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I tell you three times. There will not be a cross party deal. Its been obvious for a while. Its now all about whether each side can palm the blame off on the other.
There is nothing available that will get anything close to a majority in parliament. Any mention of any sort of a customs union will mean almost no tories vote for it. a permanent customs union is the minimum for labour. anything without a second ref will have less than 1/3 of the labour party vote for it. If May moves all the way to the labour position then there might be a good few labour vote for it - and not a single tory.
the parliamentary arithmetic does not add up to any chance of a deal being passed in the commons.
Just because it won’t pass, doesn’t mean they won’t try it. It’s obvious that’s what they’re going to do this week. Purely for joint self-preservation in ducking EU elections where they’ll both be butchered. Self-serving trumps the national interest for both of them
Remember: the vast majority of Corbyn’s own MPs passed a vote of no confidence in him.
What difference did it make? He just carried on like it never happened
He’s probably got Dianne Abbott doing the maths on this one too
Come off it Binners. there is one and only one scenario I can see where a deal could be put to parliament - if May agrees a permanent customs union and a second ref.
Corbyn is far too smart to put a bad deal to parliament and one he knows will not pass.
But you know the most ridiculous thing about your strange idea? Starmer is leading the negotiation. Not Corbyn.
A vast majority of his MPs? really?
Pic of me with a troll on my head?>
Me, me, me, me, can I fart when I'm sitting on your head? 😉
Remember: the vast majority of Corbyn’s own MPs passed a vote of no confidence in him.
What difference did it make? He just carried on like it never happened
No he acknowledged it. It was non-binding.
Leaders are voted for by the membership.
There was a leadership challenge and he won.
Good christ, you should know this by now.
It was non-binding.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Corbyn is too smart...
No he acknowledged it. It was non-binding.
Gah, beaten to it!
So he knows which advisory opinion polls to ignore, then?!
So come on then. I bet that there is no deal made. BInners thinks a stitch up. Only one of us can be right. I have offered a forfeit if I am wrong. what you got binners?
As in line with betting on previous football threads (which you won’t have read) I’ll bet you a tenner Greggs gift card that Corbyn tries to whip whatever deal him and May have cooked up through Parliament before the weeks out
Tj and binners ,what do you think the eventual outcome will be?
Haven’t a clue. You’d have to be mental to bet on actual outcomes, but Magic Grandad will definitely try and whip his MPs to get a deal through this week, so he can avoid EU elections.
Are we on then Uncle Jezza? Think of the steak bakes you can buy me? 😃
This is more like it, people putting their money where their mouth is and their mouth gets fed too, a bit like having cake and eating it.
🙂
OK binners - yer on. A Corbyn / May deal this week? Not a chance
Now we’re talking...
😃
To be clear - so you say a corbyn ? May deal will be done this week. I say no way Jose
binners
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As in line with betting on previous football threads (which you won’t have read) I’ll bet you a tenner Greggs gift card that Corbyn tries to whip whatever deal him and May have cooked up through Parliament before the weeks out
I'll give you 2 to 1 on that.
It won’t go through. But he/she will jointly attempt to get it through Parliament this week, and probably fail.
You getting nervy about the sausage rolls? 😉
I think it'll get stopped before even getting to a parliamentary vote… and, because of the nature of the deal they ask their parties to consider, neither leader will be in place at the end of the year (when we will more than likely still be in the EU, but will not have stopped the process of leaving). Binners has a far better track record than me on this though, so I'm not going to even bet a sausage roll on it.
Cream cakes for me - an a macaroni pie
It won’t go through. But he/she will jointly attempt to get it through Parliament this week,
doubling down - make a deal AND attempt to get it thru parliament this week?
Time is of the essence to avoid EU elections. Deal announced tomorrow afternoon. Vote on Thursday or Friday. The complete disintegration of our two party system before breakfast on Saturday
The complete disintegration of our two party system
Not necessarily a bad thing, but I wish they didn't have to ruin everything else to achieve it.
The complete disintegration of our two party system before breakfast on Saturday
Ah something hopeful at last.
Thats been predicted for a long time. Happened in Scotland but no sign of it in England IMO
YOu need to get rid of FPTP to get more than a two party system
I think Binners scenario is correct - an attempt will be made, but TJ’s outcome is the most likely.
Both sides are too fing stupid & stubborn to yield ideological ground. Effectively putting party before country but, again, too fing stupid to realise that’s not going to wash with the electorate. See their reaction to the local elections for proof. I see a GE before Hallowe’en & a hung parliament/coalition gov being the result. F knows what’ll happen after that..
HUng parliament would kill brexit dead. SNP and liberal dems will not support any government that wants brexit. Minimum price for supply and confidence would be referendums
I don't understand why people keep going on about a two party system when there are lots of parties that affect the balance of power. I think what you want ended is FPTP.
So he knows which advisory opinion polls to ignore, then?!
Yeah because why he would deselect himself in the face of an increased membership vote?
It's completely illogical what you are suggesting.
I don’t understand why people keep going on about a two party system when there are lots of parties that affect the balance of power. I think what you want ended is FPTP.
Thats effectively the same thing Molls. If we ditched FPTP for proportional representation, that would be the end of the 2 party system. Loads of people know that a vote for anything other than Tory or Labour at a GE is just a wasted vote, so hold their noses and go for the least worst option
PR would put an end to the necessity to do that, so the 2 party Chuckle Brothers 'to me... to you' system would collapse. Why do you think they're both so opposed to PR?
As they're both about to demonstrate this week, when both main parties are equally threatened, they'll happily unite and work together to save both their sorry arses and protect their closed shop, despite that clearly not being in the best interests of the country. What we're about to witness this week is effectively the operations of a political cartel
I think what you want ended is FPTP.
Well yes but lies the tale another crap referendum. I can think of another way but it wouldn't get passed through parliament.
1. The "government" has to represent at least 51% of the population. That would end the current situation where it's possible to get a majority government with minority vote. It would require some cross party involvement.
2. A minimum "yes" vote for new legislation, not a simple majority.
Robert Peston has taken the view that the May/Corbyn talks are unlikely to reach a consensus: Peston
The issues are numerous, for starters May herself is likely to be ousted as leader before the end of June. Grassroots Conservatives have become frustrated not only at the lack of progress on Brexit, but it's clear that council election losses were worse than the most pessimistic forecasts at Conservative HQ. Grass roots rebellion
Even Jezza knows that any deal reached between parties is likely to be torn up by the next - probably hard-line Conservative Party leaver. Moreover, the outcome of a customs union merely kicks the can down the road to 2022 - it's a temporary arrangement to allow the UK time to figure out what it wants. It just happens to be a scheduled General Election year too, one that the Conservatives are unlikely to win if we look at the electoral cycle.
These are all attempts to ladle the burden of blame for a failed Brexit onto the opposition, any sane party leader would not countenance discussion with such an unstable and intrinsically weak government given that even if our next PM is a Brexiteer, the parliamentary arithmetic to get anything passed is going to become even more difficult.
Labour have to be seen to be taking these discussions seriously to prevent the right wing press " its all Corbyns fault" attack line.
One thing I find fascinating is all the positive stories that the discussions are almost there and agreement is withing reach are all coming from the tory side. From Labour very little and what there is is much more cautious.
To me that says a lot about how desperate the tories are and that the balance of power has shifted towards labour.
the main issue remains tho - there is an unbridgeable gulf, Labours minimum requirements are a long way from the furthest May can go
Stitch up due in 5...4...3...2...1...
Here's one for you. Time travel. You're allowed to go back 5 years to fix all of this. Who do you bump off/lock in a dark room? Cameron? Farage? May?
Can you delete that please Andy? Nothing funny about fantasising about killing still living contemporary politicians. Mods, please delete this if he does. Ta.
What if it was in a really ironic/funny way? Like Cameron choking to death on a pork chop?
Well, it works for Frankie Boyle I suppose. Ignore me… carry on… not sure it's wise though.
Like Cameron choking to death on a pork chop?
I thought it was the pig that choked.
Plot twist: Nigel Farage's pilot in 2010, *was* a time traveller, just one who was incompetent at his job.
Okay Kelvin, just lock up the contenders if that makes you feel better. How about sending them off into space?
We are where we are, in part due to the nefarious influence of some shady characters. I'd far rather sit back and watch them protest their innocence in court than to see folks bumped off. 1920s Italian politics isn't the way forward, nor do I believe that it's acceptable to wish individuals harm, no matter how much one despises them.
That said, I would welcome the opportunity to commandeer a TARDIS and deliver a lifetime's supply of Durex each to Mr & Mrs Farage, Mr & Mrs Koch, Mr & Mrs Mercer and Mr & Mrs Banks.
You have to admire the sheer bare-faced effrontery of Farage, and marvel at the rank stupidity of the half-wits that vote for him.
He's effectively launched an election campaign this morning by stating that he hasn't got any policies or a manifesto of any sort, but he'll sort all that out once he's elected.
And people cheered that! And will now vote for it
Christ on a *ing bendybus!
I'm pretty certain that any agenda will be a continuation of his UKIP days
1. Fly to Brussels once every blue moon
2. Act like a * in front of the cameras
3. Fly straight back to Heathrow
4. Pick up large EU salary
Do we know who that big Brexit Party donor is yet?
I thought STW policy was that it was only OK to wish for/take pleasure in people's deaths if they were unsavoury individuals and their deaths had an element of comedy/irony?
Or does it only count if they're African?
@ kelvin Bet you 10 pasties its Seamus Milne
Amusing. He may have the disposable wealth to do it, but I'm sure he'd rather cut off his own ear than help Farage personally (their alignment on anti-EU issues is born from political antithesis, not alignment).
European parliament elections will go ahead in the UK on May 23, after the government determined that there is not enough time left to complete the ratification of Brexit before that date, Cabinet Office minister David Lidington has said.
This will be no surprise to anyone who has been following politics closely in recent weeks. It was almost inevitable as soon as Theresa May accepted a proposal to delay Brexit until 31 October at the emergency summit before Easter. But until this afternoon, in public at least, the government was insisting that there was a chance of the elections not actually going ahead because there was a possibility of the Brexit legislation being passed before 23 May, polling day.
from the gruaniad
Looking forward to my own weight in cream cakes Binners 🙂
Early days yet in cake-and-eat-it-land....
😉
Early days yet in cake-and-eat-it-land….
Press Assocation and the BBC are quoting the same thing. I am sure Lidington, who is effectively the deputy leader, could be wrong though. Best throw up some more hilarious images.
Just for you dissy....
You know this changes nothing, right? The elections taking place doesn't mean any of the MEP's will ever take their seats.
Still plenty of time for a Jezza/Theresa Rose Garden photoshoot moment 😀
I thought STW policy was that it was only OK to wish for/take pleasure in people’s deaths if they were unsavoury individuals and their deaths had an element of comedy/irony?
Not sure it's the done thing to make humour out of anyone's passing. I certainly hope we treat everyone from Joe Cocker to Roger Moore with full respect when they go.
You know this changes nothing, right?
Well I would have thought it would have made you less confident about making claims but then again on previous evidence you dont tend to let facts get in the way of your beliefs.
It was a prediction he made… it may be a foolish thing to do as far as Brexit is involved… but it isn't/wasn't a "fact". The "fact" was that the Labour leadership were meeting with the Tory leadership to try and hammer out a deal… if/when they do reach an understanding, and if/how it gets accepted or rejected is all just supposition.
My (non existent) money is on an agreement between both camps before the elections as well, but then the cabinet and/or shadow cabinet rejecting it, by many key people threatening to move, rather than MPs ever getting to vote on it.
I've always thought the elections would go ahead, because it is in the interests of all the Labour Party, right up to the very top, for the Tory party to be seen to take a good drubbing. If May is seen to have reached an agreement with Corbyn just before most people cast their vote, both parties will suffer, but one will suffer an order of magnitude worse than the other. It'll be anhilation day at the polls for May.
You know this changes nothing, right? The elections taking place doesn’t mean any of the MEP’s will ever take their seats.
Still plenty of time for a Jezza/Theresa Rose Garden photoshoot moment
Ah but:
As in line with betting on previous football threads (which you won’t have read) I’ll bet you a tenner Greggs gift card that Corbyn tries to whip whatever deal him and May have cooked up through Parliament before the weeks out
It’s still only Tuesday?
Don’t count your eclairs just yet.
This is Brexitland. Half the cabinet could have resigned by lunchtime tomorrow
Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm cream cakes
Not sure it’s the done thing to make humour out of anyone’s passing. I certainly hope we treat everyone from Joe Cocker to Roger Moore with full respect when they go.
Erm.
Um.
Er.
Our MEPs will probably be still doing their thing (which for half of them will mean doing nothing but embarrassing us) when 2020 begins. That doesn't preclude an attempted cross party cook up and/or resignations left, right & centre though. In fact, we could have several rounds of that kind of thing over the next year.
Of course the gov is saying the elections will go ahead,, just to soften the blow of a Tory Labour agreement.
Hmmm… @ForChange_UK, or whatever you want to call them, really do need someone looking after their media and social media for them, don't they. Not confidence inspiring. I defended them a bit over the logo fiasco… but… there's now a trend…
I certainly hope we treat everyone from Joe Cocker to Roger Moore with full respect when they go.
Not looking forward to that day...
Seems a shame Paul's party doesn't back him. Fake news?
My prediction:
Lab and Con 'constructive' talks are at an impasse.
There will be no lab/con united front.
If there is, it will never get through Parliament.
If it gets through parliament, the EU will slap it down for being too wishy washy. (political deceleration rather than legal withdrawal agreement)
Back to square one after even more time wasting.
Meanwhile nothing happens.
I'll bet at tenners worth of vegan sausage roll's on it.
sadly i think this is true
Labour’s negotiating team was irked by leaks to Sunday newspapers about concessions Theresa May was preparing to make, which they believe amounted to little more than a rehash of the existing deal.
According to Labour sources, John McDonnell and Keir Starmer spent much of the meeting unpicking the government’s claim to have softened its position in recent weeks, with the atmosphere becoming “quite tense” at times.
By contrast, a Downing Street spokesman described the discussions as “constructive and detailed”, adding: “The teams have agreed to meet again for follow-up talks tomorrow afternoon, recognising the need to resolve the current Brexit deadlock in parliament,”
moar Grauniad
I think this shows the relative sterength of the parties and the desparation of the tories
Kimbers - he has NO traction at all in Scotland. So England maybe but scotland - simply not
sadly i think this is true
The farrage charge? Lol! That's very much a opinion piece. Typical of sky I suppose. Lots of opinion, few facts.
The only quotes in the article are from nigel. A man who has consistently failed in his job as MEP. A man who has a German passport. A man who allegedly supports the UK. What a patriot lol!
Scotland is part of this, whatever the rights and wrongs you think of that.
As to strength of lab vs. con. One is in power, just, one is not ( with very little chance of gaining it as things stand ). What it speaks to, is May's intransigence/lack of room for manoeuvre ( choose whichever you prefer ). You might argue Labour went in to talks in good faith, but really, no one ever thought anyone was going to get anything out of this, did they?
I'd imagine the Labour team having a bit of a laugh out of it all though.
If you think that farage has failed you're judging him by the wrong yardstick imo.
Well paid job he hardly turns up to. Decent pension. Has had massive impact on British politics despite never being elected an MP ( 7 attempts ). He's an insipid weasle of a tabacco stained toad who I can only imagine struggles to look himself in the mirror of a morning for sure, but to deny him his success is unrealistic, however unpalatable.
Sorry. I see I've done both weasles and toads a disservice there.
Its nothing to do with Scotland. Look at the voting record. the most UKIP has ever got in a scots election is just over 6% IIRC. So farage cannot bring trumpism to scotland - he would be laughed out of the coutry.
Its a classic anglocentric media piece conflating england and the UK
I think the UK vote in the EU elections will reflect the local votes we've had recently.
There was no brexit party in the locals, just the odd UKIP who are dead and irrelevant now, so I'd imagine all the UK racists and nationalists will give nigels new party a good proportion, but i think we'll see a much more level playing from the greens and the Liberal democrats.
Time will tell I guess.
Its nothing to do with Scotland. Look at the voting record.
It's actually a lot to do with Scotland, and Northern Ireland, and potentially Wales too.
This (English) nationalist bullshit will be the end of the UK.
Scotland will fast track straight back into to EU if hard brexit happens. And I don't blame them
on that.
Wales is also watching..
If Scotland were able to manage that then I hope they have an open and welcoming immigration policy, but 'fast track' would be rather a relative term, and I think there are more than a few hurdles to get over to achieve it.
Scotland didn't have to vote for farage, and funnily enough very few people have, but to pretend that what he does doesn't affect Scotland is a curious view.
In some ways I think we'd almost be better off if he had succeeded in getting in to the commons. At least closer to home what he gets up to might have come under closer scrutiny.