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Just want to report that there has been some comedy gold on the BBC have your say forum tonight.
As you can guess, it was on the take it or leave it deal we have been offered. Which we will take... after "hard negotiation" as usual. Lol
I just want to say that there is nothing sweeter that the taste of angry Brexiter tears. Each a precious little unicorn made of xenophobia and ignorance. 😀
Oh, they doned seem to take it in a nice way when you offer them a hug...
Just an fyi on that last one.
Needed a Brexit vent and that went down nicely tonight. 🙂
Peace be to all.
(Not the Tory party obvs.)
Moggy looked utterly deflated when maitliss confronted him
Pesky facts making Brexiters look stupid, at some point they will have to be honest with the public, maybe.
^^ Was this on news night?
Will go off and watch on catchup if so.
I selfishly loath that "man" moggy mcmoggurus.
A face I would just love to punch.
It would being bring me much joy.
The Mogg-meister was on top form, where we watching the same programme kimbers ?
Mogg The Week - he has his own dedicated Youtube channel 🙂
Anyway good news is it looks increasingly likely May will be replaced by a true Brexiteer shortly
Oh jesus. What's the Latin word for jesus again?
What where he said that these studies must be wrong because they might be using the gravity model of trade that got predictions wrong last time ( despite the predicted downturn being due to consumer & investor confidence crashing as it did after 2008 & nothing to do with gravity models)
It was a brilliant demonstration of him trying to condescend but only exposing how clueless he is.
This was a report from DExU the ministry jambs assured us was being staffed by a flood of patriotic Brexiters.
That Mogg is so popular with a tiny clique of hard core brexies is a great sign of how distant they are from the rest of the country !
Famed of if can find mogg doing anything but lecturing, no other party involved.
What date is the video concerned ? I assumed it was last could of days ?
Anyway good news is it looks increasingly likely May will be replaced by a true Brexiteer shortly
You know, I think that might be an excellent idea. It would kill Brexit for good if Mogg was PM. It would unite Labour properly against it and properly divide the Tories and ultimately lead to us rescinding our A50 letter (open doors and open hearts in Europe you know), prevent that pesky 8% lost growth, help protect jobs in the English Northeast and Midlands.
Best idea you’ve had in ages Jamba. Chapeau.
Incidentally THM, I note that Corbyn has ruled out another referendum, but I think has not ruled out staying in the EU. He’s been very careful with his language here.
Now I tend to agree with no second (third really) referendum. Binary referendums are essentially incompatible with how UK democracy works If the last couple of years doesn’t tell you that, the next few (10?) will as we try to heal the rifts caused by the Brexit campaign and fall out since the vote.
So yes, the way forward to remaining in the EU without a referendum has been left clear. It’s a rocky passage but not unnavigable and (even ignoring the economic and jobs benefits of not leaving for a second) because it would have to rely on consensus building, better for society too.
Another man with good ideas. Jamba and Corbyn in the same basket this morning. Well I never.
The funniest thing about Moggy whinging that a transition turns us into a 'vassal state' is that it was the Brexiters that triggered A50 too soon, with no plan, high on their own genius.
Now the government needs to buy time to polish the turd that is Brexit, in the hopes that it's only a 2% hit not 5 or 8% of our economy we tank.
on R4 this morning, i paraphrase - 'report says brexit will cost the economy' 'government says it won't'
sigh.
'They need Freedom of Movement into the UK to keep pressure off (well delay) other countries like France and Germany who’ll have to take up the slack once it’s shut down.'
I'm sorry, what 'slack' is this?
“In” IGM??? “In”.....
How many times ..... 😉
There’s days THM, when I get the feeling you’re taking the piss, but either I’m too dim or you’re too vague (maybe both) for me to get it.
Today is one of those days.
Stepping away from that, is your reading of Corbyn’s espoused position roughly in line with mine. If not, where has he said otherwise.
Lots about respecting the electorate, but you can change their views.
The Mogg-meister was on top form, where we watching the same programme kimbers ?
A classic response to cognitive dissonance: where evidence contradicts your beliefs, ignore the evidence.
That's you and Mogg, by the way.
IGM - talk of remaining “in” the EU/CU/SM is nebulous. Probably why Jezza uses it - if he did
but it means nothing at all - de nada, rien
as I may have mentioned before, the issues are membership of (voted no) versus across to (what we are negotiating now) - that is all
jezza should be precise. We are not having another ref on membership of the EU. We may have one (?) on the terms of our future access to the SM/CU. Or it may simply be a parliamentary vote.
IGM - talk of remaining “in” the EU/CU/SM is nebulous. Probably why Jezza uses it - if he did
but it means nothing at all - de nada, rien
as I may have mentioned before, the issues are membership of (voted no) versus across to (what we are negotiating now) - that is all
jezza should be precise. We are not having another ref on membership of the EU. We may have one (?) on the terms of our future access to the SM/CU. Or it may simply be a parliamentary vote.
Corbyn is I think explicitly not ruling anything out except a second referendum.
So retaining membership is still on his options list. That is what I meant by “in”.
I trust the rest of the post is understandable now, though you are of course and as always welcome to disagree. (Even though I’m right 😉)
as I may have mentioned before, the issues are membership of (voted no) versus across to (what we are negotiating now) – that is all
I respectfully disagree.
“talk of remaining “in” the EU/CU/SM is nebulous.”
Only if you’re deliberately obtuse and choose to remove context from the statement when it was made.
Given that even the Conservatives recognise that we will be worse off as a country, and that Remain is the best financial option (closely followed by the non-existent Norway option as being "the least worst") why is this ridiculous charade continuing? It would be very simple to revoke A%), and start working to get the country back on its feet.
Wow, as if there weren’t enough posts in this thread without duplicate duplicate duplicate posts.
The forum is having a bit of a moment, methinks.
THM, talk of a "bespoke" deal is nebulous - it means nothing at all, de nada, rien. All outcomes are "bespoke"
Unless you take an existing one off the shelf. Then it’s not bespoke.
Otherwise it means a lot. The Norway option is not really one for us.
"We have been clear..." is one of the great oxymoronic political phrases of our time. It's up there with the mantra of Conservative politicians in the 1980s, "In real terms...".
We have not been clear. We haven't even been clear with our own cabinet.
I reckown the government has taken over the new forum.
So the Brexiteers are now getting them into their now standard foaming-at-the-mouth state about the economic data being leaked
Don't bother with what its telling them, lets just shoot the messenger, eh?
And the political vacuum that is the Maybot has again postponed her next speech on Brexit, as that would involve actually having to make some decisions on what kind of Brexit she's advocating.
And everyone knows that the second she does that is the second either one, of both, factions of here party declare war on her.
So, for now, she retains her tenuous and utterly pointless fingertips-grip on 'power', and puts off the inevitable rats-in-a-sack implosion of the Tory party for another few weeks
Utterly depressing thats this is what our national politics is now hostage too
So the Brexiteers are now getting them into their now standard foaming-at-the-mouth state about the economic data being leaked
Don't bother with what its telling them, lets just shoot the messenger, eh?
And the political vacuum that is the Maybot has again postponed her next speech on Brexit, as that would involve actually having to make some decisions on what kind of Brexit she's advocating.
And everyone knows that the second she does that is the second either one, of both, factions of here party declare war on her.
So, for now, she retains her tenuous and utterly pointless fingertips-grip on 'power', and puts off the inevitable rats-in-a-sack implosion of the Tory party for another few weeks.
Or maybe not...
Utterly depressing thats this is what our national politics is now hostage too
Repetition doesn’t make it right!!! 😉
zokes - on the contrary the use of “in” is only use to mislead the gullible. It’s meaningless
capn - on the contrary ^2. Pushing us to accept an off the shelf deal (Norway, Canada etc) is not in our interests. It is very important that we achieve a bespoke deal - especially given importance of fin services to UK economy - hence it’s not nebulous at all
'the use of “in” is only use to mislead the gullible. It’s meaningless'
so meaningless you go on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on 😉
Steve Baker MP of the DExEU that produced the report having a 'mare defending it in the commons earlier because it isnt to be believed, but it is, but actualy it is, err not
No wonder Davis didnt show up, he gets confused tying his own shoes these days, from the look of him
sorry about the duplicate posts...the link is probably worth reading three times tho 🙂
So binners which bit are you missing?
The EU opens up with you can have an off-the-shelf solution
We reply, thank you, but as you know none of those suits out (or your) future needs. So we need to work on a new version
The EU - ssshhh, we know that but can’t tell the pesky minnows that, or they will be following you. So here’s the deal. Keep it quiet and suck up Michel’s BS for a few months while we sort it out on the quiet
OK - mums the word.
Ok THM, other than remain as members of the EU, what else do you think stay in the EU might mean?
Lets all just bask in the warm glow of brexiters tryng to come up with plausible reasons to ignore their own impact asessments....
swivel-eyed starting to blame Davis for being incompetent, as well as May now!
From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market. Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States. The EEA states only enjoy partial membership, because the EEA agreement does not include a customs union. On the other hand, Turkey’s inclusion in a customs union with the EU does not entail the free movement of services, people or capital. Fundamentally, full membership of the Single Market is predicated upon acceptance of all Four Freedoms.
Norway has access to the SM but it is not in the EU
I agree with the HoL in the importance of the distinction here
of course it will be a bespoke deal , they all are .Canada deal is different to norway , and turkey , japan etc....
doesnt mean it will be a good deal for the UK ;
everyday Brexit is sinking a bit more .
we've always known what bespoke deal the tories want. unfettered access to the single market for goods services and finance with no contributions and no freedom of movement, cos ffs don't they know who we are!
The phrase bespoke is being used to make it sound like we're getting something special. Something that nobody else would ever get, because we're so special.
It can be as bespoke as you like, but there are simply no terms under which the UK can leave the EU without damaging the overall economy.
I’d like a ‘bespoke deal’ with my local pub where I pay half the price for my beer as anyone else, my own private table, with a big squishy chaise Lounge, waitress service, including them nipping our to the nearest Greggs for me whenever I get a bit peckish?
i’ll let Then know. I’m sure they’ll have it all in place for me by the weekend. What, with me being the 6th largest economy on our street and a net contributor.
i might get David Davis to negotiate the whole thing for me, including an impact assessment on my liver
TP - how many countries have done what we are doing now?
The government says it will not publish a leaked report document predicting an economic hit from Brexit.
Brexit Minister Steve Baker said the document was at a "preliminary" stage and releasing it in full could damage the UK's negotiations with the EU.
According to BuzzFeed,the report said growth would be lower in each of three different Brexit outcomes than if the UK had stayed in the EU.
Labour has called for it to be be published and debated in Parliament.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42867668
Imagine being so scared to publish something you would rather admit that documents that should have been done and dusted very early on (given we were trying to start trade negotiations much earlier) are not ready rather than being so politically unpalatable you don't want to publish it.
Bespoke is meaningless. We all know that.
Bespoke means bespoke.
I think the favourite one I have for bespoke deal was suggesting DD shitting on the table and running out is a bespoke deal. Unless your trying to use pedantry to avoid another issue I'm not quite sure why anyone would keep banging on about red white and blue bespoke, hand crafted, better than unicorn deals anyway.
Now back to writing to your MP about releasing the report and why such an important document has not been finished.
It’s meaningless
Stuck record time… operating in the Single Matket, without EU membership, means accepting the rules. Riddle me this THM… during the transition period, that the government has asked for (wisely) and the EI have made it clear we can have, we will operate in the Single Market (and Customs Union), but will no longer be EU members. So, if this is possible for 20 months, then, IF there was political will on all sides, it could be possible for a different time period. In the Single Market… not EU members.
The civil servants who worked on the documents , are they the growns up negociating the deal ??
Why can't I edit my own posts?
Excuse the spelling mistakes… I can't read what I'm typing (teeny tiny text in composition text area), the preview doesn't work, and edit takes me to a coffee cup.
This Kelvin
http://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/forum-update/page/26/#post-9807203
It's broken page numbering like when it doesn't go to the right last page
Ahh, okay… ta.
ahhhh that was actually meant to link to the post explaining the problem but that is on a phantom page too so that is buggered....
Kelvin
It does, correct
They (x2) have, correct
but you tripped up at the last sentance. You are breaking a simple identity. It’s meaningless. Your record won’t skip the crack
We are giving up membership of the EU. We had a vote (or two) on that. We will continue to have access to the SM under conditions yet to be finalised. It’s a one-off, don’t you know. But we won’t be in SM. That we know, barring any major volte face
once you get past the “in” word it becomes rather straightforward
We'll be operating in the Single Market, but won't be EU members. Simple.
Eureka - thanks to our access of course
But don’t forget
<span style="color: #444444; font-style: italic; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; background-color: #eeeeee;">Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— are EU Member States. </span>
Small but important details
Yup, we won't be members, we will be operating in the Single Market, during transition. So in the Single Market. Part of the Single Market. Not members.
Now, if their was the political will, on all sides, we could stay in the Single Market and the Customs union, but not be EU members. You'd be crazy to give up control like that, but it's not impossible… it is just politically ruled out.
their=there
[ How embarrassing. ]
It is a draft document circulated for comment / review and leaked
It is not an impact assesment
It does not contain a scenario directly comparable to the one we are trying to negotiate
It does not take into account UK using mechanisms like universal tariff reduction in areas which we don’t produce goods (this is an obvious win from leavung the EU which imposes numerous high tariffs to protect member states in areas we don’t care about)
It uses the same models which predicted an immediate year long recession and associated significant increase in unemployment the moment we voted to leave
Even in the “worst case” WTO scenario it shows the UK growing substantially
Economists cannot predict accurately what is going to happen 6 or 12 months from now (as shown by Project Armageddon) so to suggest they can do so 5, 10 or 20 years from now is quite ridiculous.
Finally of course we are going to have a bespoke deal, we have ruled out all the off the shelf options the EU has proposed. As Davies says the model is Canada plus plus plus
Which damaging alternative to EU membership would you prefer us to move towards now Jamba? Is it still WTO, or do you now favour a Canada style FTA? With some plus, of course, but plus what… and by what means?
This is brilliant jambas is parroting exactly what Stephen baker said in parliament today.
<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px;">" it shows the UK growing substantially"</span>
"<span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px;">Economists cannot predict accurately what is going to happen 6 or 12 months from now (as shown by Project Armageddon) so to suggest they can do so 5, 10 or 20 years from now is quite ridiculous."</span>
So you trust economists predicting growth or you don't?
🙂
Brexiter logic is a hilarious thing to behold
Seems like a fair amount of effort has gone into producing a document that was never intended to have any useful value then. How does that work?
THM the floor is your and its your specialist subject
The value of economic reports
Go 😉
To be fair on Davis' DExEU economists it's pretty hard to put a cash money value on unicorns
Jamba - you keep believing that now.
"Brexiter logic is a hilarious thing to behold"
If you ever needed to define the word oxymoron, 'brexiteer logic' would be difficult to beat. Hell, flat-earthers make more cogent arguments.
I thought this was quite a good article on the leaked impact reports:
<span style="font-size: 12.8px;"> http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-assessment-leak-government-analysis-brexiteer-opinion-david-davis-eu-uk-theresa-may-a8185121.html
</span>Seemed pretty well reasoned and realistic (and from the brexit voting side!)
'Economists cannot predict accurately what is going to happen 6 or 12 months from now (as shown by Project Armageddon) so to suggest they can do so 5, 10 or 20 years from now is quite ridiculous.'
durr! don't you get it? these predictions are all wrong!
'Finally of course we are going to have a bespoke deal, we have ruled out all the off the shelf options the EU has proposed.'
durr! don't you get it? these predictions are all correct!
one can only imagine that if the report said something like 'worst case = this, best case = that', then it's entirely logical that 'brexiteer case = something much betterer than any of those, with a yacht and a pony to boot'
It's fairly obvious that the government is struggling with reality and seems incapable of acknowledging that it's current course of action will be damaging to the economy.
Meanwhile, people are becoming more entrenched in their divisions. It doesn't bode well for the future, national unity will be a pipe dream for decades at this rate.
NI Customs Union membership or a hard border policed by banshees and unicorns.
And how are the Tories predictions, based on models from the civil service i assume, about austerity going? How many years ago was it the deficit would be cleared?
Indeed. I think that it's fair to say that the current government is in the midst of a crisis of competence, as a result of an ideology first party doctrine. There's a dearth of technocrats when we need them the most.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42884610
So on the Report Publication thing, how can MP's make the right choices going forward if they are not provided with all the relevant information? Or is the plan really to keep people in the dark and then just out shouting surprise or something like that
or
Indeed. I think that it’s fair to say that the current government is in the midst of a crisis of competence, as a result of an ideology first party doctrine. There’s a dearth of technocrats when we need them the most.
Been a long time coming but Brexit, the NHS, the collapse of Carillion, the crisis at Capita. bail outs to Virgin Rail etc.
The dogma that has pervaded british poltics for the last 40+ years is falling apart. As for its replacement, chaos, civil war, division????? Now more than ever we need a one nation party willing to compromise and re think market fundamentalism. What is the plan for the left behind etc.
Just listening to that News Quiz someone posted a link to the other day. Oborne really is Jamby/THM, isn't he :shocked emoticon:
We've had forty years of an economic system that ran out of steam a decade ago. In fairness, that's not a uniquely British malaise, but common to most western economies as the quantitative easing required to ensure that our banking system remained afloat (and thus avoiding a liquidity crisis that would have put millions out of work), has created an asset bubble that has exacerbated the wealth gap. Meanwhile, tax policies common to New Labour and the Conservatives have ladled additional cost upon purchases at the expense of a progressive income tax. This has meant that it's become relatively easy for the ultra-wealthy to shift their assets and liquidity offshore and away from the Exchequer. Against the backdrop of increasing productivity and falling real wages, it's no surprise that resentment has been building.
Politics has become so partisan and tribal that it's extremely hard to find common ground. Both main parties are locked in a fight for survival and a toxic media has contributed hugely to ignorance and misconception about why we're in the current mess. I am concerned that we are only one step away from lurching into authoritarianism if we're not careful.
Meanwhile, the fact that so many myths about the EU are being debunked doesn't seem to make an difference to those who want to leave, despite the painful cost. Part of the problem is that most Leavers don't think that the economic cost will affect them.
So on the Report Publication thing, how can MP’s make the right choices going forward if they are not provided with all the relevant information?
Same story as the "39 sectoral impact reports" really - even the cabinet didn't read them and despite the House ordering their release they were still strangely delayed till after lots of the debates had already happened.
Not great for democracy, no matter which side of the Brexit wall you sit.
"Not great for democracy, no matter which side of the Brexit wall you sit."
Exactly!
PSA - pop over to the sticky forum thread. Aracer has kindly updated the killfile.