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So with 3 months left to the cliff edge, they are going to eff-off for 2 weeks break???
Which she needs to convince about 350 MP’s it’s a good deal – we know it’s not the only option too
That's what I meant, the options now are basically TM's deal or revoke A50 I reckon, with no deal being technically available but nobody (ie the majority of MPs) wants that. That leaves them with TM's deal or revoke A50, nobody's (majority of MPs) going to vote for the deal because it's worse than staying in the EU so when they're ultimately left with a technical-but-very-unlikely (because the loons can GTF now) no deal or revoke A50, once it's put to a commons vote (in the country's best interest or however they'll word it), they'll 'reluctantly' vote to revoke A50.
Democratic process served, no second referendum, democracy lives to fight another day 🙂 The worst that'll happen is a few gammons explode/tut into their Daily Mails/phone Five Live. Best case is the loons leave to UKIP or A N Other splinter party, crippling the tories for a few years 😀
The only option left will be to revoke. I sadly only got 5/1 on it but put some money on nonetheless.
Democratic process served, no second referendum
Why isn't 2nd ref an option? Likely that the EU would let us delay long enough to have another vote, I reckon.
Why isn’t 2nd ref an option? Likely that the EU would let us delay long enough to have another vote, I reckon.
Because there won't [i]need[/i] to be a second ref. MPs won't vote for TM's deal in January so there'll be nothing to put to a second ref/people's vote. There'll be some kind of emergency vote in parliament between no deal and revoking A50 (because that's all that'll be left) and the majority of MPs are pro-EU so the vote will go in favour of revoking A50. Honestly, I just typed all of that out, did you not read my post? 😉
Isn't it about time Britain stopped calling itself a democracy? Maybe a mediocracy would be a better name.
I believe that it is technically a constitutional monarchy rather than a democracy. I see your point though.
Just in case you weren't terrified enough...
Those "World Trade Deals" the likes of Mogg and Johnson bang on about are nothing of the sort (obviously) but it's probably worse than you could imagine.
https://www.explaintrade.com/blogs/2018/12/11/world-trade-deal
Nobody in the British parliament has the balls to even think about revoking article 50 without a GE or second referendum. That's just wishful thinking.
May's deal is the least worst alternative option to everyone in parliament apart from the DUP loons, (who can probably be bought off with another billion quid).
So leaving the vote on May's deal as late as possible will increase its chances of going through. With no proper alternative all the MPS will be in a bit of a panic and simply voting it through will be the safest thing to do for their own careers.
With no proper alternative all the MPS will be in a bit of a panic and simply voting it through will be the safest thing to do for their own careers.
Problem is many of them are in remain areas, many believe brexit can't be delivered. I still think it will be very very hard to pass mays deal in any form even with obvious bribes to the DUP.
Unicorns are evaporating, let's see who the anger is directed at.
and because it's too good to miss
The morning after the night before at ERG HQ
Kakistocracy springs to mind.
Nobody in the British parliament has the balls to even think about revoking article 50 without a GE or second referendum. That’s just wishful thinking.
It is wishful thinking on my part, you're right, but it's possible. If it's done en masse, with it being suggested by committee or something, you know, and everyone goes along with it all well-if-I-absolutely-must, twisted-my-arm, hand-wringing and for-the-good-of-the-economy-and-jobs-blah-blah, Yes Prime Minister, [i]reluctantly[/i] and that, it's a possibility. No-one's to blame, TM has 'tried her best' to get a deal through, hands were tied, safeguarding jobs etc...
koldun
Isn’t it about time Britain stopped calling itself a democracy?
The arch Tory "rivers of blood" Enoch Powell used to correct people who called the UK a democracy.
Those “World Trade Deals” the likes of Mogg and Johnson bang on about are nothing of the sort (obviously) but it’s probably worse than you could imagine.
Really? Interesting article from Marcus Gibson here
Ah BrexieGammonCentral....
About the author
Marcus Gibson was for a number of years a journalist and correspondent for BBC Radio 4, The European and later the Financial Times and soon became aware of the strongly anti-UK attitudes prevalent in Brussels and much of the EU. In 2003 he started Gibson Index Ltd, a research house based in Mayfair that catalogues the tens of thousands of highly successful SMEs, entrepreneurs and pioneering innovation trends across the UK.
and then starts with a classic bit of balance
A true economic miracle is happening. An extraordinary leap in the UK’s global export trade has occurred – a complete reverse of the ‘Doomsday’ predictions of the Treasury, Bank of England and Department for Business in London both before after the Brexit vote.
Followed up by plenty of could, should, retaliate etc. 2/10?
Interesting article from Marcus Gibson here
Oh my! It's getting harder and harder to spot satire these days.
(We haven't left yet, still have a home market that includes 30+ countries, and new trade deals/arrangement signed jointly with rEU countries are increasing our access to RoW markets all the time.)
This bit about Japanese car manufacturers is priceless…
Any anti-Japanese actions by the French…
The EU have just signed an agreement giving the Japanese greater access to the EU market. The relationship between Nissan and Renault (and Mitsubishi) is well known, even to Brexit fans. The man is a tool.
Thank you willard & epicyclo, i stand (ok, sit) corrected.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte says this evening's Brexit discussions will aim to provide "clarifications", to "demystify" the controversial backstop provision for Northern Ireland.
"It will be impossible to break open the negotiated withdrawal agreement, because of the red lines that you in the UK drew. Given all those red lines, this is the only deal possible," he tells reporters in Brussels.
"We have to seek clarifications, particularly on the backstop… I can assure you there is nobody in their right mind in the EU who wants to trigger the backstop."
He names the British "red lines" as: no border in the Irish Sea; no membership of the EU customs union and no free movement of people.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-46533245
Plane speaking time
Who was it? Which years? What salary?
Robert Broadhurst, from at least 2010 but probably earlier, no idea but based on IPSA report presumably absorbed the subscription monies.
The only formal structure appears to be the subscribers, there is in addition a more informal group of interested parties who are part of the "Communications Group" which presumably includes emailings, Whatsapp etc. The ERG don't appear to protect their research in the same way as the other groups.
The EU must recognise that the Conservatives need the support of the DUP and move over the issue of the backstop, pro-Brexit Tory MP Nigel Evans says.
He says the government cannot rely on support from Labour to get a Brexit deal through Parliament.
“If that happened and it still upset the DUP, all that means is they get some treaty over the line, but we can’t govern for the next three years," he says.
“The reality for the EU is they have got to understand the political complications."
He adds that the EU "don't want to move" but the "ball is in their court".
I must stop reading the delusions of the brexiters.... (BBC Live reporting)
The EU must compromise because the DUP are arseholes, and the PM managed to give away her majority. though it is good for them to be able to scapegoat the DUP in this way
Curiously, none of this has been spotted by any of the UK’s headline media – the BBC, Sky News or the FT
It has, I knew exports were up due to falling £. But he fails to mention that we haven't yet lost our trade deals and seen all the associated tariffs.
I'd also as a baseline like to see what the EU balance of trade with these RoW countries is. How much of the growth is mirrored by the EU (maybe even, because it's an EU-RoW deal?)
Also if our future trade deals depend on our own trade agreements rather than the EU's, they are likely to be worse. We will be competing against the EU now.
Guys that level of analysis is far too deep for Brexit Central!!
sorry, my mistake.
THEY NEED US MORE THAN WE NEED THEM!!
AND WE DON'T EVEN NEED THEM, NOW WE'VE GOT A DEAL WITH KAZAKHSTAN!!
From a friend on Facebook. He's realtively well connected politically through TV work and reporting, he does know what he's talking about:
Theresa May had been relaxed about "No Deal" until she read the terrifying detail in the official papers. That's why "No deal is better than a bad deal" suddenly changed to "This is the ONLY deal". She now won't let "no deal" happen because she doesn't want to be remembered as the PM who ushered in economic chaos while ignoring the official advice.
The EU won't renegotiate the deal, as anything weaker risks the Irish border, and would make a mockery of the whole point of the EU. BUT if the deal isn't renegotiated, Team Rees-Mogg and the DUP will go nuclear and chuck it out.
So ... stalemate. Unless...
The only obvious route out of this mess is some kind of new, specific mandate to do something. Anything. That means either another referendum or an election.
Spoiler: Theresa May doesn't have a great record in elections, so it won't be that.
Note that TM has been asked repeatedly to rule out a second referendum, but all she has said is "that would be the wrong thing to do". That gives her enough wriggle room to say, after Christmas "sorry, I tried my best but we now need new specific instructions from you, the voters." She will move in Parliament for a new referendum with the choice between her deal or no deal.
A majority of MPs in Parliament have remain sympathies and will amend the bill to include a "Remain" option on the ballot.
Article 50 will be suspended for a few of months while we sort this out, and a referendum will be held with a two stage question...
1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
2) If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, should it leave under the terms negotiated in 2018, or without a specific trade deal.
And then we go to the Winchester, have a nice cold pint, and wait for this all to blow over.
That T M clip
She was pretty accurate in the likely terms we would be able to secure.
And on a human level, she's aged about 22 years in the last 2. Poor cow. I'm not a fan, but this mythical sense of duty that keeps her going, ain't doing her any favours long term.
What terrifies me though is the entrenched position that everyone is now in. A couple of (former) friends on Facebook have been replying to any and all EU related posts with "just leave" and "we can just tell them to **** off" and other similarly unhelpful comments.
Correct me if I'm worng here but if "we can just leave" was so simple, we'd have just left by now. The fact that 2 years on we still have no idea of how to leave kind of indicates that "just leaving" might not actually be possible.
But in any future referendum, they'll still be voting leave - in spite of seeing all the catastrophic news about it.
Crazy-Legs
I do hope so.
"We outmaneuvered you, you lost, get over it"
I’m not a fan, but this mythical sense of duty that keeps her going, ain’t doing her any favours long term.
Or the rest of us, tbh. Her supposed stoicism has actually stifled proper debate which is partly why we are in such a mess.
Theresa May had been relaxed about “No Deal” until she read the terrifying detail in the official papers. That’s why “No deal is better than a bad deal” suddenly changed to “This is the ONLY deal”. She now won’t let “no deal” happen because she doesn’t want to be remembered as the PM who ushered in economic chaos while ignoring the official advice.
If that is true then she is a bigger idiot than I thought.
Correct me if I’m worng here but if “we can just leave” was so simple, we’d have just left by now. The fact that 2 years on we still have no idea of how to leave kind of indicates that “just leaving” might not actually be possible.
But in any future referendum, they’ll still be voting leave – in spite of seeing all the catastrophic news about it.
crazy-legs is spot-on
That's assuming leave is on the ballot paper...
1) Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?
We've done that.
2) If the United Kingdom leaves the EU, should it leave under the terms negotiated in 2018, or without a specific trade deal.
This would be an utter nonsense.
Any referendum that doesn't pit a "preferred" leave option against EU membership, just gets us to the same place… leaving the EU in a manner that more than half the population thinks is worse than not leaving.
Can nicola sturgeon trigger a vote of no confidence
Article 50 will be suspended for a few of months while we sort this out, and a referendum will be held with a two stage question
But what if stupid people are allowed to vote again…
From what I've heard they won't get the time to debate it, only Labour will get that as the opposition, but the one thing about these is you really get one shot so it needs to work.
Can nicola sturgeon trigger a vote of no confidence
Yes - if you mean get SNP generally- but no point as Labour would abstain and wait for their own vote
SNP are politicing - if Corbyn initiated vote doesn't work then it's a stick beat him with for not doing it sooner when they asked
Can nicola sturgeon trigger a vote of no confidence
No. She isn't an MP.
It's difficult for anyone other than the official opposition to do it for technical reasons (in short, only the official opposition get regular time to debate their own motions). Not completely impossible for someone else to do it but rumour has it Labour are trying to sound out DUP to see if/when they will commit to it.
Nice to watch Qt and see Caroline Lucas stepping up to be leader of the opposition as the useless * who’s meant to be doing the job can’t really be arsed
And David Davis? How he’s got the bare-faced front to be pontificating on the subject given his half-arsed contribution to this utter shambles! FFS!!
Maybe we could put him against a wall while we all throw our shoes at the *?
Vote Leave 'econonist' &. general right-wing slimeball, really plumbing the depths here...
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/1073200950272294912?s=19
Stay classy
really plumbing the depths here
WTF? Even if you did believe it how unaware would you need to be to think it would be a good idea to share such a moronic idea?
Looking at some of the other rubbish he has written though I guess self awareness is not one of his natural qualities.
A few things I don’t understand with the current scenario, if we by some means we remain, how would we stand within the EU, how would we confront any future issues we may have with the EU, as we would be in a weaker position than what we were pre referendum, as it’s not like we would decide to leave again right.? Their attitude could well be ‘shut it Britain, just be glad we let you stay’..
Also granting the UK a good deal would be suicidal for the EU surely, as if we leave and do well out of it, then that will set a precedent for other EU members and in turn spell the end of the EU..?
Additionally as I see it the UK has everything to lose; but what has the EU to lose should negotiations break down and a no deal scenario occur, with that in mind TM is not negotiating but making a plea to the EU, their leverage is no deal and various other consequences, what’s our leverage?
Just a few thoughts..
The thing about remaining is, it leaves us in exactly the same position we're in now, which is why the majority of people didn't want to leave.
Mme May, our answer is.....Non!
Do parliament have to vote for no deal crash out? Or will it just happen at end of march? Parliament need to have a vote dont they but is that just on the "deal"? Whats the mechanism going forward on this mess? Do Boris and his chums win if we just keep delaying?
Do parliament have to vote for no deal crash out?
Don't think they have to vote but they will as they have to decide whether to go with No Deal as the option. Luckily we have May as leader and she didn't get replace with someone less likely to put forward a vote.
The rEU saw what happened in the UK parliament, and toughened up the language around the back stop for Ireland… we don't look very trustworthy as regards the GFA right now…
https://twitter.com/mehreenkhn/status/1073351707730608129?s=21
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073355214340743168?s=21
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1073357332485148673?s=21
I keep hearing the first verse of the boxer rattling around my head
I am just a poor boy
Though my story's seldom told
I have squandered my resistance
For a pocket full of mumbles, such are promises
All lies and jests
Still a man hears what he wants to hear
And disregards the rest
Also granting the UK a good deal would be suicidal for the EU surely, as if we leave and do well out of it, then that will set a precedent for other EU members and in turn spell the end of the EU..?
First up you need to look at this from the non UK/EU perspective. The. UK deal sets up a new class of deals with the eu for other countries to look at. This is not about punishment or warnings but about maintaining what they have, their principles and the rules they have.
Do parliament have to vote for no deal crash out?
No. It will happen by default as the date is legislated. Given the sheer incompetence of our government and parliament, it looks more and more like the likely outcome.
Am I missing something?
This whole scenario sounds like a brilliant opportunity for the pro EU party, the LibDems.
I don't hear them yelling from the rooftops. Why?
They could be shouting as loud as they can, somebody needs to listen or more correctly broadcast them. By the time we have done remain con, leave con, rabid leave con, leave lab, remain lab who us still listening.
I can imagine the Brexshitters are going mental at the EU stance.
When actually they have created this whole mess.
Am I missing something?
This whole scenario sounds like a brilliant opportunity for the pro EU party, the LibDems.
I don’t hear them yelling from the rooftops. Why?
Who controls the media? Where would they get access to a platform.
the Brexit means Brexit is understandable when you realize the Maybot is more an "expert system" of fixed responses than actual AI
EU 27 have finally lost patience with this shitshow of a government. And who can blame them?
the Brexit means Brexit is understandable when you realize the Maybot is more an “expert system” of fixed responses than actual AI
As someone almost once said, "I think we've had quite enough of expert (systems)"
Who controls the media? Where would they get access to a platform.
Well if Brexiters are to be beloved a metropolitan elite of remainers who want to oppress debate.
Don’t think they have to vote but they will as they have to decide whether to go with No Deal as the option.
They don't have to "go with No Deal". No Deal is what will currently happen if May's deal continues to be unacceptable to the House. Unless A50 is rescinded.
how much are we going to charge EU nationals for their VISA exemptions?
Unless A50 is rescinded
Except doing that is political suicide for whichever party does it. So the only option is to share the blame and get a cross party agreement that "we don't like the deal on offer, don't want no deal and don;t have time to renegotiate so let's have a rethink" but who the hell has the political stature and acumen to broker that? Oh and then you'll get a whole bunch of people who are hacked off that "politicians don't listen to the people" and we end up with some populist numpty in charge. Though right now I'm not sure that'd be worse than the status quo.
I keep hearing the first verse of the boxer rattling around my head
One of my favourite songs - and the lyrics can be applied in lots of ways. I love the 'hidden verse' that they only sang occasionally live (and it could be thought of as apt here as well):
Now the years are rolling by me
They are rockin' evenly
I am older than I once was
And younger than I'll be, that's not unusual
No it isn't strange
After changes upon changes
We are more or less the same
After changes we are more or less the same
how much are we going to charge EU nationals for their VISA exemptions?
A bit like asking what screws we are going to use on our space ships from our new space port that one....
Additionally as I see it the UK has everything to lose; but what has the EU to lose should negotiations break down and a no deal scenario occur, with that in mind TM is not negotiating but making a plea to the EU, their leverage is no deal and various other consequences, what’s our leverage?
Listen to the leave side - they have more to lose than us.
Like you I have no idea what that might be, they've always held all the cards, it's like playing poker where you only have a single card, & that card is a 2.
I can imagine the Brexshitters are going mental at the EU stance.
When actually they have created this whole mess.
No this is great for them. The more things get tied in knots, the more likely it is we crash out in March. ERG wet dream.
Problem is, everyone is running down the clock as a tactic. As the threat of no deal gets ever closer, the chances are May's Withdrawal Agreement gets voted through (10 years of negotiations to follow) to avoid it.
We are in the shit at this point.
how much are we going to charge EU nationals for their VISA exemptions?
For holidays? Hopefully just a reasonable admin fee. For work visas…? I expect that will end up being an expensive nightmare for all involved… deliberately. The Home Office has recent form.
For work visas…? I expect that will end up being an expensive nightmare for all involved… deliberately. The Home Office has recent form.
Which then means, why bother with the UK as an operational base.
Just heard that last night in the EU negotiations that angela merkel interrupted may's speech on a number of occasions to ask "just what is it you want?".
Theresa may, the conservatives, brexiteers are all a ****ing laughing stock
Theresa may, the conservatives, brexiteers are all a * laughing stock
And if i didn't have time and money invested in a life in the UK i would be seriously inclined to say f it and start looking for a new job on the continent. (i am UK/Irish dual so not an issue before anyone says anything)