good call.
30 000+ is the actual shortage of nurses in the NHS ie whole time equivalents across the UK not just england. As many posts are part time this is equivalent to 40 000 bodies
Usually there are around 1000 nurses a month from the EU apply to join the NMC register ie register to work as nurse in the UK this has dropped to a few dozen. ie there are 10 000 less EU nurses a year coming to the UK
Many of these applicants will work outside the NHS or for agencies who work in the NHS thus not appearing on the NHS workforce however their absence still makes the nursing shortage worse.
So - comparing apples to pears in our different numbers ( NHS / total registerd nurses, UK / England, all NHS staff / registered nurses) and also me muddling numbers.
Should have been "10 000 less EU nurses a year coming to the UK contributing hugely to the 40 000 headcount nurse shortage in the NHS"
Better? I shall endeavour to be more accurate. I sometimes forget as I dip inand out of this thread that alongside all the baiting and sneering and point scoring there are still people actually reading the debate as a debate.
I shall go and stand in a corner
mefty - Member
Yet as a percentage EU participation in NHS workforce still went up from 5% to 5.2%.
indeed as Meftys report points out the % of unskilled EU staff increased, whilst the % of EU doctors & Nurses decreased
mefty - MemberYet as a percentage EU participation in NHS workforce still went up from 5% to 5.2%.
Less Spanish nurses and more Polish cleaners?
Spain has historically been a good source of nurses for the UK as Spain trains more than they need. anecdotally they have stopped coming to the UK
Lots of "churn" with EU nurses so more leaving and less arriving quickly has the effect of creating shortages
Usually there are around 1000 nurses a month from the EU apply to join the NMC register ie register to work as nurse in the UK this has dropped to a few dozen. ie there are 10 000 less EU nurses a year coming to the UK
On the basis that there are only 22 thousand EU nurses in England, the number of EU nurses simply can't have been growing by 1,000 a month.
Mefty 22000 EU nurses in the english NHS or 22000 eu nurss working in the UK? Big difference
A similar amount left. They have stopped arriving but continued to leave. they don't tend to be here permanently - its usually only a short time that EU nurses work in the UK a year or two at an ( informed) guess
quote]indeed as Meftys report points out the % of unskilled EU staff increased, whilst the % of EU doctors & Nurses decreased
2016 EU doctor as % of total 8.9%, 2017 9.34% so wrong again. Nurses were up to by 0.84%.
mefty - English nhs or UK workforce? don't muddle the two.
this for England says otherwise
http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7783
English nhs or UK workforce? don't muddle the two.
England as I have been clear throughout, but my understanding there are no major differences although figures more difficult to put together.
this for England says otherwise
No it doesn't.
No it doesn't
1.2 Changes before and after the EU
referendum
The table below shows the change in the percentage of staff with EU
nationality over time. The percentage has changed little since the 2016
EU referendum. In June 2017, 5.6% of staff held EU nationality (of staff
with a known nationality), compared with 5.5% in June 2016.[b] However
in June 2017 the percentage of doctors and nurses with EU nationality
fell slightly[/b]. The percentage of clinical support staff with EU nationality,
however, reached a new high in June 2017
oh yes it does
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mefty
The numbers I have quoted are UK workforce ie nhs and non nhs Are you quoting NHS only or total workforce?
the reason its important is that short term workers will not all appear on the NHS workforce and a difference in short term workers recruitment and retention makes a difference to total numbers much quicker than if they were long term workers. Many eu doctors work for locum agencies and sometimes are not even living in the UK
Doctors went up as % according to that report, nurses slightly down but report disagrees with source data so not clear how they have adjusted.
Brexit secretary’s leaked letter to Theresa May claims UK business interests damaged by EU’s warnings on no-deal scenario
so even DD agrees that Exit is already damaging UK. I'm not certain what he expects the EU to do. Ignore the (very) often threaten 'no deal'?
🙄
obviously this decreaese in the % of EU workers joinging/increase in those leaving is against a desperate recruitment drive to try and mittigate the last decade or so of 'efficiency savings' that have given the NHS its worst staffing crisis.
Just had lunch with 3 jr doctors all recounting how bad their shifts are at the moment.
Its fairly Obvious that the weak £ makes the UK a less attractive place for foreign workers
Bottom line. Scare mongering about Brexshit impact on NHS is OTT
there are still people actually reading the debate as a debate.
As you say, debate is only possible with informed debaters. Consistent track records of posting stuff that is simply untrue merely prevents/detracts from debate
Since the vote, this had been a constant theme from remoaners as guardian article noted
The clear example above is the UK economy. Growth has slowed slightly and had been revised up on initial releases. It was slowing anyway given where we were/are in the current cycle. Brexshit didn’t help but the outcome was better than expected. None of those trends support the exaggerated adjectives used ^ to describe the performance of the UK economy post Brexshit vote
Debate is possible if people are willing to stick reality rather than fantastIc distortions of reality
Actually...I think I prefer the driving thread.