Forum menu
Those SHOULD come after the nature of the deal. But we know that!!
No, we don't know that. Only the deluded / those who believe 'they need us etc' think that. If I was to leave my partnership tomorrow other partners would just want to know I'd settled my obligations in accordance with what had been agreed when I came into partnership. My other partners would not be really interested in me trying to settle these obligations by reference to my future employment prospects.
Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists
#brexitgravytrain
If you want three opinion ask two economists though THM seems to exce amongst economists as he can do this without the help of a second .....he is that good
PS any date on the EZ collapse seeing economics is so powerful
Failing that a date at which you stop predicting its demise?
TCLHAO
EU bullying
Hilarious. Just not cricket is it? Did you miss the bit about the long term stability and cohesiveness of the EU being more important to them than selling stuff to us? Doesn't really work does it if one of it's biggest members just ups and leaves with no apparent penalties. If that happens the whole thing will fall apart as the likes of italy, spain and others will all want to leave. The EU don't look at the UK as a 'deep and special' future partner, they look at us as an existential threat.
Who’s in control of the narrative again?
Daily Mail /Telegraph
Coordinate pressure / EU bullying on May over next two weeks to make her acquiesce. Mostly in themselves non stories - but hey, no flights to Europe makes a good headline - but all a coordinated ramping up of pressure.
Pointing out that someone's homework is rubbish isn't bullying.
It’s rare to see Europe in harmony but when it comes to picking on their own they know how to do that well
We aren't 'one of their own' anymore (well soon won't be).
I am flabbergasted that anyone can still think that leaving is a good idea, as every single "reason" they offered has been pretty much discredited.
In years to come this whole, sorry saga will come to be a textbook case for psychologists about the dangers of ego. Just admit you're wrong and back down, rather than blustering on.
We can but hope that this - combined with the nonsense happening in the USA - marks the beginning of the end of toxic masculinity.
. The EU don't look at the UK as a 'deep and special' future partner, they look at us as an existential threat.
Agreed.
More success.
These were supposed to be the easiest trade negotiations ever. Man, the clusterf*** takes on ever more epic proportions.
I don't imagine many of our elected representatives will have read this damning indictment of the Australian economy (nor recognised the parallels with our own terminally declining and over financialised economy).
It's a long read, but well worth the effort: https://medium.com/@matt_11659/matt-barrie-australias-economy-is-a-house-of-cards-6877adb3fb2f
they look at us as an existential threat
Really? How does an impoverished divided and marginalised UK that is being steered by the unholy alliance of Gove and Johnson pose a threat to the existence of EU? I don't think anyone is going to be looking over the fence and thinking that our grass is anything but covered knee deep in s***.
Other way round. If we do well, it makes the EU look unnecessary.
Even if we only do as well as now, the EU isn’t relevant.
So it is in the EU’s interests to see us do badly, even if it hurts them a bit.
So the TNUMTWNT line is sadly fatally flawed even if the economics works out (which I remain to be convinced about).
Interestingly of course offering us a deal (that is of course offered to all EU nations whatever it might be) to get us to stay would be very much in their interests, provided it stops the rot there and then.
If
So I'm struggling with todays Brexit analogy, it's either you just kicked somebody and missed the balls, so now they are beating the shit out of you or you signed a rigid prenup then got the au pair pregnant and have to pay for a divorce, child support and the new kid....
Come 2019 if the current bunch of idiots remain blaming the EU for everything will start to become harder. Those that delivered but failed to acknowledge the real issues will be stuffed. This is not a time for patriotism it's not like pretending England can win the world cup through blind faith and 12 pints.
What is your measure of 'doing well'? I suspect a THM/Banks perception of 'doing well' through and excursion into disaster capitalism is somewhat different to Joe Bod's.
They were always going to blame the EU for the fact the "deal" we wanted was unachievable...whatever happens the people to blame will never be the people who voted for this it will be the EU for shafting us and those who "wont get behind Brexit" who get the blame.
I don’t think THM’s view of doing well or badly is much different to anyone else’s.
Note that he freely states that the EU without the euro was a good deal and we won’t get a better one.
He’s just trying to make the best of a bad situation.
Fair play.
Not that different myself.
That said he may wish to reread his first post on this thread and see if there’s still time to edit it. 😉
to some degree we all are but i think its silly to ask folk to jump on the bus and help steer it off the cliff.
Its obvious many are just going to stand on the sidelines and say I told you this would happen
I dont think there is anything personally i can do that will hep and its obviously far easier for THM to get behind a tory leadership than it is for me to get behind them.
I dont see either approach as intrinsically bad or poor or unethical etc - its free will- but i see little need to insult those who have made a different choice to you.
I Still remain * convinced it was a poor choice
* See what i did there
A interesting link, reluctantlondoner. I got as far a houses being sold at auction and have bookmarked. A lot of parallels can be drawn with the UK except that Australian is heavily reliant on mining and Britain is heavily reliant on financial services which I'm expecting Brexit to severely impact but some here disagree.
IGM. I stand by the first post. What needs changing?
Having a referendum on membership of something that cannot survive in its current format was always a silly idea.
Who’s in control of the narrative again?
Obvious
But do an experiment for UK only - google Brexit and note links on first page.
IGM. I stand by the first post. What needs changing?
Abstaining until the proper vote.This CMD stuff is just a rather silly sideshow.
There is only one question or not - do you want to be part of a Europe that involves full monetary, fiscal and political union - Yes or No
You seem to say that the referendum is going to be irrelevant, we should ignore it and instead wait for the second referendum.
That’s definitely counter to your current view - although I accept you may just have failed to communicate your actual view properly.
But do an experiment for UK only - google Brexit and note links on first page.
Express, Telegraph, Guardian, Independent. In that order.
That may be because I read the Brexy press quite a lot - know your enemy and all.
IGM
You misinterpret - I talked about a proper vote NOT a second referendum.
My point which was repeated a few times - the EU cannot survive in its current format so the vote is/was a sideshow.
For complete clarity I even stated what a vote should have been on. You quote it but ignore it oddly.
But thanks for the test result as that is interesting. When I google brexit the first page is always dominated by guardian and Indy links. I read a lot of moaning press for a laugh so perhaps that explains the google result
THM - I don’t ignore what you suggest the second vote should be on - actually I think it’s reasonably sensible.
I merely note that you though the referendum to be a sideshow and now it’s a vote that must be followed to protect democracy.
I too regard the referendum as not a proper vote (ok now I’m heading for trolling).
Rugby’s good at the moment.
Just misquoting not trolling 😉 find the word second in my post
CMDs rhetioric about reforming Europe was the sideshow.
All clear. No need to misquote even for effect 😉
the EU cannot survive in its current format
This sort of statement is trivial and pointless. It's like saying the Euro is doomed to failure. Fundamentally unfalsifiable because the person making the assertion never indicates the time scale nor what "failure" actually means in reality(*). In the long run we are all dead and the EU has not stayed static in any specific format for more than (mumble) years in the past, so of course it will continue to change and evolve in the future. The ref question was over whether we wanted to be part of that evolution or watch from the sidelines.
(*) If one of the project fear-mongers were to say "the Euro will not be used as a currency in 2 years" then we'd have a basis for debate, and a large bet. But they never do say anything like that, because to them, the "failure" of the euro is a shibboleth rather than a meaningful description of reality.
PS - I could be persuaded by full union by the way. Particularly if the Germans get to run the economy. 😉
I couldn’t because the euro area does not fulfill the criteria for an optimum currency area. Hence it’s failure. But we have discussed this before 😉
THM - there is no misquote. I lifted your words on a cut and paste.
Misinterpret perhaps?
Cross post - yes we’ve discussed it and I wasn’t convinced by your argument- but that’s fine
Sorry, I'm kind of late to this and the thread is frankly too long to read.
@ Team Hurt More - can you please explain for a remoaner like me how all of the negatives already stacking up for the economy and the many more being forecast (OBR), are going to be solved by Brexit.
Furthermore, to nudge me out of my smug, liberal, metropolitan, elite (but really, Just About Managing) bubble, can you explain in concrete terms how my life will be better in 2 years time, 5 years time and 10 years time as a result of Brexit. I could really do with the emotional boost.
I'm still struggling to see how the bogus arguments about sovereignty are going to make a positive contribution to my day-to-day life, or indeed those of the poor saps who voted for this out of understandable but misplaced anger. They should be railing against the financial services industry (in the broadest sense), but we can argue about that for another day.
And @THM, if this task is beyond you, please feel to get @Jambalya or some other Brexiteer to do your bidding - you all seem such hearty, caring types that I am sure you will all have each other's back and a plan to make sure that no-one gets left behind. Oh, wait...
Why me? I voted remain and expect a negative hit. I am preparing for that mainly. The only difference might be that I believe we will come through it without the doomsday scenarios imagined by remoaners. You will have seen the massive exaggeration to date ^
Colour me shocked.
Having dipped in and out of this, at no point THM did I think you were a remoaner or that you thought this was all a terrible idea.
*note to self - you're gonna have to read this more closely and master the detail
True. You will also note that the leavers have been bullied off here so I doubt you will get an answer at all
Yeah, fair enough.
I think the issue is that the Brexit arguments are so intellectually flimsy that there are few people who can make them stand up to offer the reassurance that at least 48% of the voting 70% want.
So, STW is like the rest of the UK... the leavers and their positive visions of the future (assuming they have them, because they must, right?) are M.I.A.
Still, makes me wonder who the true snowflakes are?
Like I said. The "failure" of the euro as a shibboleth rather than as any meaningful description of reality. I'm currently getting paid in euros and quite happy about that.
the leavers have been bullied off here
I weep for all these fragile leavers either on here or in the rest of the country who are being bullied by the force of the bleeding obvious. It's a good sign though. The more they retreat, the more chance there is of reversing this ridiculous decision, because lets be honest, that's what needs to happen.
Not sure how calling people out for basically BS counts as being bullied.
This was part of the problem during the referendum. Essentially unsubstantiated claims were presented as facts so both sides got equal air time. The leavers then went awol the next morning.
I'm currently amused about Gove whining about social media leading to bias. It was fine fine when his 'side' were the culprits.
Anyway onwards and upwards!
DP - oops!
Capn - good job you are a leaver otherwise your comments would otherwise be picked up as being selfish, overly focused on money and ignoring the plight of the young and vulnerable who have been made to suffer on the basis of a flawed ideology.
They even had to suffer proper austerity not our pretend version. Imagine that. Europeans believe that is the right thing to do. Amazingly awful isn’t it?
THM, care to clarify what you mean by the "failure" of the euro, given that it still exists, seems pretty stable and is used by several major economies?
Unemployment, asset bubbles, social deprivation, increased inequality, broken banks, wage pressure, real austerity, democratic deficits, large and sustained problem of non performing loans.
That’s just for starters. As elsewhere covered up by stealing off savers and the prudent
But are those things the fault of the Euro? We have all of that in the UK, and in Australia, neither of which has the Euro. Is it not more about the fact that free-market capitalism is fundamentally flawed, that service economies don't have enough depth to sustain themselves, that trickle down simply doesn't work and that as the proportion of economies dominated by financial services - that we are all told to bow down and worship - inequality and all other measures increase.
Seems to me that we should be looking more to Germany and Sweden than anywhere else for a blueprint of how to run a country successfully. That's not to say they don't have challenges, but on balance I would much rather Britain paid attention to the Swedish and German way, rather than the American way or perish the thought, the Singaporean way.
The euro was built to benefit the Germans at the expense of others. In that respect a tremendous success.
Read Varoufakis on the minotour and why the weak must suffer. Two good books
Odd to want a Swedish housing bubble bet each to their own
The Swedish housing bubble is not as bad as the UK one, and the Swedes have not fully abandoned the sense that a house is a home - whereas here a house has become the core topic of conversation at dinner parties. A house should never be an investment, it should be a machine for living in.
And the property bubble in the UK is directly responsible for our horrible productivity problems. The banks have stopped lending to businesses who would make a sensible return, in favour of perilous mortgage lending.
And businesses have stopped investing in business in favour of property and financial engineering - value extraction rather than value creation.
The Swedes have their issues to sort, but they are still investing in business and people.
The euro was built to benefit the Germans
At last we get to what's really driving this. Can't have those Germans doing better than us. Who won the bloody war after all!
To be honest I have no idea if that is true or not. All sounds a bit conspiratorial to me though. Is it not just the case that Germany in the last 30 years has been much better governed than our fair country, and has taken some long term strategic decisions rather than simply turning everything into a quest for shareholder profits via the shortest route?
Unemployment, asset bubbles, social deprivation, increased inequality, broken banks, wage pressure, real austerity, democratic deficits, large and sustained problem of non performing loans.
Remember THM that when we checked the unemployment figures, particularly youth unemployment, it turned out to have more to do with education culture and how figures were counted.
The rest I have no opinion on whether the Euro was a cause or just incidental - mainly because I haven’t checked and I don’t deal with it daily.
No it didn’t.
Go back and check
No need I study it every day.
Australia, New Zealand, the US and Brazil making noises about the UK not getting into the WTO unless they get favourable deals. And you can be sure that if they do, others will follow. Another brexit fantasy crumbles.
Australia, New Zealand, the US and Brazil
Do "they need us more than we need them" too?
teamhurtmore - Member
No need I study it every day.
Then you’re not as good as you think you are.
Seriously, the majority of the difference in the 15-24 year old range was education and given as a second year at university in Italy I was a year younger than the first years that pretty much makes the difference in Italy at least. In Spain you may have more of a point but it’s still not clear cut.
However If you’re sure of yourself then there’s no need entertain my thoughts - of course the truly confident would consider them.
Unemployment, asset bubbles, social deprivation, increased inequality, broken banks, wage pressure, real austerity, democratic deficits, large and sustained problem of non performing loans.
THM, are you seriously claiming that none of these things exist in the UK?
You will also note that the leavers have been bullied off here so I doubt you will get an answer at all.
No. They have not. Everyone is challenged when they post here, no matter their views. Some don't like their views on this subject matter being scrutinised. On all sides.
THM, are you seriously claiming that none of these things exist in the UK?
Sterling failure is fine. It's "our" failure.
the leavers have been bullied off here
They won we lost I just want to see what their victory actually looks like.
and we note that you have bullied someone of here yet you still feel the need to lectures others 🙄note that the leavers have been bullied off here
WHen it was you did you apologise to them ?offer an olive branch?say how bad this was ? They name checked you so I assume you must have?
DO say what you did seeing as bullying is so bad and you despise hypocrites. What did you do again?
HFCAY
Over 40 leavers declared they would be voting out in the first pages of this thread. Some have left the forum completely, some rarely post on politics threads anyhow. Some were people theat were already in the habit of making fools of themselves and some have made fools of themselves over the course of this thread. A tiny number continue to contribute.
The arguments in favour either don't stand up to scrutiny or demonstrate character traits that people are rightly ashamed to air in public.
Having dipped in and out of this, at no point THM did I think you were a remoaner or that you thought this was all a terrible idea.
Ah you haven't been watching closely. THM was indeed a remainer but feels the correct approach in a democratic society is to accept the will of the people and move on, accommodating the result in the best way possible. I, on the other hand, am a crotchety, cynical, old **** who will not shift from my stance that the whole thing is disastrous and should be opposed at all cost.
Aye that is it in a nutshell and both are fine within a democracy
the rest is just the noise of someone going on about name calling and the need for respectful debate via the method of insults and name calling.
Personally I think jamby got "bullied" with facts and the personal stuff was due to the repetition of claims we all knew were untrue.
I think it would help if we a just had a debate as this is just sniping around a theme
Some magnificent whataboutery here https://eand.co/the-rise-and-fall-of-nations-6ff1d9a6b044 to combat THM's whataboutery yesterday with regards to Sweden's housing bubble.
It's a good piece from American economist Umair Haque - he's always worth reading.
[img] 
[/img]The Politburo would like to remind people that discussion needs to stop.
#Brexit #ForThePeopleToOpressThePeople
Ireland will veto anything that involves a hard border. Is that good or bad?
Since the UK has already ruled out a hard border between NI and RoI, there's no need for Ireland to use their veto.
All we are waiting for is the solution that achieves a hard border between France and England, that does not involve a hard border between France and RoI, or Roi and NI, or NI and England. Seems easy enough. I'm sure THM will be along shortly to explain how the "grown-ups" are working it all out in secret without bothering our tiny minds over the details.
Not in this case sadly
Fox is however saying - correctly for a change - that this should be resolved after nature of trade deal is agreed.
You can apply your minds - tiny or otherwise - where you wish. Thought is free unless you choose to suppress it 😉
Of course the Irish headlines have no link to domestic difficulties at the moment....,
Ireland will veto anything that involves a hard border. Is that good or bad?
You've got it all wrong. Liam Fox has said we will veto a soft border if we don't get the trade deal we want. What actual planet are these idiots on? The hubris and arrogance is astonishing. And they have the cheek to moan about the EU holding our fair island to ransom.
teamhurtmore - MemberOf course the Irish headlines have no link to domestic difficulties at the moment....,
I've not read anything to suggest that the political imbroglio relating to an enquiry into an Garda whistleblower has any link to the line on Brexit, perhaps you could link to this theory?
Or do you mean the UK brexit buffoons need a scapegoat in the form of the RoI for their inability to obtain a deal?
Best of luck persuading the Irish and the EU to accept this position.Fox is however saying - correctly for a change - that this should be resolved after nature of trade deal is agreed.
why trade deal first ?
Have a border between NI and the UK mainland manned by EU customs and I think trade negotiations can start. If that is not he case I think no deal is better than a bad deal for the EU and Ireland so no trade negotiations should proceed until the UK signs up to that.
Because everything follows from that. Not the other way round.
Once we know the terms under which we will maintain ACCESS TO the single market the rest can be discussed. Silly to agree other stuff if we don’t know this first.
Worth a read (probably not worth a read for Quitlings, especially the ones that one day process not to have a clue about Irish politics and and on another, nose-tappingly suggest that there are ulterior motives at play for their position on Brexit 🙄 ). Fintan O’Toole writes for The irish Times, but had this opinion piece on The Guardian’s website.
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/hard-won-kinship-between-britain-and-ireland-brexit-idiocy ]The hard-won kinship between Britain and Ireland is threatened by Brexit idiocy.[/url]
And on the day that this appeared in The Telegraph.
[url= https://s7.postimg.org/okobjbevv/951500_BE-_B68_F-448_F-97_B6-9_D6_DD7_FBF75_A.jp g" target="_blank">https://s7.postimg.org/okobjbevv/951500_BE-_B68_F-448_F-97_B6-9_D6_DD7_FBF75_A.jp g"/> [/img][/url]
For those thinking I might be outraged, I’m not. A little *sigh*, offended, yes. A bit “Oh FFS, is this the new focus for Brexiteers’ and Quitlings’ blame-everybody-else-but-ourselves-for-our-own-incompetence?” Yep, for sure.
Of course, the fact that the cartoon needs explaining shows how shit it is.
Once we know the terms under which we will maintain ACCESS TO the single market the rest can be discussed. Silly to agree other stuff if we don’t know this first.
Only if you think playing fast and loose with peace and stability in NI is acceptable - presumably you do. You do believe in the existence of dinosaurs?
You do believe in the existence of dinosaurs?
Well, I suppose a crocodile is one of nearest things we have to a living dinosaur - and we know that the leader of the bunch of crackpots currently propping up the Tories certainly believes in them. 🙂
[quote=teamhurtmore ]Because everything follows from that. Not the other way round.
Once we know the terms under which we will maintain ACCESS TO the single market the rest can be discussed. Silly to agree other stuff if we don’t know this first.
The problem is those whose market we want to free trade with dont agree and they are making the rules
What you or Fox says is irrelevant to them you can play their game or not but you cannot make up the rules of the game. We need to learn this very very quickly
deadlydarcy - Member
...especially the ones that one day process not to have a clue about Irish politics and and on another, nose-tappingly suggest that there are ulterior motives at play for their position on Brexit ).
To be fair the nose tapping suggestion does indicate that he doesn't have a clue about Irish politics.
Quality sneering 😉
Back your previous comment up then 😉
Of course the Irish headlines have no link to domestic difficulties at the moment....
Is this a reference to the DUP propping up our government?