What happens if no alternative trading agrreement is in place on 3/19?
It depends, not least on… if we have an exit agreement, and what it is… if we have agreed a transitional period or delayed exit date… and if we have the same government with the same "will of the people" "no chance to correct our course" policy.
Do you want us to try and answer for all possible scenarios that include "no alternative trading arrangement on 3/19"?
Some pre morning coffee sketches…
- No exit agreement or FTA at deadline, both sides prepared to delay exit in order to continue to discuss both, and prevent the worst damage to both sides.
- No exit agreement or FTA, we leave EU in dispute of our international treaties signed, the EU leaders are incensed enough to apply punitive sanctions and tariffs and apply to WTO for resolution, no falling back on WTO rates unless/until WTO makes ruling and appeals fail.
- Exit agreement but no FTA, parliament votes against exit agreement, either because the high financial burden makes it look like the EU are being unfair (and voters were told one of the main reasons for Brexit would be stopping money going to EU) or because the lack of any FTA is just too damaging to constituents interests. PM seeks a mandate to press on, or MPs resign and force byelections that get fought on issues surrounding government competence, at a time when emergency measures are being sought to keep companies afloat or in the country.
What any of this has to to with me, I have no idea… I'd be looking to our politicians and civil servants to steer us though all this somehow. That doesn't stop me calling for either a way to stop us leaving the EU, or for us to leave in a way that minimises barriers between us and the EU, for both trade and people.
Far from it, a deal is looking MORE likely than it did over the weekend with the Germans making positive overtones - we really do have stay in the real world here not some imaginary angry place that clouds judgement. Not that this is likely in some quarters.
But Cap'n, you point towards the issue that I was getting at. If I understand correctly, you appear to be assuming that if we have no deal them we all look a little stupid but defaul to the staus quo. WE DON'T.
One of the two key reasons for the SC ruling was the fact that A50 is irrevocable. This is not an exercise, this is the real thing. As someone said recently, "We ARE leaving e EU, Brexshit means Brexshit."
So to answer my own question, what happens if there is no alternative trading agreement in place is that we default to trading under WTO rules. We do no carry on with the existing ruls - that is a misunderstanding. IMO relying on WTO rules is the least attractive of all the available options for continuing ACESS TO the single market in terms of liberalising trade even if it is the one that gives maximum fake control.
So is is the outcome WE MUST avoid. How do we do that? We DO NOT obstruct the givernment for obstructing sakor nor or political expediance. [b]We ALL HAVE a responsibility to make BREXSHIT work otherwise we end up with WTO.[/b]
So it's time to get out of the fantasy land and engage with the reality of what is in from of us, like it or not.
Edit for X-post, kelvin in relation to your final comment that is what is currently happening. We shall see what the result is but in the meantime we can all make the process work or not work. That is OUR choice and the one for which we take personal responsibility
we default to trading under WTO rules
Or not, it depends.
So is is the outcome WE MUST avoid. How do we do that? We DO NOT obstruct the givernment for obstructing sakor nor or political expediance. We ALL HAVE a responsibility to make BREXSHIT work otherwise we end up with WTO.So it's
There is absolutly no way the UK public or in fact parliament can get in the way of the government in this process. There is no mechanism for that to happen. TM et al made very sure of that. What it doesn't mean is that people should just shut up and accept it, they should make theor voices and feelings known especially as things are given away to maintain her little red lines - you know starting the negotiating before it starts...
Just remember the harder vote will be the qualified majority of EU members not the UK. The UK will rightly have to put up with what the get as the alternative is even worse.
trouble with the WTO option is as I understand it we are not a member - or only through our EU membership. so even WTO would need negotiations
Not it doesn't depend, it's clear
If no alternative trading arrangement is in place two years after Article 50 is triggered, UK-EU trade would by default take place under WTO rules. As the UK is unlikely to be able to retain access to the EU’s FTAs with third countries after Brexit, WTO rules will also form the basis of the UK’s trade with the rest of the world.
This is what needs to be avoided.
British attempts to “blackmail and divide” EU countries in the run-up to Brexit negotiations will lead to a disastrous “crash-landing” out of the bloc, European politicians have told the Guardian.
A leaked European parliament report seen by the Guardian goes even further, accusing Britain of trying to “move the goalposts and do away with the referee” in the upcoming international clash of negotiators once article 50 is invoked.
“The British government tries to divide and rule,” he said. “They believe they can take members of parliament out of certain nations … to win support by dividing us. If they try to negotiate while trying to interfere in our side then we can do that too. We can make a big fuss over Scotland. Or Northern Ireland.”
A foreword to the report suggests it will be “difficult if not impossible” to get agreement among the EU27 and their national parliaments.
On the substance of a transitional deal, it adds that allowing the UK to continue in the single market without respecting the jurisdiction of the European court or permitting free movement would be like “allowing a national football association to decide it will set its own rules on the size of the ball, the number of players on the field and the width of the goal and do away with the referee, whilst purporting still to be able to take part in the European championship”.
So it's time to get out of the fantasy land and engage with the reality of what is in from of us, like it or not.
And damm good advice for the PM to stop going after the UKIP votes and put the UK first, listen to her EU ambassador (well bit late for that one) and accept as pointed out she can't have it all. Freedom of movement should still be on the table. In fact everything should be....
Thm, no the question of a50 being revocable is open and the topic of a forthcoming legal case. You must know this if you've been paying any attention at all. The recent high court case assumed it was irrevocable as neither side (in that case) disputed it. Doesn't mean they are right.
With respect Captain, I will take the opinion of the SC judges over yours with the respect to the legal background to what is going on
I appreciate that the idea of making things difficult for the government may well be well intentioned but it is simply misguided. It's very, very simple - the law of unintented consequences:
1. We voted to leave the EU. This IS going to happen. The only uncertainty is under what terms
2. Of all the options available, WTO is the least attractive and the one to avoid
3, Obstructing the government's attempts to achieve a deal, or voting down the final deal, make this worse case more likely or certain to happen
Ergo: we all have a responsibility to make this work. You choose....
(FWIW, one of the safer bets in all of this is that there will be some compromise on FoM, that is simple common sense. But it's current status, as the key reason for leaving, does make EEA membership unlikely - although that assumes that other EEA members would want us anyway. That is not a given)
On a positive note and looking for silver linings, it is great to see those of a LW persuasion now fully behind the idea of the four freedoms. Some progress amidst the darkness!!!
Lord Hill (former EU Commissioner) on R4 earlier was interesting, we'll know if we are going to beg a deal early on in the negotiations.
THM
I can see where you are coming from, but as said earlier (and many others agree), if others want it so much then put the effort in yourselves (personally I'm not so worried for ourselves, but am for my 3 sons).
And you seem very convinced that we'll just go WTO, but as I pointed out many pages ago it just ISN'T that simple. We may be able to join relatively easily, notice the word 'relatively' but then actually getting agreement over our exports in an incredibly short period of time will only be possible IMO by us giving in to others demands.
On a positive note and looking for silver linings, it is great to see those of a LW persuasion now fully behind the idea of the four freedoms. Some progress amidst the darkness!!!
If your going to have any hope in understanding people and what is motivating them you are going to have to move away from left and right wing. People manage top cross both spectrums these days picking the aspects that they feel are important. A lesson for all politicians there.
Bobs job was not off shored by me it was off shored by all of us buying cheap overseas manufactured goods - Bob included as he just mentioned at Xmas he bought a new massive flat screen television for £500.
Can't have your cake and eat it. The problem is education as discussed before me and Bob come from exactly the same background, as I have said before his kids were smarter than mine at school but Bob told them university was a waste of time.
Thm, in that case you are blinded by your ideology. The SC judges quite explicitly said they were not ruling on whether A50 could be revoked. For one thing, they weren't asked, for another, it is obviously EU law that applies. It's there in black and white in their ruling.
You're also blinded by your adulation of all things Tory.
I agree mike about moving away from LW v RW debates, they rarely add value. My point was more specific, there are posters with strong LW leanings who are not full behind the four freedoms. For someone like me, with strong libertarian sympathies, that is progress.
TBC, I doubt very much that we will go for WTO. Why would we? That is the worse case outcome. I am aware that the government is seeking a bespoke deal that lies somewhere between the CU and FTA. As I said before I rank their current stance as 2.75 on the scale of options 1 (EEA) to 4 (WTO) with the future shift more likely to be towards 2 than 3
Cap'n, your accusations are as bizarre and amusing as they are misguided.
As I have stated on many occassions I fully support the principle of FoM and am a strong supporter of immigration. I would be advocating more of it, not less. That puts me at total odds with the Tory's misguided manifesto commitment to limit immigration. As an economist, I consider that to be at stupid commitment. You see it helps not to be tied to crass party allegiances - you are then free to focus on issues not party politics. The former are real, the latter just noise.
But if falsely labelling people makes you life easier, then feel free to carry on. It's very funny.
FWIW my ideology led me to be a strong remainer even though I am sell aware that the EZ as opposed to the EU is flawed in design and execution and WILL ultimately fall apart.
It is ok for Bob, he will get a job at Amazon.
Not sure the pay and working conditions are great though.
FWIW my ideology led me to be a strong remainer
Which was of course official Tory policy at the time. Now you are a committed leaver even though the arguments are the same (if anything the threadbare nature of the leave campaign has become more clear).
If May changed her mind and said let's have a rethink would you seriously argue for leave?
It obviously does make you feel better
Remind me of the policy stances of Labour, LDems and even the dreaded SNP re the vote?
Remind me of the policy stances of the gov and HM Opposition post the vote?
Bob needs to sit down a lot not sure Amazon will be ideal
Sounds like Bob needs to accept responsibility for his choices and actions.
It is ok for Bob, he will get a job at Amazon.
Until they replace him with the drones.
Probably worth a read
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2017/feb/20/what-the-eu27-want-brexit-red-lines-from-the-other-side-of-the-table
Until they replace him with the drones.
A random meeting somewhere about 4 years ago was talking about smart lighting saved 100,000s in distribution centres by only lighting where it was needed. Next step saves even more as the new ones don't need lights...
Maybe if all you highly educated people had not off shored all the job's Bob used to have you would not be sufering the wrath of Bob.
What jobs would bob have done in previous decades. Unskilled factory work in a foundry or in a ship yard, maybe in a coal mine, maybe he would have been a farm labourer or a navvy, or maybe he would have enlisted as canon fodder?
Now look around at the current world find those jobs? Automation has killed the jobs, even looking east automation is killing those jobs. If you want a chance you need education and skills. The coming world for those with neither is going to be very bleak. Brexit or no, is irrelevant, Brexit certainly won't make things better.
THM the Bob's of this world (and a know lots) don't take responsibility for their actions, they blame immigrants, rich people and mainstream politicians.
I really don't think a lot of people understand just how "unaware" certain sections of society are - FFS I had one of Bob's mates in the pub saying the price rise of diesal was nothing to do with Brexit and was just rich people making money. If people do not understand the basic fundamentals of exchange rates/economics no amount of responsibility will be taken.
THM the Bob's of this world (and a know lots) don't take responsibility for their actions, they blame immigrants, rich people and mainstream politicians.
True.
Your all very happy to Write off Bob and all his mates, Millions of people! but you forgot to take the franchise away so Bob and the boy's bite your ass and now you dont like it, there is a lesson here in democracy.
That's just the point wiki I am unlikley to get bit in the ass, the Bob's of the world are likely to have theirs chewed off. That's not democracy it's ill informed/educated people being egged on by a bunch of newspapers and politicians to jump off a cliff on their behalf to ensure a soft landing when they jump.
The same thing haappened in Scotland too. What do you suggest, prevent them from taking part in the democratic process?
Your all very happy to Write off Bob and all his mates, Millions of people! but you forgot to take the franchise away so Bob and the boy's bite your ass and now you dont like it, there is a lesson here in democracy.
To a point here we are not, but on the other side I've met far too many unwilling to change or adapt while their peers did. If you want to live in the 70's don't be upset when we have a go at you for it.
There are no jobs for life
Cheap electronics don't come from UK factories
Manual labour is decreasing
Unskilled labour is rapidly decreasing
If your left out and have not tried to move on it's not our fault.
As is frequently pointed out the youth of today seem to want something for nothing, do we give the same answer to the middle aged?
I agree with wicki, the key is to understand why people are voting in the way they are, not to dismiss them. The remoaners are merely making this more difficult by making it obvious that the politicians are increasingly divorced from those they represent.
"You're thick, you voted the wrong way, we don't want to listen to you. We know better"
190 Lords about to speak in the debate that we are not having
190 Lords about to speak in the debate that we are not having
Welcome to democracy, says a lot when it's the unelected chamber doing it
You seem unhappy about lots of things mike - would you prefer that they didn't debate it? Some of them have tremendous knowledge and experience - more so than in HoC.
Most of the Leavers I know are not Bob.
Far from it.
Immigration is probably their number one consideration.
Not really just challenged you a few to many times for your liking I think. The Hoc had a limp meaningless debate on the subject and offered the government unfettered powers into negotiation ( like ruling stuff out for no good reason that will result in a number of options being off the table from day one) The Lords should be debating it and I'm sure they will in a way that MP's lacked a backbone to do earlier. The unhappiness is probably also at the state of the world where fake news, alt facts and out and out lies have become the staple of debate. The level of common decency from the leave side still shocks me, to [s]stand[/s] slouch in front of a select committee and tell them lies were the only way to convince the public it was a good idea and **** the consequences is going too far.
You want to leap on the brexit means brexit then go for it. Personally even being more economically right than left I wouldn't trust any of those in a position to negotiate with anything. TM who was shat on by trump, with a special interest in your internet history. BoJo the flipper and the rest. They will cripple the UK.
Very unhappy indeed.
Challenged? Sorry missed that.
You could always jump on the latest happy band wagon and be more "mindful". Focus on the now, not the past nor the future. What we have in front of us today....
From what I can see the vast majoroty of STWers are responsoble for offshoring as everytime there is a thread about buying cheap bike bits from the internet vs bike shop most posters won't oay a peny more to buy from a shop. Ditto here re food prices, bery few willing to pay extra for UK produced/better quality food, lowest price required to "help the poor"
BTW from a few pages back it's not a matter of whether UK prodiced cars are exported its about the net trade flow for a specific manufacturer, which for the vast majority (ie most mainstream companies) we are a net importer. Only examples like Land Rover, Jaguar or Aston Martin we are net exporters and even the latter two are really Ford. BMW seems to manage producing all X5's in the US (my understanding)
From what I can see the vast majoroty of STWers are responsoble for offshoring as everytime there is a thread about buying cheap bike bits from the internet vs bike shop most posters won't oay a peny more to buy from a shop. Ditto here re food prices, bery few willing to pay extra for UK produced/better quality food, lowest price required to "help the poor"
Hows your Kodi sub going?
Challenged? Sorry missed that.
Well you were pedanting along very hard in the Mary Stokes thread....
Immigration is probably their number one consideration.
The key factor is recent significant uptocks in immigration are from lower qualified workers undermining wages and "taking the jobs Brits won't do" - allegedly. It is these people who are paying insufficient tax to pay for oublic services a d putting significant pressure onnthe system.
The UK's concerns are no different from those in France, Holland, Germany etc. When quotas for refugees where discussed the push back from Eastern European EU members was very strong. The very same nations that are significant beneficiaries of freedom of movement.
Hows your Kodi sub going?
Works fine getting content unavailable anywhere else at any price.
bery few willing to pay extra for UK produced/better quality food, lowest price required to "help the poor"
So you're happy to rip people off and preach about others doing the same?
Allegedly and wrong
It is these people who are paying insufficient tax to pay for oublic services a d putting significant pressure onnthe system
No need to ask for a (non-existent) source!!!
Mike, Perhaps your unhappiness could be solved by widening your tolerance and empathy? You were vexed on that thread too but very unchallenging.
Only examples like Land Rover, Jaguar or Aston Martin we are net exporters and even the latter two are really Ford. BMW seems to manage producing all X5's in the US (my understanding)
Your out of date JLR is owned by Tata now. They were i seem to remember sourcing steel from Arcelor at one point rather than Tata. I think the largest by volume UK owned car maker is Morgan these days?