Edinburgh would be very well placed to take those banks
TJ Scotland is not well placed to take or retain any financial institution, eg bank or insurance company. Under the SNP plan it would have no financial regulator and no central bank/lender of last resort. That was one of the reasons I would have pulled my pension assets from Standard Life on the basis of a Yes.
@molgrips - any deal which provides tariff free access to a suitable trade balanced set of products and services. Namely tariff free trade netween the UK and the EU would be balanced on an economic value basis. Zero budget contribution. If the EU where to have full access to the UK market as at present they should pay us given trade imbalance. I could see a deal on Academic projects where we pay into a central fund on the basis we get yhe same amount of money back and we share access to all the research work.
I assume that since we left EFTA we would have to apply to rejoin which would require agreement of all the existing members.
any deal which provides tariff free access to a suitable trade balanced set of products and services
So how likely is it that we get that?
Probably why no one said anything about EFTA mefty. It is the EEA we're in, a bespoke deal could mean EEA without joining EFTA (although that it isn't going to happen with May's red lines). A very unlikely and difficult deal to get everyone to agree to though. A more reasonable aim would be try and be a part of the Single Market, but not in he EEA, like Switzerland. Again, not possible with May's red lines.
Zero contributions is your personal red line Jamba. It isn't the government's. It wasn't the question we voted on.
Norway Model. Remember the Norwegians rejected EU membership inna Referendum but the government just signed up to everything it could annyway.
EU White Paper. Smartly played by May, IMO she will publish the paper after triggering A50 having got that key irreversal step out of the way. I suppose we will never know whetther she was always intending to do so. She told the Brexit Committee that Parliament would be given the opportunity to fully scrutinise the Brexit deal.
Zero contributions is your personal red line Jamba. It isn't the government's. It wasn't the question we voted on.
Agreed, but I can only answer Molgrips question on the basis he asked it, ie what do I want. Budget contributions where a key part of the campaign whatever their weekly total.
Remember the Norwegians rejected EU membership inna Referendum but the government just signed up to everything it could annyway.
This is pretty much what I'd like to see. It won't happen though. You can see me as an extremist if you like.
Likewise, May pulling us out of everything, and signing up to nothing, is the other extreme.
Somewhere in between would be seen as a deal for 'the whole of the UK', rather than a minority of extremists at either end of the scale.
MPs need to wake up and get a grip on our manner of leaving.
The EEA treaty also uses a definition of EFTA member for the non EU states, what I said is about EEA as that was the treaty I looked at..
Not clear how much of this "signing up for everything/something/nothing" is likely to happen within the 2 year timeframe anyway. Most of this time will be spent over things like bickering over the exit bill and negotiating over the lives of the expats (both directions). At the end of which, we'll have the North Korea situation.
Norway Model. Remember the Norwegians rejected EU membership inna Referendum but the government just signed up to everything it could annyway.
That's what the UK will have to do, at the price the EU decides to charge.
From the man who is likely to be the US Ambassador to the EU, all good stuff 8)
1) The euro could collapse in 18 months
2) On UK trade negotiations prior to exit and the EU "prohibition"
"I think it is an absurd proposition and may be a legalism," he said.
"There are going to be all kinds of things happening behind closed doors and you can call them what you like.
3) On deal timing he points out that the worlds largest mergers and aquisitions are competed in 90 days if you have the right poeple in the room
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-38749884
That's what the UK will have to do, at the price the EU decides to charge.
Pas du tout. We have a trade deficit (Norway has a surplus). See the piece above Edukator, the EU is totally ****ed. The reason May was being so consiliatroy about wanting to see the EU succeed the EU is well aware it is extreme vulnerable economically.
Trump is going to absolutely nail the eurozone to the wall over a Greece/Southern Europe debt write off / refinancing etc. It's going to be carnage and will be the biggest ego trip for Trump who is the "Dealmaker"
The euro could collapse in 18 months
Why is that good???!!
It allows some people to s****.
Hmm… peace and stability in Europe being at risk was supposedly "project fear"…
From someone in Trump team. A bit like when they deny climate change and all that nonsense.
[i]From the man who is likely to be the US Ambassador to the EU, all good stuff[/I]
FFS all good stuff!
Have you lost your mind, we're talking about a future where there could be no one (group) capable of standing up to the US. They'd be able to pick us off one by one, and the UK would end up as nothing other than a patsy nation to it.
NHS? That'll be history along with the majority of our social system replaced by global businesses answering to no one but no doubt head quartered in the US as they'll depend on their military might to support them.
Crackers.
Even you can't believe that this is a GOOD THING?
[i]3) On deal timing he points out that the worlds largest mergers and aquisitions are competed in 90 days if you have the right poeple in the room[/I]
Of course, bend over.
And tbh the easiest way to conclude any deal is to 'buy' the individuals involved in doing the deal..., pretty standard practice IME.
I really try to take what you post seriously, Jamba. However declaring the EU to be '****ed' prompts the question, "how so?" The EU is doing just fine, better than the UK on objective criteria. Each time you try to present data to prove your point the UK turns out to be worse than the eurozone. If the EU is "****ed", by the same measures the UK is double "****ed".
The UK is a union that is falling apart
The UK runs an unsustainable trade deficit
The Pound is tanking
The UK is falling into the hands of foreign investors
And that's before the UK cuts itself off from its neighbouring trading block with which is its biggest trading partner.
10 grand says the EU outlasts Trump's presidency. What do you say to that, jambalaya?
The interesting one on a Trump and the EU is that the America first policy is going to alienate China and the Pacific countries who will be looking to do deals with the EU precisely because they ain't Trump and he don't like them.
The US might be strong but not compared to a China - Germany led carve up if world trade.
Trump might bizarrely be the best thing ever for the EU as he presents a common enemy for lots of people.
Jamba - you don't think and independent scotland would set up those things?
<mod>Swear filter, gentlemen.</mod>
mefty - Member
The EFTA treaty is a treaty between EU countries and EFTA countries so on leaving the EU we would only retain membership if we automatically became an EFTA state as defined in the treaty. There is no provision as far as I can see for this to happen automatically.
Interesting. Between the EU and EFTA countries or between the EU and EFTA?
Well it appears a) the individuals signed it and b) EU membership doesn't automatically get you in - well not immediately.
So it appears to be between the countries that happen to be in those groupings not the groupings themselves.
That is consistent with the legal opinions around article 127 that have been in the press.
The EEA membership.
The EEA Agreement was signed in Porto on 2 May 1992 by the then seven states of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), the European Community (EC) and its then 12 member states.[8][9] On 6 December 1992, Switzerland's voters rejected the ratification of the agreement in a constitutionally mandated referendum,[10] effectively freezing the application for EC membership submitted earlier in the year. Switzerland is instead linked to the EU by a series of bilateral agreements. On 1 January 1995, three erstwhile members of EFTA—Austria, Finland and Sweden—acceded to the European Union, which had superseded the European Community upon the entry into force of the Maastricht Treaty on 1 November 1993. Liechtenstein's participation in the EEA was delayed until 1 May 1995.[11]As of 2014 the contracting parties to the EEA are 3 of the 4 EFTA member states and 27 of the 28 EU member states. The 28th and newest EU member, Croatia, finished negotiating their accession to the EEA in November 2013,[12] and since 12 April 2014 is provisionally applying the agreement pending its ratification by all EEA member states.
May pulling us out of everything, and signing up to nothing, is the other extreme.
It's the way it's heading, isn't it. For all Jamba et all's fictional protestations that this is what we all knew and wanted all along, one of two things will happen.
1) We'll pull out of Freedom of Movement, the EEA, the EFTA, the WWF, the WTF and all the other acronyms I can't even begin to keep track of, and will be left with the square root of geoff all as no-one will want to "cut a deal" with us without those things in place. Which might actually be the best outcome, because when we're left holding our ball with no-one to play with, we might actually realise what a monumentally hopeless corner we've painted ourselves into and overturn our decision to leave.
2) We won't do any of that, in which case we're left with all the restrictions people are bleating on about, with none of the benefits as we're out of the EU.
Remind me again how any of this omnishambles leaves us "better off"?
You missed the NFL. We won't be in that either. Or the NBA.
Oh, and we can probably add the EHIC to that list. Good luck if you can still afford to go on holiday and manage to hurt yourself.
Interesting. Between the EU and EFTA countries or between the EU and EFTA?
Well it appears a) the individuals signed it and b) EU membership doesn't automatically get you in - well not immediately.
The individual countries definitely sign it, but as a member of one grouping of the other, The whole mechanism of the treaty seems to have operational provisions between those groupings. As a result, if you are a signatory but no longer a member of your intial grouping you seem to be left in limbo so you would appear not to be able to access its provisions. There is provision for countries to move from EEA to EU, but not vice versa.
Have you lost your mind, we're talking about a future where there could be no one (group) capable of standing up to the US. They'd be able to pick us off one by one, and the UK would end up as nothing other than a patsy nation to it.
I made the point earlier that a economically and politically strong Europe is needed for exactly this reason (with the UK as part of it).
Not sure if this has been mentioned. One of the brexitters "alternative facts" on the impact of migration on wages has been exposed as (willful?) misrepresentation of the findings.
Maybe the purpose of brexit is to curtail all those consumer and employee rights that the EU has been working on.
In which case either of Cougar's outcomes are a success.
The whole mechanism of the treaty seems to have operational provisions between those groupings.
Not all the EFTA counties are signed up to the EEA, so I'm not sure that it is that simple.
And not all EEA members are signed up to all the single market structures, for all sectors.
There is room for bespoke deals. We won't get one with May's red lines though.
There is provision for countries to move from EEA to EU, but not vice versa.
Correct. It has never happened. We're in new territory. So we'd need all countries involved to agree.
This won't happen with May's red lines.
Kelvin I have no need to argue about the EEA, I prefer to simply check the facts. You are incorrect however much you protest
Feel free to refrain from arguing in order to understand EFTA, the EEA, how to become a Member (not straightforward) and whether this means that you are a member of the SM in reality, in folklore or not at all. (Clue: I have given you the answer already)
I posted a very good link explaining this about 20 or so pages back
Jambas I think your new friend forgot how salmons was promising to wing it/ lie to the Scottish people before about LoLR etc. !!!!
As long you agree the referendum did not state our future relationship in, or with, the Single Market.
Our limits there are being set by May's own personal red lines, not the public vote.
Brexit Silver Linings: No more Rowan Sorrell built trails...
TJ agreed an iS should setup those things it's just AS said all along he could get by without them, somehow.
Edukator the euro is broken, the contagion from Greece onto Italy etc is not fixable imho. The numbers are just too big. To compare Greece would be the largest sovereign default ever much bigger than Aregntina, quite an achievement fot a country of 11m people. Europe has used protectionism and expansion to try and preserve it's dated Labour laws and to prop up a lifestyle the economies don't justify (UK guilty of this too btw). France is going to have a hell of a shock under Fillon (assuming he wins) and he tries to modernise the country / economy. Strikes etc are going to go to another level with his assault on the huge bloated French state machine.
Did we do this?
Kelvin
Nothing for me to accept. You still seem to. E missing the idea of a negotiation. Plus what the EU is.
Mefty and I have tried to help but enough I am going to watch la la land now
You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?
See above. Made it 100% clear
You know that not being in the EU, but being in the Single Market, is a thing. Do you not?
You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.
Don't fall out boys. Ultimately our opinions don't matter. The pressure we can put on our MPs does.
Go tell them what you want. Be clear that you want The 4 freedoms. Make them believe they will be looking for a new job in 3 years if they don't act in the interests of their constituents and kill off the extreme Brexit proposed by folk who treat being anti-EU as their religion.
And in the meantime stand up to those religious fanatics of Brexit.
You might want to let May know, she seems to have missed that.
She hasn't missed it, it's just not compatible with her personal red lines on FoM and courts.
Europe has used protectionism and expansion to try and preserve it's dated Labour laws
Bloody European labour laws, giving us paid leave, a right to work only a reasonable number of hours and return home from work safely. I so wish I could work 120 hours a week for two quid, and if I lost my arm in an accident that I'd have to pay my employer compensation.
jambalaya - MemberEdukator the euro is broken, the contagion from Greece onto Italy etc is not fixable
I think this may turn out to be cobblers.
The world has known about the awful state of Greek finances for years now. Yet the Euro hasn't imploded. We were [b]absolutely promised[/b] by the likes of the Telegraph this would happen 2 years ago now, and it still hasn't materialized).
And people are still lending money to the Greek government at [url= https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/money/long/html/index.en.html ]rates[/url] that the likes of Dennis Healey or Nigel Lawson would have given their right arm to get.
So no, I still don't buy this. It may all just be fine in the end, despite the best efforts of certain interested parties to convince us otherwise.