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We could compare ourselves to the EU countries, give us a reasonable idea.
We could compare ourselves to the EU countries, give us a reasonable idea.
Obviously they're going to suffer with the mighty UK not holding them up.
b r until we know the nature of our future access to the single market I thing guesstimates are likely to be little overall value outside understanding the sensitivities involved. But yes, the result will be a GDP loss of high single digit/low doubly digit over a decade versus the status quo. But then we have the further complication is wha will the EZ look like - not the current structure clearly, but what and how long will it take to see sense? Who knows?
Thats a scenario TMH just as is mine which is that we benefit from a focus on high growth Asian economies and the US whilst the EU continues it's downwards spiral.
I see Holland banned the Turkish Foreign ministers plane from landing and this following a similar spat with Germany. There goes the migrant deal agreed with the EU, just as the weather is improving and the sea crossings pick up again.
I thought Junker's analogy of the UK getting back on the boat was pretty poorly chosen given the levels of migrant drownings
We already trade with the other nations.
The only difference now is the we have made trade with our biggest partners more expensive and more difficult and we have reduced the attractiveness of the UK as an investment decision. None of this makes things better. All very stupid really,
Stil we will survive.
the EU continues it's downwards spiral
What downward spiral?
we benefit
Is that the royal we again Jambalaya.
And I understood the EU's GDP growth rate is on an upward trend.
[I]b r until we know the nature of our future access to the single market I thing guesstimates are likely to be little overall value outside understanding the sensitivities involved.[/I]
Ok, so worse-case is WTO (assuming we'll be able to take advantage of THEIR allowances...) at double digit and best-case is something south of what we have now at high single digit. That'll make the self-employed NI fiasco about the equivalent of only one midge when out in the Highlands compared to the hurt the UK's going to go though.
THM once the deal is done I'll be expecting you to predict the impact 🙂
Even the Daily Trash is getting nervous now.
[img][url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3872/32542612554_bbfb3020f0_c.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3872/32542612554_bbfb3020f0_c.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/RzFoWN ]_95117940_mail_front[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/82598458@N05/ ]jamesanderson2010[/url], on Flickr[/img]
well it is the Mail so im sure its all bullshit
but yeah like I said, I have no faith in the MPs being able to handle the insanely complicated task
Id initially heard good things about Jo Johnson as science minister and Brexit , But a talk from lawyer who'd been heavily involved in medical and scientific legislation in the EU, something that Britain is by far the dominant partner in , was very frustrated and concerned at his failure to grasp the issues at hand. - I strongly suspect that its reflected in every sector.
Davies as a classic failed minister but spiffing keen Brexiter (so worthy of the job) was always going to be a serious worry for such a important job.
Davies is no idiot, and has some level of principle. He's wrong about Europe and the EU but that doesn't directly make him a bad person.
I'm not saying he's stupid, just blinded by his own Brexit dogma to the complexities and cost of leaving.
DD on Marr along with Becky L-B talking labour economics - which will be worse?!?
DD looks so rough these days
Is it not the plain sailing he envisaged?
Oh dear poor Becky is so lightweight
Seems Fox is now also getting cold feet:
http://news.sky.com/story/liam-fox-says-10799493
[I]Liam Fox has told Sky News it would be bad for the UK if the country failed to secure a Brexit deal with the European Union.[/I]
But, surely he'd been told otherwise by his boss...
[I]The Prime Minister has repeatedly said she would rather walk away without a settlement than agree to a "bad deal".[/I]
The Prime Minister has repeatedly said she would rather walk away without a settlement than agree to a "bad deal".
That's the really absurd thing about her thinking..
Walking away with no deal is the worst case WTO scenario, so whatever deal we can get from the EU will be worse than what we have now but better than walking away.
So what does she consider a bad deal looks like considering the worst outcome is no deal lol?!
Unless she's expecting the EU to offer a worse deal than walking away, in which case we walk away?
Either I'm missing something or she's in cloud cookoo land.
It's utterly bonkers. She's trying to play a game of chicken aka mutually assured destruction, but she's only armed with a pop-gun and everyone knows it. The EU existed just fine before the UK joined and it will survive just fine without us. Given the UK's dickish behaviour over many years I'm sure there are many of them who are sick of the sight of us and champing at the bit to get it over with.
I think only one thing has been proved by brexshit, de Gaulle was right when he refused entry to the U.K.
Having watched Sophy Ridge and Marr today the slant I read above I don't recognise, deliberate misquoting of Fox. As the Leave campaign said and Fox repeated a tariff free trade deal is good for both sides and if there isn't one its worse for the EU than us. Thats been twisted into the "quote" above.
The Ridge show had a peice on Leicester a city with a big immigrant population. Not surprsingly the balck and ethnic groups where anti Freedom of Movement, as noted many times they are the ones who suffer from erosion of wages and working conditions. The "too many" quote made an appearence too as well as the fact that its just far too easy for people to come here.
In other news its been noted that we own 16% of the European Investment Bank, thats worth £8bn. We should get rid of that and if they want to move it and their ridiculous marble entrance from London then we should facilitate that. Employees all on cushy low tax deals too.
As I said on the Corbyn thread they have all moved to the back foot over the recent weeks even before article 50 gets kicked off. The grim reality has set in..
if there isn't one its worse for the EU than us.
Is this because they need to be able to import from us without extra tariffs?
Just a thought then: if a French company is buying things from the UK, and there are tariffs placed on UK exports, surely the French company can simply buy stuff from Germany instead? This would actually be good for the EU economy for more than one reason. We on the other hand will face tariffs wherever we import from, whereas before we could import a wide range of goods tariff free.
So perhaps we aren't holding as many cards as you think we are. Assuming that most goods we sell are available elsewhere in the EU, they are under no pressure to give us tariff free access are they?
So TMH in fact no two-speed Europe as Poland blocked the comminque, not yet anyway.
Turkey situation hotting up with fiery words against the Dutch and Germans and riots in Holland after not only was the finance minister denied permission to land another politician who arrived by car was refused entry to her own consulate. What price another migrant crises in 2017 as the weather improves and Turkey backs out of its agreement with the EU ? Erdogan holds all the cards with a German election in the coming months and the Greeks happy to stoke tensions ahead of their July debt repayment.
@molgrips - it's their exports to the UK which are the issue. We are a wealthy country and a big buyer.
I wonder what proportion of say Germany's exports come here?
Britain is a nation of vodka drinkers who wear Nike, prefer to gamble at Ladbrokes and don’t realise Brexit will make life more expensive, according to a consumer survey by HSBC.
😆
[i]@molgrips - it's their exports to the UK which are the issue. We are a wealthy country and a big buyer. [/I]
Hmm, but that would mean the tarrifs WE add would be paid by UK businesses/citizens into the UK Exchequer. Yes that would mean that some other countries could be more competitive but still would impact us, as we're the ones paying the tarrif.
So replacement BMW would just cost me more, BMW aren't impacted.
As I have said many times before its supply/demand/desirability UK folks will pay 10% more for the status symbol of a BMW or siemans/bosch/smeg /merc/audi etc
We as a nation buy "bling" and definie our lives by this, this is a UK trait not a European one and that is the fundamental problem (jesus no one with taste buds drinks proseco) it's not down to numbers it's down to desire. I have worked with very rich French business people but they don't buy shite or expensive cars.
[I]this is a UK trait not a European one[/I]
Nope, the Germans are pretty keen on their bling too.
b r - Member
Nope, the Germans are pretty keen on their bling too
The Astra plant in Luton is saved ! 😉
Fewer BMW and Audi drivers? And those that are left subsidizing the NHS? Is this really a bad thing?
If tariffs are paid to the exchequer hen can they not just reduce taxes to end up at the same place. So we can continue to buy as much as before from the EU. However our own exports will be more expensive to the EU as they won't do this.
Would they drop taxes to account for tariffs? Well, consumer goods becoming much more expensive would make the electorate feel much worse off and make the government look bad, so it could be politically worthwhile..
Anything could happen really, we are completely in the dark.
@molgrips the future is uncertain, EU has tried a number of times to get us to charge full VAT on utility bills. If we want to see examples of what might happen we could just look at the rest of the world who are not in the EU. Germany is an export powerhouse at one stage even exporting more than China in value terms. Thays why they like (for them) an artificially depressed currency in the €. We are Germany's third largest car export market,
As @oldman said a while back in 10 years it will be hard to know how we have done out of the the EU vs in. The same is true these past 10 or 20 years.
A50 trigger this week
As @oldman said a while back in 10 years it will be hard to know how we have done out of the the EU vs in. The same is true these past 10 or 20 years.
there are stats to look at the benfits of EU collaboration in research
they indicate that brexit will be detrimental
https://www.digital-science.com/blog/news/benefits-implications-eu-global-collaboration-uk-universities/
tally ho! its back to the 50s for us!
As @oldman said a while back in 10 years it will be hard to know how we have done out of the the EU vs in. The same is true these past 10 or 20 years.
Fair point.
If we want to see examples of what might happen we could just look at the rest of the world who are not in the EU
Surely for that to make sense we'd have to look at a country with the same economic profile and who's just about to leave a major trading bloc?
In other words, we can't draw any conclusions form looking at other countries. Any country that's like us is already in the EU.
Would they drop taxes to account for tariffs? Well, consumer goods becoming much more expensive would make the electorate feel much worse off and make the government look bad, so it could be politically worthwhile..
You forget that external EU tariffs are often high to protect EU producers, we could easily end up with imports from others sources which are cheaper. Many Africa countries argue that one of the biggest factors holding back their development is the protection tariffs trading blocks like the EU put in place.
A50 trigger this week
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there are (remoaner) studies looking at how other G20 nations trade with the EU
This shows how wrong the Brexiteers are when they say that if the UK leaves the EU without a deal we would trade on the same terms as other major trading nations. They are wrong. The EU does not trade with any member of the G20 without some sort of preferential trade arrangement in place. If the UK were to leave the EU without a deal in place at all we would be in an extreme position that no other major trading nation has voluntarily adopted.
Now I could be wrong on this, but was Davis explaining today than allowing parliament meaning votes was an affront to democracy?
He was wasn't he?
I'm off to read some more Orwell.
Many Africa countries argue that one of the biggest factors holding back their development is the protection tariffs trading blocks like the EU put in place.
Hey Mefty, soon we'll be able to argue the same thing. Yea Brexit. 😀
It's simply not true tha we don't know wha the benefits if memberhsip have been: trade has increased significantly with bith the EU and non-EU thanks to our ability to negotiate effective trade deals, investment has increased, we have benefited from FoM etc. plenty of quantified analysis of the positive impact in terms of %GDP all of which showed that our cost of memberhsip if <1% of GDP was a steal.
Does that suggest an increase in GDP of >1% makes EU membership worthwhile? What has been the actual increase due to membership?