[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I heard an estimate that a 2-minute delay on lorries at Calais would result in a 20-mile tailback within the day. In totally unrelated news,

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/11/dover-checks-would-take-eight-hours-per-lorry-in-no-deal-brexit

Even if the figures are "project fear," this surely must scream "what are we doing this for, again?" It's like preparing for war, only we've waged it on ourselves.

I'm a bit unclear on the mechanism, would it need to be a vote of no confidence? A proper VONC this time?
Maybe corbyn will finally get off his high horse now the commons are a bit more bold? Or will he keep parroting May with his defunkt 'jobs first' brexit mantra.

Nobody knows.

Maybe May will ask for an extention when her deal bombs.. But she can't really.. A retraction?

So no deal is now not an option

But they want a deal

EU say no more negotiations

Which means maybot 5.0s (more lives than a cat) deal is the option they will be voting through on the 15th even though no one wanted that one

Or did I misunderstand the toilet news this morning.

Yep that is the deal that will probably be voted down. What happens next depends who grabs control.

Everyone ready for Groundhog Day today?

Where all the Brexiteers stand up and fulminate in parliament about Mays deal, the likes of Bill Cash leave us all slack-jawed at just how ignorant they are, Jezza demands a general election (yet again), the rest of the labour party sit in impotent silence, wishing their 'leader' dead and Anna Soubry is once again the only person in 'The House' apparently in contact with the real world?

Wasn't his that we did for 5 days at the back end of last year?

Hah, corbyn making noises about a confidence vote against may... Sound familiar?

Extension of A50 is not going to happen without a referendum (with a significant chance of remain losing again).

So it's either retraction or referendum. Or No Deal with even less preparation than our government has already committed (if that were possible).

The Benedict Cumberbatch drama has not increased my optimism about Remain being able to muster any sort of campaign again. If anything, the arguments about 'taking back control' are even more compelling to those who voted for it last time , only this time it would be taking it back from Parliament as well as the EU.

EU say no more negotiations

EU would readily renegotiate but it would have to be on the basis of the UK offering a different position / set of red lines. When they say 'it's the best deal possible' what they mean is that it's the best deal possible based on the current stance.

It's like going into a garage and demanding that you want less than 3 years old, leather interior, air con, 5 doors and automatic, and being told the best they can do is £12K

And we're saying we want it to be less than £10K and they're sticking at saying £12K is the best possible.

If we now said we're prepared to go up to 4 years old and leather isn't necessary, there could be a different deal offered, but would rely on us doing that first.

The issue is that May is (was?) terrified of eg: the ERG threat and hence the red lines to satisfy those people as opposed to what's really important and in the interests of the country. Offer to review them and then see what the best possible deal looks like.

(issue 2 is that having put all her credibility in this being the best deal, she can't easily admit that other better ones are possible)

Delay / revoke and start over with a sensible proposal and see what we then get.

Hah, corbyn making noises about a confidence vote against may… Sound familiar?

Yes but as most people seem to agree he can't really do it until she loses the vote or pulls is this time. He needs to show there is no confidence and that she has failed.

only this time it would be taking it back from Parliament

...and giving it to who? James Goddard? Tommy Robinson? Ronnie Pickering?

@martinhutch. Despite risk of losing I would still welcome another ref. I refuse to believe blighty is as racist, ill informed, intolerant, and just plain insular as the brexiteers would have us believe. They have twisted the meaning of the result to their own ends.
However, given what we all now know, if the 2nd ref result was still to leave, then I would be convinced the country has gone to the dogs. At least we would know.

So no deal is now not an option

On the contrary. Once May's deal is voted down it will become the ONLY option unless Parliament can agree on something else.

So Barry Gardiner says he backs a second referendum, then has obviously been slapped down by the office of Saint Jeremy and now issued a statement saying that that was just a personal opinion and not party policy. Whatever that is?

I know there are fans of the beardy messiah on here. Any one of you still delusional enough to believe that Jezza is going to do anything at all to stand in the way of any Brexit Theresa manages to get, even if it ultimately means a no deal?

He clearly wants a no deal Brexit. He's wanted it for 40 years, and is doing everything in his power to facilitate it. Labour will vote against Mays deal, but those sat behind him will be doing so hoping to put a stop to Brexit, whereas Jezza is doing so to see the no deal exit he's always wanted.

I can't see this uneasy truce between Jezza and his MP's lasting much longer. Not least because he's now rapidly losing the support of 'the membershhip'

Not that he cares about there's, or anyone elses opinion

Well to be fair there are plenty of MPs at the moment with personal opinions which go against the party policy. I would hope Jezza would not be in favour of No Deal and is simply waiting for the next May Deal vote to fail before playing the 4 aces he imagines he holds. But who knows.

Personally I'm still against a further referendum. Parliament needs to man up and kick the result of the first one into the long grass.

Personally I’m still against a further referendum. Parliament needs to man up and kick the result of the first one into the long grass

If that happened I'd be happy without a 2nd ref, the problem is they are all spineless and need a "will of the people" to fall back on.

He clearly wants a no deal Brexit

I don't see that there is any evidence for this. I think he wants a deal along the lines of May's deal, and thinks (probably correctly) that by bumbling along he can get that and also blame the Tories for any problems that crop up. Win-win.

Parliament also needs to man further up and sort out a whole bunch of the issues which caused folks to vote leave in the first place, the majority of which are actually in our control. (immigration, austerity, people alienated from the politicians etc).

If the objections to staying in are removed, then folks will feel that their protest vote has been useful, despite the fact that the result of the ref is in the long grass.

Then and only then will some of the divisions, that have been so exposed, during this process start to be healed.

It seems to me that we did vote for a massive change... just not the one that was on the ballot paper

If those in power choose not to change and just carry on as they did before now that the nasty Brexit idea might have gone away, then there will always be an opportunity for populist politicians to steer the masses in their particular direction?

I know there are fans of the beardy messiah on here. Any one of you still delusional enough to believe that Jezza is going to do anything at all to stand in the way of any Brexit Theresa manages to get, even if it ultimately means a no deal?

Used to be a fan of this, thought he had his principles on point and I agreed with him on a lot of his policies. Now, I've seen his stubbornness to change and his greed to gain power to the detriment of going against the people who voted for him. He needs to step down, go tend to his allotment and disappear into history. In my opinion.

There was a general election just after the referendum. People voted for more of the same from the same people.

I don’t see that there is any evidence for this. I think he wants a deal along the lines of May’s deal, and thinks (probably correctly) that by bumbling along he can get that and also blame the Tories for any problems that crop up. Win-win.

Yep, that is how I see it too. Whereas the likes of Binners want to see him do something but can't explain what that would be and how it would make any difference. We will only know what worked or didn't work at the end of the game.

I agree kerley - I have asked many times what the Corbyn haters would have him do and only had one partial respose.

Have to say that I am not a Corbyn fan boy. I think what he did to turn Labour back into Labour with Labour policies was great and I supported him when he got elected as leader (especially against the alternatives at the time)

I do however think he will never get over the uphill battle in the media and was tainted a long time ago in a lot of people's minds and won't get over that either. He is also not the best PR choice.

Would happily have someone else in his place as long as policies stayed in same direction.

Parliament also needs to man further up and sort out a whole bunch of the issues which caused folks to vote leave in the first place, the majority of which are actually in our control.

Oh yes undoubtedly. There certainly are a lot of issues which need sorting out for which the EU is the scapegoat. But then maybe since both major parties seem to want out, this whole mess has been engineered to make sure the public also want out (perhaps a bit tin foil there admittedly but... it makes you think!).

There was a general election just after the referendum. People voted for more of the same from the same people.

What was on offer, other than more of the same?

If things are to be fixed moving forwards then something has to change and the people who were so hacked off with the state of play were prepared to vote to leave the EU, despite it being against their best interests, need to be given an olive branch of some kind.

Otherwise the division and the bullying will have fertile ground to continue

But then maybe since both major parties seem to want out, this whole mess has been engineered to make sure the public also want out

If that is the case then we need a new party who does actually represent the views of their membership and the electorate as a whole?

What was on offer, other than more of the same?

Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid. Wherever you lived there was an alternative. No election has ever been won by one vote so those who talk about voting tacticaly are wrong. Vote for what you want in the hope other people will want it too.

@Edukator what the election proved is that people do not vote in a GE on a single issue. Trying to extrapolate feeling based on that is foolish.

Who says the folk who are feeling that disillusioned with the state of things even vote in General Elections?

If that is the case then we need a new party who does actually represent the views of their membership and the electorate as a whole?

Well it's probably not realistic to suggest that one party can represent the entire electorate but I've always been pretty convinced that the majority of the population are in fact wishy washy liberals like me and we need a strong centre party. The LibDems were getting there but sadly shot themselves in the foot.

I'm a fan of multiple parties in coalition but that option was thrown out by the electorate in the electoral reform referendum!

Parliament also needs to man further up and sort out a whole bunch of the issues which caused folks to vote leave in the first place, the majority of which are actually in our control. (immigration, austerity, people alienated from the politicians etc).
...
It seems to me that we did vote for a massive change… just not the one that was on the ballot paper

This. I've been saying this all along, we need Reform not Remain. The great unwashed need to be offered something better than merely "do nothing."

Indeed Cougar. The question is (a rhetorical one perhaps) how do we make them do that, given there are so many in positions of power who want to steer things in the opposite direction?

Ah but can't reform without remaining. So we first need to remain.

given there are so many in positions of power who want to steer things in the opposite direction?

So here is the real point, which things are going in the wrong direction? We need to get through all the BS about what the EU stops us doing. Perhaps having a fact based discussion with actual fact checking and pulling people up on she lies and misrepresentation - immigration is the classic where the UK had loads of options but took up none of them.

He clearly wants a no deal Brexit.

Well he's on record saying pretty much the opposite. But carry on.

I'm by no means a Corbyn hater but as I have mentioned in the last few days I'm losing faith in his direction.

As for what I would have him do, I'd like to see him role the dice and get behind remain as I think that's the only real chance he has of becoming PM. From there he could implement his ideas as best he could within the boundaries imposed.

It would certainly be a gamble as he could well lose a big chuck of the brexit supporting northern Labour voters but IMO if he continues as he is he WILL lose plenty of the young and idealistic that got behind him at the last election. Either would mean he wouldn't win an election but backing remain stands him in a better position with more chance of a swell of votes that could bring him to No 10. There's no point in him backing brexit with the thought it will allow him more freedom when he'd have no chance of being in power.

When I say he needs to back remain I know he officially did but he now needs to get full behind a second ref or whatever is necessary to get the remainers back on side. The electorate will need a proper choice if there's an election, not a choice of what sort of brexit you want.

The question is (a rhetorical one perhaps) how do we make them do that,

Who knows.

One of the things I've come to realise in the last couple of years is that the system is fundamentally broken. We have a skewed voting system which means that a party can get fewer actual votes than another and yet still get into power because of numbers of seats, then once in power the whip system means that MPs have to toe the party line regardless of what they actually believe or risk being sacked. And yet the gammons call the EU undemocratic.

Meanwhile, we had an advisory referendum two years ago which divided the country almost exactly in half; one half is now almost arbitrarily "the will of the people" who must be obeyed at all costs and the other half is "we won you lost shut up and get on with it stop moaning it's all your fault really anyway why do you hate democracy" who are to be roundly ignored and routinely silenced with death threats.

We're proper****ed aren't we.

This. I’ve been saying this all along, we need Reform not Remain. The great unwashed need to be offered something better than merely “do nothing.”

Yep, so let's stop these Brexit circles and look at the much much bigger picture.

chestrockwell - the problem with that is he will split the party if he backs revoking a50 and also gives the right wing press an easy attack line.

the problem with that is he will split the party

When the "game" of enabling Brexit ends in Brexit (leaving all other options on the table and leaving them to rot there), how will that not split "the party".

We all know theres only one game in town vote-wise. A general election, with the labour parties present policy (such as it is) would amount to asking the question:

"given that Brexit is a great idea, which one of us would you like to deliver it?"

Immediately disenfranchising 48% of the population

Great policy!

This is the latest polling of labour voters and members from Sundays Observer:

If Corbyn backs Brexit, he faces electoral catastrophe

The conventional voting intention question produces a six-point Conservative lead (40% to 34%). This is bad enough for an opposition that ought to be reaping electoral dividends at a time when the government is in crisis.

However, when voters are asked how they would vote if Labour failed to resist Brexit, the Conservatives open up a 17-point lead (43% to 26%). That would be an even worse result than in Margaret Thatcher’s landslide victory in 1983, when Labour slumped to 209 seats, its worst result since the 1930s.

Immediately disenfranchising 48% of the population

Approx 54%, no?

Kelvin - bexit will also sp-lit the party. a line along that corbyn has followed is the only one possible IMO that does not split tha party. Once mays deal falls then labour can take the next steps - which IMO should and will include a second referendum

Why labour supporters want to continually misrepresent corbyn is a mystery to me

He campaigned for remain
He spoke to more people at amore meetings than anyone else
He voted remain.

Don't disagree tjagain, hence why it's a huge gamble. Problem is every turn for him has possible disastrous results. Backing brexit as he seems to be doing will alienate a larger number of his supporters, labour voters and possible voters IMO. Back the people who supported you before, not the ones who didn't.

Labour policy is Labour Brexit. And, before you say it TJ, YES IT IS. See any interview with Corbyn in last few months.

Majority of the following don't want Brexit…

- Labour Members
- Labour voters at last GE
- People eligible to vote now
- UK residents

So who is Corbyn best representing?

We're not misrepresenting him. He wants Brexit. He's a Brexiteer. Simple as that.

You can live in denial all you like Uncle Jezza. He's a lifelong Brexiteer who's just sitting back (even if this means defying his MP's, supporters and labour members) and letting the Tories get on with Brexit because its what he's always wanted. He's on the same side as Rees-Mogg on this issue. He wants Mays deal to fail because he wants a hard brexit, but is too spineless to say so as he doesn't want to be blamed for it. He will be blamed for it, obviously. On account of it being his fault.

The only opposition to Brexit is coming from the backbenches of both sides of the house. The Labour 'leadership' has either actively facilitated it (3 line whip to trigger article 50, then leaving the cutoms union and single market) or abstained and sat impotently by, refusing to oppose any aspect of it.

He's a Brexiteer. Open your eyes FFS!

I would rather not take your word or view on Corbyn as you seem to have some 'issues'

I’d like to see him role the dice and get behind remain as I think that’s the only real chance he has of becoming PM.

There's zero chance of him becoming the next PM if he campaigns for reversing the referendum result. There may be little chance if he doesn't. More importantly though, if he abandons the white working class brexit supporters, who do you think will benefit? Those Tommy Robinson idiots will be doing a lot more than harassing MPs if they manage to capture mass white working class support. Whichever way this plays out, the next few years are going to be pretty chaotic. The genie is already out of the bottle.

I would rather not take your word

Listen to what Corbyn says… you don't have or listen to Binners, or me, just listen to Corbyn… he is not hiding it! He wants a GE, and Labour to then carry out Brexit. He says it again and again.

So who is Corbyn best representing?

Corbyn is following the result of the vote (he would be crucified if he didn't). Whether he is pretending to follow the vote or not is another matter but he has to look like he is.

As for majority of people not wanting Brexit, that is just you making that up as I have never seen a result from any referendum after the 2016 one and that is all that counts.

Listen to what Corbyn says

Yep, that is what I am doing. I just hear it differently than you and think other things are in the game. Different perspectives on what someone is saying, neither of us can be 100% on it.

So… are you simultaneously saying that Corbyn isn't enabling Brexit, and also that he is doing so because he has to?

He wants a GE, and Labour to then carry out Brexit. He says it again and again.

It's hardly news that Corbyn is a brexit supporter. What he isn't though, and what he has said repeatedly is that he's not a no-deal supporter. He's on record more times than I can remember as saying he wants a permanent customs union, access to the single market, regulatory alignment on the environment and workers rights etc. That's about as far as you can get from the like of JRM and the rest of the nutters. He's an ultra soft brexiter. The only thing he wants to change is the rules for state aid of industry, and I reckon the EU would probably give some ground on that.

Dazh, again, that's the gamble. If he chases the white working class brexit supporters he alienates the people who gave him half a chance last time. Do you really think those that were inspired by Labours election campaign will once again be drawn out to vote for someone who offers brexit? Without them he gets wiped out on the scale predicted last time.

I have never seen a result from any referendum after the 2016 one and that is all that counts.

So you're in favour of a third referendum then? That's progress at least.

The only thing he wants to change is the rules for state aid of industry, and I reckon the EU would probably give some ground on that.

Actually… outside the EU treaties we lose our exemptions from WTO rules on privatisation, public procurement, and state subsidies. The American companies are biting at the bit waiting for that to happen.

So… are you simultaneously saying that Corbyn isn’t enabling Brexit, and also that he is doing so because he has to?

Nope.

So you’re in favour of a third referendum then? That’s progress at least.

No, as I think it would go the same one as the 2016 referendum and the position would then be even worse. And not sure what you mean by "that's progress at least", hopefully you don't count progress as agreeing with you...

Andrew Rawnsley was bang on about Corbyn in Sundays Obsever:

To stop Brexit, Labour supporters will have to revolt against their leader

Note the accurate conclusion:

About a third of Labour members reckon he’s mainly worried about losing the support of Leave voters. This is certainly true of some members of the shadow cabinet who say things such as “we’ll lose the north”. But I don’t think it is the most important reason for being against a referendum in the case of the leader himself. Nearly a quarter of his members put Mr Corbyn’s unwillingness to embrace a people’s vote down to the fact that he actually supports Brexit. They have been paying attention. The clearest thing he said in his recent interview with the Guardian’s Heather Stewart was when he attacked the EU’s rules on competition and subsidies: “I don’t want to be told by somebody else that we can’t use state aid in order to be able to develop industry in this country.”

The conclusion for Labour supporters ought to be clear. If they want another referendum, they will have to learn from their leader and rebel against him

No, as I think it would go the same one as the 2016 referendum and the position would then be even worse. And not sure what you mean by “that’s progress at least”, hopefully you don’t count progress as agreeing with you…

Despite evidence against that?
The current deal has low support
No Deal has low support
Brexit Support is below 50%

Yes that is from opinion polls but at some point you have to start reading them and taking note, if you only accept the referendum and GE results (especially as people overwhelmingly did not vote based on Brexit) as the only things you can base anything on you will learn nothing and you are Theresa May!!

Nope.

So, what are you saying?

In words that don't make you look like you're trolling…

When I say he needs to back remain I know he officially did but he now needs to get full behind a second ref or whatever is necessary to get the remainers back on side. The electorate will need a proper choice if there’s an election, not a choice of what sort of brexit you want.

I still think there's too many remainers who are Tory through & through, & could never vote for Labour.
Another GE would be a very dangerous game & could end up with minimal change at Government level.

MPs are now voting on Dominic Grieve's amendment - result will be announced in around 15 minutes. The cross-party amendment demands the government outline its next steps within three days if Ms May's deal is defeated - rather than the 21 days plus seven sitting days currently permitted.

I still think there’s too many remainers who are Tory through & through

Do you not think this might be even more true of people who support Brexit?

Labour policy is Labour Brexit.

simply wrong. try actually reading labour party output not anti corbyn twaddle

Rawnsly is one of those constantly pushing anti corbyn twaddle

Lets say it again

He campaigned for remain
He voted remain

This is certainly true of some members of the shadow cabinet who say things such as “we’ll lose the north”.

Sometimes, the simplest explanations for human behaviour are the best ones. The Labour leader is not making any effort to prevent Brexit because he doesn’t want to prevent Brexit.

I don't think it's either, to win a GE, now that scotland is lost to them, labour have to win pro brexit marginals and not so marginals in the south like Corby, Wellingborough, Rochford & Southend East, Romford and Basildon & Billericay etc

The issue many have with Corbyn and why they like Rawnsley constantly make up things to attack him with is that if corbyn is right on labour future direction then they have wasted their political lives chasing a Blairite agenda and they cannot admit they are wrong - So Corbyn must go and any lies will do to get him gone.

The Guardian and Observer have constantly attacked corbyn right from the word go and give his enemies in the party free access to do so

Rawnsly is one of those constantly pushing anti corbyn twaddle

...or the truth?

Depending on how effective your blinkers are

He campaigned for remain

like a surly teenager being dragged to a family party when he'd rather be drinking cider in the park with his mates

He voted remain

Did he? Know that, do you? He says he did? Then the following day he came out of the blocks with about a hundred times more enthusiasm than anyone had seen during the campaign to state that ARTICLE 50 MUST BE TRIGGERED IMMIDIATELY!!!!

Bit of a giveaway that one, wasn't it? Even Iain Duncan Smith thought that would be insane!

He then three line whipped his party to trigger article 50, then to leave the customs union and the single market

Yep... Andrew Rawnsley's clearly wrong. Corbyn really is anti-Brexit, despite all evidence to the contrary

Please open your eyes TJ. He's not the messiah, he's.....

Government defeat ! MPs vote by 308-297 to accept Dominic Grieve's amendment. If Theresa May's deal is voted down next week, she will now have just 3 days to return to Parliament with a Plan B - instead of 21. Parliament takes back control.

And another amendment goes through.

& another defeat for the government...

Or an affront to Democracy if you follow Leave.EU

Or an affront to Democracy if you follow Leave.EU

Its quite amusing seeing some of the complaints. Apparently Leadsom started asking for the legal advice to be provided. The same Leadsom do did her best to avoid providing the legal advice on brexit for the government.

poor ol' maybot, her programming was all how do i get the ERG onside only to be stabbed in the back by her remainers.

So the will of Parliament is that if the deal is rejected, they want May to return promptly with her next plan to stop her from running the clock down further.

Now the pro-Brexit crowd are seeking to split hairs over whether an amendment is a motion or not, who can therefore table one, and so on....

And they say a second referendum, or viewing an advisory referendum as advisory would be undemocratic?

From the Beeb "Labour has, meanwhile, said it will table a motion of no confidence in the government if Mrs May's deal is voted down next week".

So all the people who campaigned to leave the EU specifically to 'restore the sovereignty of Parliament' are now objecting to parliament asserting its sovereignty because it disagrees with them?

The rank hypocrisy really is quite staggering, isn't it?

tjagain

The issue many have with Corbyn and why they like Rawnsley constantly make up things to attack him with is that if corbyn is right on labour future direction then they have wasted their political lives chasing a Blairite agenda and they cannot admit they are wrong – So Corbyn must go and any lies will do to get him gone.

How do you know what issue "many" have with Corbyn? Have you spoken with the "many" and have they informed you of their issues?