[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

finally a debate breaks out.

How many countries met the Maastricht criteria on entry?

Yes, their structural problems predates the €. The € simply made them worse.

The IMF did a very bad job, true. They are backtracking now hence the current stand off (you are following the Greek news now I assume)

Greek debt is unsustainable - I have stated this all along. It has to be restructured. The EZ merely kick this can, or what's left of it, down the road. making matters worse. Think about this Scotland!!

How did the Euro prevent it going tits up? That's very odd

Of course capital flight took place, why wouldnt it? Do you expect Greeks to have not learned from Argentina?? Why would a sane Greek person not transfer assets abroad?

Greek debt would have been sustainable with a lower interest rate at the start of the crisis. You'll find posts expressing my frustration at the German refusal to Eurobonds and the same interest rate for the whole Euro zone à la Fed on this forum since the hack. Banks have made a lot of money out of Greece paying 25% interest and yet they didn't have to take a risk as the IMF was there to finance the next round of debt. If Greece has the same interest rate as Germany (which hover around negative) any level of debt is sustainable.

The Euro is a hard currency so the Greeks have always had a currency to trade with, that has prevented Greece going tits up in the way Argentina did with money held in banks being lost and individuals and businesses going down with the banks.

Capital flight took place because people transferred assets legally (I agree, why wouldn't they), but illegally on a massive scale, with the help of the opacity provided by Switzerland. The Greek government couldn't track what was happening and enforce laws.

Britain would be in the same situation as Greece but for low interest rats which are justified by the strength of the pound. Greece has a strong currency but paradoxically pays high interest rates. Eurobonds are the answer.

Well why were rates not low? I have posted the basic Maths on debt sustainability many times. Greek debt is unsustainable - period.

Why do Eurobonds not exist? You are gettingn closer to why the € is/was flawed, keep going.

The euro created the conditions that led to the unsustainable position. If you don't trust me, read Varoufakis.

Free movement of capital - what does that mean?

No real questions there that aren't answered in my previous post.

I'm sure you know what free legal movement of capital is. Illegal movement of capital isn't free.

Ok, just dodge them

I do, true

No,,it's illegal

Your point?

THM - I make no comment on whether you are right or wrong on Scots independence.
I'm a Scots ex-pat in Yorkshire as many will know, and I oppose independence for all sorts of reasons, but I can see why it appeals to some.
What I would say is I think you're English (I may be wrong) and if I've got that right, then your opinion, right or wrong, will be as popular with the average Scots as a German explaining to an English audience why they should be ruled (in a devolved fashion of course) from Berlin.
Even if you are 100% right (especially this) then you are wrong.
But you know that I think.
For balance I think you're right in the Euro and Greek debt - much as I like the Euro as a concept it just doesn't work in reality.

Surely you are not suggesting that this is an anti-English thing?

IIRC when Canadians pour cold water on the hot iS lies, they were not that popular either!

(But the alleged debate is flawed. The UK is well designed and can and does work, The Euro zone is badly designed and can't and doesn't work. That aside.....)

Simple point is the scottish are not likely to to be won over by a ranting englishman telling them how nice the union is for them and to stop being so stupid. I understand why you sidestepped the blindingly obvious point with a feeble straw man

The reality is someone like you - right wing tory english is unlikely to help win a vote for remain in muh the same way a pre european german would not have helped remain.
TBH it would be so bad I would imagine the SNP would pay for you to do a tour

The UK is well designed and can and does work if you are english

The reality is this vote is an example of it not working for Scotland and always working for the english who do not get outvoted.

No THM - I'm suggesting that it can come across as "you guys need us grown ups to look after you" - a bit patronising.
Whether it's true or not and whether you intend it or not.

And yes much as I love the euro concept, the implementation is broken and I see no practicable way to fix it.

TBH it would be so bad I would imagine the SNP would pay for you to do a tour

😀 tru dat.

Truth is had to swallow some times IGM !

I love the concept of the single market but understand why the € is fundamentally flawed. Separate things. It can't work for very good reasons and on top of that the key elements are missing. The amusing thing for someone who gets accused of certain political biases, is how so-called lefties tolerate the appalling social and economic repercussions that stem from ignoring these basic facts. In contrast, I abhor them which is why I agree with a lot (not all) of what Varoufakis says. As he notes, there are some things that even economists can agree on.

But the ignorance that lies behind it is a the heart of your first point too. 😉

BTW, who is going to shut the window, you or me? Think it needs to be open a wee bit longer yet....quite strong today. Could be the prevailing wind.

The amusing thing for someone who gets accused of certain political biases

Bit delusional seeing as you then followed it up with a cheap dig at the lefties - funny how there are never any at the righties eh

I have no idea why you get so upset when folk point out you are a right winger. We all have biases on here no one is neutral so why sell the snake oil you just look like a right winger who struggles with the truth and that is not a character improvement

Are you still wanting to claim you are politically neutral

You can't be politically neutral - THM claims to be not party aligned, IIRC. There's a difference.

He's clearly somewhat to the right on the traditional spectrum.

well we only have one traditionally right of the spectrum party and he does - or at least has- claimed to be politically neutral.

He may actually be more impartial[ we mean centrist dont we] than most but that is not what he has claimed[ though he might now just to smite me]

I love the concept of the single market but understand why the € is fundamentally flawed.

Agreed. Doesn't stop me wishing the € wasn't fundamentally flawed though. Sadly I have to accept it is.

Shall we leave the window to see if young Nicola calls Indy 2 on the same day (not)mother Theresa calls A50 - make it easier to hear the commotion.

Different spectrum mol, different spectrum.

I am party agnostic, Issues interest me, parties much less so (except for amusement purposes of course, then they are brilliant and compelling in equal measure)

IGM, IIRC it's not her decision, but that apart.....

Scotsman (daily reading) has article on ground work being made with some choice comments underneath!!

If you like the idea of a single currency union - and there are reasons in the right context and the correct design - then by defintion you have to be in favour of the UK for the current member nations. It's a non-sequitur to argue otherwise.h

(I am keeping the window open for a while yet)

Scotsman - not the paper it was...

If you like the idea of a single currency union - and there are reasons in the right context and the correct design - then by defintion you have to be in favour of the UK for the current member nations.

I am - but I can understand why some aren't. And I agree that belief in currency union leads towards belief in political union fairly quickly.

Nah, its pro the Union!

Edit: so can I its a natural consequence of post truth politics. Indeed in its current form it was the birthplace. #SDBMB

I don't get the impression on reading the comments that many of the folk left, that they are either Scots or live in Scotland.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-condemns-pathetic-corbyn-over-brexit-1-4362437

this came up on my facebook feed 🙂

[img] ?oh=a5217b4e3af63bfe592ec9d9a2af5cc8&oe=594839E1[/img]

Switzerland isn't in the EU!

it not out of it either though is it

Yeah and when they had a rancid referendum with a stupid result, the politicians worked out how to deal with it in a sensible manner rather than going batshit crazy and driving the country off a cliff.

if anyone here is interested [url= http://bit.ly/2iI9xco ]more details[/url] I do like the

Office working language is English

and

We comply with all statutory requirements such as pension and accidental health cover.

may be useful if you were to take advantage of the hills in the background 😉

@Klunk Switzerland imo is a wonderful place to live. Be careful though of job offers which seem attractive until you see the cost of living there. For reference I have seen good graduate starting jobs at £100k equivalent

@ Edukator, the tax stat was for Greece ( from IMF report). The Germans quite rightly refused to take on responsibility for Greek debt without reforms. The Greeks should have accepted Germany's (tongue in cheek) offer of 500 tax inspectors. The "bailout" did not save the banks it saved the eurozone's very existence (for the time being), the IMF got involved as a failure of the euro was acknowledged to be bad for everyone globally (at that time). Blaming Swiss banks is daft, Greeks quite rightly wanted to get their money out, there is a long list of banks and countries they could perfectly legally transfer their money to. Greece has stemmed the capital outflows by capital controls one of who's side effects is to encourage cash transactions. Why put your money in a bank if it is trapped there and quite likely to be lost

As always IMO.

igm Scotland doesn't need anyone to look after, Scotland is very much part of our Democracy. Personally I think we'd be a lot better off if a certain Scot had not been in charge of the Economy from '97 and the entire country after Blair. However, I would not blame Scotland for him. Styrgeon and Salmond are a quite different story.

The whole Scotland voted Remain is a means to an end Independence wise. [b]SNP are well aware that the chances of Independence are zero once outside the EU and having to apply to rejoin.[/b]

Jambas, I fear that nos amis Edukator was getting a little confused earlier. Rather that looking at legal capital flight from bank accounts he should be looking at the correct data source for where the illegal stuff was happening - the Balance of Payments is the place to start.

On top of that more legal capital flight came to the UK than to Switzerland, but let's just put it down to a bad morning.

Jambas - be fair Gordi saved us from the Euro and single handedly rescued the world from the global financial crisis.

Actually only one of those claims is true, sorry.

THM - Got an interesting one to work out

If Tony Blair [b]hadn't[/b] agreed to a reduction in the UK rebate, then what would the UK net contribution be today?

Jamba - agreed. Brown was a little free and easy on banking regulation. But those were the times - I don't remember many asking for more regulation at the time.

No idea, you tell me.

Scotland doesn't need anyone to look after, Scotland is very much part of our Democracy

THM - to be honest, it seems to be remarkably complex to work out

far beyond me mate - might be a good one for your students 🙂

Might pass. ;-). More intrigued by the French default story

And the ridiculous juxtaposition of Tory MPs like Letwin "threatening" the HoL while Labour peers defend it - even Peter Hain last night. Amusingly awful!!

I'll be honest, I like one elected for x years house and one sit in perpetuity house. One body are very clearly beholden to their constituents and can be will be voted out if they act too far outside their interests, but the weakness is that they can be swayed too much by populism (that would never happen here of course). The other house can not be called to account by the electorate, but this frees them from the difficulties of making unpopular but correct decisions - they can follow their conscience.
The combination of the two is rather good, each making up for the other's failings.
How you choose the HoL is another question of course.

Rather like a bee * the HoL works well despite its obvious design faults

The quality of the debate and papers is often excellent

* appreciate there is some urban myth there about bees!

Vortexes around the wings as I recall.

I'll let you decide if that's bees or HoL

Actually I think your design flaws comment is interesting.
The US was designed - by constitution - and it was a good enough design that it has lasted pretty well.
Westminster was less design and more evolution. Evolution roots out flaws that are a real problem but leaves those that are, most of the time, merely interesting.

Carefully the thought police won't approve of flattery!

A lot of what the US do is a bad copy IMO - look at the inauguration versus a coronation.

Indeed.
And I prefer evolution too.

A Holyrood speech worth listening to 😉 Who is representing the 1m
Scots who voted to Leave the EU ? More people in the NE of Scotland voted to Leave the EU than voted for the SNP. The Indy White paper made it clear the UK may hold an in/out Referendum - with implication that voters should take that into account in their Yes/No choice

[I]Who's representing the 1m Scots who voted out?[/I]

WTF is representing the 16m Brits who voted in?

Well jamba, if you are going to be subdividing like that, my ward should be staying in the EU.

My house should certainly stay in. Hopefully the EU citizen/passport thing will go ahead anyway.

Someone should watch - BBC Two "After Brexit: The Battle for Europe" then smell the nice Italian coffee. The Italian debts are so very toxic ... 😆

So Italian debts being toxic is good chewkw? Fool.

igm - Member
So Italian debts being toxic is good chewkw? Fool.

Do you object to the Italian toxic debts as facts? 😆

Let me give you a suggestion by hammering the EU system until it breaks and in complete pieces then everyone can live happily ever after. 😛

yeah, great. Another major global financial crisis. That'll really make everyone's lives so much better.

Well we have hardly tackled de-leveraging yet, instead relying on stealing off savers to cover up the reality of the situation. Impotent monetary policy but at least we have a relatively loose fiscal policy in the UK. Good job they were only pretending about austerity.

Coming down from the QE high will be painful especially if inflation starts to accelerate. Hold on....

Coming down from the QE high will be painful especially if inflation starts to accelerate. Hold on...

Technical question for you... As QE is inflationary, will it have to come to a stop when inflation kicks in, to avoid hyper-inflation, even whilst keeping interest rates low to prevent a debt reckoning? ie: a period of inflation will force the BoE's hand into halting QE?

[quote=jambalaya ]A Holyrood speech worth listening to Who is representing the 1m
Scots who voted to Leave the EU ? More people in the NE of Scotland voted to Leave the EU than voted for the SNP.
Only one Scottish MP voted in favour of A50, against the wishes of the majority of his constituents. Do you want to take a guess at who it was?

Wow brooess, there is a lot there. Tbc in my comments I was thinking about the immediate impact of £ deval on inflation rather than stimulus provided by QE

In short (might come back on this tomorrow)

QE is an unorthodox and extreme type of policy. If the root problem goes away so does the need for QE

I don't think that there is danger of hyper inflation

Inflation is a double edged sword: it erodes the debt (good) but makes the cost of servicing debt higher (bad). Like most things it's a balance act.

I hope QE ends soon for the simple reason that it's the wrong solution to the wrong problem. A double negative.

Economic growth and inflation returning to target levels should bring and end to this stupidity. But there is a lot more behind this.

HTH

So THM - if the Tories start actively managing the economy with industrial policies, rather than letting the bankers fill their boots, will our economy grow more? It would perhaps end up better structured?

Very doubtful mol. Gov's have a very poor record in actively managing the economy. I would prefer them to keep out of the way as much as possible and let the rest of us get on with managing businesses/the economy.

Industrial policies in particular have a weak track record, but there is certainly scope for providing incentives to investment, training and possibly relocation. If they focused on helping to improve productivity they would get my vote!

At the moment, the one thing that the Tories are doing correctly goes against all the rhetoric and the perception of them. They are running one of the loosest fiscal policies in the developed world, hence my rejection of the idea of austerity. They continue to spend more than they earn at a rate that is greater than peer economies. At a time when households and corporates are deleveraging, THAT is the correct thing to do. They should stop this when, and only when, the private sector stops deleveraging. This is one reasons by the UK economy is performing relatively strongl, but goes against the common austerity narrative. Odd that!!

FWIW, and it's a technicality, QE does not involve "giving"money to the banks or letting them fill their boots.

Finally, the low tax Tories will ensure the HIGHEST tax burden on the UK economy since the mid 80s.That is another thing that needs to be addressed. Bloody Tories...... 😉

Who is representing the 1m
Scots who voted to Leave the EU ?

[i]Let me give you a suggestion by hammering the EU system until it breaks and in complete pieces then everyone can live happily ever after. [/I]

Which is the equivalent of living in a middle terrace and hoping that both you neighbours' houses get destroyed by a gas explosion...

[i]They are running one of the loosest fiscal policies in the developed world, hence my rejection of the idea of austerity.[/I]

+1 and have since the word 'austerity' came onto GO's lips.

Industrial policies in particular have a weak track record, but there is certainly scope for providing incentives to investment, training and possibly relocation.

Well that's more or less what I am talking about. There's talk of promoting certain industrial sectors, investing in busiesses and startups and so on. Either by giving money directly, paying for infrastructure or via legislation etc. Surely this is a sensible idea?

Industrial policies in particular have a weak track record, but there is certainly scope for providing incentives to investment, training and possibly relocation.

The debate is only about what the intervention should be unless we wish to return to serfdom/indentured labour/slavery as the market loves ever cheaper ways of reducing labour costs - everyone will interfere with the market EVERYONE - the only debate is to what extent from the light touch of THM to the stalinist fist of erm Stalin.

Not sure about giving money directly mol, and a national investment bank is off-agneda, but apart from that doing everything you can to facilitate business (legally and with respect to environment, workers righs etc)

Of course, coming back on topic, Brexshit does the opposite. Makes business more costly and more challenging. Only a fool would....

There's talk of promoting certain industrial sectors, investing in busiesses and startups and so on. Either by giving money directly, paying for infrastructure or via legislation etc. Surely this is a sensible idea?

If the government were to go the investment route the obvious is transport and communications, those things that form basic infrastructure. Problem is that the UK government flogged most of it off, and most to foreign companies. Obviously private companies will try and make as much money as they can, and seems to be the way demand assurances that any loses are covered by the government.

So rather than recycling the money it just gets off shored, and any risk is on the public sector rather than the private.

Throw into the mix WTO rules on subsidies and it gets very messy for many in the UK over the next few years. How much of the farming sector will be left in 10 years?

woah there! just roll back a minute Hoss!
WTO regulate subsidies!?
weren't we shrugging off the chains of the evil EU so we could do what we damn well please, subsidise who we want where we want!?

the good news just keeps coming. 😆

Pretty much the last person you need to be deciding what industry/business to invest in (ie subsidise) is a politician IMO, they've not a great track record on either straight business or subsidising stuff. Example:

August 2016
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36710104

Kieran Donnelly, the auditor general, said there was "no upper limit on the amount of energy that would be paid for".
"The more heat that is generated, the more is paid," he said.
In one example cited by the report, a business taking part in the same scheme in Great Britain could collect about £192,000 over 20 years by using a boiler all year round, but a Northern Ireland firm doing the same could earn £860,000.
Mr Donnelly said the scheme had "serious systematic failings from the start".

a national investment bank is off-agneda

Why so?

Pretty much the last person you need to be deciding what industry/business to invest in (ie subsidise) is a politician IMO, they've not a great track record on either straight business or subsidising stuff

Humans are fallible ....whatever sector they operate in

Its hardly news is it. Heck even trump declared bankruptcy a number of times ....

where as we all know no business ever makes an error, loses money or ever goes out of business due to poor decisions hence i was unable to cherry pick a link to substantiate this

But they lose their shareholders' money - not ours.

But they lose their shareholders' money - not ours.

They won't be though... Too many deals now come with no risk to the private sector. Guaranteed minimum payments for power, subsidies for transport etc.

blair's labour did master the art of privatising profits while publicising risk.

But they lose their shareholders' money - not ours.

Tell that to the bankers

Their shareholders don't need telling they have lost huge amounts.

Junky I know many bankers who have lost amounts in the tens of millions on shares in their employers. Just look at bank share prices since say 2006. A very large portion of Lehman Brothers employees held large numbers of shares for example. Didn't stop the bank blowing up. Also if you look at the share prices of those banks rescued shareholders lost a lot of money.

We have discussed banking before but if you let a bank fail the Govt is on the hook for customers deposts (up to a limit) and if a bank fails small, medium and indeed large business customers will find their overdraft facilities cancelled. It's not a simple decision.

@zokes yes indeed, in my view the eurozone crises is going to dwarf the credit crises of 2007-9 in terms of impact and severity.

I am surpirsed the Remainers here haven't commented on today's "EU exit bill". France and Germany wanted a bigger figure (€70bn I think) not surprising as they have elections in May and October and they are going to be on the hook for increased contributions to plug the hole we are leaving.

My gut feel is we well pay €10-15bn that being UK MEP's pensions (so paid out over decades) and Academic projects which the UK has already said it will match (so that's smoke and mirrors about whether it's paid to the EU first and then back to the UK or we just pay direct. Also again that's paid out over a number of years).

The big row is going to be whether the EU will discuss trade before we finalise this "exit bill", another reason why I say plan A is WTO tariffs with all amounts routed to NHS and let's just get on with focusing globally.

The point is that both business people and politicians fail and when business fail its not ALWAYS just shareholders who pay out- taxpayers are often left to pay the redundancy payments never mind what happened with bankers where, clearly, it cost the taxpayers a few pence.

Is it coincidence that Jamba is the first post on page 666...............? 😉

The big row is going to be whether the EU will discuss trade before we finalise this "exit bill", another reason why I say plan A is WTO tariffs with all amounts [s]routed to NHS and let's just get on with focusing globally[/s] used to pay people on the increasing dole queue or fund a cut in income tax for the top earners.

Is it coincidence that Jamba is the first post on page 666...............?

never mind what happened with bankers where, clearly, it cost the taxpayers a few pence.