[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I think you need to understand what a promise of a commitment is - its is remainers who are twisting the comments not the Brexshiteers (for a change)

We are clear about [b]what we want[/b] from Europe

Is an aspiration.

We WILL honour the result of the referendum. Whatever the outcome

Is a commitment.

Its very simple. Apples and oranges

I think you need to understand what a promise of a commitment is

Yes, once we leave the EU we can no longer be a full member of the Single Market.
Other options are available (unless ruled out by May's "pink lines" before negotiations even begin).

[i][ bored now ][/i]

such analysis has ever been carried out to my knowledge,

That's because I suspect it is impossible. But that's part of the whole problem with EU debate, to accurately model all the in or out scenarios is going to be witch craft, not science. You may as well pick sides based on whether you like straight bananas or not 😆

"That's because I suspect it is impossible. But that's part of the whole problem with EU debate, to accurately model all the in or out scenarios is going to be witch craft, not science. You may as well pick sides based on whether you like straight bananas or not"

+1

oob, they are very clear about distinguishing between the SM and EU and eurozone etc throughout the whole document. You can't pretend now that referendum on one aspect is a referendum on a whole lot of other separate stuff that was not mentioned on the ballot. Or did we just vote on the death penalty and fox hunting too?

Surely it's easier to post what what you are referring to on page 73 than post in riddles, THM.

The official Tory line was "in" throughout with the promise of a referendum they fully expected to yield an "in" result. That didn't happen and now they're making it up as they go along.

That didn't happen and now they're making it up as they go along.

Indeed, but that is what governments have to do when the facts change.

oob, they are very clear about distinguishing between the SM and EU and eurozone etc throughout the whole document. You can't pretend now that referendum on one aspect is a referendum on a whole lot of other separate stuff that was not mentioned on the ballot. Or did we just vote on the death penalty and fox hunting too?

I'm saying that document contained no commitment to remain in the Single Market.

You're discussing what "leaving the EU" was intended to mean. Totally different argument.

No, I'm saying that there is no reasonable interpretation of "We say yes to the single market" other than the choice to stay in it.

Positive economic data. Economic growth revised back to almost pre Brexit levels. Will look in more detail later.

Turkey is in the Customs Union but Norway isn't, But Norway is in the EEA but not the EU, and turkey is in neither.

just thought it was worth mentioning how messy this is.

Just for clarity how does the Norway/Sweden border function? That is how ireland will. ie border checkpoints will be needed.

Norway is effectively in Schengen as a result of the Nordic Passport Union, as is Iceland.

Jamba, we are still pre-brexit.

Guys and Gals.

The UK cannot guaranty tariff free access to the single market. If it did that's a negotiating gold mine to the EU as they can simply ask for whatever they want in return. As on any STW car buying thread you are always advised to walk away if they deal isn't right. Basic stuff. Those calling for it are attempting petty politics to try and make May and the Government incompetent. Not going to happen.

Political win. WTO rules with all money raised going to the NHS. Add that to the EU budget savings that's £20-25bn to play with even assumingbwe match all EU funding to all UK projects. £380-480m a week.

THM - sorry I may not have been clear. We will cease to be members at the end of the negotiations and that may well be two years. The two years may well end up being about our ongoing obligations after we leave or the leaving fee though (Ivan's €60b). The how not the whether though I'd agree.
Once the Europeans are happy with that, they'll start talking about access. Now that may happen inside the two years or it may not.
Given no one has done this most of it is speculation though.

WTO rules with all money raised going to the NHS. Add that to the EU budget savings that's £20-25bn to play with even assumingbwe match all EU funding to all UK projects. £380-480m a week.

I call huge whopping jambafact

Political win. WTO rules with all money raised going to the NHS.

Or in other words a tax on the pound in the UK consumers pocket. Well played sir. Effectively raising VAT (admittedly only on foreign goods, but that is a third of what we buy and it takes time to develop that sort of manufacturing capacity).

heres another reason to thank jamba and the brexies......

from the stw email

Towards the end of 2016 we got the not-unexpected announcement that paper and print prices would be going up. Our paper, like everyone else’s comes from the Continent as there are no commercial magazine-quality paper mills in the UK any more and, priced in Euros, the cost of paper has increased.

still theres absolutely going to be billions more for the NHS 😉

That last Jambalaya post deserves the 😆 of the year and it is only February.

I thought the NHS Needed private money not public?

Even if there was suddenly billions to spare for NHS, it wouldn't be given to it. If the government really wanted to give more money to NHS it could do it tomorrow.

Chances are it would go towards tax relief of some kind for high earners...

WTO rules with all money raised going to the NHS. Add that to the EU budget savings that's £20-25bn to play with even assumingbwe match all EU funding to all UK projects. £380-480m a week.

Jambafact aside - Do you seriously think anyone falls for the numbers you just pluck out of the air?

Edukator, I believe in teaching a man to fish, People should actually read the manifesto before proclaiming what it does or doesn't say.

"In" is a meaningless concept that has simply led to confusion. See the last five or so pages for proof.

It means nothing, The correct debate is between "membership of" and "access to". Two different concepts and a distinction that is fundamental, Once that is understood, we can make progress.

Yes, IGM we remain members. We have simply passed a Bill that allows us to serve notice of our intention to leave. This allows negotiations to being, Nothing more, nothing less. Before that (official) negotiations could not happen.

jambalaya - Member
Positive economic data. Economic growth revised back to almost pre Brexit levels.

Political win. WTO rules with all money raised going to the NHS. Add that to the EU budget savings that's £20-25bn to play with even assumingbwe match all EU funding to all UK projects. £380-480m a week.

like everyone else’s comes from the Continent as there are no commercial magazine-quality paper mills in the UK any more and, priced in Euros, the cost of paper has increased.

Who cares about a £1 or two on a mag, its not like they only have that option they could also use different paper, go digital, or become more efficient. I don't think the cost of increase of magazine quality paper costs the NHS much. Christ have you seen the state of magazine in NHS waiting rooms.

So its good news it's taken 7 months to claw back to nearly where the UK was and we haven't started leaving yet?

There has been no downturn since the Brexit vote, so this is just rubbish, one was forecast by many but it hasn't materialised yet.

Article 50 is a bit more than that, THM. there's no obligation to reach agreement and if no agreement is reached the UK is out of everything:

[url= http://www.lisbon-treaty.org/wcm/the-lisbon-treaty/treaty-on-european-union-and-comments/title-6-final-provisions/137-article-50.html ]Article 50[/url]

Isn't it easier for you to link what you've found then send people off to look for it THM. I just assume you're talking rubbish if you expect me to rummage through a manifesto to find something that might have some relevance to what you are claiming or not as you claim to have trouble with a concept as simple as "in" to describe the UK's current position.

Why would it? We haven't left, so those negative impacts have yet to be felt (apart from uncertainty, see ^). In the meantime, we have hasd significant injections into the economy via a cut in rates and a 20% devaluation. Both are stimulatory. The downside is rising inflationary expectations as predicted. The pressure will come on rates in due course.

Edukator if it wasn't irrevocable then the Supreme Court would not have had to make its decision.

The link was already there, plus there's this wonderul tool I found called google, I typed in conservative 2015 manifesto and bingo within 1 minute I found the relevant page. It wasn't difficult. Plus the relevant sections were quoted ad verbatim.

Not for the first time, you assumption is flawed. Significantly so.

A lot of sensible positioning in that manifesto as regards trade, although I now understand that it's (nearly) all to be ignored because of the result of the referendum. So, new manifesto and put it to the vote please…

Also a lot of sense coming from Conservative MPs this week (in words but not actions).

I'm adding Neil Carmichael to the [i]"yes, that all sounds very sensible, now do something about it"[/i] list.

I take it back about Theresa

Her introduction to the White Paper is very badly written with sloppy grammar and terrible and incorrect use of superlatives. Did she write it in a hurry?

So, new manifesto and put it to the vote please…

The PM doesn't have the power to do this anymore.

Is she calls a GE, kelvin, she is likely to have a greater majority and more power. Be careful what you wish for....

The PM doesn't have the power to do this anymore.

Correct. But parliament does. In fact, it can do so against the PM's wishes.

she is likely to have a greater majority and more power

Power with a mandate though.
Democracy and all that.
I agree a GE would most likely increase her party's majority
Things can change in surprising ways though.
When did a party last win a majority with a commitment to fully withdraw from the Single Market?

parliament can write a Tory manifesto? The world is weird...

parliament can write a Tory manifesto? The world is weird...

He, and I, where clearly referring to calling a general election.

Don't be a ____.

Correct. But parliament does. In fact, it can do so against the PM's wishes.

Not on a simple majority though - the whole process could easily turn into a bugger's muddle. But there is no constitutional requirement; looking at the polls there is no political requirement; and the economic priority is to remove uncertainty as soon as possible.

Still not prepared to quote what you think in relevant from page 73 and how it supports your view that "in" isn't "in" in the manifesto then, THM.

I don't see how any of the manifesto objectives can be achieved unless Britain is "in" and the manifesto assumes negotiation from within. Once out Britain has no say and Europe's 27 don't have to negotiate anything they don't want to following reception of Article 50 because after two years the default is "out" period, as in out on your ear.

Incidentally typing page 73 into the PDF page search gets you page 71 with the number off the bottom of the page so it really isn't as simple as you were claim and certainly not possible in less than a minute. So what really happens is

Find a browser with English language priority
hunt through results for manifesto.
Find manifesto
find link to PDF
wait for pdf to open
type page 73 insearch
read page 73 (which is page 71 but that I couldn't know)
wonder what THM is on about
Give up

Just as well I took a second look

He was referring to calling a referendum, and implementing the decision.

Could, mefty?

We're there already

Posting favourite bits from the bill?

I'd go for the section on Northern Ireland, but it's too depressingly, dangerously, flawed, so instead, I'll go for…

[img] [/img]

We're there already

Not really, the Government has sent out a plan, it has been welcomed by the grown ups and coincides with what they were expecting.

Once out Britain has no say and Europe's 27 don't have to negotiate anything they don't want to following reception of Article 50 because after two years the default is "out" period, as in out on your ear.

I don't see why you are banging on* about this, everyone knows this, but if the EU and UK fail to reach a deal it will be a failure of political leadership on both sides of the Channel.

* Other than a spiteful wish to see it happen, which naturally would be completely out of character.

Sorry kelvin, just keep the contributions in line with each other. I won't stoop in future.

Edukator why are you asking me find something that I haven't claimed exists in the first place, are you Ernie in disguise?

Sorry for the inconvenience about the pages numbers, it's abugger that isn't it. Have you not come across that before. Still every day is a learning day as they say.

Sorry for the inconvenience about the pages numbers, it's abugger that isn't it. Have you not come across that before.

But in this case, it is because when someone from a French ISP searches from it, the pages dealing with their manifesto commitment to declare war on France is automatically taken out - crafty.