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It isn't, correct. Glad that's cleared up.
Who knows what 2020 will bring?
Its untrue to claim that well leave the ECHR.
Anyway I am going to watch PMQ - haven't heard from Jezza for a while
1. She was in favour of remain [b]She kept really quiet[/b]
2. The Gov was in favour of remain [b]and they are also in favour of a lot of things[/b]
3. She is executing something that set didn't want but the majority of votes for [b]with her own slant on things, a lot of interpretation going on in there[/b]
4 She is a long standing critic of EU courts and human rights from them as it kept getting in her way of doing things because she never bothered to check if it was allowed....
Oh and 2020 is not the real problem it's what gets lumped in the "Great Repeal Bill" of stuff we don't like and we have a majority that is the real issue.
She may be
Still that doesn't mean that Brexit affects out membership of the ECHR. It doesn't. Simple.
2020 is important if it is true that May wants to ADD membership of the ECHR to the manifesto for the next GE
Otherwise it's a red herring and mere scaremongering. QED
The article b_r linked to states:
"The Prime Minister is understood to be backing plans to “lift and shift” human rights enshrined in the European Convention and write them into UK law".
It cites the issue of a couple of terrorists it was difficult to "deal with" because the ECHR got in the way. So the change which affects us all is to cover a vanishingly small number of incidents.
It's a rollin thing though, what gives you confidence that TM is acting in the best interest of the entire country at this point? Not many think she is or the party/idiots she leads. With no effective opposition this is a really dangerous time for the country, it gives a higher level of power to one side and in this time of major change where the main aim is to shut people out that is never going to end well.
She is getting on with things while others want to ignore reality
Agree that the opposition is weak, especially it's leadership but let's not forget this government has a slim majority and is in a quite weak position. In the case of Brexshit, the Oppo agreed with the Gov and made the majority significantly higher.
May was never a commited remainer, she has always been and always will be a political opportunist.
I think it is you THM, who is ignoring the reality of what May wants to achieve.
Anyone else fit that description - the "leader" of the Oppo for example?
Simple fact is: the government promised to respect and implement the result of the vote. That is what is happening. Call it what you like....it doesn't change anything
On the contrary, I am one of the few remainers who is prepared to accurately represent what May is doing. You, in contrast, prefer to exaggerate for effect. I don't think this helps OUR case. Hence my reference to the FT article yesterday
ah if in doubt whataboutery...
Do you trust TM? Would you leave her the keys to your house (bad question she has a copy and the alarm codes and use of your web cams)
reminds me of the news quiz last week, you wouldn't trust the Trumps to feed your cat while you were on holiday it would end up dead or pregnant. TM would probably use it for a fabric sample for her next outfit
Offline for a bit. Will catch up later 🙂
I place little trust in politicians, hence I am always surprised by calls to have them controlling more of our economy. Madness in my mind.
Again refer to my reference to FT article yesterday. It mirrors my views well.
Back up the thread a bit but we do a fair bit of risk management and mitigation for clients (not moving businesses but risk is risk just like Brexit is Brexit)
Making a potential structural change to a business process due to a potential change is usually based upon hedging of bets v cost
So first question will be "if this change occurs what is the impact" and in this case it is potentially significant to certain banks. Second question what is the cost of mitigating that risk both in people and finances and in this case the banks can afford to relocate and take people with them. The last question is likley do want want to leave any resources in the high risk place to retain some foothold if the change does not occur?
Looking at it from this perspective with my risk "knowledge" I think all banks that may have a issue will probably take a 60/40 split. They will move 60% + of activity into the EU and leave a footprint behind- if Brexit is grim they will slowly move the remaining business to the EU if it's good they will leave the footprint in place.
Gulliver was referring to the issue of business that is directly covered by EU legislation. IIRC this account for 20% of HSBC's revenues (although this could be 20% of their markets revenues, not 100% sure).
So he is referring to contingency plans for that aspect of their bussiness. Moving people is one solution but by no means the only one, As ever banks have ways of getting round thus eg, back-to-back trading etc
I have told my MP if banks / financial services want a special deal with the EU THEY should pay for it. I'll wager they'll shut up pretty promptly. Moving their staff to another EU country will add 25-30% to staff costs
W T Actual F???
So hang on. Banks who had nothing to do with the EU vote, but could suffer severe consequences, should then pay for the privilege to be able to continue to do business as they have done, and if they can't then they should be expected to swallow a 25% to 30% increase in staff costs (plus countless other costs)
You are an absolute fantasist.
A comfortable old man that says screw everyone else, I'm alright jack.
In answer to Wicki a few pages back, I don't see Brits in most European countries having much trouble post Brexit. I think there are about 150 000 Americans of voting age in France despite the bureaucratic obstacles (there was something about how French living Americans vote during the elections). The desire to exclude is one sided, and the being spat on and insulted [url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-latest-a7424396.html ](and worse)[/url]very one sided.
Even Le Pen excludes Europeans from her plans to repatriate immigrants.
What are the reactions to Macrons message to May, i.e. pay up or pay up?
What are the reactions to Macrons message to May, i.e. pay up or pay up?
French Presidential candidate making a comment to appeal to electorate is hardly news and certainly wasn't here - it will be interesting to see if his Trump like campaign succeeds.
Jamba said
TJ what a total load of bollix
The irony in that overwhelms me, Jamba you are such a hypocrite 🙄
This thread gets weirder. Jambas finally ( 😉 ) says something true on Brexshit* and he gets called a hypocrite.
Bizarre!
(* excuse the little joke there Jambas!)
Oh THM you are such a wag, Jamba doesn't know, you don't know. I have a friend who is a banker in Singapore who says the same as TJ and he doesn't know but one thing we all know Jamba is a hypocrite
There's more than one of those
(and I am directly involved, so sorry I know when someone is talking bllx too)
THM yes you do, yes you do
To be fair, he is right in saying the risk is not that great. Banks with existing European operations will rejig if required and this will involve some transfer of staff. J P Morgan has actually been in France longer than the UK: Banks without an EU operation are looking to get approval in another jurisdiction, Ireland and the Netherlands being the most popular based on the guys I know. Where we will miss out is new businesses are unliekly to set up in London until the way forward is clear.
I think the insurance market has more issues.
Indeed mefty but that doesn't scare people enough
I worked for the UK's oldest bank in paris in the 90s as did my wife (for a UK rival), nothing new and nothing new in the Paris/London/Frankfurt rivalry for financial services
I hope the plans of now amis to add 375,000 sq m of new office space to accommodate their new amis anglais are not based on similarly over-hyped assumptions
7 new skyscrapers for La Defence....
amusing marketing tag line: "Tired of the fog? Try the frogs!" Tres amusant
Paris/London/Frankfurt rivalry for financial services
Although we tend to do quite well in this one
Brilliant - wasn't Brexit supposed to get rid of the all the nasty foreigners?
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/we-will-need-eu-migrants-for-years-admits-davis/ar-AAncHVo?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=spartandhp
Done a few pages back!
Balls - that'll teach me to only look back a couple of pages 🙂
Still good to get back on track - its an important trend that indicates a certain frame of mind (compromise) on a key issue (immigration) from a hardliner (DD)
The divorce bill headlines are going to be q something in next few weeks. Junker is prioritising this it seems, with Barnier being the good cop to his bad cop.
Who blinks first - reckon the EU have more trumps than we do.....
Lord Kerr (author of Article 50) on Brexit in House of Lords earlier: "The Bullingdon boys will be just fine, others won't be".
Lord Kerr (author of Article 50) on Brexit in House of Lords earlier: "The Bullingdon boys will be just fine, others won't be".
I not sure why this guy is given lots of credibility, he is a diplomat who served at the EU, if he was any good at drafting, a lot less money would have been spent on lawyers.
jambalaya - MemberHSBC said it was considering moving up to 1,000 roles - nothing confirmed about it at all
ORLY?
[url= http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4132406/HSBC-1-000-jobs-Paris-London.html ]http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4132406/HSBC-1-000-jobs-Paris-London.html[/url]
"Activities covered specifically by European financial regulation will need to move"
[url= http://www.euronews.com/2017/01/18/hsbc-to-move-1000-staff-from-london-to-paris-after-brexit ]http://www.euronews.com/2017/01/18/hsbc-to-move-1000-staff-from-london-to-paris-after-brexit[/url]
"We will move in about two years time when Brexit becomes effective”
Yep, will of the people...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/23/theresa-may-brexit-will-of-the-people
Ta northwind - you of course must be talking cobblers as well tho as in Jambaworld its all roses and anything that shows what a disaster leaving the EU is going to be must be wrong
Glad to hear some realism from Barc CEO today instead of exaggerated nonsense
Barclays will keep the bulk of its operations in London after Brexit, [b]even if the UK loses access to the single market,[/b] chief executive Jes Staley says.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39062975
From the horse's mouth
Yes that's a fabulous vote of confidence in brexit britain that a british bank will not move all of its activities, though he didn't manage to say that they would not move a substantial (albeit minority) part.
[quote=teamhurtmore ]Glad to hear some realism from Barc CEO today instead of exaggerated nonsense
Barclays will keep the bulk of its operations in London after Brexit, even if the UK loses access to the single market, chief executive Jes Staley says.
> http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39062975
From the horse's mouth
Barclays is a very UK centric bank workforce wise. Their Investment Bank workforce only makes up about 15% of their total workforce, and they will no doubt be spread globally. So the headcount impact for Barclays in the UK would be small, but I'm betting the financial impact is big
Barclays’ international unit, which includes its investment bank, increased pre-tax profits from £2.3bn to £4.1bn, as revenues rose 9 per cent to £15bn.
https://www.ft.com/content/d1286f4c-f99f-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3b65
So there may not be a massive shift in employees, but if they start earning their international income primarily outside the uk, then surely the uk tax take will ultimately fall?
Glad to hear some realism from Barc CEO today instead of exaggerated nonsense
From that I got that there is a subsidiary in Ireland which will probably allow them to conitue with their current, albeit small (only 8 countries) business in Europe and a Credit Card company, which is probably stand alone.
So Barclays aren't bothered because they have little interest in Europe. I bet they're glad they didn't get involved with ABN AMRO.
I read the FT first thing thx and am aware that Barc earns 50% of income from UK
The point is simple - we don't need to massively exaggerate what banks are planning (and it all depends on what happens with passporting etc)
We should stick to facts not BS and hyperbole. The baton seems to have been passed from the Brexshiteers to the Remoaners. Its sad.
I read the FT first thing thx and am aware that Barc earns 50% of income from UK
God forbid, I wasn't trying to tell you anything, just concluding that brexshit isn't going to have such a profound effect on them. So, it's not much of a story in reality.
I wonder whether we should look the other way and start to see what'll happen when/if Santander pull out.
We know the answer to that, they remain committed to the UK. Botin said so last month.
And you trust her?
How has the family got on with their fraud charges?