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cooking the books
Blah blah blah. Haven't we had enough of simplistic nonsense yet?
dannyh - exactly
Macron has two problems, the extreme left and extreme right. 42% of gilet jaune vote Le Pen and a lot of the rest extreme left. Only 5% of Macron's voters are gilets jaunes. So the extreme right and left Frexit supporters need convincing Frexit is a bad idea. Two Brexit results will help that; no Brexit because if the Brits don't do it must be a very bad idea; a catastrophic Brexit which proves it's a very bad idea. Merkel too, and any other centre right or lft leader.
Macron has two problems, the extreme left and extreme right.
He only has one problem really. The French. 😉
The whole government seems to have forgotten that only just over 50% voted for this, so there is going to be just under 50% of the population that are pissed off. Either way they are ignoring half the population. Weirdly at the moment leave voters are the loudest & most vitriolic, even tho we are leaving.
Actually it's worse than that; turnout was 72.2% of which 51.89% voted Leave, meaning only 37.6% of the then registered voting population said they wanted to leave, 34.6% said they wanted to stay and we don't get to know what the remaining (presumably apathetic or confused?) 27.8% wanted.
And it's not just the Government that's forgotten, the media seem to have forgotten, TBF it was almost two years ago and it's not like you can just look these things up on Wikipedia...
But yes people seem to forget just how marginal it was, of course had someone had the foresight to set a minimum quota/proportion rule for the vote any confusion could have been avoided, You know in a country with a first past the post system for general elections, it wouldn't have been that controversial... 20/20 hindsight is a wonderful thing of course.
Instead even those of us who weren't in favour we are apparently beholden to keeping the shoutiest third of our population "Happy" it seems. But they're always kept (or been held?) one step away from the job of actually having to deliver what they claim they wanted...
Personally I can't understand Why May is bothering to hang on in there, I don't like her particularly but she's done her bit, seized the poisoned chalice and brought an EU deal back to parliament, so why not just let them vote it down, resign and let the Brexiteers take over, lets see what they can actually "Deliver" in the next three months?
Let the Torries swing all the way towards right wing populism While Labour/momentum push towards making themselves a Left wing opposition (that far too many voters can't really see in power) and we can get back to some good old fashioned polarized politics as we crash our way out of the EU...
I don’t tent to say ‘stupid man’ and I’ve not heard it said often. It’s usually ‘stupid idiot’ for a man and ‘stupid woman’ for a woman. See the difference?
Not really, I've heard stupid man said loads of times.
By the same token then. 'Bloody difficult woman' Misogynist? (I can't for the life of me remember who used that phrase 😉 )
This Corbyn and the "stupid woman" business is really serious.
He's denied it and I believe him. The lip readers in Parliament are obviously crappy.
What concerns me is when did they let mind readers in?
By the same token then. ‘Bloody difficult woman’ Misogynist? (I can’t for the life of me remember who used that phrase 😉 )
Ken Clarke (the only Tory I have any time for). Maybe Corbyn should have called her that as the precedent was already set.
Actually it’s worse than that; turnout was 72.2% of which 51.89% voted Leave, meaning only 37.6% of the then registered voting population said they wanted to leave, 34.6% said they wanted to stay and we don’t get to know what the remaining other (presumably apathetic or confused?) 27.8% wanted.
I think the key thing here, is the people who didn't vote, we can presume they wished to stay, as the didn't care enough to want to leave, so it's actually a minority, a very loud vocal minority who are leading us down this path.
Ok, it's rare I pop in and out of this thread but.... Im going to copy paste a post I put on my personal FB page this morning.
To put this into context run/own a village shop with my wife.
The British Independent Retailers Association has today advised all independent retailers to start stockpiling stock and where possible reduce overheads and increase margins in case of a no-deal Brexit.
And it doesn't stop there many of our wholesalers (both large and small wholesalers) are saying that they run on a 4week basis for much of their stock (principally fresh stock), so we may expect shortages.
Now we run a (very) small village shop, the stock is very much on the shelves, if we don't have it on display, it's unlikely that it's in our 2sqm stock room. So stockpiling just isn't an option. The supermarkets were preparing for this situation within days of the referendum, spending millions on new distribution centres and warehouses. Theres an independent warehouse company in Wales that was full last year and has had to double inside to accommodate stockpiles - so I'm sure that there will be food on the shelves after March 29th, but IF it does all go wrong, it won't be on our shelves.
As for a margin increase, one of the reasons our village shop survives is because our margins are competitive - it gives the customer a reason to try us before driving the 15<20min drive to the nearest supermarket. If we increase margins, we loose customers. Increasing margins will drive customers away (literally). We want to keep our customers.
Now the only overhead we can reduce is staff and or wages, ALL others are kept as low as possible and constantly are reviewed - again this is how small business survive. Laura and usually do a 5day week and a 7day week really isn't appealing, so the only way of reducing overheads is to cut weekend hours as these are staffed - not good for the business, our staff, us, our customers or ultimately the country (Less wages means less money back into the economy = worse for the country).
Now multiply this by all the other 1000's of independent retailers across the country, not just the village shops & convenience stores, I'm talking fashion retailers, games shops, jewellery, bike shops etc, you name it. A no-deal situation is a very very bad thing.
OK year or two down the line, the country will be out of Europe and may (or may not) be in a better situation. However many many livelihoods, business and people will be affected by even the smallest disruption at the ports. Let's see how the high street changes, the shop fronts across the country could become a darker place.
Now the good news, we (Laura and I) have a plan, we are diversifying, the shop will continue. We have accepted the outcome of the referendum, but, just like larger buisnesses, a back up plan.
‘Bloody difficult woman’ - (I can’t for the life of me remember who used that phrase 😉 )
Ken Clarke (the only Tory I have any time for). Maybe Corbyn should have called her that as the precedent was already set.
The 😉 was supposed to convey that i know exactly who said it - and while Ken Clarke may have also said it, she said it about herself.
Would be top comedy if he rolled up next time and called her that.....
It's a good post, and you make good points. But as a final one don't believe the hype that campaigning to remain or stop the process is not accepting the initial result.
It happened, it's a matter of record. The government to date has not come up with an acceptable method of leaving and is trying to force people into an unwelcome compromise that satisfies nobody.
That made me smile, Binners, maybe there is space for humour here. 🙂
That made me smile, Binners, maybe there is space for humour here. 🙂
Are we playing the which thread was that for game this Christmas 😉
I think the key thing here, is the people who didn’t vote, we can presume they wished to stay, as the didn’t care enough to want to leave, so it’s actually a minority, a very loud vocal minority who are leading us down this path.
Hmmm, an interesting idea, but I think the whole point of a vote is that there is no real room for "presumption".
Voters are asked a question and they answer, if people don't answer you can't just say "Oh they must already be happy with the status quo" because one of the voting options was essentially to positively confirm that...
If another referendum were to be called, maybe we should just "go Aussie" for this particular one, and have people bloody well made to vote!
And possibly we say this time the winning vote needs to have the backing of at least 51% of all registered voters to be applied?
It's sort of too important to have ~1/3rd of the voting age population silent on the topic... Brexit hasn't actually happened yet, it's already been incredibly divisive and we never actually established if it was the true "Will of the people" by majority...
So it looks like Putin is against a 2nd Referendum...
Nice that he's concerned about undermining our democracy...
Let’s see how the high street changes, the shop fronts across the country could become a darker place.
Except for betting shops... And game they seem to survive everysingle thing
Sobering reading..
Customs
31.
In case of no deal, will goods coming from the UK to the EU/EU to the UK be considered as imports/exports as of 30 March 2019?
As of 30 March 2019, goods which are brought into the customs
territory of the European Union from the United Kingdom or are to be taken out of that territory for transport to the United Kingdom, are subject to customs supervision and may be subject to customs controls in accordance with the Union Customs Code. This implies inter alia that customs formalities apply,
declarations have to be lodged and customs authorities may require guarantees for potential or existing customs debts.
How can May go on about the 'dangers' of a second referendum, when they are preparing troops for no-deal?
How can she go on about 'undermining democracy' when she conducted all her Brexit planning in private so no-one had any oversight, and refused to let anyone debate what the plan should be?
Because she's a stupid woman.
Because she’s a stupid woman.
I hope you just mumbled that under your breath.
I've lost count of teh times I've seen Donald Trump described as a "dangerous man". Surely that's sexist too. Donald is dangerous man and TM is stupid woman, are we no longer allowed to state facts without being accused of sexism?
Anyhow as much as I detest Corbyn I believe he said "stupid people", it's very much in people's language now as it's been popularised by Trump.
She is a woman who is behaving very stupidly, it's not sexist.
Speaking of stupid people
Every now & again I like to have a dip into Daniel Hannans predictions of what brexit will look like in the future...
https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
How did he know that we'd nail all the trade talks in 12mths ? Spooky ! 😂😂
Every now & again I like to have a dip into Daniel Hannans predictions of what brexit will look like in the future…
Jesus wept!
As we left the EU, we straightened our backs, looked about us, and realised that we were still a nation to be reckoned with: the world’s fifth economy and fourth military power, one of five members on the UN Security Council and a leading member of the G7 and the Commonwealth
But we're already those things he listed, quite possibly due to being part of the EU.
The guy's absolute scum and will never be forgiven for his lies and deceit
To lighten the mood . was sent this earlier by our it guys and made me chuckle
Q: With Britain leaving the EU how much space will be created on the EU Servers
A: Exactly 1GB
42% of gilet jaune vote Le Pen and a lot of the rest extreme left.
What percentage of the electorate are gilet jaune?
What percentage of the electorate are gilet jaune?
I doubt it is very much different from here - a numerically insignificant shouty mob with a disproportionate shouty volume and a disproportionate amount of airtime as and when it suits the media.
Exactly 1GB
Actual LOL 😂
I’m starting to quite like james O’brien
A rare outspoken voice of sanity in the media. Not so keen on his interview style but totally dig his monologues.
A tiny proportion of the French population are out in their gilets, a few more have them on the dashboards (still very small minority around here). But a lot of people are sympathetic to their cause. I've heard around 70% quoted on TV and radio (Europe 1 and local TV). There's a general feeling that the poor are being heavily taxed while the super rich and big corporates pay no tax at all in France. I'm in the 70% . Macron either addresses the problem or Le Pen and Mélenchon gain votes.
On the corporates he's going to have to go it alone and risk a fight with the EU. That's where it could get interesting as Ireland, UK, Malta, luxembourg are currently enabling the tax optimisation of big corporates and will resist change. But change has to come if the EU is to survive the populist drives against the EU in many countries.
I’m starting to quite like james O’brien
I’m continuing to quite like Anna Soubry.
I'm finding myself quite liking Rory Stewart, nice lad for a Tory. Intelligent to boot, I like the way you can see his cogs whirring when questioned like my Maths professor on my evening course - unlike a lot of the other political drones.
I can't say that I'm surprised that a Cambridge professor didn't know the difference between the single market and the customs union though.
People need to start listening to intelligent establishment types like Rory again.
That LBC interview ^^^ is about the only Brexit debate I’ve heard where 2 people actually bothered to listen to each other and discuss rather than parroting sound bites at each other. More of that please.
At LAST, a Brexit discussion instead of a Brexit shout in yer face. I like James - I also like Rory.
J O'B is a decent broadcaster. But he's a bit too tough sometimes on his callers.
His centrist (holier than thou) attitude towards his 'facts' gets a bit grating. That said he's a good listen. I've learned a lot from him.
According to the Grauniad polling is now showing clear support for remain
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote
I wonder why they are so adamant about a second vote?
anyone been back to the start of this thread. Interesting reading with hindsight.
Yes I've checked back on a few posts johnba
A shame that a lot of the Brexiteers predicting sunlit uplands have legged it.
According to the Grauniad polling is now showing clear support for remain
A bit strange that the article doesn't cover a no deal brexit, just May's deal vs remain.
Edit: That's because the opinion poll doesn't cover no deal brexit. Seems a waste of time then.
Agree with the above regarding J O’B. Don’t necessarily agree with all he says but he always has a well defined point.
Also thought RS came across well again. I dislike most Tories but he is always worth a listen. A sensible discussion of which we need much more of.
BBC are just reporting that the government has removed the word ‘unlikely’ from all documents referring to no deal.
So their previous instructions to business beginning “in the unlikely event of a no deal Brexit....” now just refer to “in the event of a no deal Brexit...”
Well that’s confidence-inspiring, isn’t it?
Is this the point we're at now, so desperate for somebody to appear vaguely sensible that Tory ladder-climbers like him, happy to lie in a bid to convince, are the good guys?
Yep, that Rory Stewart.
Is that the best you’ve got, ninfan?
It's rather telling in our negotiations with Ireland over the border the normally junior country was able to tell us to do one with the backing of their club, for probably the first time in our shared history.
This more than anything else tells me our elected representatives need to show some statesmanship and, if need be, tell the children they can't have the sweeties on show at the WTC (world trade checkout). Time for the country's best interests to be served not their chances of re-election.
The same Rory Stewart that made up that 80%figure? I can’t believe a word of his after that
Edit
Thanks to the invisible page bug on this site I didn’t know my point was already mentioned above
Also thought RS came across well again. I dislike most Tories but he is always worth a listen.
Hardly - JOB gave him a list of ministers' lying and incompetence and he countered that anyway some remainers on Twitter had said rude things. He may speak quietly but he is still a nutter.
BBC are just reporting that the government has removed the word ‘unlikely’ from all documents referring to no deal.
So their previous instructions to business beginning “in the unlikely event of a no deal Brexit….” now just refer to “in the event of a no deal Brexit…”
Well that’s confidence-inspiring, isn’t it?
It is just a stunt to make May's deal look like the least worst option by upping the ante on No Deal. It will make a good TV drama in a few years.
If no deal becomes the only option in the new year, then I can see an extension or postponement of A50 happening. There is not enough time for the country to properly prepare for no deal before 29th March. For the Government to push ahead with the March leave date with no deal would be incredibly reckless and I doubt Parliament would allow it
But it will also help people realise No Deal really is not a good idea (for when May's deal gets rejected in January)
Not disputing that RS is a typical Tory but just think that in the face of the usual red faced shouting or absolute whoopers being presented as fact what we need is more sensible discussions, like the one these two had.
This, on current public opinion, is both unsurprising, but also a reminder about how hard it will be to get a referendum (or A50 delay/cancel), never mind win one, and why…
https://twitter.com/labour4eu/status/1075843296742858753?s=21
For the Government to push ahead with the March leave date with no deal would be incredibly reckless and I doubt Parliament would allow it
What makes you think the government wouldn't allow a "reckless" move in March, considering how most people who are up for that vote Conservative? And how do you think anyone else will stop them, if it goes to the wire?
"Look at this mess they've made, after 2 years of whipping to support them, we did make lots of noise in the final hour, but we couldn't stop them, it was too late. Vote for us."
Is this the point we’re at now, so desperate for somebody to appear vaguely sensible that Tory ladder-climbers like him, happy to lie in a bid to convince, are the good guys?
Which he immediately retracted? How often do politicians do that? I'm willing to let him slide on that.
I don't agree with DrJ either, he doesn't seem like a nutter. Not half as deranged as either Rees ****-face Mogg or Corbyn are. His points were sensible, even if you disagree.
He strikes me as a civilized old school one nation Tory, I can cope with people like him and Ken Clarke acting as the opposition.
Which he immediately retracted
That's what I took from it when I heard it as well… I was thinking "what an idiot" and then he basically said "I'm being an idiot" and backed out, rather than doubling down. I think he was going down the "80% of voters voted for a party promising to get out of … blah blah … but protect … blah blah … which what is this deal does", but thought "this is nonsense, forgot it" rather than do all that awful disingenuous logical gymnastics. I found that refreshing.
One thing I have noticed is on FaceBook. There's quite a few trolls coming on to Scottish pages and crowing how they are going to get rid of whingeing subsidy junkies and have an independent England.
I think they are surprised at our level of support for them. 🙂
Can we have Rory Stewart, Keir Starmer, Ken Clarke, James O'Brien and Danny Dyer (to get the plebs on side) leading a unity government? Pretty please. I've had enough now, it's just not funny anymore.
Dyer can be monarch, he does after all have a distant claim, and could deliver the policies via the King's speech in a tone we can both understand and have a laugh along with.
Ah yes, very true kelvin. We haven't had a King Daniel yet have we?
It’s rather telling in our negotiations with Ireland over the border the normally junior country was able to tell us to do one with the backing of their club, for probably the first time in our shared history.
See, this just stinks of English nationalism and jingoism. We're English, everyone should bow down at our feet because we're so superior.
We haven't had any negotiations with Ireland... we've negotiated with the EU (of which Ireland is a remaining member)
What makes you think the government wouldn’t allow a “reckless” move in March, considering how most people who are up for that vote Conservative? And how do you think anyone else will stop them, if it goes to the wire?
A vote of no confidence in the Government could be used to stop it, potentially easily winnable by the opposition (i.e all other parties) as the Conservatives are minority Government (but I can also see those within Government voting for the motion too!). This would be a change in UK politics. The EU have cited that as a reason to look at extending the A50 date. An alternative would be a unilateral revocation of A50, which has been confirmed as possible by the ECJ. That could be the "going to the wire" option.
I don't believe there is anywhere near a majority supporting no deal in Parliament or the Government. It just won't be allowed to happen.
May is attempting to shutdown the other options so it's just her deal or no deal. Ultimately I think she will fail in this endeavour, tripped up by her own inflexibility and bloody-mindedness.
The leave campaign is still spreading lies & mis-information...
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1076079262556409856
I don't understand why "Leave" are arguing that there won't be a hard border as though it's a positive thing. Surely without one it's an easy way for migrants/refugees to sneak into the UK, which is typically one of their main bug-bears...
dmorts
A vote of no confidence in the Government could be used to stop it, potentially easily winnable by the opposition (i.e all other parties) as the Conservatives are minority
You think the DUP are part of the opposition?
You think the DUP are part of the opposition?
The current Government is a minority as it's not a formal coalition, therefore the DUP can be the opposition. However even if the DUP stayed on the Government's side, there would only need to be a handful of Conservatives backing the vote of no confidence for it to pass. I think that if we're in a dire situation heading completely unprepared for a no deal leave then some Conservatives would vote against the Government. The party is hardly united as it is now. Imagine how those existing cracks would be opened up more by no deal.
See, this just stinks of English nationalism and jingoism. We’re English, everyone should bow down at our feet because we’re so superior.
I heard a few days ago, a Conservative MP (can’t remember which one) opining that “the Irish should know their place”... Says it all, really.
Also, this year’s “Alternative Christmas Message” -
Geeeeeeeeeeza!
You think the DUP are part of the opposition?
Well they are against pretty much everything.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu
No deal it is then...
We might not have yellow gilets, but have heard a few suggestions that one way to turn the debate might be a general strike. Anyone got the guts for that and would it have any legs (assuming - perhaps unfairly - that a big chunk of leave voters might already be retired)?
Maybe, just maybe, Magic Grandpa ain't so magic after all...
It's almost as if he's always been a Leaver. Whodathunkit?
Anyone who's surprised by that hasn't been paying attention. It's labour policy, which is why I couldn't vote labour even if we had an election.
Maybe, just maybe, Magic Grandpa ain’t so magic after all…
It’s almost as if he’s always been a Leaver. Whodathunkit?
Your razor sharp insight is as ever, rare, but welcome. Well done!
What a depressing read. But it's alright… if May gets her deal, which some MPs fear might trap us in a customs union without any say over trade deals, changed so that we're definitely going to be trapped in a customs union without any say over trade deals, Corbyn will be happy with it. Labour MPs, members, supports and voters can just lump it. Three cheers for the absolute boy!
Can anyone answer this? Norway plus or Canada plus plus have been mooted as options, but no one mentions Swizterland. They're not in the EU, EEA or customs union but have a free trade deal with the EU. So why isn't every Brexiter saying "we want to be like Switzerland"??
Anyone who’s surprised by that hasn’t been paying attention. It’s labour policy, which is why I couldn’t vote labour even if we had an election.
Labour have always stated they respect the referendum result, have you all not heard that for the last two years? However, the 6 tests make it pretty much impossible as would never get a deal that passes them so that actually tells you they won't be leaving at all.
Again, you all seem to be missing the difficult game that has to be played to not be seen as "enemy of the people", not going against half you voters etc,.
we want to be like Switzerland”??
Schengen.
a general strike. Anyone got the guts for that
Yes. It's that or burn Westminster to the ground at this point. The absolute state of our politicians at the moment.
Kerley, the six tests apply to Tory brexit, they don't apply to Labour's own brexit.
Again, you all seem to be missing the difficult game that has to be played to not be seen as “enemy of the people”, not going against half you voters etc,.
Yep.
And what's more there needs to be a better Government in place to deal with all the fall-out from Brexit.
Not forgetting all the other issues in the World too.