Oh, I though that were secondary issues that led on from the primary one - what form of access do we want?
They have had me fooled then.
im just quoting the guy that drafted A50...
“Article 50 is not about trade, it is about divorce. It’s about paying the bills, dividing the property. The money negotiation is going to be a very nasty negotiation,” [Kerr] said at a lecture in Glasgow. He predicted that there would be “no serious negotiations before the autumn”, adding that he expected “this calendar year will be mainly spent in a furious battle about money”.Lord Kerr, who has served as UK ambassador to both the EU and the US, said that if no agreement was reached on the terms of Brexit, and no extension to the talks was agreed, the UK would have to leave anyway.
He said the chances of this could be “as much as 25 per cent or maybe more”, adding: “I think there may actually be a one in three chance of no deal.”
Berlin to send back thousands of British Hipsters 🙂
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@kimbers the guy that drafted A50 - impartial not ! You need to understand that manynof us think a quick clean break is best. As TMH says it's the biggest shock but in many many scenarios that's the best way. The EU is desperate to "kick the can down the road" - they need EU budget black holes and €10bn net in tariffs on their goods like a hole in the head. Prior poster talked about BMW buyers being price insenstive (not true imo) but the issue is Volkswagen, Skoda, Renault etc. German trade is already down 5% due to £/€ alone add same move again in tariffs and that's a very big problem for an country facing €20-40bn in migrant costs per anum, demands for increase in military spending of similar amount (Trump/NATO) plus having acknowledge that the €100bn gifted to Greece isn't coming back
[I]First of all the 2 years of A50 negotiations arent about trade,[/I]
It will include 'trade' but the main focus will be political as that'll be the profession of the people doing the negotiations (on BOTH sides).
Any deal has to be acceptable 'politically', otherwise either/both side will be brought to task (by the media and their political opponents).
Interesting kimbers - thx for the link. A good point. I guess that's right. A50 itself is about commencing negotiations and serving notice of our intention to leave (again). But I would still argue that utltimately this is still all about trade - [b]specifically its about the nature of our access to the single market. [/b]
May has effectively ruled out EEA, partially ruled our CU and is currently sitting straddling FTA and CU with WTO being a foolhardy back stop. Hence in my mind, it remains at the core - all about trade
But you are correct - precision is needed when talking about these things!!
they need EU budget black holes and €10bn net in tariffs on their goods like a hole in the head.
So given those concerns, how does forcing that on them with a "quick clean break" make it more likely we get a good deal and more likely that the EU will survive us leaving?
Jambas we all need Brexshit like a hole in the head
At the moment, its about minimising the size of the hole
they need EU budget black holes and €10bn net in tariffs on their goods like a hole in the head.
remind me again who pays the 10bn? Is it Uk consumers?
Given the rebate and the amount actually paid to the UK it's actually a fraction of the GDP of nations as it was a tiny fraction of the UK's GDP.
As the retort to Orange Trump went, Europe might buy more American cars if they were not all so shit, the bigger worry would be the massive drop in the pound making things more expensive
Not project fear just common sense/law of unintended consequences- anyway, I think that we are slightly misunderstanding each other, so will park this one cougs.
I just mean that what we're discussing here is pretty much what we said before the referendum that we thought might happen, and our concerns were dismissed as fear-mongering.
In hindsight I don't really think "project fear" was an effort to scare people, rather it was mostly people being bloody scared.
There seems to be an assumption that business will continue as usual while the 2 year A50 process goes through, and then during any trade deal negotiations afterwards.
Businesses are not going to hang around and wait
E.g. markets will shift, we might be a large buyer of German cars right now, but that might not be the case in 2, 3, 5 years. If we get strapped for cash due to a economic downturn (short or long term), we're likely to buy far fewer German cars (one example of many).
E.g.2 international businesses may shift location to more stable/certain location (look at HSBC and Toyota might go the same way).
The net effect of this is that it may erode the UK strength in negotiation and general relevance. To go to the first example, if the market for German cars shifts elsewhere then the importance of a trade deal is proportionally less important.
To me it seems like the proposed strategy wants to put the UK economic position (which is pretty buoyant still) in stasis, switch about the rules/relationships etc. and then continue on as if nothing happened. Any sane person knows that is likely impossible.
I sincerely hope so.Though what the dimwits will do when they realise that they still haven't got a job/council house/hospital bed is another question.
So people of low intelligence were fooled into voting Brexit by a populist campaign and you hope they suffer. They are not to blame (not everyone is intelligent), the blame is with the BS leave campaign that did a better job of convincing people.
@mike tariffs are normally bourne by a mix of consumers and companies. Japanese and Koreans still sell plenty of cars here.
make it more likely we get a good deal and more likely that the EU will survive us leaving?
I think impending gloom indeed helps us achieve a better deal. The EU faces a choice between some pain & humble pie or likely collapse. The humble pie on Brexit will be tiny compared to that required on Shengen and especially the €.
It was never the UK's role to go down with Junker's ship
I just mean that what we're discussing here is pretty much what we said before the referendum that we thought might happen, and our concerns were dismissed as fear-mongering.
True - i/we misunderstood the earlier posts. Cheers. As I said, I regret that people who voted leave are also those who are more likely to suffer the adverse consequences.
Back on track now 😉
kerley - Memberthe blame is with the BS leave campaign that did a better job of convincing people.
i blame Labour, for gifting the issue of immigration entirely into the hands of jingoistic bastards.
You need to understand that manynof us think a quick clean break is best
You need to understand that many of us think leaving is idiotic.
@cougar No one on the Remain side was predicting the UK would have best growth in the G7. As Lagrande (IMF) said yesterday they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer. They didn't take into account that the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
Bit silly isn't it. The only people in favour are people who know cock all about how things work, and people whose jobs depend on people who know cock all.
And I know I'm not being constructive with comments like these. *sigh*
they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer.
... that we're only mostly ****ed rather than completely?
People do love their credit cards.
the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
That's probably the most blindingly accurate thing you've ever written on here.
[quote=thecaptain ]a key component of that is to discourage anyone else from leaving even if if costs them in purely economic terms...
Discouraging others from leaving is quite important for the economy of the EU, so whilst there might be a negative economic effect on the EU from negotiating tough, you don't need to look far into the future for it to be advantageous to them even in purely economic terms (ie it might be worse than it was, but not as bad as if they hadn't).
[quote=jambalaya ]I think impending gloom indeed helps us achieve a better deal. The EU faces a choice between some pain & humble pie or likely collapse.
Hmm, so given the above, explain to me how giving the UK a good deal helps prevent the collapse of the EU?
And I know I'm not being constructive with comments like these. *sigh*
If Maybot cant get her own minsters to stop with silly name calling (it took johnson,javid & gove less than 24hrs to go against that message)
why should us remoaning citizens on nowhere be expected to fake enthusiasm?
bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer.
And their willingness in general to plumb new depths of personal debt which will have to be paid back at some point.....excellent - borrow your way out of the pending ****storm.
Surely it is an absolute disgrace that this issue ever went to a public vote.
And surely it is a fact that 90% of the UK population have no idea what the implications of leave/ stay are. Myself included.
Why is nobody held accountable?
@cougar No one on the Remain side was predicting the UK would have best growth in the G7. As Lagrande (IMF) said yesterday they totally underestimated the bouyancy amd resiliance of the UK consumer. They didn't take into account that the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
Or (1) that we have just had the massive stimulus of a cut in rates and a 20% devaluation in £ and (2) Brexshit hasn't happened yet
Future growth forecasts are now being revised down - as the institution that you quote noted that the negative impact of Brexshit hasnt gone away, its merely delayed
[quote=Cougar ]
the Leavers are delighted and hugely optimistic
That's probably the most blindingly accurate thing you've ever written on here.
Indeed - it is interesting to see how bullish the Brexiteers are, seemingly ignoring what is actually happening in the world (but then I assume they get their information from articles like http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/755511/theresa-may-brexit-plan-speech-pound-recover-bounce-back-eu woo, look at the soaring pound: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1D oops: http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=1M)
people buying now, at a time of cheap credit, when they expect prices to rise later, who'd thunk?
personally, i think i'm likely to fix the current vehicle, and put the money i was going to blow on a new vehicle in to the mortgage and my pension.
[quote=Nipper99 ]And their willingness in general to plumb new depths of personal debt which will have to be paid back at some point.....excellent - borrow your way out of the pending ****storm.
It's all part of the Brexit masterplan though - as the pound weakens we'll just inflate away all that debt. I can't see any downsides to that.
Why is nobody held accountable?
They are held accountable, but the ones doing the holding to account are more interested in who was on Have I Got News For You and who wears a nice tie than in anything substantive.
who wears a nice tie
that rules jezza out then
that rules jezza out then
Err .. I think most STWers are bright enough to have got that, hurty
And their willingness in general to plumb new depths of personal debt which will have to be paid back at some point.....excellent - borrow your way out of the pending ****storm.
I wonder where they got the idea?
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I wonder where they got the idea?
big thing is to learn from mistakes unless you are trying to win the interwebz, how many points today?
Discouraging others from leaving is quite important for the economy of the EU
I would agree with that but it is still a delicate balance imo, anything overtly protectionist from the EU will also have a negative response from some members and rest of world. The EU message cannot be 'our way or crushed' just as it cannot be 'cherry pick the best bits of membership as you see fit'
The EU will need to look as if they have come out in a position of strength and UK will want to look like they have the same.
A big opportunity for the EU to show true leadership perhaps, 12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
@ Jambalaya, Japanese car makers have factories in the EU to avoid tariff.
In an if I were a European commissioner what would I do line of thinking:
- aim to put as bigger spanner in the works of the city as possible and aim to take a slice of the money to be made in commodity, currency and equity markets.
- aim to put an equally big spanner in the works on any industry base in the UK directly competing with an industry at home.
- demonstrate clearly to my population that my decision to remain in Europe was the right one.
- encourage my national champion industries to use the low pound to take over manufacturing capacity in the UK to guarantee a place in the market.
- levy customs taxes at a rate that made any attempt at fiscal and social dumping to raise productivity futile.
- take the opportunity to further regulate the financial industry to reduce tax fraud and evasion using off-shore products.
Quick google has EU at 743 Million and UK at 64 Million, UK on those numbers is 8.6% of the EU, given the turnout and result that makes it 3.2% who voted to leave
[quote=theocb ]12% of it's population have just asked to leave.
er, EU population is 743mn, so [s]8.6%[/s] 2.3% asked to leave
edit: beaten to it by mike, but I think my final figure is more accurate than his (I presume he was working on turnout and forgetting that not all of the UK population was eligible to vote - 2.3% is based on 17.4mn voting leave).
I must have mixed up eligible with population there aracer
Try googling again perhaps??
The 'UK' (please accept this) has voted to leave the EU. The EU are losing 12% of it's population (I didn't do any calculations, it's just a rough figure plucked from my tiny head.)
[quote=Edukator ]- levy customs taxes at a rate that made any attempt at fiscal and social dumping to raise productivity futile.
I'm not sure they can given the effective upper limit of WTO rates.
If Maybot cant get her own minsters to stop with silly name calling
😆
The maths is in my post. It's quite simple the UK only makes up 8.6% of EU population. If it was 100% leave it's still not possible to get 12%
(I didn't do any calculations, it's just a rough figure plucked from my tiny head.)
and overestimated 5x did you work on some vote leave stats too?
[quote=theocb ]The 'UK' (please accept this) has voted to leave the EU.
Only 27% of the UK population asked to leave. Even if all of the UK population is leaving (it isn't, I'm not the only one eligible for an EU passport after the UK leaves), suggesting that all of the UK population asked to leave is at best disingenuous.
Mike. The EU population is around 500million, I think you may be listing population of Europe???
The UK voted to leave which means 65million people are leaving the EU (from the EU point of view, it doesn't matter who voted for which side.)
At least we now know who painted the bus.
