I don't thik that is how May thinks at all. I do not believe she has the subtlety. I think she is genuinely attempting to find a way to keep bth sides of her party on side.
The Queen doesn’t like the idea of the nation being torn up and annexed so refuses to give Royal Assent.
Ah wouldn't be amusing if the monarch kept us in the EU?
Mefty – are the euro elections D’Hondt ? I thought that was the holyrood system of constituencies plus a list top up. I thought the euro were simple regional list sytems?
D'Hondt is an allocation methodology which works and is used for both.
It is somewhat laughable, is it not, to decry accountability in a system to which so little is generally known?
Arguably the reverse applies too, the lack of accountability argument tends to ignore the Parliament as it has such limited powers. One thing it does illustrate well is that people don't understand PR systems.
Ta Mefty - its about how the preferences are distributed not the list plus top up then yes?
Shows how tricky this is when a political geek can't get it right
However the interesting thing is that people seem to understand how to use their votes in the 4 different systems we have.
Tusk says the EU27 agreed there would be no Brexit agreement without a workable solution to the Irish border problem.
They agreed there should be “as much clarity as possible” on the future trade relationship. He says the single market must be protected and that the Chequers plans for economic cooperation will no work because they would undermine it.
Not sure is just the late night, but May looked crushed in that press conference,(shes not the most photogenic, but her robot dance hinted at some humour, not today tho!) Chequers isnt necessarily dead but surely thered be too many compromises required to get it past the headbanger brexiters in the party.
So Canda deal? going to need a lot of '+' s to make it acceptible to both business, finance & Labour./ Tory remainers, not to mention NI border & still includes customs checks that hit car makers, airbus etc
She has to quit now. Her credibility is gone.
There's still no NI border solution and that was one of the most immediate problems with Chequers. Not much point coming up with another different non-solution. "No deal" isn't a solution either. No brexit, on the other hand...
tick, and most definitely, tock
Chequers was dead in the water the day it was announced. Its obvious that it cannot work.
Mays problem is to accept the EUs quite sensible position on NI would mean the DUP having a canary and Scotland wanting the same deal. I do love her threatening the EU with "no deal"
How much longer can she go on. Norway is unacceptable to large parts of her own party. Canada would mean a hard border in NI thus breaking both the good friday agreement and her pledge on no hard border. Her relines rule anything else out. She ha predicatably painted herself into a corner with no way out.
I have never seen such political incompetence in my life. Makes it look like Major and Callaghan were both right on top and in charge of an orderly government
So Canda deal? going to need a lot of ‘+’ s to make it acceptible to both business, finance & Labour./ Tory remainers, not to mention NI border & still includes customs checks that hit car makers, airbus etc
Canada deal, except for NI, which gets a better deal than anywhere else in Europe.
Shitty on the mainland for manufacturing, retail, farming, fishing… well, just about all industries, but that's the will of the people, apparently.
Labour will be pretending they can get something better* before transition ends, and will push for a GE during transition. Transition extends and extends, while we keep rearranging deckchairs.
[ *benefits of SM&CU, without responsibilities ]
Rebels in all parties will push for EEA+CU and a public vote to chose between that and remain… but chances of that happening before we "leave" are tiny and getting smaller every day.
Tick. Tock.
She has to quit now. Her credibility is gone.
Gone? You speak as if she had some.
Worked on preview but ended up indecipherable - that me done for a bit - can't be bothered
Shame Mefty - its good to have differing viewpoints
if we leave will they fix the forum so it can parse xml correctly?
if we leave will they fix the forum so it can parse xml correctly?
In ascending order of difficulty:
- Rubik's Cube
- Solving world poverty
- Obtaining a drink of water on the top of a mountain
- Resolving the NI border after Brexit
... <big gap>
- Fixing the STW editor XML parser
I've spoken with Mrs May and she's optimistic that it can be fixed, so you can relax now.
This seems to be Mays negotiating tactic right now
Just catching up. What a surprise, the EU sticking to the stance they said they would not budge on 2 years ago. How very dare they. I think it's about now that the fantasists begin to understand the phrase 'take it or leave it'. No doubt the nutters will be on the news tonight talking about the germans wanting us to buy their cars, and the French and Italians begging us to buy their wine.
If the German car manufacturers pull out of the UK, because of supply chain issues and increased costs, then we'll end up buying more German made cars, not fewer. Same goes for [insert nationality of car brand owner] cars.
Chequers isnt necessarily dead
Its 100% dead. The EU won't accept it. The tory nut jobs won't accept it. Its dead. Mays now trying to call the EU's bluff. That'll fail too.
No deal looming. Constitutional crisis imminent.
Yep. And the EU27 will try to capitalise on the 20% or so of UK trade with the RoW that are through EU agreements (which the UK of course won’t be party to or have replaced - initially at least).
Only our exports really up for grabs there I suppose.
onstitutional crisis imminent
Lots of internet chatter about a December election… still think that Labour will prefer it after we've "left", and will just want to propose a different (not necessarily achievable) approach to what we are "transitioning" to, at that point. And I can't see the Conservatives risking it.
Extending A50 countdown starts now… (and yes, May has ruled that out, but she may have no choice). Why would the except it? Only if there is a "cunning plan' for the Uk to unite around an approach… with the dangled possibility of not leaving at all. Referendum time… more and more rebel politicans on all sides are openly pushing it as the laxative we'll have to reluctantly take.
And the EU27 will try to capitalise on the 20% or so of UK trade with the RoW that are through EU agreements
Indeed. We're about to get a lesson in the power of supranational trade blocs and political unions. The nutters are finally going to get their wish to roll the clock back to the days when we plucky British underdogs thumbed our noses to the fascists on the continent. How long before we have Boris Johnson on the telly talking about fighting them on the beaches?
Thought that was on the news 6 months ago
Listening to two MPs from Portsmouth on the radio on the way home. The nutty Leave Tory, after dismissing stockpiling of life saving medicines as ‘medical stuff’ that will ‘need to be sorted’, had a go at luring the Labour Remain guy by asking if they would come out and say they are against a second referendum.
He very deftly declined, threw the ball back to the silly cow and pretty much said “Nah, nice try, but this is your mess, you sort the ****er out”.
Brexit cannot actually happen. Never could.
Will we need an upgraded fan to cope with the amount of shit hitting it?
That chequers thang was a bit like the monty python parrot sketch 🙂
Just when you think she can’t fk it up any more “she shooots she scores”.
I'm just hoping she's pulling an "omar" from the wire. Maybe it's not the EU she's trying to get one over on, and she's stitching up the uk brexit process until there's no choice but to remain.
Let's look at the evidence..
Appoints professional flannel David Davis as negotiator to fail...
Appoints professional racist Boris Johnson as foreign Secretary to fail....
I could go on...
All in the game y'all. All in the game.
Interesting day, just observing the body language and the absolure consistently of the EU position - 27 countries that are more aligned than the Tory party.
Dutch PM saying they are better prepared for a Hard Brexit than the UK...
Basically the EU has called our bluff and Mrs May is a dead PM walking.
So we have 4 maybe 6 weeks to eat the biggest shit sandwich possibly ever created.
The peoples vote is almost certain as no politicians of any colour can sort this complete and utter cluster ****
We have just relegated ourselves out of the worlds respected countries/economies and no one will ever take us seriously for a bloody long time. We May have to go back on bended knee.
An alternative interpretation
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/7309816/the-sun-says-eu-brexit-mobsters/
It's certainly a comfort to know that behind the scenes the grownups are negotiating a good solution.
That's presumably why THM has been so quiet recently.
It’s certainly a comfort to know that behind the scenes the grownups are negotiating a good solution.
Shame me no one from the UK is involved...
Those "two bit mobsters" are the national leaders of 26 of the countries on our doorstop. This was an informal meeting of national leaders. We have to find a way of dealing with them. We had a way, which people have voted to withdraw from, what's the alternative method, and how effective does it look? Only one leader is supporting our fantasy, and that's the lone fascist leader in the EU, and he has his own reasons.
the ****ing omnishambles rumbles on and on.
Interesting times. May was lured into a trap, including the deliberately claustrophobic room for her press conference, but she was badly advised about the likelihood of a good result.
The EU is ultimately terrified of Britain leaving "the project" but I think their manipulative/nefarious tactics may backfire, as they only serve to anger the leavers and also convert remainers to leavers. They obviously want a second referendum, and who knows they may get one, but the result will be the same.
UK needs to leave with a No Deal in March, and then I suspect towards the end of the transition the EU will suddenly come up with a deal that looks remarkably similar to Chequers. War of attrition etc.
I wouldn't be surprised if she resigns today.
There was no "trap" or "nefarious tactics" The EU leaders were intending to offer kind words but May angered them with her piece in the european papers and with her speech. Thats why she go short shrift.
There is zero chance of the EU offering anything like chequers. Its simply not possible under EU law.
Showing how little you understand - no deal means no transition arrangements. simple fact.
badly advised about the likelihood of a good result
Oh, FFS… civil servants that disagree with her are shifted sideways, or resign, or made to retire… ministers that disagree with her likewise. She only wants to hear advice she likes.
serve to anger the leavers and also convert remainers to leavers
There is a lot of truth in this: the media will blame the EU for not doing what May wants, even though what she wants isn't what anyone in the UK wants anyway. So bad EU for not delivering whatever it is that May wants, even if we don't want it.
Anyway, new four week deadline…
Tick. Tock.
I don't think they are terrified, they probably aren't looking forward to the harm it will cause but on the bright side they wouldn't have to put up with british intransigence any more.
"UK needs to leave with a No Deal in March" is full on ROFLCOPTER territory. TNUMTWNT is alive and well!
Anyone calling for No Deal needs to clarify what they'd do about the Irish border - that problem doesn't go away.
Anymore détails on the No deal Handyman ?
Like planes, ports people etc....
The official brextremist policy is "**** the irish"
Maybe it’s not the EU she’s trying to get one over on, and she’s stitching up the uk brexit process until there’s no choice but to remain.
I still wonder this.
Is she quietly lining up a totally unpalatable future for UK with a No Deal Brexit in the hope that parliament and voters will swing enough back towards the better-than-the-alternative EU partnership / remain....
Either that, or the tories do really want us to crap on on a no deal...
Should be an interesting Tory conférence.
May was lured into a trap, including the deliberately claustrophobic room for her press conference, but she was badly advised about the likelihood of a good result.
What the actual farage ? You are saying that the EU deliberately put May into a small room & that's what made her look completely out of her depth & flourndering like a kipper???
She's fuct the job because she (& the Brexiters) have continually pushed the fantasy that we could keep benefits of EU, SM, CU membership after we left.
While the EU have said from day 1 that 4 freedoms are indivisible.
She also ( & again Davis etc been pushing this fib) reckoned she'd get a better deal by ignoring Barnier & going round his back to EU heads of state.
& Again unsurprisingly EU repeated what they said on day 1- speak to our negotiator.
The EU is ultimately terrified of Britain leaving “the project” but I think their manipulative/nefarious tactics may backfire
They are terrified, as any sane person would be, but they are more terrified of 4 freedoms being split. Which is why our bluff has been called
As Dutch PM pointed out yesterday they had their no deal plans way ahead of ours, EU drew up & released their impact assessments months before Davis even started lying about ours existing !
Frankly I'm amazed that people still think it's a viable tactic, every other single plan from brexiters: from schedule, NI backstop, divorce bill, to citizens rights has seen the government concede to the EU in talks so far. Simply put we have the weaker hand, despite the constant lies of the brexiteers pretending otherwise.
The EU is ultimately terrified of Britain leaving “the project” but I think their manipulative/nefarious tactics may backfire, as they only serve to anger the leavers and also convert remainers to leavers.
The UK needs to get over itself. The UK leaving is a problem but one of our own making. From Sweden to Greece EU countries really have more important shit to be dealing with. They have always been quite clear on what they considered important. We have never once put forward a workable plan.
If we had dead children washed up on our beaches, then maybe we would realise there really are bigger issues in the World.
It's all explained fairly concisely here.
Same as two years ago basically. All we have to do is decide are we leaving or not? At least the nutters recognise this and are being honest in wanting to get out with no deal. The rest is all just froth.
They are terrified
The bigger threat to Europe is the contagion that will occur if the UK gets to leave without it having significant negative impacts, as others, like the Italians, will want the same thing. Compared to that, the German car industry and French and Italian wine industries losing sales pales into insignificance. Lets face it, they are going to crush us. They want us to be going back on our knees begging to be let back in. The only question is how long will it take the 'Great British Public' and their dishonest leaders to swallow their pride and admit they made a terrible mistake.
The bigger threat to Europe is the contagion that will occur if the UK gets to leave without it having significant negative impacts
Exactly and has always been why the UK can't possibly get a good deal. The EU simply can't allow it.
Should be an interesting Tory conférence.
Normally I would be:
But not sure I can manage that in the present circumstances. I just want a GE so I can harangue my MP when he's forced to show his face in public (Tory chief whip).
The official brextremist policy is “* the irish”
Throwing Ireland (and to a lesser extent Holland, Denmark, Belgium and the Czech Republic) under the bus is inherent in any kind of Brexit, but a "hard" Brexit will hit the ROI's GDP nearly as hard as ours. So yes, it's time to * the Irish again.
Irish gdp forecast in case of hard brexit is 7 or 8% drop iirc, I think uk will be looking at more than that.(I am not an economist or a grown up)
Brexit slowly uniting Ireland. All that money wasted on armalites from Libya, PIRA should’ve just bigged up Farage.
What the actual farage
<notes down for future use >
ah, I surmise that martinhutch is a local then. Not a great deal of point voting here.
From Sweden to Greece EU countries really have more important shit to be dealing with.
As do we. Our Health and Social Care systems are falling apart, education from nursery to university is decaying rapidly, justice from Police through courts to prisons is a mess and no longer anything to be proud of, roads and other transport infrastructure are disintegrating, housing is inadequate, food banks are proliferating... And we are ignoring all of that and instead spending many years and untold billions of pounds on brexit, which itself can only result in a reduction in the amount of resources we have to repair all those broken things. I've said it before on this thread, but it really does make me cry at the sheer, utter, stupidity of it all.
As do we. Our Health and Social Care systems are falling apart, education from nursery to university is decaying rapidly, justice from Police through courts to prisons is a mess and no longer anything to be proud of, roads and other transport infrastructure are disintegrating, housing is inadequate, food banks are proliferating… And we are ignoring all of that and instead spending many years and untold billions of pounds on brexit, which itself can only result in a reduction in the amount of resources we have to repair all those broken things. I’ve said it before on this thread, but it really does make me cry at the sheer, utter, stupidity of it all.
Yes but blue passports dude! Actual blue passports.
the trouble with this government is they are starting to believe their own rhetoric!
ah, I surmise that martinhutch is a local then. Not a great deal of point voting here.
There are many areas where you feel that you vote may not count but even if all of the options are poor once you give up and step away you definitely lose rather than most likely lose.... I guess that sums up Brexit for me. People to disengaged to vote or too disengaged to capitalise on what ever situation we had...
Europe is not terrified.
Italie was in a bigger mess before joining the EU.
Eu has nothing to gain by crushing the UK. It just want to protect its rules.
Brexit cannot actually happen. Never could.
I think it can, however. The closest parallel i can think of, Irish Independence.
Ireland left the UK in 1921 via a war! it was still very attached to the UK until relatively recently. It is only really because of the EU that the RoI has been able to break free to any real extent.
So your looking at decades! and again looking at Ireland major issues. Only detail the Irish could emmigrate to get work, the British have blocked that source of income.
Yes but blue passports dude! Actual blue passports.
Yep The great win, probably the only quantifiable thing as everything Brexit is ethereal.(until the massive truck traffic jam on Brexit day and the baffling price increases in food.)
Do love hearing the “Get on with it” phrase on the telly thou,
Well where does May go from here , she’s nailed her position on the table and they’ve just took a dump all over it.
(IMHOI think it’s her out tbh and she can do a Cameron with her head held aloft saying how she tried, knowing all along she was just in it for the ride.j
Our Health and Social Care systems are falling apart, education from nursery to university is decaying rapidly, justice from Police through courts to prisons is a mess and no longer anything to be proud of, roads and other transport infrastructure are disintegrating, housing is inadequate, food banks are proliferating… And we are ignoring all of that and instead spending many years and untold billions of pounds on brexit, which itself can only result in a reduction in the amount of resources we have to repair all those broken things. I’ve said it before on this thread, but it really does make me cry at the sheer, utter, stupidity of it all.
This.
Anyone with half a brain cell who is advocating leaving with no deal is a wrecker who probably wants to profit personally in a one-hit wonder as the NHS, Education etc are broken up and tendered out to cowboy outsourcers. Anyone else advocating leaving with no deal is crackers, for one reason or another.
So it's either BRINO and some civil unrest immediately, or No Deal and decades of unrest as the UK goes into an economic nosedive. Or best of all, call the whole sorry shambles off. If May calls a GE I will vote LibDem because they've basically stated their aim as 'Get Brexit stopped and then stand aside'. This is exactly what I want.
The two most vocal leavers at work are still on about how they'll be able to "send the ****s back"(she says this pointing at a Turkish shop) and how we'll be able to "export stuff again" and "watch the pound soar" however his 8yo grandson wants to be a president or a mermaid when he grows up so not sure there's great IQ lineage on that side.
With that kind of attitude I'm not sure if there's anything that can be done for some people.
Having found myself becoming increasingly irritated over time, by the media’s political interrogators’ tendency to cut off politician’s answers half way through by barking another question at them, I’ve developed a sneaking admiration for John Redwood’s technique.
He just raises his voice to a shout and barges his way through it until he’s finished what he’s got to say, sometimes saying “What?” at the end... 😂
I think I am probably as confused and frightened about this that I have ever been.
Adamant I did not want Brexit and think those that did were either wrong, misinformed or duped. I (along with most clear thinking people) foresaw this car crash coming - when in the history of marriage did anyone tell their spouse they wanted a divorce out of the blue and not get thoroughly shafted. Half of me feels smug/content in a 'told you so' kind of way but it's way too important to feel that.
Then there is a possibility of leaving without any sort of deal if I'm proved right - that has to be the worst possible scenario as a remainer surly.
Then if we got to a 2nd referendum (if) will all the politicians who campaigned remain but have worked towards a brexit using a 'people have spoken' populist mandate about turn again?
What an unholy mess.
what onewheelgood said is bang on
sadly look at the number of people clapping like mad on QT when one of the brexiteers nutters says 'we will just walk away with no deal'
& you can see that a 2nd ref could well send us furrther up the creek, with no paddle & possibly no boat when they vote out again!
Polling would need to be consistently at 60%+ before risking a second referendum. However, the current impasse may necessitate it being “put back to the people” before then. If anything May’s repeated refusals to consider it, added to her and her fellow Torys’ constant haranguing of Corbyn and his MPs are putting it far more clearly on the horizon presently.
Polling would need to be consistently at 60%+ before risking a second referendum.
For an in/out ref, yes. But it'll be a ref on the specific deal, so the result will depend on what's offered.
Don't forget the other effects. No deal brexit would almost certainly mean a reunited ireland and an independent scotland - the polls show that in the event of a no deal brexit then there is a huge majority in both countries for that. even the unionist community would prefer a united Ireland to a hard border ( but not the headbanger unionists) and that a no deal brexit would mean a significant majority for independence for scotland. I know folk who campaigned no last scottish referndum but win the face of a no deal brexit they would now vote yes.
& you can see that a 2nd ref could well send us furrther up the creek, with no paddle & possibly no boat when they vote out again!
A second referendum is a terrible idea IMO. Why would we compound the original cluster**** of having a referendum in the first place by repeating it? I'm convinced a new referendum will be even more pro-brexit than the last. Does anyone think the nutters will somehow not lie and misrepresent like they did last time? And next time they'll have the whole 'we told you they'd try and reverse it' argument. I see absolutely no evidence that the outcome would be any different.
No deal brexit would almost certainly mean a reunited ireland and an independent scotland
It could be worse than that. The resultant recession/depression across the whole of Europe could result in the collapse of the EU, not to mention the seizure of power in lots of states by rightwing populists. History could be very close to repeating itself.
May's 'mystery' statement turned out to be nothing of use.
I’m convinced a new referendum will be even more pro-brexit than the last.
The original leave vote was split between people who thought we could get a good deal and people who didn't give a shit.
Does anyone know anyone who voed remain but would now vote leave?
My parents would now votel remain as they now know what harm it will do to my business.
I have friends now returned from abroad who would vote remain and one of their sons now of voting age.
I know of many now dead leavers.
No matter how impassioned a leaver you are you still only get 1 vote.
Given May's Red lines the EU's refusal to budge for her and the failure of Chequers, I think she's probably dead in the water. If I were the 1922 committee (or whomever it is in the Tory party who control these things) I'd be inviting her to step down before she's pushed. Replace with "Anyone who is not a raving loony" before the Actual Raving Loonies gather themselves together to make a push for it.
New PM can then ignore May's idiotic Red lines, negotiate a deal (for what it's worth) with the EU and we can argue the details later.
As do we. Our Health and Social Care systems are falling apart, education from nursery to university is decaying rapidly, justice from Police through courts to prisons is a mess and no longer anything to be proud of, roads and other transport infrastructure are disintegrating, housing is inadequate, food banks are proliferating… And we are ignoring all of that and instead spending many years and untold billions of pounds on brexit, which itself can only result in a reduction in the amount of resources we have to repair all those broken things. I’ve said it before on this thread, but it really does make me cry at the sheer, utter, stupidity of it all.
Its almost like those with a right-wing, unbridled belief in the free market thought up the whole thing to distract everyone while they went about dismantling the state under everyone's stupid noses.
Another referendum would be a disaster.
What this shit-show needs is a credible movement within the Labour party to ditch the pathetic 'will-of-the-people' trope and tell it like it is, that this was an entirely unsuitable decision to be put to a referendum, regardless of the fact it was endless Tory factionalism that first brought it to the national table, and revoke the whole thing. It was stupid then, it's just as stupid now. A general election is becoming more likely by the day IMO, that has to be the platform to stand on.
I’m convinced a new referendum will be even more pro-brexit than the last.
It it will be labelled as a vote for freedom vs a vote for servitude. There is no logic only emotion in this battle and the flag waving brigade will always have the upper hand. It has gone too far and got too bitter...
a vote on the deal will be too confusing for most. It will come down to the crap deal we will negotiate vs no deal. May is a remainer and is trying to satisfy the rabids whilst getting the least shit deal and trying to avoid no deal... there is no chance she is going to let people vote for no deal.
if the two options are
crap deal
no deal
if you vote for either you are effectively endorsing it as what you want. It allows everyone to wash their hands and say the public wanted xyz that they had negotiated, unless they break it into sections with a vote on different things.
History shows that there comes a time only the pessimists survive.
Tick, tock.
Polling shows a majority for remain now does it not?