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I am convinced we will get more & more ag and fisheries regulation post Brexit. Being a progressive type I am not too worried about that (I may well have been involved in agri-environmental policy research in a former life). However, many old-school farmers certainly voted out purely because they "were sick to death of all the regulations coming out of the EU".
I thought it was cheaper NZ lamb and US beef the farmers had to watch out for - when we do those great international trade deals that is.
Farmers don't tend to be the sharpest tool in the box. That's why they are farmers.
There won't be a quota. British fishermen didn't vote out to end up with more quotas! They want to be able to catch whatever they want, sod the consequences.
The likelihood is they will be catching whatever they want in a reduced area. That will probably lead to more stringent quotas.
I am not even going to rise...
Being honest my opinion and shared by some i know, who work in farm supply chain, a lot of farmers will go bust. To survive farmers will have to be bigger and more industrial.
Dont expect badgers or deer or anything that might possibly carry disease, any legislation that might stop or get in the way of farmers will be for the bonfire.
I was under the impression that fishing quotas were to protect fish stocks anyway, so even with no quotas they'd be nowt left to catch after a few years, at least not enough to crew up and pay for fishing vessels?
I would not worry , with £350m a week spare to spend , the farmers Land Rover will be gold plated, and so will the fishermen boats .
Bloody hell, DD looks awful on BBC2 now. Was he fighting Haye at the weekend
Welsh good luck with the lambing. If you can spare the time another thread would be cool. Thanks for comments always appreciate to hear first hand. Congrats on the wedding
In other news this made me laugh, EU negotiator tries desperately to dodge the press (Sky News)
http://news.sky.com/video/eu-brexit-negotiator-struggles-to-escape-sky-news-man-10795884
All these idiots on BBC2 now are totally delusional. Boris, IDS, Gove, et all telling us it's all going to be just brilliant!
We're being held hostage by a bunch of right wing fundamentalist nut jobs who appear to be completely detatched from any kind of reality.
That was truly terrifying! God only knows where these morons are taking us!
There were folk from all sides binners, be fair, but yes, nearly all awful
Crap program but hey ho it was LK at the helm so never going to be heavyweight analysis
That was truly terrifying! God only knows where these morons are taking us!
Remember if you have the money change always offers a way to make more money.
Have they worked out leaving makes no difference yet?
At least not to fishing.
Jamba, remember who sat on the fisheries on behalf of the UK. Who is it who gave quotas to dutch boats etc. hint nothing to do with europe.
The UK government has shafted the fishermen and found it easier to blame others.
Am hoping that the comments by guy verhofstadt become reality as i would like to keep my freedom of movement, even if i have to pay for it for myself and my family
+1 it's great that he understands there is a huge number of us who think that the EU is basically a good thing which has been overwhelmingly a positive influence for the UK over the past 40 years.
+1 it's great that he understands there is a huge number of us who think that the EU is basically a good thing which has been overwhelmingly a positive influence for the UK over the past 40 years.
Great way of asset stripping the UK though, let the best move without issue, set up new lives elsewhere and let the UK drift into irrelevance.
The best have always been able to move fairly freely, I don't see it really making much difference but it's a nice statement of intent.
Great way of asset stripping the UK though, let the best move without issue, set up new lives elsewhere and let the UK drift into irrelevance.
No, we would plug the gaps through immigration. Oh wait!
That it pisses off farage and the rest of the swivel-eyed loons is just the icing on the cake 😆
The best have always been able to move fairly freely
The very highest earners maybe, but not people like me. I could easily get an overseas job now, in the EU, but it's next to impossible outside the EU. I'd have to be in the lucky situation of being required by my own company overseas.
The best have always been able to move fairly freely, I don't see it really making much difference but it's a nice statement of intent.
The richest have always been able to move, difference is freedom of movement means you don't need the cash to pay for visas etc. If your good you can get a job anywhere relatively easily.
Should also mention, if your trying to attract a company to your shores being able to move some of the staff easily always helps.
I guess I'm in a particularly strong position through being a scientist, it was always just a question of getting the job, with the visa (if outside EU) being an afterthought.
The biggest barrier to me getting a job in say France or Germany is not the paperwork needed to work there (I know it's currently none - that may change), but my poor language skills.
The biggest barrier to me getting a job in say France or Germany is not the paperwork needed to work there (I know it's currently none - that may change), but my poor language skills
Of course, but you can change that. But there are also companies that require English speakers.
But the point is that it's not JUST paperwork to fill in. We for example can't simply apply for jobs in the US. You need a green card or a visa, and they are only given out in specific circumstances. It just not an option for the majority. It's similar by the way for non-EU foreigners wishing to come here.
[i]But the point is that it's not JUST paperwork to fill in. We for example can't simply apply for jobs in the US. You need a green card or a visa, and they are only given out in specific circumstances. It just not an option for the majority. It's similar by the way for non-EU foreigners wishing to come here. [/I]
Yep. Just been called about a contract in Luxembourg, won't be getting those calls for long... And neither will the UK agencies get the roles either I reckon.
So how much is your average Brexiter willing to stump up for their chocolate fix?
[url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39228249 ]Chocolate price hike if Brexit deal fails, warns Mars[/url]
Never got Mars Bars,I'll take a Snickers anyday.
Wait a minute are the Brexies gonna make us start calling them Marathons again?
So how much is your average Brexiter willing to stump up for their chocolate fix?
Read the comments underneath....
Or maybe don't read the comments!
Guy V is a consomethinge politician, his agenda will be to ensure jurisdiction of ECJ in the UK / permanent right of residence and equal access to benefits / welfare for EU citizens coming to the UK post Brexit. I wouldn't hold your breath Graham IMO he is not to be trusted further than I could throw him.
@b r I'll wager you the calls for Lux will keep coming. I'd say Lux is working overtime to poach business from London/UK so they'll ensure they get the skills. Remember Lux has shafted the rest of the EU with its very cosy and secret tax deals to get Amazon/Starbucks etc to base themselves there.
Guy V is a consomethinge politician, his agenda will be to ensure jurisdiction of ECJ in the UK / permanent right of residence and equal access to benefits / welfare for EU citizens coming to the UK post Brexit. I wouldn't hold your breath Graham IMO he is not to be trusted further than I could throw him.
And he is doing a dam sight more for 48% of the UK population than the UK government and official opposition.
I am expecting some form of financial cost to keeping the access. But as far as i am concerned that's fine.
It's in their interests as someone else said they then have the easy option of making it easy to get skilled people over there.
Not holding my breath but if i get an option to be able to maintain free access for myself and my family i am doing it. And as selfish as this sounds bollocks to those who can't afford it as in general they voted to exit us in the first place, you voted out you lose the benefits, if we who wanted to stay have an option then i suspect a lot will take it.
Final compromise will probably be close to where we are now just a bit worse
Bound to be worse, no way could it be anywhere as good since we currently have the best of all worlds.
In simple numbers what's your guesstimate, 5% worse, or a smaller/bigger number?
I realise you'll say it's not that easy but it'd be good to see a predicted impact. And how long as even Jamba reckons 10 years of impact before we start to improve and move back towards where we should've been.
Private Eye's, Teresa'a School column is worth a read this week
Final compromise will probably be close to where we are now just a bit worse
and probably take 10 years to get back to the point we are now. Well worth it.
Be interesting to get the leavers view of whether it was worth it, what they feel has changed etc,.
teamhurtmore - Member
Final compromise will probably be close to where we are now just a bit worse
rather optimistic imho, Im not sure I trust our MPs to handle the complexity of it all, I also know that the science community feels that they are being ignored, it may well take 10 years to get back to where we are today, but thats 10 wasted years
teamhurtmore - Member
Final compromise will probably be close to where we are now just a bit worse
rather optimistic imho, Im not sure I trust our MPs to handle the complexity of it all, I also know that the science community feels that they are being ignored, it may well take 10 years to get back to where we are today, but thats 10 wasted years
Still too optimistic in my opinion. We are only 9 months after the vote and already UK science has taken some hard knocks in terms of recruitment, loss of funding streams, squeezing out from international consortia due to uncertainty and an inability to be able to do any long term planning.
It will probably take 10 years for the major observable effects of the post-brexit economic impacts to show in scientific research and training (unless steps are taken immediately to shore things up). Without major upfront investment (particularly in constraint-free fundamental science where the real step changes in understanding and knowledge are made) and major concessions to enable fast recruitment and funding of overseas students/workers at PhD and PDRA levels I doubt British science will be back to pre-2016 world leading levels of excellence in my career (I'm 36.....).
Of course in 10 years time we will have no idea how things would have panned out had the opposite path taken, so will have no grounds for comparison.
We could compare ourselves to the EU countries, give us a reasonable idea.
We could compare ourselves to the EU countries, give us a reasonable idea.
Obviously they're going to suffer with the mighty UK not holding them up.
b r until we know the nature of our future access to the single market I thing guesstimates are likely to be little overall value outside understanding the sensitivities involved. But yes, the result will be a GDP loss of high single digit/low doubly digit over a decade versus the status quo. But then we have the further complication is wha will the EZ look like - not the current structure clearly, but what and how long will it take to see sense? Who knows?
Thats a scenario TMH just as is mine which is that we benefit from a focus on high growth Asian economies and the US whilst the EU continues it's downwards spiral.
I see Holland banned the Turkish Foreign ministers plane from landing and this following a similar spat with Germany. There goes the migrant deal agreed with the EU, just as the weather is improving and the sea crossings pick up again.
I thought Junker's analogy of the UK getting back on the boat was pretty poorly chosen given the levels of migrant drownings
We already trade with the other nations.
The only difference now is the we have made trade with our biggest partners more expensive and more difficult and we have reduced the attractiveness of the UK as an investment decision. None of this makes things better. All very stupid really,
Stil we will survive.
the EU continues it's downwards spiral
What downward spiral?
we benefit
Is that the royal we again Jambalaya.
And I understood the EU's GDP growth rate is on an upward trend.
[I]b r until we know the nature of our future access to the single market I thing guesstimates are likely to be little overall value outside understanding the sensitivities involved.[/I]
Ok, so worse-case is WTO (assuming we'll be able to take advantage of THEIR allowances...) at double digit and best-case is something south of what we have now at high single digit. That'll make the self-employed NI fiasco about the equivalent of only one midge when out in the Highlands compared to the hurt the UK's going to go though.
THM once the deal is done I'll be expecting you to predict the impact 🙂
Even the Daily Trash is getting nervous now.
[img][url= https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3872/32542612554_bbfb3020f0_c.jp g" target="_blank">https://c1.staticflickr.com/4/3872/32542612554_bbfb3020f0_c.jp g"/> [/img][/url][url= https://flic.kr/p/RzFoWN ]_95117940_mail_front[/url] by [url= https://www.flickr.com/photos/82598458@N05/ ]jamesanderson2010[/url], on Flickr[/img]
well it is the Mail so im sure its all bullshit
but yeah like I said, I have no faith in the MPs being able to handle the insanely complicated task
Id initially heard good things about Jo Johnson as science minister and Brexit , But a talk from lawyer who'd been heavily involved in medical and scientific legislation in the EU, something that Britain is by far the dominant partner in , was very frustrated and concerned at his failure to grasp the issues at hand. - I strongly suspect that its reflected in every sector.
Davies as a classic failed minister but spiffing keen Brexiter (so worthy of the job) was always going to be a serious worry for such a important job.
Davies is no idiot, and has some level of principle. He's wrong about Europe and the EU but that doesn't directly make him a bad person.
I'm not saying he's stupid, just blinded by his own Brexit dogma to the complexities and cost of leaving.
DD on Marr along with Becky L-B talking labour economics - which will be worse?!?
DD looks so rough these days
Is it not the plain sailing he envisaged?
Oh dear poor Becky is so lightweight
Seems Fox is now also getting cold feet:
http://news.sky.com/story/liam-fox-says-10799493
[I]Liam Fox has told Sky News it would be bad for the UK if the country failed to secure a Brexit deal with the European Union.[/I]
But, surely he'd been told otherwise by his boss...
[I]The Prime Minister has repeatedly said she would rather walk away without a settlement than agree to a "bad deal".[/I]
The Prime Minister has repeatedly said she would rather walk away without a settlement than agree to a "bad deal".
That's the really absurd thing about her thinking..
Walking away with no deal is the worst case WTO scenario, so whatever deal we can get from the EU will be worse than what we have now but better than walking away.
So what does she consider a bad deal looks like considering the worst outcome is no deal lol?!
Unless she's expecting the EU to offer a worse deal than walking away, in which case we walk away?
Either I'm missing something or she's in cloud cookoo land.
It's utterly bonkers. She's trying to play a game of chicken aka mutually assured destruction, but she's only armed with a pop-gun and everyone knows it. The EU existed just fine before the UK joined and it will survive just fine without us. Given the UK's dickish behaviour over many years I'm sure there are many of them who are sick of the sight of us and champing at the bit to get it over with.
I think only one thing has been proved by brexshit, de Gaulle was right when he refused entry to the U.K.
Having watched Sophy Ridge and Marr today the slant I read above I don't recognise, deliberate misquoting of Fox. As the Leave campaign said and Fox repeated a tariff free trade deal is good for both sides and if there isn't one its worse for the EU than us. Thats been twisted into the "quote" above.
The Ridge show had a peice on Leicester a city with a big immigrant population. Not surprsingly the balck and ethnic groups where anti Freedom of Movement, as noted many times they are the ones who suffer from erosion of wages and working conditions. The "too many" quote made an appearence too as well as the fact that its just far too easy for people to come here.
In other news its been noted that we own 16% of the European Investment Bank, thats worth £8bn. We should get rid of that and if they want to move it and their ridiculous marble entrance from London then we should facilitate that. Employees all on cushy low tax deals too.
As I said on the Corbyn thread they have all moved to the back foot over the recent weeks even before article 50 gets kicked off. The grim reality has set in..
if there isn't one its worse for the EU than us.
Is this because they need to be able to import from us without extra tariffs?
Just a thought then: if a French company is buying things from the UK, and there are tariffs placed on UK exports, surely the French company can simply buy stuff from Germany instead? This would actually be good for the EU economy for more than one reason. We on the other hand will face tariffs wherever we import from, whereas before we could import a wide range of goods tariff free.
So perhaps we aren't holding as many cards as you think we are. Assuming that most goods we sell are available elsewhere in the EU, they are under no pressure to give us tariff free access are they?
So TMH in fact no two-speed Europe as Poland blocked the comminque, not yet anyway.
Turkey situation hotting up with fiery words against the Dutch and Germans and riots in Holland after not only was the finance minister denied permission to land another politician who arrived by car was refused entry to her own consulate. What price another migrant crises in 2017 as the weather improves and Turkey backs out of its agreement with the EU ? Erdogan holds all the cards with a German election in the coming months and the Greeks happy to stoke tensions ahead of their July debt repayment.
@molgrips - it's their exports to the UK which are the issue. We are a wealthy country and a big buyer.
I wonder what proportion of say Germany's exports come here?
Britain is a nation of vodka drinkers who wear Nike, prefer to gamble at Ladbrokes and don’t realise Brexit will make life more expensive, according to a consumer survey by HSBC.
😆
[i]@molgrips - it's their exports to the UK which are the issue. We are a wealthy country and a big buyer. [/I]
Hmm, but that would mean the tarrifs WE add would be paid by UK businesses/citizens into the UK Exchequer. Yes that would mean that some other countries could be more competitive but still would impact us, as we're the ones paying the tarrif.
So replacement BMW would just cost me more, BMW aren't impacted.
As I have said many times before its supply/demand/desirability UK folks will pay 10% more for the status symbol of a BMW or siemans/bosch/smeg /merc/audi etc
We as a nation buy "bling" and definie our lives by this, this is a UK trait not a European one and that is the fundamental problem (jesus no one with taste buds drinks proseco) it's not down to numbers it's down to desire. I have worked with very rich French business people but they don't buy shite or expensive cars.
[I]this is a UK trait not a European one[/I]
Nope, the Germans are pretty keen on their bling too.
b r - Member
Nope, the Germans are pretty keen on their bling too
The Astra plant in Luton is saved ! 😉
Fewer BMW and Audi drivers? And those that are left subsidizing the NHS? Is this really a bad thing?
If tariffs are paid to the exchequer hen can they not just reduce taxes to end up at the same place. So we can continue to buy as much as before from the EU. However our own exports will be more expensive to the EU as they won't do this.
Would they drop taxes to account for tariffs? Well, consumer goods becoming much more expensive would make the electorate feel much worse off and make the government look bad, so it could be politically worthwhile..
Anything could happen really, we are completely in the dark.
@molgrips the future is uncertain, EU has tried a number of times to get us to charge full VAT on utility bills. If we want to see examples of what might happen we could just look at the rest of the world who are not in the EU. Germany is an export powerhouse at one stage even exporting more than China in value terms. Thays why they like (for them) an artificially depressed currency in the €. We are Germany's third largest car export market,
As @oldman said a while back in 10 years it will be hard to know how we have done out of the the EU vs in. The same is true these past 10 or 20 years.
A50 trigger this week
As @oldman said a while back in 10 years it will be hard to know how we have done out of the the EU vs in. The same is true these past 10 or 20 years.
there are stats to look at the benfits of EU collaboration in research
they indicate that brexit will be detrimental
https://www.digital-science.com/blog/news/benefits-implications-eu-global-collaboration-uk-universities/
tally ho! its back to the 50s for us!
As @oldman said a while back in 10 years it will be hard to know how we have done out of the the EU vs in. The same is true these past 10 or 20 years.
Fair point.
If we want to see examples of what might happen we could just look at the rest of the world who are not in the EU
Surely for that to make sense we'd have to look at a country with the same economic profile and who's just about to leave a major trading bloc?
In other words, we can't draw any conclusions form looking at other countries. Any country that's like us is already in the EU.
Would they drop taxes to account for tariffs? Well, consumer goods becoming much more expensive would make the electorate feel much worse off and make the government look bad, so it could be politically worthwhile..
You forget that external EU tariffs are often high to protect EU producers, we could easily end up with imports from others sources which are cheaper. Many Africa countries argue that one of the biggest factors holding back their development is the protection tariffs trading blocks like the EU put in place.
A50 trigger this week
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