Jamba - have you notice Salmond is not leading the SNP anymore and do you not think they have learned the lessons?
On the Euro Jamba - how many years ago was it you first started saying the euro is dead, Greece would default and that Germany would want out? Its still not happening
The world has known about the awful state of Greek finances for years now. Yet the Euro hasn't imploded. We were absolutely promised by the likes of the Telegraph this would happen 2 years ago now, and it still hasn't materialized).
I think Greece should look at bankruptcy and wipe out its debt. It's the interest it's paying that is prolonging their crisis. Wipe the debt and the Euro and EU can move forward, but it's probably bankers that are maintaining the pressure to break the Euro and win some sort of perverted victory. I wonder whether banks would be able to charge more for currency transactions than the current position with the Euro.
Whadayathink Jamba?
The question is how many times do you have to do that because their debts will start accumulating again after a few years since they are not producing much.captainsasquatch - Member
I think Greece should look at bankruptcy and wipe out its debt.
France is going to have a hell of a shock under Fillon
I'm watching Valls/Hamon on TF1 at the moment. It's taken Fillon to make me realise I'll be voting left for the first time in my life (I've voted centre and even green in the Europeans but never left). On the basis of tonight Hamon gets my vote and Madame will probably vote Macron.
Let us not forget how this whole sorry mess began, Cameron was scared of losing a few votes to UKIP, so in his nievity promised an advisory referendum.
Safe bet at the time I'm sure, tehe population would never vote to leave? Would it?
hindsight is a wonderful thing, but when you're PM, ..and now what have we got... May, Davies and Johnson..and what can only be described as a cluster ****.
The level of incompetence and 'winging it' has reached stratospheric levels.
Let me think Left side debate (for a party which will be eliminated in the first round in an election I can't vote in and a lot of which I won't follow 😳 ) or ... L'amour c'est muiex a deux and Top Chef - a bit more of my level 🙂
I am pretty negative on eurozone, others may have a more positive view but they cannt keep kicking the issue into the long grass and interest rates are ultra low and will not stay that way. The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.
Captain it would be very painful for Greece to default and return to the Drachma but it would give them a way forward. They are hoping to outlast the EU in this game of chicken and get a debt deal where (say) 60% of their debt is written off and they get to stay in the euro. The IMF was trying to push the eurozone into it as was Obama (hence his last minute trip there).
@maty Cameron gave the Scots a Referendum, did the SNP deride him for that ? Even those of us in the rest of the UK respected that is was the Scots right to make their own choice (once in a lifetime 😉 ). Cameron is a democrat, yes of course he thought he'd win, he thought by making it advisory he might wiggle out but in the end he did the right thing and resign.
Captain it would be very painful for Greece to default and return to the Drachma but it would give them a way forward. They are hoping to outlast the EU in this game of chicken and get a debt deal where (say) 60% of their debt is written off and they get to stay in the euro. The IMF was trying to push the eurozone into it as was Obama (hence his last minute trip there).
So you agree that it's the banks that are preventing Greece from moving forward and that they are trying to discredit the Euro. That if Greece didn't have to pay crippling interest payment that they would be in a far stringer position now and the Euro, and ultimately the EU would be in a much stronger place.
Nasty bankers, merchant bankers!
The debt has been "nationalised", EU members and ECB are predominant lenders, private sector lending is very small now.
You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.
She has missed nothing. Unlike many, she is fully aware of the FUNDAMENTAL distinction between "access to" and "membership of" the single market. Many have access to via the four basic frameworks. Only 28 currently have membership of. This will be 27 now that we have voted to give up our membership.
Again unlike many, she is now focused on how to ensure access. She wants a bespoke deal but under terms that cannot be delivered. Hence the negotiations - have I mentioned that already. In the end, we will get a compromise that limits the damage of this lose:lose situation. In the meantime, those who don't understand what is happening here will continue to tie themselves in knots.
Jambas you are wrong to focus on Greece which is noise now. The key issue is the fundamental flaws at the core of the EZ - the € itself and the fact that the Germans deny their responsibility to recycle the surpluses that this flawed construct delivers in its favour. Your are wasting your breath debating the folly of the € here, since the solidarity towards the EZ workers who have seen 30-40% wage deflation and/or mass unemployment as a direct result of the € is not even skin deep. It is ignored or if we are being polite misunderstood.
[quote="jambalaya"] - Member
@maty Cameron [i]gave[/i] the Scots a Referendum
could you maybe just patronise us a bit more? [i]Gave[/i] us indeed. He agreed to because he had no option same as May will have no option when we want to call another one
Its not the yield on Greek debt that is the issue - the whole debt dynamics cannot work. Its basic maths.
But in itself, Greece is a sideshow except for the poor Greeks themselves who seem to have been abandoned by UK lefties !
cam got a new job today
something about hoping the public have short memories
The level of incompetence and 'winging it' has reached stratospheric levels.
On the contrary, despite the three Brexshiteers involvement the progress so far has been remarkable. Michel Barnier and Merkel are broadly on-side. May is getting on with things and the timetable is going to be met. How often do politicians pull such a difficult task off? Hardly ever. Ok they screwed up in the royal prerogative but that is passed now.
From a barely competent Home Sec, old Theresa is surprising on the upside so far - especially since she is doing something that she doesn't wholeheartedly believe in.
Jamba - have you notice Salmond is not leading the SNP anymore and do you not think they have learned the lessons?
Indeed, even the diehards know they cant win a referendum. Just left to resort to mischief making. Still a good smokescreen for the domestic failures. Rhetoric versus reality.
THM…
1) Being "a part of" or "in" the Single Market (all three forms of it: goods, services and food) is something (I think) we should be aiming for, but is now dead in the water because of May's red lines.
2) "Membership" of the Single Market is a red herring. I (hope) I haven't slipped into saying that we're likely to get that outside the EU. It is not the same as being 'in" it.
3) "Access to" used to mean something akin to 1, but has been delibrately rescoped to mean "trade with in any form" by the eurosceptics for their own ends, they have been saying that USA has "access to" the Single Market since the referendum, to set out sights low.
Note: I want more than "the Norway model", because I don't want our farmers hung out to dry, no matter what individual farmers might have voted for. We can't even achieve this though, with May's personal red lines blocking any such deal.
I repeat…
You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?
Captain as Medty says the banks are not involved. The EU forc d them to take a big loss and took on the debt themselves. IMO they did this to stop the banks forcing Greece into bankruptcy. The private sector is not interested in lending to Greece, only a politician motivated by survival and using taxpayers money would be daft enough.
TJ Cameron is a democrat so he gave the Scots a Referendum. May will do no such thing, zero chance. Not least as there is absolutely no need. The matter was finally settled in 2014.
Greece will be the catalyst imo tmh.
Kelvin - are you deliberately missing the fact that the whole debate currently is on what form of access to the single market we will end up with?
May's red lines merely rule out one of the existing options (EEA) and makes another more challenging (CU). She is currently pitching her opening gambit between the CU and FTA. We shall see where it ends.
Its is factually incorrect to suggest that her red lines make access dead in the water.
You are correct that her red lines (currently) make the Norway option difficult/impossible.
Please try to read up on this - leave going round in circles to HM Opposition.
edit for edit - you can keep on repeating as much as you like. Until you understand the difference between access to and membership of, you will get nowhere. Its not difficult.
Italy perhaps. Greece unlikely. Greek creditors will ultimately take a hit but we know who they are.
May's red lines rule out being in the Single Market.
Look what the EFTA countries in the EEA have to do in terms of courts and FoM.
Her red lines are ECJ and FoM.
Although not actually ECJ, a similar court exists for countries in the Single Market that are not in the EU.
She has anything like ruled this out.
How can you be in the Single Market without a court of arbitration for disputes?
FoM has been done to death… she has been clear what her position is, and it rules out being in the Single Market.
Until you understand the difference between [b]being in [/b] and membership of, you will get nowhere.
There are countries[b] in [/b]the Single Market, that are [b]part of [/b]the Single Market, that are not members.
"Access to" has become a meaningless phrase, that applies to everyone from South Korea to South Africa, it has long since stopped meaning anything like "being in" or "trading within" or any kind of "in" at all.
May's red lines rule out being in the Single Market.
Repeat 100 times...
...Its still not true. There's a shock!
"Access to" has become a meaningless phrase,
As above
May's red lines rule out being in the Single Market.
Repeat 100 times......Its still not true. There's a shock!
She has said so herself.
May's red lines merely limit our options for access to the single market
[b]From the outset, it is important that the Government, Parliament and the public are clear about the distinction between ‘access to’ and ‘membership of’ the Single Market. [/b]Many countries have ‘access to’ the EU’s Single Market, either through agreed tariffs at the WTO or via a FTA. [b]However, the only countries which have full membership of the Single Market[/b]—which entails the liberalised movement of goods, services, people and capital (the ‘Four Freedoms’), secured through common rules interpreted by the European Court of Justice (CJEU)— [b]are EU Member States.[/b]
28 of them - soon to be 27
Thank yo for patronising us so nicely again Jamba.
Cameron did not "give" us anything. He agreed to the referendum as May will have to as well - why because if she does not agree then we hold one without her agreement and her refusing will immediately put several points on the yes vote making a yes vote almost certain. It will be harder to hold one without Westminster agreement but not impossible and the rest of the world would accept the result in line with previous cases and international law.
Your attitude to scotland is so patronising its hard to believe that you really think like that.
Cameron understood this. May is not stupid.
However, the only countries which have [b]full membership [/b]of the Single Market
…are EU states, yes, yes, but there are countries [b]in the [/b]Single Market that do not fit that description.
They are part of the Single Market and are not full members. A weaker position to be in, but in the SM none the less.
Its not as patronising as the attitude of the EU or the Supreme Court!
Or as patronising as telling the Scottish people that their "best interests" are served by giving up monetary, fiscal and political sovereignty to [s]Frankfurt, Berlin[/s] Brussels.... so that the narcissists can claim a false victory. That is the biggest folly of all! To suggest it, implies that the people of Scotland are economically and politically illiterate. which they have already shown the be untrue.
Scots are not stupid
Opinion poll out tonight
Polling Matters / @OpiniumResearch
Brexit decision: Right or wrong?
Definitely right 40%
Probably right 13%
Probably wrong 16%
Definitely wrong 23%
DK 9%
The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.
That's Britain in two years time. Inflation is rising, rates will follow.
[url= http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/inflation-cpi ]UK inflation.[/url]
That's Britain in two years time. Inflation is rising, rates will follow.
Don't worry, apparently that'll just be a bump in the road on our way to a new dawn of the Great British Empire 😆
Definitely right 40%
Yup, people have bought into the idea that nothing "project fear" predicted will happen to them (rather than it being delayed because May wisely bought us 6 months) and so debt fuelled consumer spending is very strong. Confidence is high.
The debt mountain quickly crushes you as rates rise.
Ah, yes…
And with May and Trump together, what could go wrong?
Maybe a wall between Ireland and the UK?
Look on the bright side, risinginflation will help to reduce our own debt mountain or at least offset our latest fix
Confidence may be misplaced. We have just had a massive loosing of policy via a 20% devaluation and a cut in rates (same effect) combined with futther stealing off savers in order to give the debt junkies their final hit. Going cold turkey after this will not be pleasant nor good for confidence!
Can I agree with Jamba on something?
Much as I'd love the euro to succeed (in principle taking the money changers out of the loop is great) it probably won't.
I think it only works with political union and that isn't going to happen. Just as cars need differentials to turn corners without the wheels falling off, countries need exchange rates to allow them to pursue slightly different courses. The differential or exchange rate dissipates the stresses in the system.
That said I think that is known and understood and post Brexit the EU will sooner or later revise the euro or even replace it.
Where I differ with Jamba is that I think the EU will survive, adapt, evolve and probably grow. It always has so far.
Igm, its more than just "I think". It has to fail by design, the EZ does not qualify as an optimal currency area and its construct is missing a core element as you say - fiscal and political union. It's is only a matter of when not if. History is merely repeating itself. In the meantime we have extensive collateral damage - solidarity comrades!
Oh and the comedy act of wee nippy pretending that being replacement 28a will be in the interests of those she is meant to be representing. Dark humour indeed. T2a.
The dollar is used in all 50 US states and as a hard currency in countries all over the world.
[url= http://www.tax-rates.org/taxtables/sales-tax-by-state ]Sales tax varies from zero to 7% depending on state[/url]
[url= http://money.cnn.com/pf/features/lists/total_taxes/ ]State taxes state by state.[/url]
I'm in favour of eurobonds and a limit to the fiscal dumping carried out by Luxembourg, Ireland, NL and the UK. If the US can do it, so can Europe.
Compare the Euro to the basket of currencies it replaced, when looking at its success and resilience.
Changes required, for sure, but I wouldn't bet against it surviving.
Or as patronising as telling the Scottish people that their "best interests" are served by giving up monetary, fiscal and political sovereignty to Frankfurt, Berlin Brussels
Except no one actually ever did that.
Where I differ with Jamba is that I think the EU will survive, adapt, evolve and probably grow. I
Indeed, the hard on that the bitterest little englanders have for the EU collapsing is quite sad
Of course not Gordi. If they told the truth they would be laughed out of the room straight away. Hence the deceit.
Did you miss the Indy referendum - the paradigm shift in post truth politics?
Everyone with a conscience should be wishing an end for the euro. It has wrought havoc in wages and employment levels across Europe. Far more damaging than the scapegoat that is immigration. Only economic and social vandals would want it to survive.
How so, THM? It's replaced an exchange rate mechanism and before that Europe was plagued with the uncertainties of currency instability and a series of competitive devaluations from some countries.
The Euro has allowed employers to plan ahead without those currency risks. Look at the fortunes of Jaguar over six decades. Each time the pound had gone down US sales have boomed and each time the pound has gone up it's been lay-offs and near financial disaster. In the end the answer has been American ownership and sourcing a lot of components from more stable currency zones. Stable currency rates favour long term investment and prosperity. Would you really rather have the kind of volatility seen in Latin America?
teamhurtmore - Member
Of course not Gordi. If they told the truth they would be laughed out of the room straight away. Hence the deceit.Did you miss the Indy referendum - the paradigm shift in post truth politics?
Everyone with a conscience should be wishing an end for the euro. It...
Ummm, wtf? Let's say for a second you are correct for arguments sake.
It would be easily demonstrable by the leave campaign, so why all the lies and manipulation of the 52%? If the leavers could put forward a compelling argument I'd be all ears but that hasn't been and still isn't the case.
Where's the honesty and transparency if it's that simple?
THM still going on about the scottish referendum? A subject where his hatred of scotland and its people shine thru? Where he keeps banging on about lies without being able to see the beam in his own eye? and is this not the euro referendum thread?