With Merkel looking weak & wobbly does that mean Macron is now the boss?..

Or will it stall Brexit talks further?

Either way instability in Germany's another win for Putin!

Yeah I was thinking the same thing kimbers. I wonder if Mother Russia's fingerprints will be found on AfD funding or social media too.

The posse merely travel from victim to victim and all sanctioned from above

What bollox.

To be fair, we have very little evidence that THM does any more than that.

This simply is not true. He has often referenced plenty of material directly, not sourced via newspapers/media,

[i][ there is no "posse" ][/i]

This simply is not true. He has often referenced plenty of material directly, not sourced via newspapers/media,

Conveniently making it very difficult to fact check.

Anyway, back to the news... https://pharmaphorum.com/news/european-medicines-agency-relocation/

mindbogglingly expensive, and hugely harmful

#brexitinanutshell

And the good news just keeps on coming.....

[url= http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-passporting-rights-banks-financial-services-michel-barnier-speech-talks-david-davis-a8064836.html ]UK Banks will lose passporting rights says Barnier[/url]

It's all ok though Theresa is having a meeting today with Boris and Gove to see what fresh insanity they're cooking up this week

Non of this is happening / will happen according to our right wing zealots on here.

I think the issue is the tories and their supporters live ( like many of us) in an echo chamber but for these guys its more extreme. Anything that does not fit the party line is ignored / flatly denied. anything that can be twisted to fit their assertions is lauded, any outlier that fits their ideology is taken as correct and the other 99% of things that don't are seen as outliers.
See Boris with his fingers in his ears literally refusing to listen to things that don't agree with him

See what happened with the statements from the EU last month - clearly designed to support May in her fight with the extremist leavers, Taken as absolute proof there would be trade talks this month, now its obvious there will be no trade talks

Or the idea now being floated that May will not be allowed to offer more money by her own ministers unless we know what trade deal we will get first. simply not going to happen

Binners - not only will passporting rights be lost - as is obvious but Barnier and the rest have already spotted that the banks want to put empty shell operations in the EU but still run everything from the UK - thus the EU have said this is not acceptable - IT systems and governance must be in the EU so it comes under EU regulation

Nice bluff from Barnier

As anyone who understands banking knows, the U.K. banks are very well prepared for this. It's still to be determined of course but even if we move to third country equivalence, they already have subsidiaries in Europe which give them passporting rights regardless and the two that don't are setting then up now. So total non story (other than movements of some staff, which again has been exagerated for effect).. Still gets folk frothy in their ignorance of the facts.

Of course, what Barnier conveniently misses is that the real losers in the fragmentation of European wholesale markets are the European corporates and households who will have access to less liquid markets at higher costs. Plus it affects European banks too!! Who would have thought it....

Let the exagerated headlines continue though - sells papers and keep the moaners happy.

Speaking in Brussels on Monday Michel Barnier said that "Brexit means Brexit, everywhere"

He's just trolling TM now. I'm beginning to think that his underlying strategy is to assist the implosion of the UK government by outraging either the remainers (see above) or the Brexit eye-swivellers (divorce bill etc) and setting them fighting like rats in a sack.

I guess he thinks that whatever emerges from the burning wreckage will either be in full retreat from Brexit or more compliant in negotiations. He's nearly seen off Davis now.

Let the exagerated headlines continue though - sells papers and keep the moaners happy.

What you reckon 10 years or more to break even on this one?

an extra 10 years of brexit enforced austerity will be absolutely bearable for those in food bank queues........ knowing that theyve got blue passports

Have you totted up the cost of brexit yet? The financial settlement along is going to cause problems to the UK in the short term, the cost of duplication is going to be high. What you reckon 10 years or more to break even on this one?

Talking to a mate who's contracting for one of the larger government dept's, all staff have now been told that there's basically nothing else on the agenda for the foreseeable future, except duplicating existing EU systems, and it's going to cost truly eye-watering sums of money. And thats if it all goes to plan. Which I'm sure it will, as the government's record of delivering IT projects on time and on budget is exemplary

Yay for taking back control!

"Lets take £350 million a week from the NHS and spend it on Brexit"

Just doesn't have the same ring to it when it's true...

Reckon anyone on the negotiating side has the balls to stand up in parliament and say the true cost?

Hang on Mike, we are only honouring existing obligations aren't we 😉 ?

Good spot Martin. The EU is in control of the narrative (both the false and the true) and have done a brilliantly job and dividing the UK with their non-negotiating strategy. Shows their experience of shitting on others from a great height. We were warned but chose to ignore. And all those folk, thinking that they are being reasonable have swallowed it hook, line and sinker. A - Mazing darling

Yes THM, the UK will pay and get nothing in return for that money.
The UK pay that money now not when it is due
The [s]UK[/s] brexiters "promised" to pay the money the EU pays to UK places too

On to of that the UK pays to duplicate countless EU organisations.

I'll repeat

Reckon anyone on the negotiating side has the balls to stand up in parliament and say the true cost?

Have you totted up the cost of brexit yet?

No break even sadly. Ever. Well as ever as you get in a world where nothing is constant.
This morning’s reports of £800 per annum cost based on increased inflation (and remember you actually need deflation or devaluation to get that back) and growth we could have had so far is... wait for it...

£461m a week. Up from £346m a week not so long ago.

So by my reckoning even if we stopped paying the EU £350m a week (obviously we can’t because we don’t) and we had no settling of our commitments as we leave (£20b? 40? 60?) then the Brexies still owe us £100m a week or so.

#Strong politics not sturdy prosperity.

Have you missed the line where the UK only has a share of EU liabilities but not assets. They are brilliant in their cheek!!

PS let’s assume that report’s an exaggeration. It’s still not a wise financial decision.

For discussion - should Brexies (just the leaders obviously) be regarded as traitors to Britain? 😉

They are brilliant in their cheek!!

On a realistic note, no matter what figure May has in mind, unless its £0.00, does anyone believe she's got a cat in hells chance of getting it past Boris 'Go Whistle' Johnson, and the rest of the hard Brexit headbangers?

THM - go on, assets, there are assets, but it is less clear that they are all shared, as opposed to club assets that are held by the club for club members use.

Like my rugby club’s clubhouse. It was built while I was a member, but I don’t get a piece of it when I leave. The commitment I made to pay my subs until the end of the season on the other hand remains even though I left at Christmas.

If you list them (you’ll be far better at that than me) we can discuss them one by one.

I doubt it Binners - but even that is not the main sticking point. Any transitional agreement means the ECJ keeping jueisdiction - something May had made one of her red lines - now when the leavers find that out I think there will be some heads explode scanners style

IGM a balance sheet has to balance. I know the gNats tried to get way with this nonsense before too, but you can't get away from the fact. The EU has tried lots of tricks - just look at the discount rate applied to pension liabilities. No really!?! They clearly think we are total fools 😉

Not that the hook,line and sinker brigade worry about this.

Good spot Martin. The EU is in control of the narrative (both the false and the true) and have done a brilliantly job and dividing the UK with their non-negotiating strategy. Shows their experience of shitting on others from a great height. We were warned but chose to ignore. And all those folk, thinking that they are being reasonable have swallowed it hook, line and sinker. A - Mazing darling

Of course they're being reasonable. They are negotiating on behalf of the 27 remaining member states to get what they think is the best outcome for those. Reasonable-ness does not mean 'fairness', especially to the entity you're negotiating with. You're apparently in business - do you approach negotiations primarily with fairness in mind, or your advantage?

The mistake of Brexit supporters is to swallow the 'they need us more than we need them' bullshit hook, line and sinker.

Clearly. They. Don't. That's one #projectfear that has no basis in reality. Our government still claims that they are dependent, desperate for a deal. But they smell opportunity. It is the UK which is dependent, and increasingly desperate.

No really!?! They clearly think we are total fools

Not that the hook,line and sinker brigade worry about this.

The Patriot
In 1774, he printed The Patriot, a critique of what he viewed as false patriotism. On the evening of 7 April 1775, he made the famous statement, "Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel."[8] This line was not, as widely believed, about patriotism in general, but the false use of the term "patriotism" by William Pitt, 1st Earl of Chatham (the patriot-minister) and his supporters. Johnson opposed "self-professed patriots" in general, but valued what he considered "true" self-professed patriotism.[9]

Anyway years until the UK is better off, whats your opening bid?

They clearly think we are total fools

God only knows how they've come to that conclusion!

[img] ?w=960[/img]

jagain - Member
seosamh77 - Member
There weren't ment to be back channels to the IRA in the 70/80s either TJ.

I doubt animosity is that bad that they aren't talking.

We knew about those back channels at the time.

As I said - I am sure junior folk are talking but the idea that behind the scenes its all going well in some secret parallel set of negotiations is nonsense.

well I agree with the latter point, ie not going well.

Flight boarding now IGM but Google alex barber/barker piece in yesterday's FT as a start.

Not that the hook,line and sinker brigade worry about this.

Who are this brigade? People who voted Leave after being told that the EU would be ready to give us a quick deal, giving us all the benefits of SM & CU, but allow us to sign our own trade deals that otherwise wouldn't be available to us? The same people who now think that the reality of the process of getting a deal with a bigger trading partner proves that our partners are just out to punish us? The same people who think that the problems of the land border in Ireland are just something dreamt up by mutineers and traitors to block us getting whatever deal it is we might be seeking? The people who ignore that there are major benefits of membership of the EU… and then when we stand to lose said benefits, think that it is the fault of the other members of the EU, and nothing to do with the fact that "we" have chosen to leave the EU, and, that the government translates that "wish" into a decision to Leave all the European institutions, rather than seek to minimise the extent of our withdrawal?

EU said €86bn +/-

We said €20bn +/-

Looks like they'll settle. For €40bn +/-

Just get on with it?

Problem is that the Brexiters are still beating the war drum

EU can go whistle- etc etc

Just making things harder for EU to not lose face and much harder for May to about the true cost

Of Course Brexies don't want to admit that they lied to the public that ' we'd hold all the cards' 'easiest trade deal in history' etc

All this expensive delay is fueled by brexies & the press, yet still us remoaners get the blame (even from thm!)

A few hundreds pages ago when I was last involved in this thread I think I offered the opinion that wise heads would prevail and a deal would be done which doesn't look too different to the status quo. Sadly I think this is impossible now. Seems to me there are now only two outcomes. We cancel the whole thing and stay in, or we leave with no deal. The first comes at huge political cost for all parties but economic common sense, the second a political and economic crisis the likes of which I don't think anyone can quite imagine.

Kimbers. I'll bet you the 40 bn is not enough to settle. For the EU what they have asked for is the minimum they will accept. Not a figure to bargain from

dazh - I quite agree apart from to me it was obvious right from the beginning that no deal would or could be struck. anything that will satisfy the EU is not in Mays power to give

Kimbers. I'll bet you the 40 bn is not enough to settle. For the EU what they have asked for is the minimum they will accept. Not a figure to bargain from

Will that £40Bn include ongoing payments for continued access to the single market?

oldnpastit. I assumed one off payment to settle debts / commitments already made. If there are ongoing payments to be made for continuing access then the sums would be different

dazh, personal opinion yes their are two options. hard or none,

However the cost, 25%-ish of the population care strongly for or anti brexit. the majority really don't care as long as they get their booze cruises, have a job, can sit down in front of X-factor etc.

Leave and the fallout will in my opinion be worse, simply because the 50% in the middle will discover the true costs of brexit. At the moment they are frogs in a sauce pan and the water is slowly getting hotter. A phased transistion would let them boil and not see it happen. A cliff edge on the other hand.

Now if we disregard the referendum, it will seriously piss off 25%, but the 50% who really don't care will carry on as before.

As an aside, the UK screwed up the moment it triggered A50, from that moment the UK lost. Without a clear plan there will be no good outcome. It doesn't matter what the UK does now there simply is no time to get a "good" deal. We either revoke A50 or crash and burn.

IGM a balance sheet has to balance.

Agreed. My point was that as a club member the clubhouse was never on my balance sheet - it was on the club’s.

In my game we might ask a customer to pay for a new substation to supply their factory - but it would be on our balance sheet (at zero value if they paid) not on theirs.

Before one can talk about assets and balance sheets, one needs to establish rights and ownership.

I’ll google when I get the chance.

I think that the general idea was that everyone would get all shouty for a while and then Merkel would twist some arms in a back room and everyone would sign something that the technical chaps worked on in secret.

That's working out perfectly ...

technical chaps worked on in secret.

That's working out perfectly ...

If it's a secret, how do you know?

In my game we might ask a customer to pay for a new substation to supply their factory - but it would be on our balance sheet (at zero value if they paid) not on theirs.

Would be surprised Accounting best practice is to gross up such things - so you credit cost of asset to income and debit the balance sheet to record the asset. Not important when both on revenue account, but becomes material when there is capitalisation.

The logical analysis of the money question is, if the EU are to be believed and this represented liabilities accrued to date, is that our past cash contributions significantly understate the cost of the EU to the UK so the future savings will be even greater.

If it's a secret, how do you know?

Damn. I knew there was a flaw 🙁

Nice nonsense Mefty.

Were we paying too little or too much for EU membership?

What period are you assuming our "liabilities" extend over?

As an aside, the UK screwed up the moment it triggered A50

I think you'll find it was earlier than that. It all points to that incompetent ex-home secretary, now incompetent PM.

Up until October 2016 the UK could have been flexible when it came to negotiation, but then the current PM performed a couple of actions as follows:

Tory party conference: Leave the CU, ECJ, the SM. Before the speech, there were no "red lines" and no absolutes.

March 2017: "Trigger" Article 50. Far too early to do so.

These actions were all about playing to the gallery, and have effectively backed the UK's negotiation strategy into a corner, paralyzing the Government. Of course for the hard brexiters this is dream land.

They also get to blame the EU for being "inflexible."

As a matter of Law, the UK will leave the EU on March 29th 2019 unless all parties can agree on something else.

Brexit is a legal process, nothing more, if it was a "soft brexit", it would have taken a decade to completely leave, leaving a door open to remain. No wonder the hardliners want to leave with no deal. But this will also be their undoing.

Hard or soft, Brexit will bury Brexit, its cheerleaders, and those who wrongly feel they must go along with it are merely digging their own graves.

I see the Brexit Minister Lord Callanan has just given a personal statement in the House of Lords to correct himself on the revocability of Article 50, having wrongly claimed in the Lords last week that the UK could not legally revoke it.

Piece by piece...

Perfectly put El-bent…

And, right back then, when so many people on this thread pointed out that [b]May's redlines[/b] where not what was voted for, or had support across the country, and seriously limited our negotiation options… THM just kept assuring us they would turn into [b]pinklines[/b]… perhaps they will… but what damage will occur as the timescales get smaller? And who do those compressing timelines empower most, our negotiators, or those of the EU?

Brexit will bury Brexit

I still think this is very, very unlikely. There is still the political will in the UK to carry out Brexit despite the damage, and crazily, despite it looking like nothing promised for or voted for. There may be a swing against it once we have one deal to be asked to get behind, rather than multiple conflicting and ever shifting ones, so we should get a vote on the final deal… but I still think that would only be won narrowly one way or the other, and still settle nothing long term.

It’s not legally clear cut either way

But it ultimately is an EU decision now although they have indicated that they would welcome a change of mind - wonder why £££s ?

good summary el-bent

brexit was a bad idea thats being very badly executed

Kelvin - the “they didn’t tell us” argument is a bit sad especially when it comes to the SM/CU. You only had to do a little reading to understand what giving up membership of the EU means. I posted links to the HoL report many times which explained it all clearly.

To claim surprise at the red/pink lines is disingenuous unless playing the “thicko” card again

The fragility of Brexit is obvious in the screeching headlines of the millionaire-owned press. I wasn't too surprised to the Daily Heil claim that supreme court judges were "enemies of the people", but the Telegraph's public pillorying of the fifteen rebel conservatives was a shock.

The leaked letter to the PM, which somehow made it to the pages of the rabidly pro-Brexit Daily Heil and in no way implicates Sarah Vine and her cabinet minister husband, Michael Gove is very clear about the need to impose party discipline on the Chancellor.

We know that Brexit will be damaging socially, economically and for national prestige. Even the Brexiteers accept that, their game plan is more about bringing a comprehensive economic restructure which will be both very painful and blame free - "the will of the people".

Also, the Conservative Party has staked it's very future upon Brexit.

What is the Labour Party position?

Ah, very good question THM.

The Labour Party seem to be content watching the Conservatives self-immolate from the sidelines. Keir Starmer is the man I want negotiating on my side, but it remains to be seen whether it's a sop to the Remainers like myself who support Labour, or whether they're actually serious about backing out. Corbyn claims that he'd vote Remain, but some big beasts in the party like McDonnell want us to leave.

At the moment, Labour are all that we have.

the “they didn’t tell us” argument is a bit sad especially when it comes to the SM/CU. You only had to do a little reading to understand what giving up membership of the EU means.

So they are remaining as[b] redlines [/b]now then THM? No longer predicted to turn into [b]pinklines[/b]?

I hope / suspect that this government will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions. Hardliners will not accept ECJ jurisdiction, Transition arrangements require this. They are so split that there is nothing that the tories can unite behind There are a whole series of such issue that the tories are so split on that the collapse will happen at some point. Hopefully before the damage is too great

Election time, Corbyn short of a majority requiring lib dems / SNP support. Their price will be a new referendum ( which also nicely disguises splits in labour) At this point the disaster that leaving the EU is so obvious and no more scope for have cake and eat it from the leavers that we vote strongly remain

whole thing scrapped. Lots of grovelling to the EU, we get most of what we had before this whole nonsense started

@TJ

That is the absolute best case scenario. I hope that it comes to pass.

So they are remaining as redlines now then THM? No longer predicted to turn into pinklines?

It’s a negotiation 😯

Both sides have moved already. We have moved a bit further. More fudging to go before the end game. Watch this space. Only the nutters on either side think that compromise doesn’t happen or that deals are not struck behind the scenes

The rest is just noise and playing to the baying media mob that needs to be fed

the “they didn’t tell us” argument is a bit sad especially when it comes to the SM/CU

Well, they couldn't tell us what the final deal would look like. No one could. No one can now. People are still supporting multiple, contractory, possible deals (and no deals), even inside the government.

Those stupid little yellow faces again. I think I'm feeding you.

Of course not. There has been no precident and the treaty was not written with someone leaving in mind

There are four basic options plus a combination of each. The only unknown is what permutation we will end up with. We know the weaknesses of each off the shelf option hence we are attempting - not very well - to negotiate a new arrangement. Some might call it bespoke 😉

No-one that I know who voted out has a scooby do what it means.

More like, they didn't even care. It was all about "sovereignty" and sticking two fingers up to the corrupt meddling europeans.

Possibly THM mixes with a better class of brexiter.

I'm sure there were some who thought about it, but I haven't met any myself. To be fair, most of the remainers didn't look into it too deeply either, but at least they didn't vote to **** up the social, political, economic, legal and economic structure of the country on a whim.

Put [b]the final deal vs continued membership[/b] to the voters then, in some form.

We’ve done the continued membership

We lost that one

mefty - Member

Would be surprised

Be surprised. It’s a service I offer.

Trust me after 25 years of doing it, I have some idea what I’m talking about.
And yes you are correct on standard practice - however the point is that if there is standard practice there is also non-standard practice. I find it quite funny when I meet folk from a financing background and we explain how it works, they say no it doesn’t and they won’t do a deal with us on that basis, and we say fine but you might want to take some advice.
Trying googling common connections charging methodology for more surprises.

However the thing to note is just because you paid for something doesn’t mean you own it.

More like, they didn't even care. It was all about "sovereignty" and sticking two fingers up to the corrupt meddling europeans.

There’s a lot of truth in that. Like the Scottish GNats there are many who simply said bugger the economic consequences - there’s more to life than economics after all - we simply don’t want to be members of the EU. In one case that argument was praised, in the other it is vilified. How odd.

Brave, worthy Scots or thicko Brexshiteers!!!

Well THM, I don’t really like nationalism even when it is the finest nationalism in the world (unless it’s on the rugby field - we almost had the Kiwis)

Stop it with this[i] "thickos" [/i]nonsense. [b]No one [/b]knows what the exit and trade deals will be. At the last referendum [b]no one[/b] voted with the knowledge of the relationship that would replace membership.

No-one that I know who voted out has a scooby do what it means.

My brexiter bud actually mentioned this weekend what was the point on going on with it as he/they weren’t getting what they wanted.

Importantly, why must they be forced to accept a deal they don't want?

teamhurtmore - Member
More like, they didn't even care. It was all about "sovereignty" and sticking two fingers up to the corrupt meddling europeans.
There’s a lot of truth in that. Like the Scottish GNats there are many who simply said bugger the economic consequences - there’s more to life than economics after all - we simply don’t want to be members of the EU. In one case that argument was praised, in the other it is vilified. How odd.

Brave, worthy Scots or thicko Brexshiteers!!

You still peddling that line, 62% of scots voting for the EU tells you what nonsense you speak. An IS would be in the EU.

An outward looking IS is entirely different from inward looking brexit. No matter how many times you try to conflate them.

Given brexit, you could even say how we viewed politics in England in 2014 and where it was going is entirely vindicated.

Joe, I fear that you are mixing up the votes. ( edit noted though 😉 )

Kelvin, it's not me using the thcko argument. Go back a few pages and you see the reall culprits in all their glory.

Yup - THMs bias shines thru - along with his complete ignorance of scots politics

teamhurtmore - Member
Joe, I fear that you are mixing up the votes.

how so?

I see the electoral commision is once again reopening the investigation into Vote Leave, Veterans for Britain, and former fashion student darren grimes who was given £625,000 by vote Leave.

Most of which was spent on Canadian data consultants AggregateIQ, a subsidiary of Cambridge Analytica.

TJ that would be a staggering coincidence

I think THM May be referring to the stats that suggest better educated folk on average are less likely to vote for Brexit.
While this is true, perhaps we (he?) shouldn’t refer to the less well educated as thickos.
And my apologies if I have. I can get a little ranty on occasion.

On the contrary Igm, it's the remoaners on here that play the thicko card - they were too thick to understand, to thick to be allowed to have a say, too thick to realise they were being lied to etc. All rather - what's the word - patronising and sneering don't you think.

In a democracy everyone's say is equal. That's how it works unless you are undemocratic and don't like the result of course, Even those force fed a diet of WoS and who didn't understand the basics of how currencies work were still allowed to have their say after all....

Joe, since you have edited your whole comment, it's not worth pursuing. 😉

point wasn't that different, just expanded on the original! 😆