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"Unpatriotic", "whingers", "whiners" and many more, outofbreath.
I haven't heard the first at all, and "whingers" & "whiners" has only occurred post result so can't have influenced the outcome. ....plus "whingers" & "whiners" is utterly benign compared with 'racist' which in our society is one of the worst things you can be accused of.
If racists feel that being called a racists is abusive, may I suggest that they stop being racists instead of crying?
Which just defines the problem with the strategy.
A racist doesn't GAF about being called racist so you don't win them over to remain by calling them racist. Meanwhile the 99.999pc of non-racists just feel alienated by the people calling them racist and become slightly more inclined to not vote or vote Brexit.
A 1pc swing would have won it for remain. Do you seriously think that being called racist didn't drive 1pc of undecided people away and therefore swing the whole vote?
So what were remain supposed to do then, THM? An attempt to be reasonable is constantly labeled "project fear" on this thread when in fact the reasons for remaining were: humanist, economic, in the interest of minorities and the vulnerable, practical, forward looking... .
The logic-based remain campaign didn't appeal to the lowest instincts of the population, the bile of the gutter press did. How should remain have fought in a dirty fight, dirty? So the campaign failed because remain didn't fight dirty and you expect me to accept the ref's verdict that despite the leave corner poking people's eyes out and kicking them in the nuts they won fair and square.
Leave campaign winning approach
1) lie about the NHS
2) stoke up fear about immigrants
3) suggest we'll be better off out economically
4) combine all of the above into one message that can be repeated and hits home
How was Remain supposed to honestly counteract this winning approach?
1) point out the lies (and face being accused of calling voters stupid)
2) point out the benefits of immigration and that we have controls (and face accusations of calling voters racist)
3) point out what we stand to lose economically (and be accused of Project Fear)
4) point out the message is disingenuous (and draw attention to the bullishit that then sticks harder)
[ edit : we already have plenty of links in this thread about Dominic Cummings' comments post referendum, but here's a short reminder for those who missed them http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/vote-leave-director-admits-won-lied-public/08/02/ ]
[ edit : for those that don't follow links, [b][i]"Would we have won without £350m/NHS? All our research and the close result strongly suggests No"[/i][/b]]
Or less than 20% of their lives.
...and you think that is unreasonable, the simple fact is the UK citizens who had a reasonable connection with the country and were registered in the recent past could vote, which is kind of the opposite of what you suggested.
humanist, economic, in the interest of minorities and the vulnerable, practical, forward looking... .
I will give you economic, that's it.
The problem with "project fear" was it was over the top and invited ridicule. Illustrated by the fact the soothsayer after soothsayer has had to eat humble pie, PWC being the latest yesterday.
So a British business man resident in France and doing business that is highly beneficial to Britain should have no vote in your view, Mefty.
But a senile pensioner can be picked up and driven to the polling station by a UKIP man who feeds them WWI propaganda and tells them to vote leave is OK by you.
In Scotland the Remain campaign was lacklustre and low key. Yet it was able to gather support from both nationalist and unionist and won by a wide margin.
The Leave campaign was widely unpopular even among Leave voters.
IMO Remain would have been better served with a more positive campaign. David Cameron should have learned from the Indy ref where the BetterTogether campaign self titled Project Fear managed to win but only by a much narrower margin than expected at the start of the campaign
Mefty has it right
The problem with "project fear" was it was over the top and invited ridicule
IMO another issue in the EU referendum is the role of the press and media.
It is a system - a perfectly reasonable one that gives the vast majority of UK expats the right to vote - arguing hypotheticals is pointless.
Interesting that one of the strongest correlations in the referendum was educational attainment, before I get set upon I am not advocating lack of higher education indicates any right to vote or have your say.
Another indicator was income, therefore it is reasonable to assume that the less educated and well off on the whole voted out. I am not sure this forum represents that group of people or how they feel - this part of our society is on its arse and the future is bleak (regardless of Brexit) for them as automation takes the last low level skills they have.
Brexit does nothing to address this issue, no government regardless of political position can fix this, the economy the working poor want back disappeared last century Mrs May can talk all she wants about being "inclusive" but she can not turn back time (neither can Trump).
If I look around my peer group I left school with the ones that did well 35 years down the line are the better educated ones.
We have a massive problem with this element in our society and they are ill informed, easily led and manipulated by *s like Farage Daily Mail Gove Davies etc.
History tells us the second a country has a big problem (war recession) it's the huddled masses that are sacrificed. I have said before these people have no political representation and under the current system (except for a referendum) they will not get it - in short they are *ed yet they think a flag waving xenophobia driven exit from the EU will save them.
Anyone got comments on this?
Nationalist grandstanding.
Nationalist grandstanding.
Just like Brexit.
Some pertinent observations, oldmanmtb.
We have a massive problem with this element in our society and they are ill informed, easily led and manipulated by ****s like Farage Daily Mail Gove Davies etc.
Education is the root of it all, as with so many other problems.
Have a few acquaintances who are currently struggling to understand why Diesal and Electricity are getting expensive (pub conversation) I pointed out the value of the pound and one of them said what the **** has that got to do with it....
I kid you not.
The question of wether or not Wales would receive extra funding from the UK govt in place of the EU was a key issue here, so it's rather important.
Just like Brexit.
Not really, Brexit achieved something, whether it will be good, bad or indifferent remains to be seen - I think probably the latter.
Have a few acquaintances who are currently struggling to understand why Diesal and Electricity are getting expensive
But you can't call voters stupid, remember. Their opinion on economics must be respected.
Nationalist grandstanding.
Not unless Labour and Libdems have had a sudden change of heart.
Seems perfectly fair to me plaid are pointing out another Brexit promise not delivered
Seems perfectly fair to me plaid are pointing out another Brexit promise not delivered
No promises can be delivered until we have agreed an exit deal with the EU. Hence it is premature and has only been put in to attract attention, ergo grandstanding.
I had one of them saying "my kids don't have the opportunity your kids have" - strange as all of us went to the same school (him me and our kids) this is the same bloke who told his kids University was a waste of time (both bright kids) now in there 20s one is a part time waitress and the other a builders labourer (no offence to either job role)- Edukator education is everything..
No promises can be delivered until we have agreed an exit deal with the EU
So you agree we coudn't have known what we were voting for after all?
Brexit does nothing to address this issue, no government regardless of political position can fix this, the economy the working poor want back disappeared last century Mrs May can talk all she wants about being "inclusive" but she can not turn back time (neither can Trump).
And the saddest part is that those people may actually be hit more than most post Brexit. And the populist campaigners getting them to vote leave were fully aware of that which to me puts them as the lowest kind of people.
Education is the root of it all, as with so many other problems.
It really isn't. Genetics are the root of it. I was genetically blessed with high intelligence while others at the same school receiving the same education I received were not.
That intelligence is what has helped me succeed, not the education or the exam results (which were average as I don't revise!)
Edukator education is everything..
Although Kerley's self-aggrandising is snooze-inducing he/she is right: The most valid point in that story is the attitude of the parents, not their education, or lack thereof.
So you agree we coudn't have known what we were voting for after all?
Of course not precisely, only a moron would expect that, as I said the referendum determined the direction of travel, government will plot the course.
Education is more than exams, I was thick as pig **** at school but after 9 years of day release from work got an Engineering Degree - slow learner me... actually it was city and guilds HNC HND Degree route.
It's also about taking on new challenges in work and a career/business environment
Genetics are the root of it. I was genetically blessed with high intelligence while others at the same school receiving the same education I received were not.
Whole-heartedly disagree.
That our education only serves well people with higher intelligence is a problem. Regardless of your IQ, you should be educated to think critically, have empathy, be able to spot bullshit, and be able to understand the very very basics of our world.
Of course parents should be doign this, but we know that not all do. Schools need to teach more than they do now in a way that can be used by more people.
That intelligence is what has helped me succeed, not the education
Exactly my point. The education is not good enough.
Although Kerley's self-aggrandising is snooze-inducing he/she is right:
gee, thanks
Education is more than exams
Damn right. What you learn as regards physics, or computer science, or whatever at university didn't in any way effect how people voted in the Referendum, in my opinion. Spending years studying, and living with, people from many different background, places, and countries, is a life changing experience, that greatly effects you. It is this effect that I think we see in play when comparing education levels with voting patterns. That and the promotion of critical thinking… rather than just soaking up other people's opinions.
Simplifying the education/voting patterns to one of intelligence/voting is very misguided.
It's not about intelligence, it is about experience, outlook, and approach to life.
All this willy waving about education and intelligence is completely pointless, as the work Philip Tetlock has done suggests even experts have only a slightly better than chance record for their predictions.
I remember reading a newspaper article and realising for the first time they were presenting the story in a way that fit their agenda. I was about 20 or so. This is the kind of thing we should be teaching in schools - how to manipulate facts to suit an agenda, and how to spot when it's being done.
All this willy waving about education and intelligence is completely pointless
No, it's very important - you are missing the point somewhat. It's not about making economic predictions - we obviously can't all be trained economists - it's about being a savvy media consumer, and not entertaining prejudice.
mefty, no-one is claiming the experts are good, just that they have better job prospects. But I hope you stick a pin in a medical dictionary rather than waste time going to a doctor when you are not feeling well 🙂
Education [s]is[/s] should be about more than exams
FTFY
What you learn as regards physics, or computer science, or whatever at university didn't in any way effect how people voted in the Referendum, in my opinion
well your opinion is ignorant and wrong, as educational attainment was the single most highly related variable to how people voted in the referendum. As was widely discussed in the press at the time (and again only just recently with a more detailed analysis).
Captain, did you only read my first sentence?
you are missing the point somewhat
No you haven't looked at the research, Tetlock's studies suggest expertise, information, lots of computer power etc etc are of very limited value in making good judgements. As a result all this snobbery about the uneducated making stupid decisions is not backed up by Tetlock's research.
well your opinion is ignorant and wrong, as educational attainment was the single most highly related variable to how people voted in the referendum. As was widely discussed in the press at the time (and again only just recently with a more detailed analysis).
As noted above though, what hasn't been properly studied is whether it is education [u]itself[/u] that was the determining factor, or the fact that 'being educated' means you are more likely to have experience the benefits of multiculturalism, worked with folks from other EU countries, and hence see those benefits more than others who haven't seen the benefits first hand and/or perceive they have been negatively influenced by eg: free movement of labour (taking our jobs, etc.)
I don't have numbers; don't know if anyone does, but what proportion of Doctors are filled by 'foreigners' and what proportion of (for sake of argument) fruit pickers? Because both are roles that cannot readily be filled from within - we don't have enough Doctors and we don't have enough people prepared to do fruit and veg picking. But people who use migrant labour as an example of taking jobs don't complain about migrants taking Doctor's jobs, mainly IMHO because they recognise they are jobs they couldn't do. They complain about fruit pickers in Lincolnshire towns because they are jobs they could do (but in some cases choose not to). Why do we not have the same concern by children of 'educated' families about Doctors coming over and taking jobs? Because as far as i can tell, it's a job lots of people don't want to do either.
No you haven't looked at the research
I'm not talking directly about the kind of thing that Tetlock is writing about. He's talking about making judgements and predictions on the data (or appears to be).
I'm talking about the secondary level - assessing the media and assessing the experts, rather than being one. So in other words, reading Tetlock, not being one of the people he's assessing.
Social determinism innit. And education the way to break it.
Mefty - on form today
Personal favourite?
No promises can be delivered until we have agreed an exit deal with the EU. Hence it is premature and has only been put in to attract attention, ergo grandstanding.
From the man who was telling us that the economic forecasts of what might happen on triggering A50 or leaving the EU have been proven wrong...
Love it.
panem et circenses.
Last thing you need is for the proles to ask questions, keep the debate to soundbites, keep the truth out of it, discredit the experts. Don't whatever you do train kids to think, teach them "facts" but they must never question why.
Keep them thinking tomorrow will be a better day, even if it means going to heaven, and don't forget the big stick to stop them questioning, ie hell.
Keep on churning out the same "facts" eventually they become the truth.
The points above regards those who voted are valid - theres a very strong argument whereby those who have already benefitted most from the status quo are likely to vote to retain it
Also worth considering that since the second biggest variable seems to have been age, theres a clear bias whereby young people are, as we know, far more likely to be degree educated than older cohorts.
so, it goes without saying that younger population will contain more graduates, and therefore impossible to tell whether the variable driving their opinion on EU membership is education or age.
The points above regards those who voted are valid - theres a very strong argument whereby those who have already benefitted most from the status quo are likely to vote to retain it
Which they didn't, ie the old voted out. The young who if you believe the arguments are priced out of housing etc voted to remain. Even though it is the young who should gain because there won't be competition for jobs, housing etc.
Or maybe the young who don't read newspapers such as the Mail are less affected by 40 years of anti EU stories??
From the man who was telling us that the economic forecasts of what might happen on triggering A50 or leaving the EU have been proven wrong..
You give me to much credit, I merely pointed out the soothsayers themselves have said they got it wrong and have revised their forecasts. Project Fear clearly over-egged it, they predicted WWIII if we left and only the poster on here, whose copy of Jane's Defence Review has stuck together pages, believes that.
Project Fear clearly over-egged it, they predicted WWIII if we left
No they didn't. One or two suggested stability might be at risk, which isn't the same thing at all. If you remember, there was no single remain message.
And as we have said over and over - it hasn't happened yet. There are plenty of worrying signs.
only the poster on here, whose copy of Jane's Defence Review has stuck together pages, believes that.
I think youll find that theres more than one of those types on here!
project Fear got the timing wrong thats all, well that and Osborne is a muppet
from a science perspective the drying up of research funding has been very real and they at least got the currency freefall right, infact I think they underestimated that bit
Mefty - you made me laugh, and I enjoy that.
Actually a few of the ridiculous comments, hypocritical comments and just plain daft comments from Brexies make me laugh - you're not alone.
And I appear to have benefited from Brexit on a personal basis (at least financially / career-wise, always thought I would though) and I'm still solidly against the stupidity.
And I appear to have benefited from Brexit on a personal basis (at least financially / career-wise, always thought I would though) and I'm still solidly against the stupidity.
Me too. I could benefit from all sorts of Conservative policies but I would never vote for them as a lot of people would lose out (the ones who can least afford too)
That's all wonderful chaps but diesal is 1.35 a litre in the local village and my mates still pissed off that a slow Brexit has caused the price rise...
I kid you not no.2
See. Brexies are for laughing at.
So the old girl gets it through without amendments and looks like she will hit her timetable. She seems to be getting the hang of this now.
Got to laugh at Corbyn:
We want to make amendments, but we'll still vote it through if you ignore them.
May: urrm okaay.
So the old girl gets it through without amendments and looks like she will hit her timetable. She seems to be getting the hang of this now.
I agree she has the hang of divide and rule politics. Shame she hasn't got the hang of making the uk a good place to be.
Amazing but not unsurprising level of spinelessness displayed by MPs
I was kind of hopeful that some amendments could be added on that might mitigate the divisions in the country, obviously I was wrong!
Indyref2 is on its way!
I agree she has the hang of divide and rule politics. Shame she hasn't got the hang of making the uk a good place to be.
I guess she has two years to come up with a plan that re-units, being as she is a tory, she won't give a ****. Not like she will have money issues when she leaves office. Memoirs, after dinner circuit, a few directorships, etc.
"Got to laugh at Corbyn:
We want to make amendments, but we'll still vote it through if you ignore them."
He's playing the Brexit thing perfectly, he and his buddies want out. He's helping to make it happen.
Helping a quick Brexit is the one thing that will make his embarrassing nightmare of a leadership worthwhile in his mind.
Amazing but not unsurprising level of spinelessness displayed by MPs
Even as a remainer I can see that they are in a sticky situation.
He's playing the Brexit thing perfectly, he and his buddies want out. He's helping to make it happen.
agreed, but, those who put him where he is, how are they viewing this? From what i have read, most wanted to Remain. Does make you wonder how long till the next leadership election?
And the one thing we need is an opposition. Checks and balances. two parties offering the same thing is a complete failure.
So everyone goes on about how it's terrible how guarantees haven't been made to EU nationals in the UK, but the amendment to do just that fails. As does the one about money for the NHS.
What a bunch of absolute spineless cowards those Leave politicians are.
So the majority in the house was enormous and in no way reflects the narrow Brexit win. This could (I hope will) completely change the UK's political landscape. Both Labour and Tories have alienated themselves from a significant chunk of the electorate.
Imagine if they had done the opposite and alienated an even greater number
Does anyone think any of the following will be abolished or changed post Brexit?
Mandatory commercial and domestic EPC's
Road tax based upon emissions
Costs of meeting energy efficiency targets
Costs of complying with recycling targets
VAT levels
Introduction of tourist taxes.
effectively it has been, have a look at the tax bands applicable from April.Road tax based upon emissions
As for the rest, if getting rid of red tape is the point, think of what red tape can be eliminated. H&S, employment, environmental, etc.
Well if the MPs had taken into account local voting rather than the party whip then I don't think there would have been much alienation either way but here we have people who have been betrayed by their MPs. I think they'll be very willing to look for alternatives to Labour and Tory.
In France we have Macron who is picking up voters from those disappointed with Hollande and Sarko/Fillon and looking for an alternative rather than swinging from one to the other.
As for the rest, if getting rid of red tape is the point, think of what red tape can be eliminated. H&S, employment, environmental, etc.
An old friend of mine voted leave because she thought it would lead to improved employment rights. She's an idiot.
I really hope they don't liberalise those three, all three will lead to worsening of living standards for all but the richest in the UK. Poisoned/polluted waterways, worse air, harder to have children (Theresa seems like she might go after maternal rights, which in the long term in incomprehensibly stupid and will lead to a worsening of the uk economy)...worse lots of things.
Sadly for France , I think Le Pen has a very good chance .
Good for Fallon & Co then Ed. They are very clear about ignoring the result. Let's see how it plays out for them
The provisional figure for the number of workers fatally injured in 2015/16 is 144, and corresponds to a
rate of fatal injury of 0.46 deaths per 100,000 workers.
https://www.osha.gov/oshstats/commonstats.html
4,836 workers were killed on the job in 2015 [ https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cfoi.nr0.htm ] (3.4 per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers) — on average, more than 93 a week or more than 13 deaths every day.
I don't know how comparable the numbers are, statistical methods, but makes you think.
"Costs of complying with recycling targets"
I think this would change post Brexit. The current rules incentivise Councils to increase Recycling rather than reduce landfill! Our Council is suffering because people have all but stopped reading Newspapers in Paper format which has vastly reduced the amount being recycled. The only way to increase the amount of rubbish to some how meet the target was to encourage people to bin garden waste instead of composting it in their garden!
So I'd hope that rule will change post Brexit to reduce waste rather than. significantly increase it.
cchris2lou - Member
Sadly for France , I think Le Pen has a very good chance .
hasnt [s]putin[/s] wikileaks said they will be turnng their attention to Macron & Fillon ?
Le Pen will make the second round, however all the polls give more than 50% to parties left of centre so if her adversary is Macron, Bayrou or Hamon she loses. The candidate she has the best chance of beating is Fillon according to polls.
The biggest thing in Le Pen's favour is the division of the centre/left among four candidates. Melonchon standing is the factor that gives Le Pen a chance, as he could take enough left wing votes to stop Hamon, Macron or Bayrou reaching the second round.
Fillon has already been screwed up .
He screwed up himself. I just asked Madame for a few words to describe Fillon: tricheur, menteur, sexiste, malhônette... . There's a copy of Le Canard on the sofa. 😉
Both Labour and Tories have alienated themselves from a significant chunk of the electorate.
I think they did that a long time ago, hence the fiddle that enables a majority government to result from 30odd percent of the votes.
@ mrmo - That's kind of my point. If it's going to be a bun fight, bonfire of rights and environmental tools for change, would be good to have a player/s on the field so to speak.
Pressure from all angles seems fair to me 😆
It's going to be like the 60s, flower power, acceptable racism, British jobs for British workers (except the ones we want other folks to do driving buses and sweeping up that sort of thing) Grammar schools, secondary Moderns, doffing your cap to the gaffer, not getting above your station - it's gonna be great... and we will have proper piss poor people. Tories will be going weak at the knees at the thought of it.
Maybe The Donald will nuke Parliament after the speakers rebuke.... after all Donald said on the tele today he was better than just about anybody when it comes to working things out.
We the unheard need a leader.. a person of integrity and common sense. Someone to take us back to the promised eu land. No need to part the waters we have a tunnel..
Any suggestions (asked Binners but he said he would only take a seat on the front bench as Secretary of Culture) come on Europatriates we need a leader..
I'm still hoping Theresa's deliberately turning this into the hardest of hard exits in the hope it meets so much resistance from the general public at large when we all start to realise how much we'll lose that she feels forced to call another referendum or a general election...
I'm increasingly concerned however that my hope is misplaced.
Although I did disappoint my Very Loyal Tory mother the other week when I told her that a combination of her party forcing me to leave London by making living there unaffordable and Brexit mean that they've lost my vote for a good length of time. Reading the FT comments I may not be the only ex-Tory voter around...