Yes he is asking for a link. Go on, be brave and post something with a verifiable source. Just once.
The rest of us would love to read the report, chuck us a link up unless you don't know how.
Had you not read it first
Stop dodging and provide a link. That way it makes it a lot easier to spot where you are either lying or are confused.
Now. Provide the source for this quote. If you made it up then just admit to it.
”these lies, sorry this paper focuses on the immediate impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow”
Time for a New European caption competition. Best suggestion (from Twitter and FB) wins a TNE t-shirt!
"Tories accidentaly read Singletrack EU thread."
Move on.
Lots happened today. Discuss some of that.
The Boris&Bone launch was a bit hollow, no?
[ edit - sorry @kimbers, your post on this hadn't appeared yet, when I posted ]
What about the Gov of the BoE staying on to help us out? What a good egg. He's being slammed by Brexitiers for his acceptance of a request to stay though, but then, who cares?
The Boris&Bone launch was a bit hollow, no?
Thats what makes it fairly useless to discuss. Its pretty much simply saying everything will be fine just shout free trade loudly and try a model no one else has ever done and it will all be great.
The rest of us would love to read the report, chuck us a link up unless you don’t know how.
FFS. Just to move things on. And because thm is being perversely coy.
FWIW, it seems apparent that "Vote" and "Triggering Article 50" have been incorrectly conflated in the document but however it's interpreted it did predict the economic position in advance of actual departure from the EU and the predictions are still excessively "doomy" relative to our current position.
page three, para 7 of the report you must have read to post your post
Got me again diss, I made up the “these lies,sorry” bit. The rest is “kosher” (with apologies to you-know-who)
we did try kelvin but good news went down like a cup of cold sick
<div data-canvas-width="379.189989181489">This paper focuses on the immediate economi</div>
<div data-canvas-width="324.42699184915904">c impact of a vote to leave and the two</div>
<div data-canvas-width="301.5822475624753">years that follow. Such a vote would</div>
<div data-canvas-width="326.8139552073323">change fundamentally not just the UK’s</div>
<div data-canvas-width="352.27045269757235">relationship with the EU, our largest trading</div>
<div data-canvas-width="345.57819230071425">partner, but also our relationship with the</div>
<div data-canvas-width="357.5358690758573">rest of the world. The instability and uncerta</div>
<div data-canvas-width="293.46695314442394">inty that would trigger is assessed.</div>
<div data-canvas-width="317.71568146540426">The Treasury analysis in this document</div>
<div data-canvas-width="372.0176691148309">uses a widely-accepted modelling approach</div>
<div data-canvas-width="314.8086534649474">that looks at the impact of this uncerta</div>
<div data-canvas-width="323.4611575134895">inty and instability on financial markets,</div>
<div data-canvas-width="294.8328372049268">households and businesses, as our</div>
<div data-canvas-width="323.9183571990138">economy transitions to a worse trading</div>
<div data-canvas-width="214.28187261035217">arrangement with the EU.</div>
<div data-canvas-width="707.2726735161503">I am grateful to Professor Sir Charles Bean, one of our country's foremost economists</div>
<div data-canvas-width="370.67464503860396">and a former Deputy Governor of the Bank of</div>
<div data-canvas-width="339.0040418226167">England, who has reviewed this analysis</div>
<div data-canvas-width="361.5820862927449">and says that it “provides reasonable estima</div>
<div data-canvas-width="306.09518945833526">tes of the likely size of the short-term</div>
<div data-canvas-width="191.11708854380154">impact of a vote to leav</div>
<div data-canvas-width="196.77874464954078">e on the UK economy”.</div>
<div data-canvas-width="196.77874464954078">Is this the one we are meant to take as an overinflated bit of political interfering?</div>
<div data-canvas-width="196.77874464954078">Looks like they have set out what, how and why they think an outcome will happen.</div>
<div data-canvas-width="196.77874464954078"></div>
<div data-canvas-width="196.77874464954078">One would have to assume similar methodologies are being used by many businesses such as banks to evaluate their next steps and to exploit the markets ;)</div>
and no my post isn't broken it's your eyes
Pls don’t link the forum can’t take it. 😀
Was the good news a 5 day high @teamhurtmore?
So, any comments on the PM's plan, or the ERG's vanishing plan, or Corbyn's vagueness… where do we go now…? Fudge with future relationship pushed past the Leave date? Then what… new leaders… new government… ?
5 day???- are you some kind of mountain lion?
you missed out the Irish timetable news too
The Taoiseach said he agreed with Michel Barnier's assessment that a Brexit deal is possible within six to eight weeks
“We need to do it too because you know the longer we leave it the longer we wait until we have an agreement," Mr Varadkar added.
He insisted a deal was possible in October but "may well run into November"
Can we assume that he is not telling fibs? They have the most to lose among our EU friends
I have no idea what you're on about.
I have no idea what you’re on about.
You're far from alone there...
Pls don’t link the forum can’t take it.
TURBOMEGALOLZCOPTER
<p class=”amp-o-paragraph”>The Taoiseach said he agreed with Michel Barnier’s assessment that a Brexit deal is possible within six to eight weeks .</p>
<p class=”amp-o-paragraph”>”We need to do it too because you know the longer we leave it the longer we wait until we have an agreement,” Mr Varadkar added.</p>
<p class=”amp-o-paragraph”>He insisted a deal was possible in October but “may well run into November”.</p>
Of course its possible, the UK just needs to wake up and take the deal that the eu will offer. Then tory implosion and roll on an election
Ah, I see THM has edited his riddle to include some information, and even a link! Thanks!
So, we're on for a fudged withdrawal agreement. Cool. Now, who backs that agreement over here? And … what are we transitioning to? And who backs that?
Just popping back in. Has our astroturfer from a few pages back revealed themselves?
Just reading through the news, although the hard Brexiteers don’t like the Chequers Plan, they’re trying to sell a no-deal WTO Brexit. I see that Raab has been criticised by Barnier for attempting to make deals with individual EU27 countries at the behest of Chris Grayling.
I’m reminded of the time that my five year old cousin tried to assemble a Lego car chassis.
De nada kelvin.
And… back to the empty riddle style THM posts with no point or content.
Of course we are on for a fudge. Where have you been? Both sides started with incompatible positions, ergo....
as a pro European i thought you would appreciate my gratitude. Or was the “thanks” just trol.....
Thankfully some of us have a bit of backbone and grit and we’ll continue to fight for what we believe in rather than being pansy defeatist cucks!
Ah so getting all stroppy will break the will of thr eu you keep telling us don't negotiate.
Wonderful.
Dunno ask bob. He’s the advocate. Have to say I thing he’s overstating it, don’t you?
wonder why we are downgrading our official outlook to “some turbulence” now? What happened to doom and gloom?
Well that all makes sense then ...
About as much sense as someone reporting me for “quoting” bob’s charming words and mods failing to “read and scrutinise”. Wonder which one...?
still if quoting worked in the upgrade !!!
still if quoting worked in the upgrade !!!
What about it?
The rest is “kosher” (with apologies to you-know-who)
I don't. Who are you talking about?
Gulls still following the troller I see.
Thankfully some of us have a bit of backbone and grit and we’ll continue to fight for what we believe in rather than being pansy defeatist cucks!
You voted Remain, you (self-evidently) spineless pansy defeated cuck (I have no idea what a cuck is).
Ouch
it looks like the brexiteers have taken the humiliation at their failure to launch their hard brexit plans today rather badly
I am just going to let this speak for itself. It’s a slightly edited but verbatim account of tonight’s weekly meeting of the Brexiter European Research Group faction of the Conservative Party.
It requires no additional comment from me - other than that I have multiple sources vouching for its veracity.
“We've just had an ERG mass meeting, 50 odd MPs present, where virtually the only topic of conversation for 40/50 mins was: how best do we get rid of her? What's the best way to use our letters? '
Comments included: ‘Everyone I know says she has to go’, ‘she's a disaster’, ‘this can't go on’.
You might think that this is usual far for us, but it's not! Not in the mass weekly meeting, never in what's basically a public forum.
The truly amazing thing was they spoke about it so openly, in such an unabashed way, even though they could see the Whips' sneak sitting there.
Really, really detailed discussion of the mechanics of how best you game the leadership election rules. And zero dissent.
No one, in a room of fifty Tory MPs even raised a squeak of objection. Not even a murmured pretence as good form. Nor did anyone preface their remarks with any 'sadly I've concluded formulae'.
We were in the Thatcher Room to add piquancy”.
About as much sense as someone reporting me for “quoting” bob’s charming words and mods failing to “read and scrutinise”. Wonder which one…?
The warning wasn't me, it was another moderator who isn't taking part in this conversation. Generally we all try not to moderate in discussions we're personally involved with, that would be poor form.
Posts don't always require a report in order to receive a warning, though it's helpful for us.
Hardly a surprise that you want to suggest bias or assume that no-one else got warnings other than you, of course. It feeds your agenda.
Tory party conference is going to be a cheery affair 😀
Tory party conference is going to be a cheery affair
Imagine the pent up frustration when they can't do their mistress for fear of being ratted out
the conference really cant be as bonkers as last years can it????
might be some upsets at the labour one too, lots pushing for an anti-brexit stance, but their ambiguity is still keeping many leavers onside
THM went for drinks after work then posted on the train ride home, didn’t he?
might be some upsets at the labour one too, lots pushing for an anti-brexit stance, but their ambiguity is still keeping many leavers onside
Don't worry, any day now Corbyn's going to come good on his commitment that party policy will reflect the wishes of the membership.
Looks like the ERG's alternative plan is coming along nicely.
50 odd MPs
And that's the nicest thing anyone's ever called them.
Unfortunately the Monster Raving Loony Party has already been used,is that why they're known as the ERG ?
We get the ERGs solution to NI border today....
Ultimately I don't think the 50 odd MPs will vote down chequers, they know it'd put them too close to having another emecelec & maybe another ref....
I'm no fan of May, but the way she clings on and little by little froths the gammony faced ERG crew closer to a stress related heart attack.......I'm slowly warming to her.
That photo is excellent.
Me neither, and yet despite everything she might finally deliver something - in this case BREXIT.
Many “stronger” folk would have and indeed have melted away under the heat in the kitchen. Perhaps, ironically, it takes a strong woman to deliver after all?
<p>Me neither, and yet despite everything she might finally deliver something – in this case BREXIT.</p>
<p>Yes by declaring article 50 completely unprepared she just has to hold on in order to do that.</p>
<p>Many “stronger” folk would have and indeed have melted away under the heat in the kitchen.</p>
<p>Or some would have worked out it was a shit situation and thought a little more and been actually honest with the people</p>
I’m pretty certain May has Aspergers.
Me neither, and yet despite everything she might finally deliver something – in this case BREXIT.
That will happen even if she just puts her feet up and does nothing - no particular strength required.
no particular strength required.
It isnt exactly setting the standards high is it? Think I might try and get that into my next performance plan. Just "deliver" something regardless of how good it is. That said it does seem to work for some outsourcing companies.
That’s very classy
i see john mcdonnell speaking in favour of another general election over a second referendum. hubris? given the redrawing of boundaries the estimate i heard was that if the last election was re-run the tories would be sitting on a 16 lead. yay! let's have another election so we can spunk some more time down the road and loose again, but better!
Is it just post random words thm? At the moment we have no idea who you are having a go about. Can't see anything as classy as your insult post on the previous page.
If @teamhurtmore means @zippykona's Aspergers comment, then I agree, pretty poor.
As for the achievement of May so far… she's almost got us to where we should have been before we triggered A50. Almost. We now HAVE to get a transition or delay, as we can't be ready for any other outcomes by our current exit date… she's given the EU complete control.
Tick. Tock.
Barnier is right to be confident of getting a withdrawal agreement sorted this year… we have no choice.
Do we think that, privately, May wants the EU to be in control, as she trusts them more than her own MPs, when it comes to the immediate future of the UK? Dangerous game.
feet up and does nothing
The Dave Davis approach. Strange how the ERG have forgotten that one of their own was in charge for the first 18 months.
Strange how the ERG have forgotten that one of their own was in charge for the first 18 months
Thats different though for obvious reasons. That this needs explaining to you really is nuts. Just look at that report I posted five months before the referendum which makes this clear and to preempt any boring requests for evidence ohhh look a squirrel!
Asperger's Disorder Symptoms. Significant difficulty in the use of multiple nonverbal behaviors such as the lack of eye contact, few facial expressions, awkward or clumsy body postures and gestures. Failure to develop friendships with other children of the same age.
Indeed kelvin. We agree
Govey on R4 this morning being a complete ****. I'm not usually a violent person but would make an exception for the most punchable face in politics.
Looking forward to the NI solution from the 50 very odd MPs. Pixie dust and an honesty box?
Asperger’s Disorder Symptoms
All of those can also occur in people with other disorders or indeed none at all. Hence why diagnosis should be left to the experts and not randomly used as a semi insult.
As one random data point obviously she cant dance but then again neither can most other people. Hence why nightclubs tend not to have people on the dance floor until the blood alcohol level is sufficiently high enough that people overrule the little voice telling them that. Can you imagine dancing sober in front of tv cameras? I know some people would do so happily but I suspect even most of those who can dance would be wanting to give it a miss.
Can you imagine dancing sober in front of tv cameras?
No. cos it's a really really bad idea, and a sober me would identify it as such. That a sober Maybot didn't spot that is a bit worrying.
On the bright side I did enjoy the Russian govt Facebook post comparing May and Maria Zakharova
I have 2 friends with Aspergers and she has that same awkwardness about her that they do.
It's not intended as an insult just an observation.
Her "robustness in the face of adversity" is really just her having no feelings or awareness of what's going on.
edit..my apologies.
Fair enough. I think she's just geeky, calculating and ruthless. The physical thing… I've only seen her at an age where most people are far from fluid and agile.
[ nice edit ]
Sky News is reporting that London has lost its top spot as the global financial centre - https://news.sky.com/story/london-loses-top-spot-in-global-financial-centre-rankings-11495765
Interested to hear what Brexiteers think of this?
Well, we did say in this thread that New York would be the biggest beneficiary of our decision to hamper London. Did we not @teamhurtmore?
Looking forward to the NI solution from the 50 very odd MPs. Pixie dust and an honesty box?
My money is on an unspecified technological solution. Why this lot are not laughed out the room at every opportunity is beyond me.
They seem to be going for the honesty box approach. Without the pixie dust or technology.
At first glance it looks awfully similar to the solution that has been proposed and rejcted before. What's new?
I have 2 friends with Aspergers and she has that same awkwardness about her that they do.
It’s not intended as an insult just an observation.
I have aspergers and I would tend to agree. Mine is fairly mild and about the same level as Mays I would say.
Level of awkwardness, lack of emotion or ability to really have fun
My money is on an unspecified technological solution.
My money is on 'Stars wars' style missile shield and an 'expeditionary force'.
Kelvin, what we actually had was a gross exaggeration of the impact on London with overstated claims re job losses etc. So thanks for the link - the single word “slightly” in the link falsifies such nonsense and supports my view. It’s is also interesting that the fortunes of various Eu centres has been mixed reflecting my view (and more importantly the eu’s own view) that no other EU centre can easily replicate the combination of advantages enjoyed by London in the ST. We can also see that the more dynamic changes relate to Asia and NY ie not a Brexit effect
trickles not floods....
its great to have sensible perspectives reinforced after all the exaggerations. Let’s hope this continues
So, very real damage. And we haven't left yet. Understood.
No, v limited impact, banks well prepared and ultimate losers are Europeans who will have reduced supply and higher costs of finance.
still misunderstood other than the timing observation
THM: "ultimate losers are Europeans"
Z/Yen Global Financial Centres: "Rivals within the EU for financial services business currently in the UK were among the cities making the greatest strides. [...] Zurich, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Vienna, and Milan moved up the rankings significantly. These centres may be the main beneficiaries of the uncertainty caused by Brexit."
Hmmm....tough choice who to believe here.
But is there anything magical about the City of London? It's not an industry which needs to be close to a coal seam, port or food source. It has a highly mobile workforce which for the most parts just need broadband and a Spearmint Rhino nearby.
I suspect the Banks will be 'getting on their bikes' shortly if it saves/makes them money.
Europeans who will have reduced supply and higher costs of finance.
And the market will simply sit by and watch? I suggest you head to the North of England and see what happens when an industry finds itself in the wrong location.
Hmmm….tough choice who to believe here.
Don’t forget he’s a very important figure in ‘The City’ and the prognosticator of prognosticators.
Capn feel frree the look at the rankings
yes leku and acknowledged by EU commission - in their words it’s not a zero sum game
in the words of those with the most to gain:
Brexit can hardly be considered a ‘zero sum’ game, in which financial service activities could be relocated from the UK into the EU27 without any raising costs. This finding relates to the loss of ‘margin pool benefits’ and the ‘ecosystem’ advantage of the City of London, which can be found in the peculiar concentration of organisations, human re- sources and economies of scale in the City of London.
they go on to quantify the increased financing costs too. Still feel free to ignore as is doesn’t fit the doomsday narrative
The North, Midlands and South Wales is full of coal miners who assumed they had jobs for life too.
Shit happens. Markets / businesses respond.
JPMorgan Brexit plans now 'past point of no return', with as many as 4,000 staff set to move from UK
But it's not happening, right? Nothing to see here.
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Brexit can hardly be considered a ‘zero sum’ game
Exactly. It's a negative sum game - overall everybody loses.
They do - BNP Paribas increasing their investment in London to take advantage of others being distracted by noise.
Banks scaling back estimates of job relocations
you are correct
On the plus side, for those inclined to brinksmanship, Hague is warning that if we get to a no-deal Brexit we will probably choose to stay and the EU will find a way of accommodating that.
Bring it on. 😜