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Tagesschau24 have just flashed up .2% growth and -.5% industrial production with a picture of a broken union flag and suitably negative commentary.
good news Assos shorts are safe
https://www.ft.com/content/2341f6e8-2dd5-11e9-ba00-0251022932c8
oh, forgot rules of origin......
Tagesschau24 have just flashed up .2% growth and -.5% industrial production with a picture of a broken union flag and suitably negative commentary.
Whilst German growth for the same quarter was 0.1% and industrial production fell 0.4%, which is the fourth month in a row of decline.
Well when you start a debate with ‘I am told….’
You are one and half thousand pages late for the start of the debate on here (and you need to go back to the 70s if we're talking about debating what Corbyn and his immediate team are up to now).
Eurozone Verus GDP growth shows a different picture
UK growth isn't great but neither is it in any of the major EU countries, for what they are worth EU forecasts for 2019 growth are:
Eurozone, France and UK 1.3%
Germany 1.1%
It shows the same as far as I can see. The UK going from out performing to under performing - and it still hasn't hapened yet.
G7 figures include US which is showing far stronger growth than Europe at the moment, also include Japan which is more of a mixed bag.
are there any actual indicators that the UK growth will increase? Or the quantification of the early results from this year?
Certainly I've seen quite a few people pushing for orders to be delivered before March and an increase in stock being taken on which could look like growth and then fall flat next FY.
And more and more the question what will this cost us in April? Never good to have to say we have no idea.
I wonder what might have happened in the year since the data in those graphs… and what about the year upcoming? Anything about to happen that might put us even further behind?
Dear Sirs,
Please can I have my ball back, you don’t want to play nor include me and I feel justified by asking for my ball back.
Thank you.
T May
I wonder what might have happened in the year since the data in those graphs
UK growth has been slightly better than the Eurozone, UK has matched forecasts, Eurozone has under performed forecasts.
'Matched forecasts' meaning matching the lower forecasts made since we decided to Leave the EU? "It's okay… it's not going any worse than we were warned fellas… full steam ahead!"
Interesting that Mefty should now insist on comparing the UK (world's fifith biggest economy) with the Eurozone basket, which contains some weak economies, rather than its G7 peers. How long before you are comparing the UK with Greece to try and flatter the UK figures, Mefty?
Dont forget the new Tory Slogan is
F--K Business
its all part of taking back control (by turning government into a farce as they pursue the Tory dream of Brexit)
Matched lower forecasts yes, but the fact that the Eurozone under performed suggests that there are other factors leading to reduced growth.
The major economies in the Eurozone dominant the Eurozone figures, if anything the Eurozone figures flatter the major economies as the smaller economies did well in 2018 on the whole. But in the context of a debate about membership of the EU, a comparison to those economies seems most apposite. Germany's growth was 1.5% slightly ahead of the UK for the whole year, but Germany slowed quite rapidly towards the end of the year, hence the low forecast for 2019. France was a bit behind at 0.9%.
Germany’s growth was 1.5% slightly ahead of the UK for the whole year, but Germany slowed quite rapidly towards the end of the year, hence the low forecast for 2019.
That sounds a bit like the way my VW trip computer "forecasts" range remaining.
its all part of taking back control
and taking on the rest of the world if Williamson has any say in the matter.
He seems to be harking back to the days of gunboat diplomacy.
Gammon williamsons latest efforts at playing to the daily mail, is brilliantly summed up here
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/11/gavin-williamson-defence-policy-uk
Williamson’s speech reads like the pompous rantings of a 1950s Tory on the make. It cannot conceivably have been cleared with colleagues, let alone the Treasury. It is best forgotten.
I liked:
What on earth is Williamson talking about – apart from a desire to be Tory leader?
The really scary thing is Williamson probably only just sneaks in to the top 5 of stupid cabinet members
I'm now looking very much forward to magic Grandpa's followers saying how that wasn't really what he meant...
I love all these clips of footage being described as “unearthed” like they’re well hidden. My guess is that there’s one a week for the whole of the transition period.
I’m now looking very much forward to magic Grandpa’s followers saying how that wasn’t really what he meant…
Same as the arch remainer PM we have, at this point even digging up old clips of JC is pointless to the debate. I know some will be off to have a little shuffle over it but what's the actual point. He can't whip his MP's to do things they don't want to do, just as May can't whip her's. Neither of them can deliver anything and their chosen path is impossible.
Anyway back to more 'great' Brexit news - Mefty - I'm relying on you to put a positive spin on this - https://news.sky.com/story/government-to-miss-brexit-trade-deal-target-11634661
Slightly off-topic but note that even though (another dimwit) Amber Rudd has acknowledged (admitted) that the rollout of Universal Credit has directly led to an increase in people going to food banks, SHE STILL DIDNT ACTUALLY APOLOGISE!
I strongly suspect the reason for this is that she knows that a lot of Tory support is actually cheering this.
We’ve got to get rid of these buggers once and for all.
The really scary thing is Williamson probably only just sneaks in to the top 5 of stupid cabinet members
He’s up against some pretty stiff competition.
Aircraft carrier against relatively modern military with cruise missiles, Exocet type air to ship and decent subs? No, ta very much. On the bottom within an hour.
A 20 per cent drop in the value of the pound might not be “such a bad thing”, David Davis has claimed as he called for a tax-cutting no-deal budget.
Good grief Charlie Brown......
A 20 per cent drop in the value of the pound might not be “such a bad thing”, David Davis has claimed as he called for a tax-cutting no-deal budget.
Let me check on our Iron ore reserves, or aluminium, or heaps of the other stuff we import in order to try and generate some GDP....
a 20% drop in the £ would be good if you have moved your funds off shore
Not so long ago that level of economic illiteracy in a senior politician would have been staggering
Nowadays? Just another day in Brexitland
Well with Grayling's latest brilliant effort, Davis has to try something to get back above him in the "thicko" charts.
read 2 depressing articles today
made me think more than ever that we might actually crash out with no deal
& the swivel eyed tories will just keep blaming everyone but themselves & millions of leave voters will agree
This was on twitter earlier and gave me a laugh. Laughs are needed as we hurtle towards the cliff with the controllers arguing about what what speed we should aim to go over the top.
Switzerland
Chile
The Faroe Islands
Eastern and Southern Africa
Splendid
Your favourite government department (yes, him again) is apparently being sued for conducting the procurement process for the ferry contract shenanigans in secret. And we know how well that went.
Eurotunnel claim they weren't given the chance to bid for contracts (or I assume parts of contracts seeing as it was split 3 ways in the end); Fayling says it was because he knew they didn't have the capacity and it was for maritime carriers only.
Q1 Wouldn't you speak to the largest freight carrier in this area and see what they can do to flex their capacity - maybe they couldn't do it all but every bit would be useful.
Q2 How much capacity is provided by no ships?
I said at the time it was weasel words - along the lies of 'we've conducted due diligence and there's nothing that would preclude Seaborne from participating in a contract with the government'. (So could I, I don't have a criminal record / been disbarred from running a company, etc. I can't run freight for them though....) Now I wonder if the procurement process was even fishier.
mickmcd
Member
Switzerland
Chile
The Faroe Islands
Eastern and Southern AfricaSplendid
These are just rollover deals too, I thought the point was we'd negotiate amazeballs new trade deals that'd wee all over what we'd done before....?
The promise of amazing trade deals . . . .
It's like we've gone to conquer a foreign land somewhere and, to our surprise, found that they are all carrying machine guns when we thought they would be carrying spears.
How will we drive our goods to Switzerland? Isn't it surrounded by EU countries?
How will we drive our goods to Switzerland? Isn’t it surrounded by EU countries?
Ah obviously the Berlin airlift again innit
Next month's we will take back control of india
Looks like T-Maybot is set to step down in the summer.
Dear Sirs,
I failed.
Bye, bye.
T May
Looks like T-Maybot is set to step down in the summer.
I will be really sad to see her go....
I will be really sad to see her go….
The detail to keep in mind, who follows? remember the electoral system of the Tory party. The more insane the candidate, if it goes to the membership, the more likely they are to win. So Williamson declaring war of the world is a good thing for his electoral chances.
So it looks like, according to yougov, Corbyn has simultaneously lost support to the lib Dems, the greens and to a lesser extent ukip.
The magic grandad is getting punished for his dithering on Brexit, like I said he would. The young and remain voters are leaving him.
Apparently the word from the bunker in Westminster is that May has made her mind up that, once again, keeping the Tory party together at any cost, is priority number 1
So she’s caved in, once again, to the ERG headbangers and is now just going through the motions and running down the clock to a No Deal Brexit
So it looks like, according to yougov, Corbyn has simultaneously lost support to the lib Dems, the greens and to a lesser extent ukip.
Well every survey/poll I've done has asked you to say how well each party is doing on Brexit and if their position is clear.
Kicking it down the road isn't going to work.
What do you mean by "work"?
If it "frees" us from the "evil" EU, while keeping Corbyn, Milne & Co in charge of the Labour Party… then it is working just fine for them.
Can't say I'm surprised Binners, start buying crossbows and tinned food. 😀
I will never vote Labour again.
Don't go crazy… but DO make sure you have a surplus of any essential medical supplies. Anyone not gaming their prescription to get a couple of months of leeway, just in case, should be working at putting that in place RIGHT NOW.
Nahh man, I'm going to go and build an Anderson shelter in my old mans back yard. It's on the right side of one of the Sheffield valleys to survive a Chinese nuclear strike after Williamson starts WW3 to distract us from having to eat rats.
I think you’ll find that the Spirit of the Blitz is just what’s needed to bring us all together
is now just going through the motions and running down the clock to a No Deal Brexit
Yep. I'm no pretty much convinced we are leaving with no-deal. Expsicailly with the constant shifting of any votes later and later.
Looks like T-Maybot is set to step down in the summer.
This is one of the (many) things that annoys me about this whole debacle.
When the proverbial inevitably hits the fan, those directly culpable will just "do a Cameron" and sod off to their holiday homes in the South of France with their newly acquired German / Irish / etc passports and offshore bank accounts. The Teflon-coated shitehawks.
Wonder what Jeremy will make of this - or will he just ignore it.
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1095267636810792960
Yep. I’m no pretty much convinced we are leaving with no-deal.
At this point I think the single most likely outcome by a country mile is the UK asking for an extension of A50. Credit where it's due, there's one thing that the government has been consistently brilliant at over the last two years and that's coming up with ever more desperate can-kicking delaying tactics in lieu of actually doing anything.
Come March 28th, I'll bet one of my lesser-used internal organs that May will be in Brussels begging for an extension, like a University student who's spent the last three months consuming their own bodyweight in Diamond White and then suddenly realised that their assignment is due tomorrow and they've got as far as writing the title page.
Still. Take back control, hey.
I've seen a theory that people with substantially different intellect or life experience will mutually view each other as incomprehensible or stupid. So Dave from down the pub would just not understand the arguments of the award winning economist, dismissing them out of hand based on his world view, and vice versa. I'm now starting to hope that this applies to our politicians, and that to them we are all like Dave from down the pub. Sadly I fear the truth is the other way round.
Come March 28th, I’ll bet one of my lesser-used internal organs that May will be in Brussels begging for an extension,
No chance. She'll be sitting on her sofa while the country goes up in flames.
Unless enough Labour idiots(*) believe her lies and vote for her crappy deal.
*yes, I know that looks a bit like a tautology at this point.
So Dave from down the pub would just not understand the arguments of the award winning economist, dismissing them out of hand
I'm afraid that idiots have been given examples of specious reasoning to justify their idiotic conclusions - glib phrases like "well, it's just a theory", as trotted out by creationists, climate deniers etc are now used to justify stuff like not believing in gravity, creating wonderful trade deals etc.
I’ve seen a theory that people with substantially different intellect or life experience will mutually view each other as incomprehensible or stupid. So Dave from down the pub would just not understand the arguments of the award winning economist, dismissing them out of hand based on his world view, and vice versa. I’m now starting to hope that this applies to our politicians, and that to them we are all like Dave from down the pub. Sadly I fear the truth is the other way round.
As I've got older and less arrogant what I have come to appreciate is that a reasonable education (and by that I mean A level or degree level or above study, not the price of the institution you went to) gives you the ability to understand when you know you don't know something. That sometimes you have to acknowledge that you don't have the expertise and need to acquiesce to someone that does. That education also gives you a better sense of smell for bullshiters where searching for your go to expert. Dave down the pub's problem is invariably he does not have the intellect or educative experience to appreciate what a dumbf*** he is on a subject or how useless his source material is.
Why grant an extension? The obvious reply is "well you're out now but we'll just carry on as before and you'll slowly have to adapt, just like you did when you came in, with realistic deadlines being set". Getting a concensus for an extension is not going to be easy, the only two EU concensus are the deal signed or withdraw Art. 50.
At this point I think the single most likely outcome by a country mile is the UK asking for an extension of A50.
This is is my view.
The No-deal scenario is a simple line in the sand. After the date you still have options.
A) Remain in the EU and continue to be part of it.
B) Extend A50 whilst this government and its associated parties kick each other in the groin, repeatedly.
Don’t forget A50 needs pens on paper. To revoke it doesn’t, to extend it doesn’t.
Convert - reading that makes a lot of sense...
I just hope that if we do crash to a No-Deal Brexit that T-Bot is going to share her insulin supplies with my daughter...
No mention of Brexit at all in todays cabinet apparently...
Not so, Bikebouy. Extending Art. 50 requires unanimous agreement of the 27.
The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.
Why grant an extension?
At this point I think the single most likely outcome by a country mile is the UK asking for an extension of A50.
Yeah sums it up, we can ask for an extension to which the reply is what is going to change?
We are not arguing over minor points it's substantial issues that the UK does not want to accept.
The only way the negotiations will restart is with a group who have a decent plan and a sizeable majority to agree that, if not the EU just delays the flounce.
The headbangers are running the show. When even Leadsom makes noises suggesting that even she knows their game is to run the clock down and then still oppose any deal on a technicality, then the situation is desperate.
“The point is to ensure that the UK cannot be held in a backstop permanently. How it’s achieved is not something to be purist about,” she said.
But in the same breath she is still happy to use peace and stability in Northern Ireland as a means of blackmail.
“It would be an extraordinary outcome if the thing the backstop is seeking to avoid – a hard border in Northern Ireland – if the EU were so determined to be completely intransigent about it that they actually incur the very thing they are seeking to avoid by pushing the UK into a situation where we leave without a deal at the end of March,” she said.
Worrying times - if the nutters are worrying the likes of Leadsom we are headed for a very dark place indeed.
Don’t forget A50 needs pens on paper. To revoke it doesn’t, to extend it doesn’t.
I'm not sure I get what you mean. Pen has been put to paper on A50. It's what happens as a default on March 29th. Revoke and extend need pen to paper to implement them. I would be surprised if the EU would agree to an extension without some caveats.
I’m not sure I get what you mean. Pen has been put to paper on A50. It’s what happens as a default on March 29th. Revoke and extend need pen to paper to implement them. I would be surprised if the EU would agree to an extension without some caveats.
Two of those caveats being Gibraltar to Spain and fish to France.
It's OUR barren lump of rock and we have huge aircraft carrier that says so!!
I would imagine that the EU member nations will have privately agreed to give authority to Barnier to agree an extension without needing to vote, they've given him the negotiating authority.
That education also gives you a better sense of smell for bullshiters where searching for your go to expert. Dave down the pub’s problem is invariably he does not have the intellect or educative experience to appreciate what a dumbf*** he is on a subject or how useless his source material is.
STW big hitter then.
Two of those caveats being Gibraltar to Spain and fish to France.
If you believe the Express's jingoistic* reporting
*Of just about everything, not just Brexit.
There appears to be a lot of support in Spain for linking an extension of Article 50 to 'something' on Gibraltar. I'm sure some of it is for domestic consumption and it may well be that Spain get told to drop it if an extension is in the EU's interest but why wouldn't they ask for it?
As I’ve got older and less arrogant what I have come to appreciate is that a reasonable education (and by that I mean A level or degree level or above study, not the price of the institution you went to) gives you the ability to understand when you know you don’t know something.
School, for a lot of people, is adversarial. Teachers are the bastards trying to make you do boring stuff, and you are trying to get out of it. Whereas if/when you get past that, you're there to learn and you're in a genuine learning environment and your goal is to develop and progress. Huge change in outlook.
the EU aren't bothered about Gibraltar, it's just a jingoistic bit of tabloid nonsense. Gibraltarians want to stay in the UK, there is a border, Spain are one member. They are all about the trade rules so the fishing areas are probably more relevant but even these aren't the main deal.
Grauniad's political correspondent suggesting this on Twitter:
@jessicaelgot
This scenario would have seemed unthinkable just weeks ago and now seems one of the most probable - A final offer at the March 22 EU summit, with the offer of a short A50 extension. A vote in parliament the following week. If lost, then no deal.
But then what happens to the backlog of legislation that needs to get through parliament to underpin No Deal?
And as we know, the last thing a political party wants is an informed and educated electorate
France is definitely bothered about Gibralta as an airbnb card, which is a payment card but not a credit card so not subject to banking rules allows payment the French fisc can't see. It's possible because of Gibraltan laws that facilitate tax avoidance.
But then what happens to the backlog of legislation that needs to get through parliament to underpin No Deal?
Isn't that what the transition period is for?