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Mefty - coreect I know little about the details. However I know enough politics and I can read. all the investment banks are making plans to move their investment arms out of the UK and germany and France are encouraging them to do so this is the reality. the technical detils are irrelevant - the facts are that the EU investment banking is going to move to EU countries. Its already happening.
You seem to think you can have your cake and eat it - well you cant.
JP Morgan bosses are touring Germany and Poland looking to relocate 2,500 staff, while Morgan Stanley has identified 1,000 sales, trading and legal jobs that could go. HSBC indicated it would transfer about 1,000 trading staff from London to its Paris base on the Champs-Élysées in two years’ time. The chairman of UBS, Axel Weber, said around 1,000 of the Swiss bank’s London employees would be affected by Brexit. Goldman, whose very visible commitment to the capital is taking shape on Farringdon Street, played down reports that half its London workforce was on the move. A final decision is still to be made, but it could send 1,000 jobs to Frankfurt to continue servicing EU clients. As JPMorgan Chase supremo Jamie Dimon said: “It looks like there will be more job movement than we hoped for.” With the loss of passporting rights that let banks sell services across the EU from London, even Lloyds Banking Group, which does the majority of its business in the UK, will need to set up a subsidiary, probably in Frankfurt, so it can hang on to its German and Dutch retail clients.
I know little about the details
Really? You seem to know more than mefty and he's an expert in this area.
Andrea Orcel, the president of UBS’s investment bank, has said that the Swiss bank will “definitively move” some of its staff from London to a country within the European Union following the UK’s vote to leave the currency bloc.
UBS, one of the world’s largest managers of private wealth, previously said that London is likely to see an exodus of finance jobs in the wake of the Brexit vote.
The comments from two of the largest investment banks in the City of London underscore the extent of Brexit-related uncertainty gripping the UK’s financial industry.
For months, there has been widespread speculation that thousands of financial jobs currently based in London could be migrated to cities like Dublin, Paris or Frankfurt, so that the banks affected can continue to offer their services to EU clients.
US bank Citigroup has confirmed it plans to shift some jobs out of London to a rival European financial centre because of Brexit and will make a final decision on the location in the first half of the year.
James Cowles, Citigroup's chief executive for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said the bank had been in talks with governments and regulators in different countries, including Ireland, Italy, Spain, France, Germany and the Netherlands, and was now evaluating all of the options.
It comes as Swiss bank Credit Suisse also confirmed it was looking at various European cities but was still in the early stage of considering alternatives outside of the UK.
[b]However, the European Central Bank has previously warned that Britain would not be able to access the passporting system without remaining a member of the single market and abiding by its rules, which includes the free movement of people.[/b]
Without access to a passport, UK-based banks face a significant barrier when attempting to trade with countries within the European single market.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-4155338/Citi-Credit-Suisse-jobs-London.html
May has ruled out staying in the single market. the EU central bank has said no passporting rights without being in the single market. the investment banks are all making plans to move their EU investment banking out of london.
Need any more facts? Or do you still think you can have your cake and eat it.
"some jobs"
Getting back to some reliable comment at last...progress
Although the outcome of Brexit is not clear, it is clear that only countries that pay into the EU budget, and permit free movement of people from within the EU, currently benefit to any degree from flexible entry into the EU’s financial services single market. Brexit would therefore challenge London’s role as the venue of choice for global firms to conduct their European business.
May is currently negotiating our access to the single market, At what point will people stop making things up?
No FoM. No shared court. Not in the Single Market. No passporting.
Probably wise to accept that is where we are heading. Plan for that eventuality, like all banks effected [b]must[/b] do, but seek to stop it.
Oh this is fun. Still playing the red queen?
Large banks with a presence in the U.K. feel the country's government is not fully receptive to the financial services sector in the wake of the uncertainty surrounding the Brexit vote, an industry source with knowledge of the situation, has told CNBC.
The source, who wished to remain anonymous due to the sensitive nature of the topic, said a wide range of banks, both big and small, felt that while the U.K. Treasury is very receptive to their ideas about a "smooth Brexit", other government departments are less sympathetic
The source further added that a number of banks are planning to move their operations out of London due to the uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
"Banks with large numbers of customer accounts in Europe and banks financing infrastructure projects, bonds and derivatives in Europe are among those looking to move out of London," the source added.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/24/uk-government-receives-warning-over-brexit-banking-exodus.html
Britain's biggest banks are preparing to move out of the country in early 2017 because of fears over the impending Brexit negotiations, while smaller banks are making plans to leave before Christmas, the chief executive of the British Bankers' Association Anthony Browne said.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/23/british-banks-preparing-to-leave-uk-over-brexit-report.html
Indeed Kelvin. May has rules out staying in the single market and accepting free movement of people so no passporting rights so banks will have to move.
Some deluded folk still seem to think the EU will offer a deal but I ask - why would they when they can just poach the business instead?
teamhurtmore - MemberMay is currently negotiating our access to the single market, At what point will people stop making things up?
I thought FoM was non-negotiable? So she's not negotiating about that. Similarly for the ECJ?
Or is FoM negotiable after all?
THM thinks those are May's "pinklines" rather than redlines.
You should realise most senior guys in banks are the some of the most skillful politicians that you will ever encounter, they have risen to the top in a viper pit - treat their public statements accordingly - look for the action, I live in South West London, I am surrounded by bankers, they ain't moving. That is not to say there are no issues, there are, but you really need to understand London as a financial centre. As I type people are making their way to work to service international markets that are open. Europe is important, but if you look at what services require to be passported it is a relatively small subset if we achieve equivalence. And if that doesn't happen, it will be a massive own goal by the EU that will have significant cost to their citizens.
TJ now that you have discovered Google, can you use search tools to get up to date comments eg,
Anthony Browne, CEO of the BBA said: The Government’s commitment to free trade in financial services and a phased process of implementation provides important clarity on the kind of relationship the UK will seek with the EU.“All existing EU member states have a mutual interest in ensuring that there’s a smooth exit and securing post-Brexit arrangements that recognise the close ties between our financial systems. The Government’s support for interim arrangements is essential to ensure there are no cliff-edge effects when the UK leaves the EU.
“We will continue to work with Government and regulators to support their negotiation strategy to agree a new partnership with the EU.”
Nothing is certain. The negotiations haven't started yet. To suggest that we know any details for certain is totally absurd. But then again, absurdity is the name of the game.
All in all, seven months on from the referendum, it is still too early to tell what the real impact on the UK economy has been. Banks and their clients remain in a slightly surreal situation where nothing has changed, nor will it change in the immediate future but where change is imminent. Just how big or small that change is, or how long it will take for that change to have an impact, and how big that impact is, remains unclear.
The BBA very recently !
FOM is relevant to one option for continuing access to the single market. You know that.
May has made it clear no freedom of movement. The EU has made it clear there is no tarrif free access to the single market without the 4 freedoms. the european central bbank has made it clear there will be no passporting rights unless we are in the single market.
therefore either the UK banks lose all the EU business or they move those operations into the EU.
What are you on about its an own goal for the EU - its a win / win for them.
As for the banks moving - its already happening.
Continue sticking your fingers in your ears and pretending its not happening but that does not change the reality on the ground
May is not negotiating anything - another piece of delusion. NO negotiations until article 50 is triggered. there has not been a single piece of negotiation yet.
Negotiations have not even started (despite my sloppy language ^) and will take at least 2 years and yet some of us know the details already. Brilliant !
What are next weeks lottery numbers?
"Alice laughed: "There's no use trying," she said; "one can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said the Queen. "When I was younger, I always did it for half an hour a day. Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
So we can accept that the EU have a win/win or something else. Lets see what they say themselves
“Given the considerable interdependence between the UK and the EU economy and financial systems, [b]it is critical that a workable agreement is achieved that not only maintains high regulatory standards but also delivers growth and jobs across the EU [/b]...[smells like compromise]“As an overriding principle, one can assume that after Brexit, the closer the UK remains to established EU regulatory standards, the greater the degree of access the UK can have to the single market – and vice versa, without prejudice to other considerations (eg the principle of the unity of the four freedoms).
“If the UK does leave the single market and thereby resigns from the four freedoms and the jurisdiction of the court, t[b]hen consideration could be given to tools such as third country/equivalence passporting regime, and this should be taken into account on existing regimes as well as future pieces of financial legislation: eg on securitisation[/b].” [walks like compromise]
Still probably written by some fraudulent Spaniard so lets not trust what THEY say. WE know better already!
That's well over £350m negotiation fees saved, so we can spend it all on NHS pensions. Phew!
Two of the largest investment banks in the City of London have confirmed that some staff will definitely have to move abroad when the UK leaves the EU.
HSBC's chief executive, Stuart Gulliver, told Bloomberg he was preparing to move 1,000 staff from London to Paris.
And Axel Weber, boss of Swiss bank UBS, told the BBC "about 1,000" of its 5,000 London jobs could be hit by Brexit.
Analysis: Simon Jack, BBC business editor
It seems that HSBC wasn't bluffing. The day after Theresa May confirmed the UK will be leaving the single market, HSBC confirmed plans to move 1,000 bankers to Paris.
We always knew how many but today we learned how much business they would take with them from London. Those bankers generate 20% of HSBC's European banking revenue - a number that HSBC wouldn't split out but is in the billions.
Revenue is not the same as profit but the move will dent government tax receipts, as will the loss of income tax from a thousand highly paid investment bankers.
UBS privately acknowledge that whatever happens a significant number of jobs will leave, most probably to Frankfurt, and that process will start soon after the UK triggers Article 50 - the mechanism to leave the EU.
With Britain's exit from the single market confirmed by the Prime Minister, what were once contingency plans are now becoming reality.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38663537
Still in denial about this leavers?
One of Germany’s top banking regulators has warned that London could lose its status as “gateway to Europe” for the banking sector after Britain quits the European trading bloc.
Andreas Dombret, who is an executive board member for the Bundesbank – Germany’s central bank – told a private meeting of German businesses and banks earlier this week in Frankfurt that even if banking rules were “equivalent” between the UK and the rest of the EU, that was still “miles away from [Britain having] access to the single market”.
“The current model of using London as a gateway to Europe is likely to end,” Mr Dombret reportedly said.
How about this - the french activly looking topoach the business? You really think that the EU will offer a deal when no deal is actually better for them?
Some major banks are in advanced stages of planning to shift some operations from London to Paris, France's leading financial regulator has told the BBC.Benoit de Juvigny said that "large international banks" have undertaken the due diligence needed to set up a subsidiary in the French capital.
He also told Newsnight that "many other companies" had lodged informal inquiries about moving post-Brexit.
He expects similar talks to be going on in Europe's other financial centres.
Authorities in Frankfurt, Luxembourg and Amsterdam have said they would welcome banks moving operations from London for when the UK leaves the European Union.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38245646
Manipulation by banksters ..nothing to see here move on.
Negotiations have not even started (despite my sloppy language ^) and will take at least 2 years and yet some of us know the details already. Brilliant !
Strange, you seem to want to shout down anyone who offers a different pov to you, so I guess you feel confident that your opinion is what's going to happen.
I find that very odd.
Some areas there is no room for negotiation.
the 4 freedoms are indivisible to the EU so unless we sign up to them we will not get tariff free access to the single market. May has said free movement of people is not negotiable. therefore we will not have tariff free access to the single market. Therefore there is no negotiation possible on this.
simple.
And if that doesn't happen, it will be a massive own goal by the EU that will have significant cost to their citizens.
Don't forget that the EU is first and foremost a political entity not a financial one. I think it's foolish to interpret the reaction to brexit in purely rationale terms
It's all very opaque.
nickc
The post you quote is also anexample of wishful thinking. there is no reason why investment banks moving to paris and frankfurt is anything but a boon to the EU. They get to continue the access to the funds, they get to tax the profits in their countries. its a win / win for the EU
Progress - only took four pages to get some perspective. We have gone from all the banks in the City of Londing are planning to leave (BS) to some of the banks' staff will relocate to EU (true). So now we have got the "all the banks are leaving" BS cleared up, let's see, what further BS do we have this morning?
Ah, the new one, FOM and FTA. Some new scaremongering and lies. Of the four options for maintaining access to the single market only one (EEA) requires the UK to accept FoM. The other three do not. Since we are seeking a bespoke deal that has elements of two that do not require FoM then this is simply more BS.
On top of that one of four hard line Brexhiteers has already made conciliatory noises aboutt FOM and we haven't even started negotiations,
Still let the BS continue, probably 5 pages until we come back to he truth on this one.
For me we need to look past the bankers and look at business in general.
If Article 50 is issued at the end of March 2017 then we will leave for April 2019 (probably be handy if it's issued 5th April
Win/win means that both sides benefit
TJ sorry to ask for precision here but what you keep referring to are win/lose scenarios on paper which turn out (as any sensible analysts shows including the EU's internal briefing documents that I have quoted) to be lose/lose results in practice. Why would anyone want those?
Good job that those involved in the forthcomeing negotiations are not (largely) petty who feast on winning wrong arguments. They are, above all, pragmatists desperate to keep things semi-functioning - even broken currency regimes and debt burdened states.
Santander are here for domestic UK banking primarily, they own the old Abbey NAtional. Alliance & Leicester and Bradford and Bingley businesses. There is no logical reason why they would want to divest themselves of these domestic businesses simply because the UK leaves the EU.
What staggers me Mefty is the number of posters here who have no idea of these facts.
TJ it's really quite straight forward to organise an EU subsiduary or a JV with an EU based bank [b]if necessary[/b]. You do not have to nor will banks relocate in total. Of course banks have checked the details of setting up subsiduaries or converting branch offices, thats what you do in business. You also keep ignoring the fact that UK banks have been pulling out of European markets as fast as they can (or are able to do without booking large losses) for the past 5-10 years. Add onto this that marketing and management consulting services are tariff and barrier free into the EU.
The EU is very well awre that it needs tye financial services provoded by London and it's very aware that to recreate them elsewhere will require largescale Government investment in regulatroy and other support services. All of this will take a lot of time and the EU/eurozone is stood at the edge of a financial precipice.
As I said there must have been 250,000 job losses in banking since 2009 and most people seemed to have been happy about that (permanent too, those jobs aren't coming back), now suddenly bankers are Remainers best friends ?
TMH used to work for a bank as did I. The world has changed and it's unlikley we will again. Regulatory chnages mean there is far more opportunity outside banking than within.
Br - indeed. Further disasters looming there. Multinationals have production in the UK as we have the least worker protection in the EU and tariff free access into the single market. Once we lose the access then no reason for them to stay here and our rubbish worker protection means its easy for them to close plants.
Even Nissan who were virtually given a blank cheque by May are making plans to leave
TJ Nissan where given nothing other than an assurance the UK was comitted to tariff free trade for manufacturing.
I actually read what the HSBS CEO said, page 4 of his 30 page statement. He said what I posted that they where [b]considering[/b] on the basis of how the negotiations proceed. HSBC recview their global HQ every 5 years, they are always considering their options. Thats what the Execs are paid to do.
By the way Goldman touring Poland was a peach
You should realise most senior guys in banks are the some of the most skillful politicians that you will ever encounter, they have risen to the top in a viper pit - treat their public statements accordingly - look for the action, I live in South West London, I am surrounded by bankers, they ain't moving
This.
Jamba - I did not say they would move ALL of the bank - just the very profitable bits that do EU investments etc and with your usual accuracy you simply forget the regulatory and support services are already in place in both frankfurt and paris
Like all those bits I quoted are saying. So all those ceos etc of these banks are wrong or lying are are they? - want some more quotes from bankers moving out of the UK into Paris and Frankfurt?
Good job.no one is seeking to lose access to the single market.
The fantasies continiue. Odd not to feel embarrassed by positing stuff that is so obviously untrue. Still, nothing new there...
Five more pages of lies about FOM and single market to come....
Jambas we can rejoice. Apparently IB is back to being very profitable rather than a business that earns about half it's cost of capital. The good times are back, wey hey!!!! Bring it on.....alternatively TJ could simply just be wrong again. Shame...
TJ you need to get your head around the value and attractiveness of the UK as a market, ie it's quality. You are brainswashed by the "width" of the EU at 500m people. The EU exports far more to us than we do to them, the UK is the attractive market not the other way around.
What staggers me Mefty is the number of posters here who have no idea of these facts.
Gosh, coming from the fictionmaster, that surely is praise. 🙄 Much in the same way as THM's raw nerve snideyness.
What do you call folk who persist in their delusions despite all the evidence and clear statements?
"HSBC chief executive Stuart Gulliver [b]said it would move[/b] "in about two years' time when Brexit becomes effective".
He said employees involved in activities covered by financial regulation [b]would need to move to France[/b], though other key operations would remain in the City.
No raw nerves here but tired muscles and ribs from laughing? Sadly no answers to my letters yet.
At least TJ is now positing what we have been saying all along to argue that we were/are wrong. It's a laugh a minute.
FoM is going to be epic at is rate...
UBS Chairman Axel Weber said that about 1,000 of the Swiss bank's 5,000 employees in London could be affected by Brexit, while HSBC Chief Executive Stuart Gulliver said his bank[b] will relocate [/b]staff responsible for generating around a fifth of its UK-based trading revenue to Paris.