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Agree with your thoughts on identity … but all the areas you mention have a strong sense of identity, I'd argue that is true as much for areas where the leave vote was high, is just that the remain voting areas marry their "modern" and "traditional" identities… they are happy and proud of how their indenties have morphed and feel they have an identity with a strong future.
Don’t disagree. I think that may be the only way identity survives.
Incidentally, driving from York to Glasgow on Saturday, it was noticeable that just about every bridge on the M74 had people on it flying Saltires and EU stars. Not huge numbers of people, but had a bit of an impact.
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Presumably that makes Merkel more inclined to show what a bad thing leaving the EU would be.
The FDP is likely to be a member of the ruling coalition and they have a Eurosceptic faction so not necessarily so.
Their fear of AfD will help them overcome that failing Mefty.
It is interesting to see Labour slowly sidling round to a pro-EU stance. It's clear as day that they will get there eventually, sort of amusing (but frustrating) to see how long it's taking them to do it though. As for the tories though, I really don't see a way forward for them. Shame.
For all Corbyn's distaste for the single market on anti-globalist 'bad for the workers' terms, I would have thought he would be able to balance that with the effects of long term economic stagnation on jobs and public services?
Does have the appearance of a supertanker turning around rather than a nimble and effective opposition. Was hoping that JC would be making more of the Tories' extremely vulnerable position by now.
On Marr his main objection was the constraints on nailing out fu@@ed industries.
But yes the tag line is Jobs First Brexshit
Another clear message!!!
Labour are split on this, but just not in such an unhinged manner as the Tories.
Listening to John McDonnel just now it appears that Jezza and his team still feel that membership of the single market would prevent them from nationalising everything due to EU state aid rules.
But the vast majority of his MP's are pro-EU. Not that that cuts much mustard with Jezza. However, it's being pointed out to him that this huge groundswell of support, all these Momentum members and people who've joined the Labour Party are massively Remain voters. Hence the gradual change in tone. Len and the union mob are all pro-EU too, as they know full well what the Tories are planning to do under cover of Brexit. Goodbye workers rights.
Its going to be interesting to see if this uneasy truce can hold this week. The leadership have done everything possible to keep it off the agenda
I think we can take it as read the Tories will go at each other like rats in a sack right from the off when it's their turn next week
Not a pretty sight for Europe
Could someone give me a point by point run down on the differences between AfD and Tory party policy.
Not a pretty sight for the UK.
Could someone give me a point by point run down on the differences between AfD and Tory party policy.
Not much. Haircuts?
Its a bit rich us moaning about the influence of the far right while we've been sending this **** and his mates to the EU Parliament for how many years as our elected representatives
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Labours constructive ambiguity on Brexit is a tightrope they are determined to walk.
Trouble is once in power they'd need a clear plan that keeps a lid on things, or they'd end up like the Tories.... still divided & making themselves look selfish & incompetent at home & abroad.
This weakness has left the Tories flapping in the wind over Brexit, but have now decided to do as Labour suggested and ask for a transition, they could have said that months ago but too constrained by their continued pedaling of the Vote Leave BS.
Is Jezza's "grand plan" to enable protectionism & subsidies for the industries & workers that make up the [s]loony left[/s] labour core voters, knowing full well the massive retaliation will hit those with loadsamaney and voters that would never touch labour?
Win-Win: the rich get poorer and the pro EU "baddies" get shown how awful the EU really is.
Christ, I hope it's more sophisticated than this. It [i]must [/i]be smarter than this?!
Labours constructive ambiguity on Brexit is a tightrope they are determined to walk.
Whatever happened to clear conviction politics!!!
Trouble is once in power they'd need a clear plan that keeps a lid on things,
Next 6 months ?? 😉
I reckon that despite the bluster about be a govt-in-waiting they are secretly hoping to stay out of power for a fair while yet 🙂
Their fear of AfD will help them overcome that failing Mefty
Not convinced, Rutte moved to a more hard line policy to combat Wilders, Fillon was the front runner in France until he was investigated, so who knows.
Macron is quoted as saying "I am dead" if Merkel goes into coalition with the FDP.
I reckon that despite the bluster about be a govt-in-waiting they are secretly hoping to stay out of power for a fair while yet
I reckon you're bang on there captain. Just sit back on your 'constructive ambiguity' line and watch the Tory party go into meltdown over Europe, as per usual. They can't help themselves. Boris and Hammond are already furiously briefing and plotting against each other a week in advance of the conference. There's going to be full scale civil war in the Tory party, which will lead us all god knows where? One things for sure. It'll be nowhere anyone sensible wants to go.
The labour party just needs to sit back and wait to see what emerges from the post-May ashes of Tory Party, and await the inevitable general election as Brexit implodes under the weight of its own bullshit
Problem is they then have to come up with a manifesto and policies that triangulate from some brexit bullshit to some way of delaying any exit. They probably won't be able to formally abandon brexit for a good while yet, but brexit delayed is brexit denied 🙂
"Transition" via some norway-style arrangement is still substantially worse than the status quo, with none of the putative advantages to placate the loonies. Plus, once you've gone there, it will be hard to revert to full membership.
Hopefully the AFD will take care of theselves the way UKIP did when they got what they wanted?
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In some ways this is as a success for ISIS, as well as a failing of Merkel, shes still the queen of Europe, just has more on her plate at home!
I reckon that despite the bluster about be a govt-in-waiting they are secretly hoping to stay out of power for a fair while yet
Yeah I'm also wondering if Tories are happy to hand it over for a term and let Lab carry the can on Brexit.
Notable headline pic - 2 activists at Momentum rally also have very prominent "Brexit is Bollocks" stickers.
Somehow that circle has to be squared, Lab must know a lot of their boost at the GE came from anti-Brexit youth.
Yeah I'm also wondering if Tories are happy to hand it over for a term and let Lab carry the can on Brexit.
No chance! They're obsessed. I'm sure May would bow out like a shot. Just look at her FFS. She's effectively being held hostage as penance for her election balls up.
But Boris cynically sees Brexit as his route to power, and for the likes of John Redwood, Rees Mogg and IDS Brexit is nothing short of a religion. They've lusted after this for decades. Theres no way they're giving up on it now. Whatever the cost to the country, or even their own party. They're like cult members! Evangelical nut-jobs gleefully ushering in 'The Rapture'
Labour's position is complicated by a number of factors, not the least of which is that a large number of Remain voters ignored the Lib Dems and backed Labour in June. There is a pro-EU majority amongst Labour voters, which is forcing Corbyn's hand.
Brexit is tearing the Conservatives apart. They're presiding over a hung parliament, with open in-fighting between cabinet members. If May steps down or is ousted, then there is a very real risk of another general election that will most likely result in another hung parliament with a very real possibility of a humiliating overture to the Lib Dems or the SNP (both very pro-EU). As a result, the Conservatives are trying to sidestep parliament. They have lost a lot of time since Article 50 was enacted in March and have achieved very little. It is evident that the full implications of Brexit have yet to sink in to the hard right. In five years time, the Conservatives will either be in the process of reinventing themselves in a Cameronesque exercise to detoxify their brand, with most of the current cabinet long gone, or they will be the rump party we saw between 1997-2005.
Labour is wise to let this play out and watch the Conservatives self destruct from afar. But if they themselves ignore the majority of their voters' desire to remain, the punishment at the polls will be brutal.
binners - MemberBut Boris cynically sees Brexit as his route to power, and for the likes of John Redwood, Rees Mogg and IDS Brexit is nothing short of a religion. They've lusted after this for decades. Theres no way they're giving up on it now. Whatever the cost to the country, or even their own party.
And of course, if brexit damages the economy that's an excuse to reduce worker rights and slash the welfare state, and then no doubt blame immigrants and scroungers, it's a win-win for a certain sort of ultra****. They thought the financial crisis was a once in a lifetime opportunity
[i]Ultra[/i] is a good word, descriptive but not derogatory. Like it.
[quote=PJM1974 ]Labour's position is complicated by a number of factors, not the least of which is that a large number of Remain voters ignored the Lib Dems and backed Labour in June. There is a pro-EU majority amongst Labour voters, which is forcing Corbyn's hand.
Despite certain sections of Labour voters being pro Brexit there always has been a pro-EU majority amongst Labour voters, it's not particularly due to defection from the Lib Dems (though clearly the Lib Dems didn't gain Labour remainers in the way they hoped they would). Amongst Labour MPs the pro-EU majority appears to be overwhelming - I don't think JC has any choice but to pursue a pro-EU line given that there is very little support from anywhere in the party for the line he'd presumably like to take.
If May steps down or is ousted, then there is a very real risk of another general election that will most likely result in another hung parliament
A lot of non-Tories seem to be hoping for another GE to follow from May being replaced, but I'm not sure that necessarily follows - 4 of the last 7 British PMs have first become PM following a leadership change within their own party (it's hardly something new like people seem to keep suggesting) and only TM saw fit to call a GE within the first year! Though if there was a GE now there's a good chance Labour would win a majority - at worst Labour would be forming a coalition (or a confidence and supply arrangement - I don't think the SNP are likely to go into coalition with anybody).
A lot of non-Tories seem to be hoping for another GE to follow from May being replaced, but I'm not sure that necessarily follows - 4 of the last 7 British PMs have first become PM following a leadership change within their own party (it's hardly something new like people seem to keep suggesting) and only TM saw fit to call a GE within the first year!
Problem is those ones had a majority. TM goes, DUP want to renegotiate then it's a GE. It's a lot more likely a scenario
Nope - still don't see how that follows. DUP won't necessarily feel the need to renegotiate, and if they do then that's what they'll do rather than backing a no-confidence motion. I can't see what's in it for them to bring down a government where they have some power and influence. Given the non attendance of Sinn Fein, the DUP simply have to abstain for the Tories to win a vote if they're all successfully whipped (as surely they would be for a confidence vote).
I don't think JC has any choice but to pursue a pro-EU line given that there is very little support from anywhere in the party for the line he'd presumably like to take.
I think that you're bang on there, aracer.
Problem is those ones had a majority. TM goes, DUP want to renegotiate then it's a GE. It's a lot more likely a scenario
The DUP deal isn't yet fully in the bag, as it will be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. If it fails, the government will face the prospect of having open debate in parliament about another GE.
I don't think JC has any choice but to pursue a pro-EU line given that there is very little support from anywhere in the party for the line he'd presumably like to take.
Caroline Flint
They can debate all they like - until such time as the DUP are prepared to vote with the other opposition parties on a no-confidence motion there won't be a GE.
Thanks for the PM, Jamba. I'll say whatever I've got say say here though.
[quote=mefty ]Caroline Flint
is very little of the PLP
And if the DUP ask for more? If they don't get something they want?
The are running on the line here and if a leader arrives that they don't like? Reckon Borris can lead them?
On the subject of Labour distancing themselves from the entire debacle and dissent in their ranks, did you all see this?
is very little of the PLP
Not alone, the point being she is a remainer, but represents a northern constituency that voted Brexit, plenty of those in the PLP.
Ah, sorry, missed the point (was a bit confused as I thought she was a remainer). Despite the the PLP appears to still be very much pro-EU.
Labour distancing themselves from the entire debacle
And from the youth vote that is their only hope of a return to power. Young people don't want a Labour party that wants out of Europe.
And from the youth vote that is their only hope of a return to power. Young people don't want a Labour party that wants out of Europe.
They're betting they'll still carry the youth vote as being the best alternative to the Tories.
Reality is, in most places, any vote other than the 2 big parties is "wasted". (Actually it's not, Brexit proves that because the UKIP votes still had an effect).
Reality is in most places any vote is wasted cos it's not got a cat in hell's chance of changing hands.
Wow, this has turned into a cosy little, left, echo chamber.
Anyhow, I've got to find a new job now.
I've been sacked by one Eastern european and replaced with another.
(note: I haven't named the exact country of their origin, that's not the point, although I expect 99% will miss that point}
The CEO and share holders will be pleased, another expensive resident labourer replaced with a lower skilled, cheaper, replacement.
Yay for Europe!
What line of work Solo, what happened?
(I'm not a lefty).
Why have you been sacked ?
I genuinely sympathise Solo, that is unfortunate.
that's not the point, although I expect 99% will miss that point
What is the point though? Aren't lower skilled workers generally cheaper regardless of where they're from?
Reality is in most places any vote is wasted cos it's not got a cat in hell's chance of changing hands.
Only 15% of seats haven't changed hands at least once in the last forty years.
Wow, this has turned into a cosy little, left, echo chamber.
"The Left" seem to want out of the EU in large numbers, and cite protecting people like you as one of the reasons Solo.
I think it's people who are both socially and economically liberal that most strongly defend FoM within the EEA, and there used to be more of them in the Conservative Party (right?) but then they got a grip on the Labour Party (left?) but don't have control of either now… are there more liberal (small "l")(in both senses) posters in this echo chamber, than in the country at large? Yup, it seems so.
Solo, genuine question , member of a union? (I am a lefty)
(note: I haven't named the exact country of their origin, that's not the point, although I expect 99% will miss that point}
the point, presumably, is you are not racist. not necessary, it's accepted as given of course.
mefty - MemberOnly 15% of seats haven't changed hands at least once in the last forty years.
Sure, but the average age is 40 so that means half of that time was before the average person could vote.
Also, probably a lot of these changes were through demographic and boundary changes such that they were not particularly marginal at the time of the vote.
But in any case, the chance of a single vote changing anything is minuscule, which is as it should be (given how many millions of voters there are). Whether that vote is made for the winning party (in any given constituency), the 2nd place party or 3rd or 4th doesn't matter.
Sure, but the average age is 40 so that means half of that time was before the average person could vote.
Which is relevant to the point, whilst people say there is no point voting, on the basis of the numbers of seats that change hands in one election is low, the "battlegorund" seats change quite a lot over time - so the immediate chances of you voting someone out are low, the long term prospects are pretty good.
If you move about a lot, then maybe.the long term prospects are pretty good.
Even if you move about enough to visit each constituency on polling day, there's still chuff all chance of making a difference 🙂
UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote share in the 2015 GE but only 1 seat (out of 650).
I don't blame their supporters for being angry!
(Cons got 3x as many votes and 330 times as many seats!)
Perhaps if UKIP had had a reasonable representation in Parliament and faced off against they could have been managed and kept in place. Instead of the creepy reverse takeover of the Tories that possibly gave them much more influence.
(Greens and to a degree the LDs very short changed too).
I’ll leave this here. It’s in the news today, but might be relevant to Brexit. People will interpret it differently but perhaps it applies to both sides.
-JFKThose who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable
UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote share in the 2015 GE but only 1 seat (out of 650).I don't blame their supporters for being angry!
Aren't UKIP supporters just in a constant state of incandescent rage about the perceived injustices of the world anyway?
maybe for once they had just cause. maybe if it had been dealt with we wouldn't be in this mess now.
Cougar - Moderator
On the subject of Labour distancing themselves from the entire debacle and dissent in their ranks, did you all see this?
That's my MP, Alison McGovern.
I really rate her, seems a very principled and honest person.
Aren't UKIP supporters just in a constant state of incandescent rage about the perceived injustices of the world anyway?
Indeed, with their idea of injustice being different nationalities being treated the same.
Solo: that was a bit of hit and run. I suspect the cosy lefties in the echo chamber are more concerned for the welfare of people in your situation, than the tories ever will be. But it's hard to be sure if you just vanish into thin air..
"the left" have a number of reasons for wanting out - all fringe elements. There are the ardent outies liky Hoey - deluded like all outies and really in the wrong party. There are those afraid on their xenophobic constituents / want to respect the will of the electorate like Flint and there is the hard left idea that the EU will be a brake on their socialist plans. the vast majority of labour mps are remainers keeping their heads down
Next Solo is going to tell us that an eastern european family got a council house before him . ......
But it's hard to be sure if you just vanish into thin air..
He's in Germany looking for a job.
There was a documentary about that. Jimmy Nail was in it.
Mark Wallace is going to be a popular columnist in the ipaper
That’s certainly proved to be the case in the aftermath of the EU referendum. For a vocal minority of Remain supporters, who got their way on this and other issues for many years, the reality of defeat has proved simply impossible to accept. Rather than adapt to the result, or scrutinise their errors, they’ve jetted off into a twilight zone of EU-themed fancy dress, conspiracy theories, and increasingly unpleasant dismissal of Leave voters as ignorant racists who could help everyone out by simply dying off.
Read more at: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/remainers-cant-cope-losers-eurosceptics-cant-get-used-fact-won/
Yeah the 2nd half of it I 100% agreed with !
It’s hard to be a winner The Cabinet indulges in bouts of in-fighting about how to go about Brexit, which spills out into the street from time to time, as with Boris Johnson’s recent essay. UKIP has collapsed, with Farage attaching himself to the Trump train while the B-team fights over the corpse of his People’s Army. Out in the country, some Leave voters fear that Theresa May’s Florence speech foreshadows a betrayal of the 17.4 million who voted to take back control
Had lunch with a load of students today, a lot of them (the vocal ones at least) felt robbed by Brexit I think they fall into that conservativehome writers ^^^ description posted by mefty, it's a generation the Tories just don't seem to 'get'
As Kimberd points out above, these young people are the new power base. Lots did not vote in the referendum but voted in the GE, they are the ones that will win the next election for momentum/Jeremy - they don't have a clue about Tony Ben or Tony Blair for that matter
Do they know who Fatcha was?
Ok so not the three Ms yet but at least May is meeting Tusk today. Let's hope some sense will prevail and proper negotiations begin.
THM - optimism over experience?
Mefty - you need to read and reflect on the piece you posted. It’s difficult to campaign against something you don’t accept happened. Actually I’d suggest that acceptance is a prerequisite for organising and campaigning against something. I quite like the piece - it made me laugh - but it’s essentially froth. Unfortunately it is typical of so much of the coverage and too much of the rest of the coverage is venom.
UKIP got nearly 13% of the vote share in the 2015 GE but only 1 seat (out of 650).
I don't blame their supporters for being angry!
Welcome to the world of the liberal or green.
teamhurtmore - Member
Do they know who Fatcha was?
Probably only from that meme of her in the EU jumper!
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They are undergrads that couldn't have voted in ref but could've in GE, also these were qmul students from east London which has intake from all the diverse backgrounds of the area, rather than the stereotypical home counties gap year types
you need to read and reflect on the piece you posted
Perhaps you should read my post, before commenting on someone's need for reflection.
You can see the generational gap in here very easily, wait for a house price thread or one about tuition fee's. I'm not sure most people over 40 owning a home can comprehend what being young now means, you have to look beyond the smart phones and livin for today, the jump to where you are now is so big it's hardly worth considering. Take away the chances and opportunities and you have bigger problems, a recession will condemn and other generation to the scrap heap.
Yeah the house price thing is a much bigger issue for the good than being in or out of Europe tbf.
The thing is Brexit is all the govs bothered about & focusing on for the next decade?
mefty - Member
you need to read and reflect on the piece you posted
Perhaps you should read my post, before commenting on someone's need for reflection.
I did. I felt... underwhelmed
I also read your link. Frothy and derivative, amusing but ultimately not exactly high quality incisive journalism. Can’t imagine anyone getting worked up either way about it really.
I have seasoned colleagues who yet to see a rate rise in their professional lives 😯
Makes me feel v old!!
Yep, I work with people who seem to think interest rates have always been bugger all!..they're going to get a shock when they start creeping up, I've just locked myself into a fairly cheap 5 year fixed term due to the financial uncertainties over Brexit...lots of my colleagues are on tracker deals/variable rates and to add to the uncertainty most are on interest only mortgages...with cars and other things bought when taking out the mortgage...its easy to blame politicians and bankers for financial ills but individuals are being reckless with debt and it's on them that they don't follow the news and make themselves a little more secure.
With regard to buying a house, when I lived in the South East renting was more expensive than a mortgage, what first time buyers struggled with was getting a deposit together...it can be done, it's not easy and it does require sacrifices in other parts of your life...i got a deposit together by moving into a house share/room rental as opposed to renting a whole flat/house and worked all the overtime I could get, 18 months later I had the deposit I needed....i pretty much gave up on going out with friends and put myself forward to work bank holidays, Christmas, New Year etc...it was crap but I got a house at the end of it.
I'm happy to sympathise with people struggling to get on the property ladder if they're doing all they can...seemingly though at my work the 'kids' moaning about house prices all drive nice cars, have the latest iPhone, go on holiday each year etc...cut back on that and there's your deposit...owning property isn't a right it's a choice/privilege that you have to work for.
I also struggle to sympathise when people won't consider moving away from the South East when their job is transferable to a part of the country where house prices are more sensible...again there seems to be an attitude of entitlement with regards living in an expensive area!...we wanted privacy and some land, we weren't going to get it in the South East on an NHS salary, I could've spent the rest of my days moaning about how unfair things are but instead I looked around the country, saw the kind of house I wanted in our budget and moved 200 miles away to get it...it can be a pain not being close to family and visiting friends now entails a weekend stopover but it's worth it and we've made new friends where we are now.
If you're earning an average UK salary (25k?) and trying to buy in London then forget it, that's life...look to move jobs first and then relocate somewhere cheaper and buy there instead...or accept that you'll be renting in London forever...yes my parents generation had it easier with regard property prices but things change and you adapt to the economy/situation you're in.
A lot of millennials seem to want to look for blame everywhere while waiting for someone else to remedy the situation for them...Barry Sheene famously said: "don't wait for your ship to come in, swim out and bloody get it"... there seems to be a lack of that attitude at the moment.
With regard to buying a house, when I lived in the South East renting was more expensive than a mortgage, what first time buyers struggled with was getting a deposit together...it can be done, it's not easy and it does require sacrifices in other parts of your life...i got a deposit together by moving into a house share/room rental as opposed to renting a whole flat/house and worked all the overtime I could get, 18 months later I had the deposit I needed....i pretty much gave up on going out with friends and put myself forward to work bank holidays, Christmas, New Year etc...it was crap but I got a house at the end of it.
And still house prices are increasing beyond earnings so it just got harder. Given some house prices even a 10% deposit is 15-20k and many people earn not much more than 20k it's sounding like living cheap for 18 months might not be representative now.
These people leaving Uni are also there owing 15-20k of just fee debts.
If you're earning an average UK salary (25k?) and trying to buy in London then forget it, that's life...look to move jobs first and then relocate somewhere cheaper and buy there instead.
People go where the jobs are mostly.
A lot of millennials seem to want to look for blame everywhere while waiting for someone else to remedy the situation for them...Barry Sheene famously said: "don't wait for your ship to come in, swim out and bloody get it"... there seems to be a lack of that attitude at the moment.
Plenty of people doing that and there will be a point where saying that will get you lamped in a couple of years. When people are working hard, seeing their money disappear as fuel, food and housing goes up faster than any pay rises (cuts) they get.
When people have watched a whole generation boast about how much their house has made, the cheap credit that got them there and the growing economy seeing all that taken away is a shock but it doesn't mean they are not working hard.
Also remember part of this cost increase is due to the turmoil Brexit has caused.
If you don't think people have a reason to be angry then watch out.
18 months later I had the deposit I needed
Just out of interest, what proportion of your take-home were you actually saving and what were you paying in rent? It's been tough for a while but it's getting much tougher!