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LibDem or Green.
OK, I'm not going to get dragged into this because I simply don't have time, but I think I need to reply to that last point because on the face of it, yes, labour are offering a simple 2-part flowchart
1. get general election yes/no
2. if yes....campaign on "labour brexit"
3. if no....call for 2nd ref
There are many problems I have with this.
1. Every announcement of labour policy comes with words like "...to avoid damaging tory brexit" and it turns out that it means whatever the person you ask, wants it to mean
2. There is in my opinion / understanding no brexit which delivers benefits the people who labour claim to be representing, above being in the eu
3. I may have missed later announcements, but labour were extremely imprecise as to what would be the 2nd ref questions
4. every response to brexit is worded in a way to mean as much as possible to as many as possible while leaving as much as possible equivocation.
I think overall my main reason for disillusionment is the lack of clarity and leadership. No-one is coming out and saying what they really believe for fear of dropping in the polls (which are meaningless for now, while no election is on the horizon). In this they are being as dishonest as the tories.
The lib dems, greens and brexit party are 100% clear on their brexit views (brexit party don't have any other position of course, but then all they want is brexit, so I guess that's fair enough) and that is why people are going to them. Brexit in itself is not that important but since it is preventing literally everything other issue getting any attention it needs to be dealt with one way or another, and now...like right now. Leaving the EU will not help and will mean a huge amount of wasted effort in itself but if it's going to happen anyway then let's not waste a few MORE months / years where everything else is neglected and politicians' positions radicalise as a result of having to adopt ever more extreme viewpoints.
I'm going to have to get back to work now but I hope I've shown why I can't vote labour until something dramatically shifts.
Oh come on, that’s a ridiculous thing to say. Long memories? It was easily within the last couple of decades.
Precisely, it was 10-15 years ago. What relevance does that have on politics today? You might as well argue against the Tories because of school milk, hate Germans because of WWII, or hand-wave cancer because Original Sin.
We desperately need, as a country, to start looking forwards rather than backwards. Learn from history sure, but we can't change that. The Tories / Lib Dems / Labour / etc are different animals than they were a decade or two ago.
The Tories / Lib Dems / Labour / etc are different animals than they were a decade or two ago.
This is because they are all administrators.
What is a government, if not administrators of a country?
What is a government, if not administrators of a country?
Government need a leader to lead (one on the opposition too).
What you have now is a bunch of administrators that pretend to be "leaders".
Yes, government needs administrators but they also need a leader. You have plenty of the former but lacking the latter.
The administrators have No Vision to convince others and cannot lead.
I think by leader, he means celebrity malcontent.
*steps into thread*
Evenin' all...
*scans thread*
Oh no. We're about three posts away from yet another repetitively banal non-sequitur aren't we?
Listening to Radio Scotia yesterday, they had 2 young Tory councillors on chatting about the potential new leaders, apparently Gove is 'charismatic' and Boris is 'the voice of reason'.
Was very tempted to boot the radio across the kitchen.
In other news, 63% of Tory members wish to press on with Brexit even if it means Scotland leaving the union.
Every cloud and all that... 🙂
Well the leadership debate was a complete waste of time last night. Without some immediate fact checking to discredit the bollocks they all said (apart from maybe Rory Stewart), what's the point? It's just 5 blokes living in a fantasy world trying to talk over each other to get their lies across.
Emily Maitlis needed a fog horn just to drown the bullshit out and get back some order but unfortunately as she didn't she may as well not have even been there.
But hey, everything's fine, 'technology', 'turbo-charging' and 'super-charging' will sort everything out and we'll boom post-Brexit, enough to afford tax-cuts AND public sector spend increases. I can't wait
I wonder how different things would be if lying politicians would ever be held to account (preferably through capital punishment)...
According to Reuters, Labour will now back a 2nd referendum as their main Brexit policy and will make an announcement today.
Labour will now back a 2nd referendum as their main Brexit policy and will make an announcement today
to late, f*** them, get rid of Corbyn el al and then we can talk.
According to Reuters, Labour will now back a 2nd referendum as their main Brexit policy and will make an announcement today.
Will there be a flow chart?
I'm not sure they haven't left it far far too late, they've simply eroded too much trust with the renainers. (Edit: what mrmo said ^^)
Not to mention Barry Gardiner will be along shortly after to completely contradict what might be said today.
Rory Stewart stance! Half Man Half Biscuit remix anyone?
About time, quite probably too late. And if it is true, I still expect another policy deception, lets see what the referendum question they support before getting too excited.
I want a remain alliance and I want it now.
Hopefully Tom Watson is giving grandad a Chinese burn.
According to Reuters, Labour will now back a 2nd referendum as their main Brexit policy and will make an announcement today.
I really want to find a phrase that is far more rude than "closing the barn door after the horse has bolted."
Even if this isn't true, you will see a "policy shift" from the brexit leadership of the labour party over the summer, it is so timed so that when Brexit happens they can hold their hands up and say "at least we tried to stop it" while expecting everyone to conveniently forget what they did in the previous three years.
I wonder if we'd be better off with Labour keeping their current course, and picking up the scraps to push the Tories in to 4th place. A shift to anything else risks further fragmentation of the remain vote and that's the last thing we need. The various remain factions still haven't learnt the populist lesson. Keep it simple, stupid.
lets see what the referendum question they support before getting too excited.
Tick either
Labour fantasy yet to be negotiated deal.
No deal.
I really want to find a phrase that is far more rude than “closing the barn door after the horse has bolted.”
Reaching for the condom after having intercourse with a know HIV carrying lady / man of the night?
Taking the imodium after the toilet after your what yourself?
Deleting your search history after your partner opens your laptop to the last used website and finds a empty packet of tissues by the sofa and a wet patch?
I'm sure we'll get the usual. Jezza sat there looking like a hostage being forced to read a statement saying that his captors are treating him well, then saying
The Labour Party will commit to supporting a second referendum, if...
if...
if...
if...
if...
if...
if...
if...
if...
if...
Oh, and remain won't be an option
Oh, and remain won’t be an option
Unfortunate.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1140939099538436096
Yeah, but the Lexits are still selecting very different data points, to justify their position:
[ briefing doc given to the shadow cabinet ahead of today's meeting ]
Is it even worth updating the flow charts? Anyway, he's off to talk it all through with Len McCluskey & Andrew Murray next week…
but the Lexits are still selecting very different data points, to justify their position:
And you're not? 🙂
he’s off to talk it all through with Len McCluskey & Andrew Murray now…
I read something yesterday that said Murray had written a paper recommending they move to a remain position. It really is quite amusing watching you lot obsess about labour policy when you've already decided that no matter how much they shift towards remain it'll never be enough. They could campaign to join the euro and a single federal state and you'd still say it wasn't pro-europe enough. Just move on, vote lib dem, stop worrying about labour and instead think about Farage and the tories and what they might do when they win the next election.
A letter from 25 MPs warning Labour not to go full remain...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48694223
Another vote with this lot on board- could it happen? & the LP get blamed for Brexit forever more.
A letter from 25 MPs warning Labour not to go full remain…
Ahh… “bedrock support”… used to describe those who previously voted Labour but who wouldn’t vote for a Labour Government that would allow Brexit to be stopped by the public in a referendum… where as previous Labour voters who want Brexit stopped will automatically flock back to Labour no matter what. That's a gamble that ends up with fewer Labour MPs after a snap election, not more.
I read something yesterday that said Murray had written a paper recommending they move to a remain position.
That sounds interesting. Link?
Just heard Liz ‘The Truss’ Truss on R4.
Jesus wept, that woman is thick. Evan Davies just sounded like he could do without the whole experience and got rid of her as quick as possible.
How did idiots like Truss, Fox, Davies et al get into anything beyond lower-middle management?
How did idiots like Truss, Fox, Davies et al get into anything beyond lower-middle management?
What makes you rate being an MP as beyond lower/middle management? The pay is about the same, and the interview is a lot easier - you don't actually have to have any qualifications or experience in anything at all.
Seems Rory's gone. I know, I was surprised too.
Poundland Trump now the runaway candidate, with our favourite rhyming slang a distant second.
The pay is about the same
Wait, what?
Wait, what?
I was wondering that, MP basic salary is £80k...
I don't know any lower middle managers on £80k.
A typical tesco store manager is £38k according to glass doors...
I think by leader, he means celebrity malcontent.
Not necessary ... 😀
Tom Watson is challenging Magic Grandpa?
Watson has no chance at all as Magic Grandpa will win hands down. 🤣
Surprise surprise... magic grandad has stated that nothings changed. Same old, same old.
The Labour Leadership Brexiteers carry on with their heads buried firmly in the sand.
Open goal spooned straight into row Z yet again
Open goal spooned straight into row Z yet again
Same old same old. Too scared of the racists in their constituencies and still wanting to believe it is the 1970s. Hopeless. I would vote Labour in a heartbeat if they came out for remain unambiguously, but they won’t, so I won’t.
Cougar, you are surprised that the clever and articulate one lost?
Drac, I think you need to come and smack your fellow mod upside the head. Beat a bit of cynicism back into him....
At best, humans always fail to elect voices of reason or compromise and at worst decide to kill them.
Cougar, you are surprised that the clever and articulate one lost?
Sarcasm is dead.
Lengthy & pessimistic take from Ivan Rogers here
There are only 9 working days between what will be the new prime minister’s first meeting with all his oppos and October 31. So let’s be serious. Or they have concluded that if and when Macron and others say that they will not agree an extension to negotiate anything new in the Withdrawal Agreement, he will not cave in at that point.
Perhaps we are owed a clear answer in these things in the coming days? At least journalists might ask; This is why serious players in Brussels and certain capitals have concluded, as have I, that we are now rather likely to be headed for a breakdown to ‘no deal’. The cynical amongst them remark that the best political route to ‘no deal’, given that the current Commons evidently won’t vote for it, is to demand the revision of the Withdrawal Agreement replacing the backstop with the so-called ‘alternative arrangements’ set out in the Brady and Malthouse amendments, the handling of which so grievously damaged the previous Prime Minister’s reputation in capitals earlier in the year.
Once that proposal is duly rejected – which it will be – you say you have been rebuffed by the intransigent, faceless technocrats of Brussels and thwarted by a Parliament dominated by Remainers. And you have teed up an election in which the Conservative manifesto seeks public backing for the proposition that we either get those alternative arrangements in lieu of the backstop or we go to ‘no deal’. Within weeks. That might skewer Mr Farage and force the Labour Party to have a policy…Though of course nothing, of course, prevents Labour writing one of its very own unicorns into an Election manifesto. And nothing prevents Mr Farage saying ‘you promised to leave by now and you haven’t’.
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/06/ivan-rogers-no-deal-is-now-the-most-likely-outcome/
What makes you rate being an MP as beyond lower/middle management? The pay is about the same,
that's two threads in the last day or so where people have tried to claim that £80K is practically the average wage. What happened, did someone lock the luxury watch thread?
Ho hum.
Summer recess is from 25th July (which is the week the new leader is being announced) to 3rd of September.
Lucky we arent wasting those months.
I don't think being clever and articulate was Rory Stewart's problem.
I think it's that he insisted on basing his policies on reality.
I think it’s that he insisted on basing his policies on reality.
Emma Barnett is interviewing one of Jeremy Hunts backers on Five Live. She's getting absolutely exasperated with him saying that they're going to go back to Brussels and renegotiate the deal and do away with the Northern Ireland backstop with some mythical 'alternative arrangements'
She is repeatedly pointing out to him that the EU have said they won't renegotiate the deal, and already rejected the whole 'alternative arrangements' idea
They are all still just peddling fantasies.
If the implications for us all weren't so serious, I'd be quite looking forward to seeing Boris ritually humiliated when he rocks up in Brussels with his 'renegotiation' proposals
Of course, if the labour party was worthy of the name HM Opposition they'd be shouting from the rooftops that they were all just peddling lies and its a fantasy that will lead to disaster.
Unfortunately, they can't because their policy is presently exactly the same unicorn-based nonsense
Unfortunately, they can’t because their policy is presently exactly the same unicorn-based nonsense
As if anyone would listen? Shouting from the rooftops that people are wrong never solved anything. Read the article I posted ages back about people not changing their minds, even when they know they know they have been shown to be wrong.
The only way to win at politics is to persuade people you are 'on their side'. It has absolutely nothing to do with facts, reasoning, or policies. See Trump for an example.
Well, dogmatic, unicorn-based nonsense has to collide with reality at some point. I'd just rather it wasn't amid the economic wreckage of a No Deal Brexit.
Looks like I'm going to be out of luck
Looks like I’m going to be out of luck
You and about 50 million other people. :o(
Well, dogmatic, unicorn-based nonsense has to collide with reality at some point.
Not in the minds of Brexiteers. It'll always be someone else's fault. The overwhelming majority of Brexiteers will blame someone else when it goes wrong, they will never admit they were wrong.
Not in the minds of Brexiteers. It’ll always be someone else’s fault. The overwhelming majority of Brexiteers will blame someone else when it goes wrong, they will never admit they were wrong.
They'll blame the EU for screwing us over. They already are.
They can blame whoever they like. We know different.
Its people like us that will hold them all to account when the time comes, and that time will come.
Don't be weak.
With the upcoming fun in Iran I wonder how many of our troops will be sacrificed in the name of trade deals?
I hope Farage's previous non intervention stance remains.
Its people like us that will hold them all to account when the time comes, and that time will come.
I admire your optimism. But where will we have to go before we can reach that point.
So, when we need grown up polticians acting selflessly for the betterment of the country, we get two spoilt ballot papers in the Tory leadership vote!! Elected representatives spoiling their ballot papers!!!
I wonder if Rory draws poos or knobs...
Is Vlad Aaron Banks threatening there is going to be a civil war?
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1141700064714383360
https://twitter.com/Arron_banks/status/1141703189743493120
More and more commentators talking about a GE, including those on the right. Boris forces a GE when he can't get a deal through Europe and no deal through Parly
https://twitter.com/RyanShorthouse/status/1141615490017767425?s=19
https://twitter.com/RyanShorthouse/status/1141616208426491905?s=19
So more chaos?
Also Ryan - you're forgetting that it'll be far from a 2nd ref, as the leave vote will be split between Tory, Brexit & Labour candidates...
Labour are a leave party.
I think he is saying when push comes to shove Labour will snap into a remain position. If leaks from Shadow Cabinet are to be believed McDonnell and Gardiner have joined the Labour should be openly campaigning on remain/2nd ref policy. That doesn't leave many who are not...
An election is exactly the thing that needs to happen. If Boris increases the likelihood of that then I hope he wins. When an election does occur, I fully expect labour will campaign on a new referendum and remain stance. However, labour MPs will be given a free vote on any new referendum to prevent the awkward squad of 26 or so MPs from resigning from the shadow cabinet or the party. Corbyn will concentrate his campaigning on non-brexit related policies (which are undoubtedly his strength) and leave the pro-referendum stuff to Watson et al.
You're trolling again...
You’re trolling again…
Not at all. I've said all along that we need an election to change the parliamentary arithmetic, and that (going back a couple of years now) when it comes, labour would campaign for a new referendum and remain. It looks very likely that is now going to happen. Everything we're seeing is choreography to prevent the party splitting. It may not be fast or decisive enough for many in the revocation camp, but it will be for many when they're in the polling booth and imagine a Boris/Farage coalition.
Do you deny that we need a new election?
Well it would appear an election isn't going to fix the parliamentary deadlock. No deal or no brexit is now the choice.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1141992350903726080
Holy shit, frankly.
How does that translate to seats?
That is the trouble with FPTP, no-one knows. It could be a whitewash for Libdems, or more likely a few marginals will change hands to the minor parties and LAB/CON will take the bulk of seats, albeit with severely reduced majorities in their safe seats.
Would there be a Brexative coalition?
How does that translate to seats?
Thats the question. Who knows. UKIP got millions of votes and no seats. What it does suggest - with Conservative voters defecting to Farage/Brexit in droves, and Labour voters doing the same and running off to the Lib Dems, Greens and SNP - is that the two party system is over. For the time being, at least.
Maybe this is no bad thing. There are plenty of leafy shires where you could stick a blue rosette on a baboons arse and it'd get elected. In northern towns pin a red rosette on the same arse and its in!
By the looks of that polling I'd say there no such thing as a safe seat any more. Good. Given how extreme both main parties have become.
Because it looks like the present hung parliament will look like a model of stability at the next election. If we have seats split 4 ways then, whether they like it or not, politicians are going to have to start cooperating with each other and back away from their more extreme positions
I live in hope
How does that translate to seats?
Someone at work pointed me to this site a while back -
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html
Pretty pointless trying to work out seat counts at this stage.
Attempts are equal measures laughable and scary.
https://twitter.com/electcalculus/status/1141982642616852480?s=21
The other issue is that any current poll (however the question is framed) is based on current Brexit position for both major parties.
If Boris led Tories are forced in GE on a no deal ticket it would take loads of votes from Brexit. If Labour swing to remain (either from internal shadow cabinet pressure or as a response to Tory positioning) it will take substantial votes from Lib-Dems.
Couple this with fptp and Brexit will be lucky to get any seats. Lib-Dems likely to recover somewhat from post coalition position but nothing like the polling suggests
More and more commentators talking about a GE, including those on the right. Boris forces a GE when he can’t get a deal through Europe and no deal through Parly
Too many people hate him for him to win an election. The tories will still need remain tories to win the election, and I see them disappearing off to the liberal democrats.
The plan I see is for him to become leader and then simply do nothing up to October 31st. Then the infiltrated membership of the tory party will view it as job done.
All this is opinion of course, as this country is so ****ed up at the moment, anything can happen.
Recent polling suggests a Boris-led Tory party will gain a majority, eating the Brexit Party. Of all the potential PMs, he was the only one predicted to win that majority.
I doubt the polls will remain as they are. Labour and the tories will still remain the two largest parties in both vote share and number of seats. The decider will be who loses least to brexit and the lib dems. The tories look like they'll lose a lot to brexit, labour are so far limiting their losses to them. The danger for labour is their vote being split between labour and lib dems allowing the tories/brexit to win seats where before they wouldn't have had a chance. As always, keeping the tories/brexit away from power is going to require tactical voting between labour, lib dem and green voters. If they do that, a labour led coalition is possible and a new referendum is on the way, if not then no deal is guaranteed.
Too many people hate him for him to win an election.
I don't think that's true, not amongst tory and prospective tory voters.
Byelection in brecon and Radnorshire after the tory MP was convicted of fraud. Hopefully the Lib dems get it and the Converatives will be down to a working majority of 3.
you could stick a blue rosette on a baboons arse and it’d get elected
Looks like that's about to happen...
It would be nice to see this updated
scotroutes
Member
Recent polling suggests a Boris-led Tory party will gain a majority, eating the Brexit Party. Of all the potential PMs, he was the only one predicted to win that majority.
polling that was debunked as very questionable , not least because it was published by Johnsons very own fanzine, the Torygraph!
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1138770283207319553
BUT a GE before Johnson has to admit that he has no idea how to make Brexit work would make more sense for Johnson, he knows that the Leavers are rather gullible to hi schtick, but once hes failed utterly to deliver his unicorn fantasies he'll be in trouble
If a GE election does actually happen, and campaigns start to shift attention away from Brexit and the NHS under the Brexit party is tackled you will see completely different results.
There are other things than Brexit that people will vote on.