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Yes, pleased to hear that JC magic (tragic <- new one 😂) grandad has finally decided to speak "his" mind that Labour is now a remain party.
Game, set, match. 😄
JC will be Labour leader for a long time.
Labour are still a pro-Brexit party.
I think you need to go back and take a look at the indicative voting.
More accurately, Labour is an overwhelmingly anti-Brexit party that’s been Car-jacked and now has a rabidly pro-Brexit cabal, cackling manically at the wheel who couldn’t give a toss what the majority strapped in the back seat think
So, the Commons has passed a law making it harder for Boris (or anyone else) from ending parliament early to force a default no-deal. It’s not quite the outright block some are saying it is, but it’ll be much harder.
Sky and BBC aren’t obviously reporting it at the moment, focusing on the TV Debate and equalised marriage in NI.
The bigger issue (for me) is the the lack of clarity from Labour is dividing the Remain vote. So even if we get a GE before October it may not be enough to stop the madness.
Kier Starmer has just said that the Labour Party will take a decision on what its policy will be once a general election has been called.
The noises coming out of the Boris camp is that when he wins he will immediately call a snap general election on an unambiguous leave ‘no matter what!’ Ticket.
So what will Labour do then? It’ll immediately mire itself in the same endless twisting and turning procrastination and indecision that’s gone on so far
They need some leadership that will actually lead and make a decision, one way or another. Right now It’s just the same endless fudge full of what if’s and maybes and caveats. It’s pathetic!
It’ll immediately mire itself in the same endless twisting and turning procrastination and indecision that’s gone on so far
It's not procrastination and indecision. It's hedging. There's a huge difference
They may like to think of it as hedging. But it just looks exactly like procrastination and indecision.
Whatever you or I to refer to it as is largely irrelevant though. Its clearly not working.
The bottom line is that Labours hedging/dithering once an election was called would most likely deliver Boris a majority or, horror of horrors, some Boris/Farage freak show
That should be enough to focus minds in the labour leadership. I live in hope, but not expectation
TBF any announcements made about a forthcoming election are going to be huge 'if this, then that, or that' statements, depending on the environment at the time ( are we in or out at that point, for instance ), so it would it would be equally pointless.
Kier Starmer has just said that the Labour Party will take a decision on what its policy will be once a general election has been called.
The noises coming out of the Boris camp is that when he wins he will immediately call a snap general election on an unambiguous leave ‘no matter what!’ Ticket.
I believe their manifesto is voted on by, I don't know who actually, but they don't write it until an election is called, the statement yesterday said the same.
Boris is just mad enough to do that with them somewhere between 3rd and 4th in the Polls. Yes lots of people will return to form at a GE, but they'll lose seats (as will Labour) in all sorts of ways.
I guess that's where we are though, he knows, as does the rest of the world - Brexit is all but impossible with the MPs we have now. 10% seem to want to go no deal for the sheer chaos of it, 30% want some kind Tory Deal, 20% want some kind of Labour-esq deal and 60% know there's no way to achieve that doesn't mean a lot of suffering and they don't want the blame for it.
Here's the relevant section from the briefing doc given to Labour MPs…
So, yeah, mostly "we'll work it out later"… which could be seen as wise hedging, or just can-kicking, depending on who you've come to trust over the last few years.
If that last line changed to "- and that deal would be put to a public vote by a Labour government along with the option to remain", then I'd be up for campaigning for Labour in this seat, never mind voting for them. It might yet happen… and the messiah himself might utter that policy line once an election is called… we'll see… it does feel close though… but that could just be some residual wishful thinking.
it does feel close though
It feels close because that's what the policy is.
Then I'm sure he'll say so soon enough… hopefully, maybe, possibly… fingers crossed…
They may like to think of it as hedging. But it just looks exactly like procrastination and indecision.
Not to me, it's pretty clear what they are trying to do.
Whatever you or I to refer to it as is largely irrelevant though. Its clearly not working.
The motivation is relevant in your assessment of the situation. However you are right in that it is not working. But it's easy to sling mud - coming up with something that WOULD work is the tricky part isn't it?
I think that their research tells them that simply switching to remain would cause even bigger problems. We can guess all we like but we don't really know - if anyone does. But with the polls as they are I don't think the Tories will have a majority - I don't think anyone will. So then the big question will be who forms the government? That would be a right old bun-fight.
I think that their research tells them that simply switching to remain would cause even bigger problems. We can guess all we like but we don’t really know – if anyone does
I doubt that considering all the independent research and commentary to the contrary.
It’s more that Corbyn and his close allies have always been stubborn, less open to compromise than even Theresa May and highly ideological. That shows in their voting records.
They were interviewing a pollster on Radio 4 yesterday Molls. It was really interesting. He basically said that none of them have got a clue how the present 4-way split would play out in terms of seats at a General Election, and anyone who says they do is lying or stupid.
Because when you've 4 parties all polling within spitting distance of each other, tactical voting ceases. A lot of people previously who's preference would be to vote for the Lib Dems, for example, but considered it a wasted vote which would let the tories win, so they hold their noses and vote labour. Now they'll look at the polls and say '**** it! I'm voting for my first choice as they've just as much chance as my second option, soI don't have to vote tactically. Same applies with Farages lot and the Tories
As the polling now shows, this is massively damaging to the main parties as they are now no longer the only game in town. Daz's idea that the voters who deserted labour at the local and EU elections will return at a GE in significant numbers looks less and less likely as this polling deadlock continues
One things for sure. The next general election is going to be a car crash and absolutely impossible to call
In fairness you would need some very good analytical models running to see exactly what impact going all out remain, versus hedging, versus Labour Brexit taking into consideration on how each voter in each constituency would vote. What would tip them to Brexit party, what would tip them to Lib Dems, even if they are tipped to Lib Dems are enough people tipped to matter etc,. etc,.
Exactly why I have said it is easy to comment from the sidelines but doing the analysis for the various scenarios is another matter.
Daz’s idea that the voters who deserted labour at the local and EU elections will return at a GE in significant numbers looks less and less likely as this polling deadlock continues
The evidence of pretty much every general election has shown that voters retreat to the two main parties despite poll changes in intermediate elections. 2017 was one of the more extreme examples of this. The next one is different obviously but I think the 4 way split will move back towards being weighted in favour of the two main parties. The main reason for thinking this is that tribal anti-tory sentiment is extremely strong in normal times and even more so today with Boris at the helm. I may well be wrong but I think many voters will return to labour once the campaign gets going.
The evidence of pretty much every general election has shown that voters retreat to the two main parties despite poll changes in intermediate elections. 2017 was one of the more extreme examples of this.
This is true.
From the Labour side of things it was said that JC enjoyed a surge of support from new, young voters, but new young voters often vote Labour (it's sad by cynical old Gammon types that they switch to the Tories when they "grow up a bit") and post-election data showed this wasn't unusual.
Labour did better than expected because, at the last moment, older middle aged centrics (like myself) looked at the likelihood of a Pro-EU party actually winning their seat, added that to some last minute pro-EU words from Labour and decided that they didn't want to 'waste' their vote and couldn't bare to stay away. In return we got an emboldened Jeremy Corbyn pushing for his version of Brexit.
Unlike 2017 I personally won't vote tactically again, or for Labour under Corbyn what's the point? UKIP/Brexit haven't won a thing, but because of their popular vote they form policy by proxy. Labour, as official opposition, don't.
P-jay's point is a fair one, and to expand on that, the reason that policy is shaped by UKIP/Brexit is that it is they who currently will steal Tory voters. Labour need a stance on a number of things, brexit being the obvious that will steal more votes from the left of the Tory party than brexit will from the right. At that point Labour become relevant and influential.
At that point Labour become relevant and influential.
The two words that scream out at you when you look at Jeremy Corbyn
The Tory's have conducted themselves over the last 3 years like the labour party wasn't even there. As to all intents and purposes, it wasn't. Still isn't, so can be duly ignored
Farage, on the other hand, terrifies them to such a degree that he might as well have just issued a list of demands to the Tory party onthe day of the referendum result. He has consistently driven their policy further and further to the extreme right for years now, and continues to do so.
Hunt and Johnson are presently just parroting his latest statements.
It’s terrifying!
Farage, on the other hand, terrifies them
Not because of his skill and capability though. Corbyn's cleverer than Farage by miles. It's just that Farage has given himself a much easier challenge.
Sorry Molls - and it pains me to say this, it really does - but Farage is the most influential and effective politician of his generation
He has achieved all his goals, and then some, during the course of which he's taken not a shred of responsibility for any of it. He's forced the Tory party to do all his dirty work for him while he's just sat in the pub, or gobbed off about it on Question Time.
During that time Jeremey Corbyn has achieved the square root of **** all!
it pains me to say this
+1
Incredibly effective, I assume it's a combination of his "plain speaking", a significant chunk of cash (that no other political party can match because of election laws) pushing him along and the media's desperate need for "balance", no matter how idiotic it is. All gets him in front of a susceptible public and pushes against the door of public opinion that's been wedged open by the ERG and the Right wing press over the last 20 years.
Hate and admire (wrong word but closest I can come up with) him in equal measure.
Sorry Molls – and it pains me to say this, it really does – but Farage is the most influential and effective politician of his generation
Influential yes, but I didn't say he wasn't influential, just that he wasn't skillful. He jumped on an easy bandwagon and has to do basically nothing except say BREXIT! at the top of his voice. Skilled political operator he is not. It was an open goal. If he somehow became prime minister he'd be worse than useless.
Who would you rather have running the country out of Corbyn, Johnson or Farage?
Skilled political operator he is not. It was an open goal. If he somehow became prime minister he’d be worse than useless.
he's achieved exactly his goals and let someone else deal with all the downsides, if that's not skilled I don't know what it.
Who would you rather have running the country out of Corbyn, Johnson or Farage?
Wow, what a choice that is. Corbyn, just. But that's like asking if I want to be hit in the balls, face or kidney.
just that he wasn’t skillful
Eh? You're kidding, right?
When Farage embarked on his mission Brexit didn't even exist, except in the mind of a tiny minority of absolute headbangers at the far right fringes of the Tory party and members of the National Front and BNP.
Farage managed to shed its openly racist clothes, gave it a respectable front, then made it mainstream, then forced to the very top of the political agenda, to the point that the Prime Minister had no option but to give him the referendum he'd craved for twenty years, which through a well managed, emotive, populist campaign he then won (against absolutely everyones expectations). Successfully deposing said PM in the process, he st about ensuring Daves successors were then so scared of him they basically allowed him to dictate the subsequent political direction of the country
Quite some skill, no?
If he somehow became prime minister he’d be worse than useless.
As I've already mentioned, he has no interest in that. Never has. Never will. He wants power without responsibility, and he's got it in spades! He's achieved everything he set out to do, while taking responsibility for none of it, and leaving everyone else to clean up his mess
Who would you rather have running the country out of Corbyn, Johnson or Farage?
None of the above, preferably
Boris.
At least then it will be the enemy ****ing the country up and not the left.
It’ll be entertaining as well, Corbyngeddon would be a very dull slide into economic ruin.
The hate headlines are talking of brexit betrayal by Corbyn.
That's a step in the right direction .
In other brexit dividend news,
To nobodies surprise whatsoever, another large company announces Brexodus.
he’s achieved exactly his goals and let someone else deal with all the downsides, if that’s not skilled I don’t know what it.
Even I can score in front of an open goal. Doesn't make me a great footballer.
Farage didn't create Brexit out of a pro-EU country. People have been anti-EU for decades, since the start even. The Sun, Mail and co whipped it up almost every week, Farage just opened his mouth first. Political skill is forging a consensus and creating support. Farage doesn't do this. He just put his face to a feeling that was already there.
He might not be politically skillful, but you can't deny he is good at what he does.
In other news I understand he had said that in a ge, if the conservatives stand on a platform of no deal brexit, he won't field candidates against them.
People have been anti-EU for decades, since the start even
In the first referendum, 17,378,581, 67.23% of the vote, seemed to think it was a good idea.
He might not be politically skillful, but you can’t deny he is good at what he does.
Yes, populism he is good at that. But that is easier than actually trying to sell something that might actually be better for people. It is very easy to just say all the problems are the fault of immigrants and it has been used many times over the years by many people. Only a ****er would actually think that is the right thing to do though.
It looks like even the (relatively) sane Tory MPs are now going full ‘No Deal’ now that Boris is to be crowned
We truly are absolutely ****ed!
Amber Rudd embraces no deal Brexit as ministers pitch to Johnson
They’re now all hell bent on this insanity! God help us!
Well, looks like the big spending for no deal prep will occur then, if every Tory MP with an eye on a key job supports doing so… watch where that money gets spent… there's a lot of money being thrown at key Tory politicians (rather than the Party) now… it'll get returned many times over in the autumn, I suspect.
I'm not that convinced that Farridge is a skilled operator - the Tories were swinging into an anti-EU position back when IDS was their leader and Stuart Wheeler was bankrolling them, he surfed a wave and used other people's money.
Amber Rudd backing no deal is scary.
he surfed a wave and used other people’s money.
He has certainly been influential but, as you say, there was a large part of the tory party following the same path and also a significant portion of the press.
Amber Rudd backing no deal is scary.
Completely predictable though.
So… in seats traditionally a Tory/Labour battle ground, where other parties have had little to no presence in the past, it's still received wisdom that people will return to the big two when it comes to an actual vote, rather than answering polling questions …
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1149456877509648389?s=21
By all means argue that Brexit policy isn't a factor… but only if you genuinely believe that, please.
Lol one poll in one constituency does not a government make, but still...
Lol one poll in one constituency does not a government make, but still…
That's not a poll, it's an election result.
Whoops! My mistake, sorry. Good for the lib Dems!
Quick Q, who are YORK ? they are more popular than UKIP or LAB
LAB should be worried...
That is an absolutely incredible result.
How did that region vote in the Referendum?
Did they not field a candidate last time or something?
Quick Q, who are YORK ? they are more popular than UKIP or LAB
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yorkshire_Party
LAB should be worried…
A council seat which are often even more of an excuse for protest votes than the EU elections.
cheers Verses - not going to make the usual sarky comments about a Yorkshire republic 🙂 I actually am happy that political reform is being stood for, we need it in the UK.
just spotted that LAB nearly were beaten by an independent !!!
I don't disagree Dissonance but they are the opposition and have taken a big hit, as have the in power party
How did that region vote in the Referendum?
60% leave apparently...
EDIT, correction, East yourshire as a wjole voted 60% leave.
Yeah, East Riding is the smallest you can zoom in on for 2016 referendum result:
Remain: 78,779
Leave: 120,136
Bridlington has always been very Tory… and if you've been there… you'd guess to it having had a high Leave vote.
Meanwhile, our shiny new MEPs are off to a glorious start.
https://twitter.com/RowlandBrexitSE/status/1148987466721964034
... and also, probably needs geography lessons.
Meanwhile, our shiny new MEPs are off to a glorious start.
On the one hand she has already attended as many meetings as Farage managed over several years.
On the other hand looks like she did sod all of any use there.
I like the idea of some poor sod halfway up the Seine quietly fishing suddenly having a submarine torpedo them. Not sure its overly practical though.
He does seem a proper man of the people though. Guess he is trying to make a name for himself.
I think this is great - I honestly didn't realise we were going to annex northern France and the low countries - awesome!
That Bridlington result! Makes me hope the LDs can win round my way. Time to help them canvass, perhaps.
It's only a local ward, so not that informative, but it is interesting that in the kind of strongly traditionally Conservative area, where the "if you don't vote Labour, you'll get Conservative" narrative can be strongest, things can pan out this way. I think "staying away" was a big part of the result here… the turnout was low… but fear that may well be so in a general election as well… plenty of people thinking "none of them" currently.
That's the thing though, yes small wards up for grabs through attrition.. But are showing interestingly large swings to remain parties .. Peterborough was another interesting one.. Widely thought to be a home run for the brexit party, labour just about snatched it from the tories.
Both staunch leave areas previously..
The lib dems seem to be attracting a lot more remainers than the brexit party are attracting leavers.
Labour and Conservativea are losing ground in both scenarios in staunch leave areas.
A GE would be impossible to predict.. There are not 2 main parties any more, there are 3. Possibly 4 if the brexit party manage to field a decent number of candidates, but that will mostly dilute the tory vote.
We might see a truly hung parliament with 33/33/33. Or 25/25/25/25 %
I now hope labour stay a leave party as we don't want the remain vote split.
Carry on grandad.
Well the dems and Greens have forged an alliance along with other fringe remain parties to not field candidates in areas the others are likely to win. There was a Welsh one (brecon?) where the greens stepped aside to allow a lib dem victory rather than dilute the remain vote.
I can't see tragic grandad going along with that. He's far to authoritarian..
Labour really need shot of him.
Well worth a read from the New Statesman
With Johnson, Corbyn and Farage at the helm, Britain is heading for disaster
The analysis won’t come as any great surprise to anyone, but the context is interesting
I now hope labour stay a leave party as we don’t want the remain vote split.
Carry on grandad.
+1
In some ways worst case scenario is Labour changing tack at this late stage having not put forward any convincing arguments for remain to keep their core support on side but seeing that they've lost traction, switching to remain and both alienating any their core leave leaning labour supporters and diluting the core remain vote that have already gone to LibDem/Green.
I notice that Mogg has asked
"Who needs the EU?"
following Englands world cup victory yesterday, despite having an Irish captain.
I can't fathom how the future success of our finance, service and manufacturing sectors can be correlated with Ben Stokes ability to smash a boundary through deep cover.
You may have missed this, but the words average leave voter, reason, sense and logic, do not make happy bedfellows.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/most-fragile-states-in-2019-yemen
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Just keeps on giving...
It gets better. Even as there's the prospect of the Tories self-destructing, Labour (or at least one of them) come to the rescue:
The Labour MP Sarah Champion has told the BBC’s Politics Live (not to be confused with the original) that if necessary she would accept no-deal and that she cannot be sure how she would vote on a no confidence motion, the BBC’s Andrew Alexander reports.
Dear god! Looking at her voting record, she repeatedly voted against Mays deal "as it didn't provide enough protection for workers and the environment" but now she backs No Deal.
Nothing like a consistent position, eh? Anyone would think that the average MP has no actual understanding of the subject and they're all just making up as they go along
Has anyone seen Boris brandishing a kipper on stage in the leadership hustings?
It's a bit bizarre and toe curling in his show of support for the Isle of Mans kipper smoking industry against the EU
Dead kipper/dead cat. I'm sure the upswing in the smoked fish industry will more than compensate for the evisceration of the rest of the economy.
I still don’t understand him waving pasties around in 2016.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49021081
Well done British politicians. Over there with your tactics and heavyweight negotiating abilities...
Meanwhile, in more unsurprising news, apparently a no deal exit will cause a recession. Who'da thunk it?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-49027889
Kippers:
https://twitter.com/jamescrisp6/status/1151802012369072130?s=21
Tempted to drag up the pasty stuff again… to remind us that nothing has changed in three years. Donkeys.
Meanwhile, in more unsurprising news, apparently a no deal exit will cause a recession. Who’da thunk it?
I have heard even the fiercest of Brexiteers suggest that this will be case, with us not seeing any benefit for 50 years.
Does it bother them?
Apparently not.
After listening to James O'brian on LBC this morning attempt to converse with a 70yr old brexiteer i now realise why people voted for Brexit, apparently the EU banned the use of newspapers to wrap up fish n' chips and she doesn't like the fact that they do not taste/smell the same anymore, and the nice man from weatherspoons wrote in his magazine that he is buying his drink from somewhere else.
fish n' chips women highlights utter ignorance of brexiteers
Well that's me convinced..........brexit all the way now.....
In other news UK would be only country to trade exclusively on WTO terms says expert
Bloody experts trying to confuse us with facts yet again.
PS - on a more serious note how can we hold these ****ing idiots to account for their actions short of firing them into the ****ing sun?
Heard Jeremy Hunt on R4 this morning suggesting, amongst other things, that if we leave with no-deal, it's somehow the EU's fault . . . .