I note the extremely illiberal tone of the pro-Conservative media of late. The alarm bells really started to sound when the Daily Heil appeared to endorse Le Pen on their front page.
There seems to be a growing backlash against the illiberal media - organisations like Stop Funding Hate are making headway in ensuring that advertisers are aware of the negative publicity resulting from associating their brand to the far-right press. Breitbart has already seen advertisers leave in droves.
The Daily Express's headline last week which insinuated that the EU was to blame for Grenfell Tower was quite shocking, but I honestly don't think that many people were fooled.
and negotiations begin in earnest as the two Assange brothers finally get down to business
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I'm predicting a technical knockout towards the end of the first round.
I'm predicting that the current "It is fine, of course our Euro-Buddies will give us the deal we want" message will evaporate within a couple of months.
At which point the govt. is faced with telling us the truth of the real costs of brexit, in so doing so committing a final act of political suicide.
Or they could do a smile and wave as long as they can and pretend that a Euro30bn exit fee, crappy trade deal, no collaboration on customs, education, food etc is 'all good', until in 2019 we discover the deal is in fact the Emperors New clothes....
You started this thread matt, your OP was:
I am torn between both.Part of me thinks more local decisions and less centralised is a Good Thing.
But part of me thinks it is working OK, and would it rock the boat lots to leave?
.
So where are you on the whole thing now?
[Sorry, this is not a "picking-on-you-by-finding-a-quote-from-ages-ago" post, just curious as to whether you're still torn?]
is there odds on what the divorce bill will be?
I cant see this going well tbh
May & davis have already pissed away 2 months out of the 20 or so we have to negotiate with their batshit election
assuming we get a 50bn divorce bill (+/-)
[url= https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/590488/PU2027_EU_finances_2016_print_final.pdf ]and we pay in 8bn or so a yr to the EU[/url]
thatll 2025 before we break even
[url= https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/publications/comms/r116.pdf ]after that even the softest of brexits costing 20bn a year[/url]
that means that we have to make up an [b]extra[/b] 6bn a year from our new global trade nirvana just to break even
https://www.ft.com/content/db2716aa-5026-11e7-a1f2-db19572361bb
Doesn't matter how much we are worse off, we will be in total control of those losses.
(and we will have WAY less foreigners)
[quote=kerley ]Doesn't matter how much we are worse off, we will be in total control of those losses.
(and we will have WAY less foreigners)
poe's law. i really cant tell if your serious or taking the piss.
So, "no deal is better than a bad deal". Is that profound statement true for everything?
e.g.
- No beer is better than bad beer.
- No breakfast is better than a bad breakfast
- No Brexit is better than a bad Brexit
- No PM is better than a bad PM.
So where are you on the whole thing now?
Quite quickly through the campaign I realised that we needed the stability and favour that being part of Europe brought us - that getting on with people and countries was important. I'm a firm pro-european now, and voted 'remain'.
we will be in total control of those losses.
No. No we won't.
At what point in the proceedings will Barnier get fed up with Davis's false joviiality and lamp him one?
unwise council estate lad who was in the SAS *
* technically the reservist/TA SAS but i bet he is pretty tough
Maybe so, but it doesn't make his silly giggling any less irritating.
So how long before we understand just how tiny this planet is, how much impact on a global level individual countries have and therefore how idiotic the idea of "country" actually is?
Where do the 50bn come from quoted on this thread. I've watched German news and the figure quoted was up to 100bn, confirmed by the Sud Deutsche Zeitung:
" die finanziellen Verpflichtungen Großbritanniens gegenüber der EU, die bis zu 100 Milliarden Euro betragen könnten"
Where do the 50bn come from quoted on this thread. I've watched German news and the figure quoted was up to 100bn, confirmed by the Sud Deutsche Zeitung:
I have seen various numbers from £50Bn to €100Bn, I guess the final number will be somewhere in the middle, probably towards the top end because of the capabilities of the UKs crack negotiators.
They will probably negotiate a severance figure of €200Bn and claim it as a win. Big number better than little number, who needs experts.
Edukator all the figures are just made up fantasies, mainky for gullible members of the European public who are being lead to believe that tye UK's massive net £10bn payment intontye EU budget won't be missed.
What Davies and the UK team did is ask the EU what LEGAL basis they have for the request, nothing about figures. The EU cannot answer. We already said we will pay what is LEGALLY due. We know what that number is. It is 2 years of budget contributions net of rebates. Post A50 payments are guillotined, ie cut off. The EU drafted it that way as they wanted to ensure net recipients got no more money. Cuts both ways. We don't even owe money for pensions of UK citizens past amd present who are EU employees.
We owe approx £20bn whilst we are members and nothing afterwards. We already said we will make up EU grants / funding after April 2019 [b]directly[/b] to UK entities receiving them.
Therafter we have the EU asset discussion and what money we are owed. As I said I'd be happy to get back our £6bn (?) EIB capital and see the bank gone from the UK. I want nothing at all to do with it.
Where do the 50bn come from quoted on this thread.
That was me being hopelessly optimistic . 100bn is what v is read too but....
I'm sure there is a bit of bluff on both sides re the final figure, so I'm sure it could be negotiated down,
Even bumbling Davis must have some be talents
That said it was only a month ago he was assuring us that we couldn't possibly be following the EU's timetable of agreeing an exit bill first- he actually said it'd be 'row of summer'
https://www.ft.com/content/01396086-38ae-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
Funnily enough he slunk in with his tail between his legs and meekly agreed to do as the EU told him and do the exit bill 1st and trade talks later.
The Brexies so deluded they probably won't see this early aquiescenc as a portent of what's to come....
oh come on Kimbers , it took Barnier at least a few hours to have DD change his mind . 😆
. We already said we will make up EU grants / funding after April 2019 directly to UK entities receiving them.
Jambafudge alert!!!!
They said funding will be paid [b]until[/b] 2020
After that it's the slippery slope for UK research,
if it were to be 100bn exit bill that'd be beyond 2030 before we break even and can start making up the losses to science funding!
The possible collaborative loss could be the real problem, like the NHS, we've already seen a drop in EU applicants and researchers heading back to the EU
Little Britain here we come ! 🙁
I want nothing at all to do with it.
You are Nigel Farage & I claim my half a crown.
@Kimbers I recall they said until the end of the projects. You are correct to say the EU budget cycle ends in 2020 but my understanding is some projects go longer. To be honest much of it is as clear as mud a bit like the fact there are in the EU's opinion something like 30 different ways to calculate "net budget contribution". Its a total mess.
I think also that a big chunk of this €100bn number is loan guaranties and not acutal cash. However no one is really sure as its just made up figures. There is no contract / budget you can point to to get these numbers.
I claim my half a crown
Excellent 🙂
Joking aside the EIB is a huge potential liability wrt the eurozone. We should take our £6bn capital back and use that to support directly the UK projects (like crossrail) that have EIB loans. £6bn capital is very roughly about £75bn in loans probably more
Which is why the EU will demand a minimum of 50bn as that would mean no other country has to change their planned contributions in the next cycle, just because we've decided to throw a toddler tantrum and strop off..
As for the EIB they've invested billions in the UK projects (5.5bn in 2016) -though you jambafacted previously they didn't help us at all, that's another source of investment the UK gov will have to make up until we've paid off or divorce bill
Essentially all this 'populist' discontent is a kickback against austerity, Brexit commits us to another 6-12 years of that hurting the poorest hardest, just so egoists like rees-mogg, dacre, gove etc can say they've 'taken back control'
Interesting perspective on the state of UK politics in general from our Irish friends:
Well the. Irishtimes agrees with my assessment, I'm assuming that isn't a Murdoch publication!
I think also that a big chunk of this €100bn number is loan guaranties and not acutal cash. However no one is really sure as its just made up figures. There is no contract / budget you can point to to get these numbers.
LOL given leaves grasp of figures I'm not sure who to believe more. The UK is on the hook for payments and Davis knows this,in fact it will be in one of his oh so manylon pages of plans.
Lead by may negotiations start with a u turn inside the first day.
Edukator all the figures are just made up fantasies, mainky for gullible members of the European public who are being lead to believe that tye UK's massive net £10bn payment intontye EU budget won't be missed.
Sigh. It's not £10bn. The Daily Telegraph thinks it's a mere £6.5bn:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-much-do-we-spend-on-the-eu-and-what-else-could-it-pay-for/
But you probably knew that.
Well the. Irishtimes agrees with my assessment
Looks a lot like schadenfreude to me after years of the Irish being the butt of English jokes about the Irish being idiots...
I agree with him... we're being led by utter donkeys at the moment...
[quote=Junkyard ]unwise council estate lad who was in the SAS *
* technically the reservist/TA SAS but i bet he is pretty tough
Old bloke who thinks he's still tough.
[quote=jambalaya ]What Davies and the UK team did is ask the EU what LEGAL basis they have for the request
cite
Probably is compared to the other fella whose backstory I do not know but i am guessing he is not as rough and toughty
Look lets be honest the outcome being decided by a fight to the death between the two is probably our best, and only, chance of success 😉
cite makes a lot more sense now i know you are politely saying #jambyfact
It's sad that France is now the coolest country in Europe.
And we're now the least cool.
UK's massive net £10bn payment intontye EU budget won't be missed.
Why do you keep using the wrong fing figure??
I don't know, I guess BS is your forte..
Anyway, is it wrong to be amused by David Davis' crap performance today?
Is the UK actually the B-ark ?
8 seats to one of the pictures our pit pet right wing nut jobs' masturbation wall (yeah, yeah, she "stepped down"). Not even enough to form a parliamentary group.
AfD in Germany polling at its lowest since 2 years.
I wish I'd watched the news instead of believing the guy who'd been correct on everything, ever. I'd assumed the Eurozone had collapsed and Turkey was about to join the EU and we'd have an ocean of refugees waiting at Calais.
That'll teach me.
looks like ole Davis is alone and naked. oh, the imagery.
Jamba - couple of thoughts.
We know what that number is. It is 2 years of budget contributions net of rebates. Post A50 payments are guillotined, ie cut off.
1. The A50 guillotine as you describe it is the no deal position - agreed? So if we want a deal it's likely to be more - agreed again?
2. You previously said no more money, and you've now gone for £20bn - any advance on £20bn?
We started capitulating to EU demands within hours of the negotiation, usual suspects gone quiet, wonder if any of these brexies get what's about to happen?
You guys are hysterical
The EU agreed to discuss trade at their October summit irrespective of any progress or not on the exit arrangements. I can tell you there is going to be no substantive progress on the exit bill by October not least as the Germans have elections and need to keep up the €100bn premise so there are no conversations domestically about how much extra they will have to pay.
Kier Starmer is in a dreadful mess trying to appeal to Remain and Leave Labour voters, even when Ewan pins him down he won't state his postion clearly and lets the BBC do it for him. Labour would give up the ability to sign trade deals with anyone outside the EU in return for membership of the customs union and tariff free trade with the EU, also no mention of cost either. What a dogs breakfast.
Kier Starmer is in a dreadful mess trying to appeal to Remain and Leave Labour voters, even when Ewan pins him down he won't state his postion clearly and lets the BBC do it for him. Labour would give up the ability to sign trade deals with anyone outside the EU in return for membership of the customs union and tariff free trade with the EU, also no mention of cost either. What a dogs breakfast.
Are Labour doing the deal? Has Davis been told he's not supposed to be there?
I can tell you there is going to be no substantive progress on the exit bill by October
Well...
We all know how accurate your predictions are!
😆
as the Germans have elections
What's your prediction?
150 seat majority for your admired AfD?
jambs stop digging!
if you really are a typical leaver then it explains the brexit debate quite well
[url= https://www.healthspiritbody.com/signs-of-a-sociopath/?tzfd2 ]Here Are 5 Undeniable Signs That You Are Arguing With A Sociopath[/url]
