[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Ed why you bothering ? he is just a troll these days. Perhaps he always was but he is never going to add any substance to his claims he is only going to patronise and goad you.

How much more evidence do you need of this?

I like the way he moans about how folk have driven Jamby from this thread and then he does the type of thing he would be outraged about if it was done to he mate. Its not worth the effort as he will patronise us all without our input - though I do at least get a free pass. I think its probably the nicest punishment I have ever had.

And an example of the "strong motivations" of the EU to avoid a hard Brexit

Of course it's against their interests.

That goes without saying

we've barely got over the last recession and we are plunging ourselves into and even bigger badder one.

THM- Neither correct, but don't worry

Really..well we know what happened in 2008, what would you hazard is causing the current slump? Any takers?

[img] [/img]

So its against their interests but they are strongly motivated to achieve it

I am now as confused as you are about the EU.

Thankfully he ignores me so i dont get patronised for being stupidfor highlighting his contradictions

Anyway enough feeding from me

We have just been through a very extended economic cycle (albeit lower than past ones) and we are about to go through a slowdown as a natural part of business cycles - growth but lower that recently.

To date, the main impact has been £ and kook on effect on inflation and real wages which makes it difficult for the Bank of England to stop stealing. But in November they will at least pare it back to petty pilfering

Any takers?

the Bank of England to stop stealing

Its not been stolen for that would be an illegal act ...anyway back to lecturing us on our "fantasy" views and our hyerbole
Top troll though 8/10

It's far from fine. We haven't even started negotiating on trade and the Eu show little sign of wanting to. Bizarre bunch....

On the longstanding forum users thread THM ( from what I can see) admits deliberately trolling on this thread

More lies TJ ?

I merely commented on the comedy value of reading the stuff that gets made up on here.

The list is endless. Makes commuting much more fun

and he still replies to me despite me not seeing his posts ( I looked at Dracs retort to his post on that thread). I could explain why he behaves like this 'cos its completely obvious but arguing with this tedious troll got me banned before. Hence the blocking of the troll

At least there was some good news today

But he [Barnier]said there had been no negotiations on the issue this week because the UK was not ready to spell out what it would pay

Looks like our boys and girls are learning on the job

Isnt UK the largest export destination of nearly all the remaining EU countries as well as there being a trade balance if their favours? That's a pretty massive and unmoveable incentive to be sensible.

They need our military and security services.

Frankly, most of them will be happier with UK gone. We have been the late adopter of most EU stuff ever since we joined so they can all crack on with their plans more easily with us gone. Except they wont have quite as much of our cash to play with.

I was quite cheered to chat to some people recently who had voted remain but would now vote brexit due to be annoyed at arrogant attitude of Barnier and the rest of the EU elite / drunk belgian bloke. Sadly this seems to be lost on the Bc who continue to recycle without question all the guff coming out of Brussels every day.

NOpe - the uK is not the largest export market for much if anything. thats a myth. Neither do they need our military or security services so much as to make them break the foundations of the EU. the 4 freedoms remain indivisible despite what the leave loons still try to claim.

the EU will take a minor dip if we leave. the UK will be wrecked.

among many reasons....

The list is long....

You post that and have the cheek to call others trolls! Amazing.

Anyone interested in the truth would know or be interested to know that the U.K. is the EUs second largest market for exports of goods and services just behind US and ahead of China - excluding infra EU trade.

A minor technicality

Isnt UK the largest export destination of nearly all the remaining EU countries

Germany biggest is USA, the France then UK

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_Germany

France we are 5th

http://www.worldstopexports.com/frances-top-import-partners/

It's sounds like your Brexit converts are just as misinformed as you hh !

the they need us more than we need them argument really does not hold up to analysis

44% of our exports 8% of theirs. There is no way to spin this as them needing us more. NONE.

well said chaps - its another one of the brexshitters lies that "they need us". Tory boys would have you believe that its true. Unfortunately for them the facts are clear

It's far from fine. We haven't even started negotiating on trade and the Eu show little sign of wanting to. Bizarre bunch...

Sherpas draft conclusions for upcoming EU Brexit meeting which has been leaked to the FT suggests they are going to start internal preparations. Interesting to see if this survives the meeting.

Was that the main FT article now on web version? The prep bit still seemed some way off if I read it correctly

Sherpas?

I believe 2017 is the 500yr anniversary of the reformation.

That was the last time we told European authority to do one and the similarities are remarkable, even to having a leader who isn't really bought into the idea.

If you overlook the first 100yrs of bloodshed torture, burning at the stake and general persecution of anyone who didnt tow the line it all worked out ok in the end.

And of course worth remembering very few people care about either side of that argument now.

So for me, whilst I voted in and believe in the short(20/30yrs) term we would be better off in I cant help but have some sympathy with lets get on with suggestion from the brexiteers.

TBH I care more about clean air to breath and affordable homes for my kids than I do whether the politicians are in Westminster of Brussels.
They’ll still be bloody useless either way.

The Brexiters promised a clean & easy break, there was no mention of a divorce bill, transitions and all the messy details.

Right up until the talks started Davis was saying we'd get trade talks first, the Tories have backed themselves into a corner, they'll have to concede or we get the cliff edge Brexit that will harm both sides.

Madness

The German car makers think differently - the UK is their largest export market, so not surprising. Another mere technicality

And BaFIN warning German insurers that they need to prepare to avoid big losses.

Trifles...

I cant help but have some sympathy with lets get on with suggestion from the brexiteers.
TBH I care more about clean air to breath and affordable homes for my kids

That's the problem

Let's get on with it isn't an option

Brexies dont want to hear that the government have had to hire 1000s of new civil servants or that we still need to hire 1000s more (after the Tories spent the last 7 years getting rid of 1000s !)

Or that 80% of DEFRAs work is now taken up with Brexit so there's no room to worry about clean air or building houses....

Was that the main FT article now on web version? The prep bit still seemed some way off if I read it correctly

Only seen source document, prefer primary sources

[img] :large[/img]

Sherpas?

[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/17/meet-the-sherpas-the-key-people-quietly-negotiating-uk-eu-reforms ]Sherpas [/url](old article illustrating who they are, other European governments will be involved too pre-summit)

Thanks Mefty _ FT summary not far off

More insignificant observations from Hanldesblatt

“German companies that have a connection with the UK and Northern Ireland must now take precautions for a very hard departure” of Britain from the EU, scheduled for March 2019, Mr. Lang told journalists. German firms, he added, sense a “sword of Damocles of insecurity is hanging over them, but they are also exposed to the danger of a massive devaluation” of the British pound against the euro.

Still nothing to worry about

The German car makers think differently - the UK is their largest export market, so not surprising. Another mere technicality

I was listening a German business analyst recently who said quite the opposite, German business leaders value the integrity and stability of the European market way more than clean access to the UK.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]The UK has to make the EU think we will walk away. Otherwise they will not negotiate properly

The EU already know it's not in our best interests to walk away. They've also worked out by now that we're incompetent enough to do it. It's not a negotiating strategy, and it's not a zero sum game - the best deal will be done by negotiating properly with them, not by making a very bad job of trying to blackmail them.

Sure it's not in the interests of the EU for us to leave with no deal, but what they also know is that it's worse for us than them - it's not an incredibly strong negotiating position to take!

that typifies both parties involved.

You write that as if there is no logic to the position of either side. The EU position is entirely logical, and they have yet to do anything which wasn't predicted on here several hundred pages ago.

Though I have to admit I am now wondering whether the conspiracy theory is true and that the whole thing is being deliberately engineered and the whole UK strategy is actually entirely logical. Because what is the #1 priority of the Tory party? Re-election - a successful Brexit isn't even a subsidary aim if it doesn't help their electoral chances. As mentioned above, the best possible strategy for them might be to sabotage it in a way where they can pass the blame.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]It's far from fine. We haven't even started negotiating on trade and the Eu show little sign of wanting to. Bizarre bunch....

As you keep saying, as if they should abandon a position they stated on day 1 - a position which was accepted by DD on day 1. It's not the EU which has made no progress at all towards that point.

sorry aracer but you are missing (some of) the key issues here

1[b]. It is a zero some game. [/b]The EU has made it very clear that the Uk position after Brexshit must be weaker than it is now. There is no ambiguity there. There is irony of course, since in protecting the project, or at least pretending to, they lose out too. But path, who cares about details....

2. Brexshit is bad for both parties. The relative arguments are crass, oversimplified (see ^) and unhelpful. Given (1) the mindset is not focused on delivering a win:win its focusd on a win:lose. It will end up most likely as a lose:lose

3. There is logic to both sides. The EU - yes as predicted - create scenarios in which they can delay dealing with the core issues for as long as possible. They have precedent here, we knew this was coming and their intransigence is utterly predictable. What is not predictable is the point at which we move to proper negotiations on the cores issues. It seems that some brinkmanship and willy waving is required first. Ditto for us, it would be foolhardy to agree financial terms up front - other than to agree in principle (tick) - and to weaken the interest of UK citizens through some foolhardy gesturing.

4. The Tories are already probably doomed by this. An unsuccessful Brexshit confirms this. A successful one might just save them. But tough call. As ever Europe will bring them down in the end. Like night follows day. But it's absurd to claim that they WANT this to fail.

5. You miss, finally, Barnier's acknowledgement that progress had been made in other areas. Of course, and we shouldn't miss this, the main stumbling block is our reluctance to bend over to the "we [s]need[/s] want your cash" demands.

6. As you were...

Still going well?

Ministers have been forced to postpone next week’s debate on the EU withdrawal bill on a chaotic day that saw Michel Barnier warn of a “disturbing deadlock” in the divorce talks in Brussels and a growing whispering campaign against the chancellor in Westminster.

Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the House of Commons, told MPs the key piece of Brexit legislation would not be debated next week, as they had planned, as the government struggles to respond to a deluge of hostile amendments.

Labour said it had identified more than a dozen of the 300 amendments that already have the backing of seven or more Tory MPs, theoretically enough to defeat the government.

Barnier made clear that he was not ready to recommend that talks on a future trading relationship begin now, as the UK had hoped.

The main stumbling block continues to be the UK’s refusal to accept the EU’s analysis of what it will owe on leaving the bloc in March 2019. Barnier said at the end of the fifth round of talks that there was no question of him making “concessions”.

Mefty

The document, seen by the Guardian, suggests the president of the European council, Donald Tusk, will invite Barnier, and its member states to start drawing up a vision for the future trading relationship and the transition period in order to be ready for December, [b][i]should sufficient progress have been made by then.[/i][/b]

So the undemocrats have the upper hand? If we can't win the vote, we can at least kill the process ......the voters must not prevail 😉

Though I have to admit I am now wondering whether the conspiracy theory is true and that the whole thing is being deliberately engineered and the whole UK strategy is actually entirely logical.

I said this on here months ago and was shouted down by posters who no longer post here- the Tory government stands to win and win big if they can crash us out on a no deal basis- it’s entirely in keeping with their overall objectives.

No deal is the plan.

1. It is a zero some game

There is irony of course, since in protecting the project, or at least pretending to, they lose out too. ....

"comedy gold " is the term used, I think.

It's not hard to reconcile. You can have a zero sum game in a shrinking pool.

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😀

You can. But not if both sides lose.

I guess that's what Brexit is - a negative sum game.

Brexie strategy now seems to be "it'll hurt us more but it'll hurt you too so suck it up, Europe".

Perhaps not the smartest strategy to take with our neighbours, partners and, to me (I realise I am an outlier and enemy of the people!), friends.

Perhaps they need to cotton on the Napoleonic era was 200 years ago.

So the undemocrats have the upper hand? If we can't win the vote, we can at least kill the process

[img] [/img]

It's just, the usual Tory infighting over Europe, who cares if it leaves 1000s of EU citizens in limbo (including Brit expats) puts the willies up business,paralysed UK gov ability to legislate, causes more inflation to hit the poorest and has banks moving jobs to EU 😯

Are the remainers trying to sabotage talks so that it gets called off, whilst swivel eyed brexies trying to sabotage it so we have a hard one?

If there are any sensible heads leftover in the Tory party can they strike a fudged deal at the 11th hour? (How many businesses already left UK by then?)

I think all that is happening is May is trying to cling to power and the Tories have about 17 different messages and messengers

There is no plan May wants to stay PM, Boris wants to be the next PM, Hammond wants to make the best possible deal from a shit position, DD wants to God knows actually what he wants, etc

The idea that the Tory party could engineer all this to force no deal fails Hanlons razor. The reality is they are in a mess, they have divergent voices, divergent power bases, divergent agendas and a PM trying to appease these divergent sides to cling to power.

I think there is a tinge of empire hubris thrown in on all sides where they really do believe Mighty UK can make the EU kowtow to us. Never underestimate the arrogance of a Tory or their faith in the massive power of the UK or their faith in their own skills to achieve things - the privileged pricks just dont live in the real world. Reality is going to disappoint them massively and they sure as hell wont take it as personal failure but will have been thwarted by the evil Uk trying to cripple us aided by the traitor remoaners.
None of this will help bring unity to the UK

No there's no grand plan, just a bunch of individuals or small cells pulling in their own directions.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/eu-prepares-next-lovely-big-shit-sandwich-20171013137403