[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I like that Del. And with the Tories hemorrhaging membership, it might even be possible.

That’s Nick Clegg’s point in his book about stopping brexit. That and joining the Labour Party.

strong performance of Uk manufacturing

Hmmm: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42779699

We'll also skip-over the chronic under-investment in skills, poor productivity and a workforce demographic that falls over a cliff in 10-15years. I work in a sector where we've had to offshore work because there isn't the capability in the UK to do it.

"Yes it’s true Japan doesn’t benefit from freedom of movement with the EU. Instead it’s an insular failing country heading into a demographic death spiral. Perhaps not the best example for a brexiteer to use."

One that has just agreed a massive FTA with the EU that the UK will not benefit from.

How good a FTA will be get with the US...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42784380

i note farage was on 4 this morning bemoaning we're going to get brexit in name only.
sure hope so nige!

Economic confidence is suffering due to the UK’s impending withdrawal from the EU, Philip Hammond has said, as he pointedly knocked down demands from Boris Johnson for a “Brexit dividend” for the NHS, in a sign of growing divisions within the government.

His comments came in response to the decision by the International Monetary Fund to downgrade its forecast for UK growth in 2019, the year when the UK leaves the EU, to 1.5%, against an earlier forecast of 1.6%.

It upgraded its forecasts for much of the rest of the G7 on the back of a strengthening global economy. Germany was upgraded from 1.5% to 2%.

Frankly brexit in name only will be shit (assuming it means still in SM/CU and paying in with no say in the rules along the lines of norway). It's time for the adults to stand up and stop the nonsense.

Latte sales would collapse

Only one word to describe the IMF change - huge

But is it the least shit way of Leaving?

How ever we Leave, it won't be in a manner that the majority of people would prefer over maintaining membership (and keeping control).

The government are negotiating the least shit way of leaving.

[b]"This isn't what we [/b](singular) [b]voted for!"[/b]

Only one word to describe the IMF change - huge

I guess this may be an attempt at sarcasm, but a 0.4 percentage point swing between the euro area (+0.3) and the UK (-0.1) compared to their previous forecast seems pretty substantial to me.

And as for "the least shit way of leaving", good luck with that blind faith.

Don’t rely on luck, prefer preparation

Is the Brexit dividend for the NHS 350m a week ?

The chancellor does not see a brexit dividend only losses. ditto the IMF

I think they are best placed to know.

The Chancellor should be a back bench MP, he is finished. May is too weak to sack him.

If the Remain campaign had used forecasts mkre closely matching our economic experience of the last 18 months and the IMF’s (highly revised upwards numbers) Leave would have won by an even larger margin

Chris as Gove said NHS should have been given an extra £100m a week immediately post the Referendum and Chancellor should have laid out plan the other £250m a week starting in April 2019 assuming WTO tariffs and no money to the EU

What do you think about Carney Jamba?
Are we allowed to keep him?

Foolish child Jamba. Now go back and do your sums properly.

[quote=igm ]Foolish child Jamba. Now go back and do your sums properly.

anyone got a spare bus?

Is the Brexit dividend for the NHS 350m a week ?

Frankly brexit in name only will be shit (assuming it means still in SM/CU and paying in with no say in the rules along the lines of norway).

still better than Jamba's wet dream of no deal and WTO, whichever way you cut it.

[quote=jambalaya ]The Chancellor should be a back bench MP, he is finished. May is too weak to sack him.

This is on the basis that he's a remainer? Yet somehow he's still there jamba - how does that make you feel? 😆

If the Remain campaign had used forecasts mkre closely matching our economic experience of the last 18 months and the IMF’s (highly revised upwards numbers) Leave would have won by an even larger margin

Of course, because it was facts which were at the centre of the Leave campaign.

Chris as Gove said NHS should have been given an extra £100m a week

Oh no he didn't.

Look, behind you.

(I presume I've got the tone of this right...)

I am still confused Jambalaya, Surely if the UK signs all those trade deals, there won't be any tarifs income. To have both is a bit like having your cake and eating it ??

Yep. The UK would need to raise taxes to compensate.

I note that the UK gdp growth is trailing the eurozone by 1% - so almost exactly in line with the remainer predictions.
Q3-Q3 annual figures so it may have suddenly recovered in Q4.

Yup - contrary to all the leavers hysterical outpourings on here the remainers predictions are all coming true or have already come true. ( bar a large increase unemployment and there are other reasons for that rise being hidden ( rise in zero hours contracts and low paid parttime work that doen't take folk of benefits but does take the out of the unemployment count)

covered before - v diff stages in cycle. Direct comparison ^ misleading at best

TJ you claimed that the economy would contract by 4% before so 1.5% stable growth is a HUGE upgrade to your expectations 😉

Hi THM - more bullshine aimed my way?

Not you, just your incorrect statements. Keeps folks busy.

*points and laughs*

teamhurtmore - Member
...diff stages in cycle.

Genuine question. Given that they are not in the same brexit scenario as uk does the idea that we are on the same cycle but at different points still hold and if so why(otherwise you'll just leave an obtuse one or two word answer :wink:)?

TJ you claimed that the economy would contract by 4% before so 1.5% stable growth is a HUGE upgrade to your expectations

I don't think he said it would contract 4% before we left, did he?

We haven't left yet. Do you really think all the impacts have rippled through? Or are we just getting started? Or have we even yet to start?

Kilo - that is a very perceptive question, to which the answer is somewhere between depends and no one knows.
We may know in 10-20 years time.
Anyone who argues they know should check the definition of hubris.

Yes. We recovered much earlier, had a longer recovery and peaked earlier. The EA businesss cycle is lagging the US and the UK largely because their policy response (including stealing) came later.

Note the (correctly) bullish scenarios for Europe also include a positive outlook for major trading partners so the risks are obvious. Growth likely to peak in 18 but stay rel strong in 19. But don’t forget they need us too..... 😉

But don’t forget they need us too

For now, maybe. But will they gradually move away from using our goods and services as it just becomes too much bother to mess about with customs and tariffs and the risk of exchange rates?

Marginally

Forget the extreme arguments - we both need each other and in the end that will come through

And that ultimately is the fallacy of Brexit.

We know Brexshit is shit - by definition. The job of the politicians (and the smart people doing the real work behind them) is to make it less so. Then we can see how to adapt to the new world

Remember the Euro Zone is going to be very different in the future. It’s current structure cannot survive

we both need each other

To what extent though?

What do we make that people in France or Germany don't also make? When a German company is bidding to supply a French company, they will be in a more favourable position won't they? So that German company will then invest in increasing production which will be lost in the UK? Wouldn't it be ironic if that resulted in a brain drain *out of* the UK?

Or, if the UK is now on the same footing as the USA or China, we will have lost a possible competitive advantage (i.e. ease of trade) that would have differentiated us against those outside the EU?

Of course, this is why soft Brexit is so important. You seem rather confident that this will happen, THM, don't you?

I'm keen to find out:

1) What happens to imports to the EU from the UK in the next 5-10 years
2) What happens to the EZ
3) Is there possibly going to be a Domino effect? Will this be like the end of the Roman empire with big states breaking away leaving a rump?

jambalaya - Member

even larger margin

Word games are good, aren't they? The margin was tiny but by saying "even larger" we can insidiously suggest that it was large

I did not say the economy would contract by 4% before we left. I said that it would tip us into recession as a result of leaving. given we have gone from top of g7 for growth with low inflation to bottom with rising inflation its bang on track for what I and many others predicted.

But no - the rabid tories and leavers have to misstate about what others have siad in order to bolster their untenable position.

At the moment many companies are holding on frantically hoping that the government scrambles some sort of deal. when they don't as is likely then they will all leave the or scale back production enourmously once they cannot use the UK as a low wage low tax low worker protection entry point into the EU.

Remember - we haven't even left yet. The recession is coming - have no doubt about it.

You can go back and check. You misunderstood what the Project Fear forecasts were saying and were very adamant about it. It’s 000s of pages back.

We are slowing down as a natural part of the cycle. Brexit makes the slowdown more severe but there are balanced eg £ which after a lag has an impact in exports - already seen - but with the downside of inflation and pressure on real wages

That’s the beauty of economics - it confounds those who have monochrome filters. It’s much more dynamic and interconnected than that

‘Tis almost like systems engineering in that sense THM

😉

Perhaps. I will take your word for that 😉

One thing it isn’t is exact....

[img] [/img]

[url= https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-23/brexit-bulletin-ask-the-turks?utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit ]Bloomberg roundup[/url]

That’s a HUGE downgrade. A full 0.1% in 2 years time. Imagine all the variables behind that.

Where’s captain mainwaring when you need him? Don’t panic....

About 0.7 against everyone else over two years doing it by eye.

I’ll let others decide if that’s HUGE or whether to panic.

It's not unexpected really.

If I read correctly - late and on train - this shows how they have changed their forecasts since Oct

So a tiny adjustment / about as small as you would do. Which given all the potential risks iis

HUGE
Negligible - you decide

Given just how HUGE the catastrophic downgrade is it’s surprising that the IMF makes only a osssing comment about the negotiations in the accompanying brief. How odd when it’s such a HUGE thing?

You're embarrassing yourself. Carry on…

How about I post a meaningless chart without reading the axes ? That WOULD be embarrassing

(Caveat left glasses at work so feel free to correct me if I read it incorrectly. You obviously think it’s important and I would hate to miss HUGE news )

I'm sure you can spot a pattern. All major economies predicted to do better than previous predictions. Well, nearly all. I'd have thought that we'd also have improved expections personally, in such circumstances, not as good as if we weren't messing around with Brexit (that hardly needs saying)… but I'd still expect our economy to be lifted more by our trading partners doing so well. What do the IMF think is up with us?

It is - our slowdown is mild. Second year after peak and still growing 1.5% even after HUGE diowngrade

You did read the axis??

Why the downgrade, when our trading partners have upgrades? Why did the IMF not upgrade our expectations as well, given the additional trade you would expect in this situation? Where is our lift? What do the IMF think we have wrong, so as not to also be upgraded?

Uncertainty that’s why.

You don't think that is factored into the previous forecast? Why do the IMF not expect us to get a lift from our trading partners doing better than expected?

Hey Jam, it's not done and dusted yet.  Financial jobs are still at risk depending on the deal.

Damning piece in the FT today from Philip Stephens.

Theresa May’s new Brexit strategy: jump first, argue later

"Voting to leave the European Union has cost Britain more than £200 million a week in lost growth, the governor of the Bank of England believes. Mark Carney indicated during a private breakfast meeting with business leaders in Davos…"

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit-costs-200m-every-week-in-lost-growth-says-carney-mxr5cwkhf

But… even if we're on a go slow, if the expectations are raised for our major trading partners, then you would expect us to get a lift from their expected extra success… and expectations for us would also be raised… even if less so. Why have the IMF lowered their expectations for our growth, when they have raised their expectations for everyone else? That's not normal. What are they thinking?

“Voting to leave the European Union has cost Britain more than £200 million a week in lost growth, the governor of the Bank of England believes. Mark Carney indicated during a private breakfast meeting with business leaders in Davos…”

He's being conservative. The original piece of research benchmarking our economy to a basket of others and making forward projections on the basis of referendum (note not no decisions, as there aren't any yet). puts our reduced GDP at £300M per week on where it would be expected to be. It's a nice piece of research.

https://voxeu.org/article/300-million-week-output-cost-brexit-vote

If it's a "race"… it's sort of like a three legged one… but with everyone tied together with elastic… our results will always be tied to the results of our biggest trading partners to some degree… revising predictions for all our trading partners upwards, yet not revising ours upwards… suggests something unusual in the IMF peep's thinking… can anyone guess at what that is? Or offer up some handy links to those who understand their models and thinking more than us humble members of the public do?

"He’s being conservative."

Many articles that report this suggest that is quite deliberate.

With sincere apologies to all concerned, this thread is turning into the analogy of two bald men fighting over a comb.

None of the promises made by Leave look achievable, given that Liam Fox's dept is dogged by staffing issues, David Davis is clearly out of his depth and seems to be giving indications that he wants to quit, Boris is telling lies again and Gove is suspiciously quiet. Meanwhile, the best that soft Brexiteers/Remainers hope for is the resumption of a status quo, there's no political aspiration towards making a commitment to remedying our long standing infrastructure issues that precipitated the referendum result.

We all agree that our economy has stalled when competitive economies are experiencing strong growth, we also all agree that Hard Brexit will result in us trying to bargain trade deals from a position of vulnerability and Soft Brexit will mean no seat at the EU Parliament.

Laughing stock?

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/25/business/theresa-may-brexit-davos.html

GDP per week, wtf is that ? Don’t (deliberately) confuse GDP with Government revenue or spending. GDP growth has slowed due to uncertainty, my call is for a very substantial bounce back when we see the nature of our future relationship.

Who really knows how much potential growth we have lost by being constained by the EU, how many billions in artifically high prices have consumers paid for goods ? We do know Open Europe thinks EU regulation cost us over £170bn in a 10 year period and they are a pro-EU organisation.

In other news Steve Mnuchin (US Treasury Secretary) said in Davos that a lower dollar is helping US economy boosting local producers. Sound familiar.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

That's like saying tadpoles are getting eaten by bigger tadpoles.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

No going off message. They can't admit there are no unicorns, that would be a sacking offence.

Most importantly Hammond got a good slapping from Number 10 tonight saying his remarks where incomsistent with May’s Florence speech.

Who really knows how much potential growth we have lost by being constained by the EU, how many billions in artifically high prices have consumers paid for goods ?

I heard this nonsense recently. I love how these idiot brexiters are now championing the "ripped off" British consumer, without even thinking about British industry and agriculture potentially being destroyed by cheap imports.

With sincere apologies to all concerned, this thread is turning into the analogy of two bald men fighting over a comb.

Then just imagine the discussions going on between government ministers, and those around them!

<span style="color: #444444; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto;">my call is for a very substantial bounce back when we see the nature of our future relationship.</span>

There are 150 reasons not to rely on your call.

<span style="font-size: 12.8px;">"</span><span style="color: #444444; font-size: 12.8px;">Who really knows how much potential growth we have lost by being constained by the EU, how many billions in artifically high prices have consumers paid for goods ?"</span>

... not you...

We do know Open Europe thinks EU regulation cost us over £170bn in a 10 year period and they are a pro-EU organisation.

Since 1998, regulation introduced in the UK has cost the economy £176bn. Of this, £124bn, or 71%, had its origin in the EU

For every £1 of cost, EU regulations introduced since 1998 have only delivered £1.02 of benefits

As for them being Pro EU , they started of euroscpetic became a bit more pro - in a cameron style at distance two speed EU and remained neutral on the vote as they were divided on opinion internally so took no position.

One day we may see you make a statement that is not inaccurate, that day is not today.

The ICM survey, conducted as part of a Guardian reporting project, found 47% of people would favour having a final say on Brexit once the terms of the UK’s departure are known, while 34% oppose reopening the question.
Excluding the roughly one-fifth who do not have a view gives a lead of 58% to 42% for a second referendum, showing rising interest in the idea as concern grows over the direction of recent negotiations.

The increased backing has come from both sides of the debate, with one-quarter of leave voters in favour of having another referendum on the final deal.

* not a dig at their intellect 😉

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jan/26/britons-favour-second-referendum-brexit-icm-poll

UK growth stronger than expected, again

You don’t have to rely on my predictions, you can ask 4 Economists and get 5 different answers

You Remainers are going to have to skip the “economic disaster” line of argument as it’s hasn’t happened and it’s not going to happen, even under a WTO scenario. Even Cameron has eaten humble pie and admitted to Mittal he was wrong with the doom and gloom

So… worse that if we'd voted to remain… but could be even worse… what a win.

I dont disagree that camerons doom and gloom as overstated to the point of just being daft scaremongering
I also agree there is enough there for either side to say see I told you [Growth was the slowest since 2012 last year and B of E saying we are not growing as fast as the others]
The doom and gloom merchants are as detached as the everything is positive merchants who rejoice at weak good news.

Jambas there was a certain irony that the gdp data today beat expectations by the samr HUGE amount as the downgrade in Kelvin’s IMF graph above!!

HUGE I tell you

been a good week all in all. Finally seeing some sense coming out of some Europeans, the united front cracking and even some vaguely sensible stuff on the financial services debate

.