[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

Mrs B tells me estimated cost is €500bn

Your good lady reads the Republican figures, a bit like the £350 million on the side of the bus it's misleading and fails to take into account the allocations it will replace. 45bn euros is also quoted.

Add all the centre-left results in your opinion poll together and you have a bigger number than the right. France remains leftward leaning. The electoral system may however produce a right wing victory.

IGM. Neither funny nor desperate. Try accurate if inconvenient (for the new whiny narrative)

The cost is a rounding error. Hence the need for Brexshiteers to resort to diversionary stunts. We know that. Learn why liars resonate and succeed so that it won't happen again.

THM: On membership… we are all already clear that Norway isn't a member of the Single Market, even though it is in it. It was pointed out by many during the referendum that this is a far weaker position than we have as a full member, including by politicans from Norway, and both Leave and Remain campaigners. Members get to set the rules of the Single Market; if you are in it but not a member, you have to follow the rules but play no part in setting them.

I keep saying "Norway is in the Single Market" and you keep countering this by asking "is Norway a member of the Single Market". These are not the same things.

It is in the Single Market (for goods but not food) but it is not a member.

The rules include FoM, and an ECJ equivalent by the way. So back to those red lines of May's that rule this kind of compromise out....

They also include budget contributions, but she hasn't ruled that out yet…

That are not the same thing - you are staring to get it right. Success. I am glad that we ARE clear now

I have said all along that what we have now is far better than the alternatives that we will be discussing in the future. But my views are not shared by the majority. I lost. They won.

We will see who ia right at some point in the future.

P.S. you are also correct in where the current red lines leave us. I stated that many, many pages ago. According to the non-existent plan, our negotiating starting point is for a bespoke deal between FTA and the CU but currently biased towards the former

So is Norway in the Single Market THM?
Stop dancing on your head of a pin.

Given how small the actual amount is in real terms it's not that tough a choice really

I make it that EU will lose 0.05% of GDP in terms of budget contribution when we leave.

Of course, economically it'll be far more impacted than this… any focus on the contribution ignores this.

No, we have discussed this before and give you the appropriate homework.

Norway has access to the Single Market though as we know or should do. We will too albeit through a different arrangement.

Tip. Avoid pins. They hurt the feet. Dance on solid ground instead. Better and less painful

How about "Norway pays a substantial sum of money to be able to freely trade a limited selection of goods and services with the EU".

I am on the fence but, would like any pro brexit types to explain how brexit will benefit economically?

Don't hold your breath. The economic argument is clear, but it's not about that, as the Sccot Nats say, the economic cost is worth it if we can at least fake control in the end.

The economic case is that the UK will be much better off trading with India then the largest trading bloc in the world.

First Greek debt story in the mainstream media for a while. Eurozone finance ministers meet Feb 20, also notes vital role IMF plays

"Greece 3 weeks away from explosive debt problems"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/29/greece-three-weeks-away-explosive-debt-problems-imf-alexis-tsipras

Issue will be kicked into the long grass again given French and German elections but the problem is just intensifying

Great article in the Graun on American food; expect it on a shelf near you soon.

If this comes to pass then I'm heading for vegetarianism; American food is foul, their agri business calls the shots.....corn syrup in bread, FFS!

The sad thing was that the NFU, instead of making the distinction between our good, EU-controlled stuff, want to adopt the same practices.....race to the bottom.

This is the kind of thing that we'll miss- "red tape" eh?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/britain-us-trade-deal-gm-food-eu-rules?CMP=fb_gu

Democracy bypasses an ill-informed electorate.

We had a special thread on all the ridiculous Remain campaign predictions. Leavers saw straight through them all.

GM stuff is a red herring 😉 is all those steroids in the meat that aren't so good

We had a special thread on all the ridiculous Remain campaign predictions. Leavers saw straight through them all.

I think people aren't quite understanding what 'democracy' means. It's not a complete national constitution. It's simply a basic concept - we get to vote. It says nothing about how to actually run a country. That's the bit we have to create. There's no such thing as 'pure' or 100% democracy, where everyone votes on everything, as if that's something to aim for and everything else is a compromise.

So it would be equally democratic if we gave the referendum absoute power; or we didn't and passed the result to parliament. They are both democratic. Only difference is that one, in my opinion, is stupid democracy, and one is a bit more sensible given the circumstances.

We had a special thread on all the ridiculous Remain campaign predictions.

So my rights aren't being taken away after all? Was that just a ridiculous prediction? I hope so.

@mike I discussed the extra budget contributions a while ago. Estimates are Germany €4-5bn, France €2-3bn pa etc, this is to maintain the same EU budget spending. Remember Germany is already facing €20-40bn pa for the 1 million migrants they took in plus pressure from US for them to increase NATO spending by €30bn to meet the 2% (they are barely over 1%) plus then of course the almost limitless requirements of propping up the over borrowed Southern European states. Remember also the EU is oaying Turkey some €9bn in return for it pkaying ball with taking failed asylum seekers back.

There is going to be an EU budget sh.t fight as the countries which receive large annaul payments are asked to take a cut as Germany/France etc don't want to pay more. Elections there in 2017 remember

Molgrips - the Brexies are basically religious fanatics - you know, stick to their claims whatever happens, hatred is an acceptable tool (dress it as patriotism, nationalism, believing in sovereignty), anyone who doesn't agree with them is a heretic to be burned (or at least shouted down) and in extreme cases they believe it is ok to murder those who oppose you.
These are the people you are dealing with - don't expect to beat them with rational argument (they said that much themselves).

Waiting for the brexies to cry foul about sovreignity

now that we have swapped the evil EU hegemony for being supplicants to Trumpism, so desperate to secure a trade deal that 'British Values' come a distant second to America First.

Estimates are Germany €4-5bn, France €2-3bn pa etc, this is to maintain the same EU budget spending

how much do they save without having to give us money back? without us the EU budget spend reduces, non?

Germany is already facing €20-40bn pa for the 1 million migrants they took in

again. 40bn is YOUR number. also of the 1m migrants to Germany, a quarter of them are not refugees or asylum seekers.

pressure from US for them to increase NATO spending by €30bn to meet the 2% (they are barely over 1%)

did I misunderstand Mike's pie chart above? it's behind a paywall so I can't check. that appears to show Germany's defence spend at 5%?

I've just remembered that I meant to ask this a while ago....Andy (Jamba), ninfan-

The impending Euro debt crisis. As I understand it, we're not on the hook for that. We're [i]part[/i] of it in that our economy is considered part of an overall larger eurozone economy, and if a payout is needed we contribute- but my understanding is that we automatically and instantly are credited the sum back. We're really just there as a backstop.

That was the case in 2016- is this now no longer the case, would we have to pay, and then forego this payment...forever?

If this has been covered elsewhere then apologies, but it seems a central plank of your argument and I just....don't get it. I dont see us being at risk directly for, for example, any Greek economic collapse.

Now, I can see the risk to general economic wellbeing if the eurozone and beyond tanks, as we're a close trading partner, but thats not what I'm meaning here. I mean a specific, direct encumbrance to the UK as a result of any member of the EU's economy failing.

Cheers-

You did misunderstand I'm afraid Del. NATO want members spending 2% of GDP on defense, not 2% of government expenditure.

It's all bogus though, because the "defense" budget of each country contains, and is spent on, very different things.

Given the contents of the 634 pages, wanting a Yorkshire free of the UK and EU seems the only sane option.

kelvin - Member

You did misunderstand I'm afraid Del. NATO want members spending 2% of GDP on defense, not 2% of government expenditure.

It's all bogus though, because the "defense" budget of each country contains, and is spent on, very different things.

Yup. Frinstance, we have a load of american VA students studying here on full scholarships- that's defence funding, by the US definition. Upkeep of USS Constitution? Defence funding. I reckon it'll just lead to lots of moving things around in budgets and other accounting tricks.

Hmm, I would prefer a Yorkshire free of the UK but very much a part of the EU - celebrating our historic ties with Scandinavia and the Hanseatic League.

Hmm, I would prefer a Yorkshire free of the UK but very much a part of the EU - celebrating our historic ties with Scandinavia and the Hanseatic League.

It's not as if Germany is short of cash and the immigrants are creating an economic boom which is resulting in record tax revenues without increasing tax rates:

[url= http://www.sueddeutsche.de/news/politik/steuern-steuerrekord-2016-noch-hoeher-als-geschaetzt-dpa.urn-newsml-dpa-com-20090101-170127-99-50930 ]Record German tax receipts[/url]

Agree with above comments on USA food production standards but are we so sure that Europe is much better?

Latest example of poor animal welfare here:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=178919

just5minutes - Member
Agree with above comments on USA food production standards but are we so sure that Europe is much better?

Jamba, a large chunk of the govt contrib comes straight back in grants etc. The net effect is much smaller.

We have never been on the hook - we are not part of the Euro Zone. We did help last time and got our money back.

We are xposed economically to any weakness in the EZ irrespective our membership of the EU. Is silly to celebrate weakness there.

Agree with above comments on USA food production standards but are we so sure that Europe is much better?

Have you been there? As in, to supermarkets shopping for your own food? It's dreadful and sodding expensive too.

The economic case is that the UK will be much better off trading with India then the largest trading bloc in the world.

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India?

@slowoldman. A Free Yorkshire is an in or out question, just remember them there vikings did not visit for a bit of church gold and a shag. They were slave traders and Yorkshire was a good source of raw materials to sell to parts of Europe, bit like now really.

@mikewsmith, we can count on your vote then. You'll be buying the Landlord when tha visits.

Mike +1

Just5minutes - my wife, who is qualified to Masters level in animal welfare, worked on welfare for a meat producer and now works in marketing in the food industry could give you chapter and verse on this.

However in précis, don't confuse food standards about whether something is fit for human consumption / good or bad for you with welfare standards which are about whether an animal was treated in a reasonable way prior to slaughter.

Death itself is not regarded by those in the know as a welfare issue, but her MSc thesis was on welfare at slaughter - which involved amongst taking blood samples for analysis seconds after slaughter. Far tougher than me she is.

[i]Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India? [/I]

Stop bringing in facts at this late stage, we've got to this point by ignoring them...

Or just compare ourselves to Germany, they don't seem to have trouble exporting to non-EU countries:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India?

I thought any deal by a EU member state had to be agreed by all other 27 countries? and that's why everything takes an age to sort out?

Is there anything preventing us doing that regardless? Ie, does membership of the EU prevent us trading with India?

Trading and vesting in India is challenging. Nonetheless we have an active trade and investsment relationship. We are among the largest investors in each others economies and trade has increased rapidly. Sme bloke called Dave even took a trade mission ere six years ago and trade volumes doubled in the next five years. And guess what, we were members of the EU during the whole time.

stand corrected on the german defense spend, ta! 8)

[i]stand corrected on the german defense spend, ta! [/I]

Also different countries include different things in their 'defence' budget, ie the US includes its Veterans costs, whereas with us they're just a part of other Govt spending.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]Don't hold your breath.

Good advice. 30 odd replies and there has yet to be anything concrete forwarded.
Come on brexiteers, evidence and facts, why is it a good idea? I want to know how it is going to work?

Here's one while we are waiting

It's good news if your revenues are in $ but your cost are in £. Instant boost as seen by FTSE 100 > FTSE 250

My revenues in £ costs in Euros.
I think it should also be remembered that the post brexit predictions are still only predictions, we have not brexited yet, so any current financial indicators do not support or undermine leave or remain predictions.

Oops you are not the wrong side of the "trade" and it hurts

But look on the bright side we are faking control now or will be.

Luckily my costs are less than 5% of my turnover, so I can bear it.
I would just like to know what the plans are, I kind of understand the benefits of EU membership, I want to understand what half the country think is the real tangible issue with EU membership and how they see that leaving will make things better overall.
If you read the press and internet media it leaves you none the wiser as to how brexit will improve things.
Does anyone here know?

So is it now a case of jumping into bed with Dumpf or buying some flowers for our EU neighbours and saying sorry.

IMO the posts have been moved a country mile and we need to consider which gang we want to be with.

No, of course not. We're not the people who are going to decide, and the people who are going to decide have kept schtum. So no-one knows anything, which is a large part of the problem. And no-one knew anything BEFORE the vote either....

So is it now a case of jumping into bed with Dumpf or buying some flowers for our EU neighbours and saying sorry.

Anyone looking forward to all the shitty meat we'll be getting if/when we sign a trade deal with the US?

Those of us who want to eat safe, healthy food awoke to a nightmare on Tuesday, a chilling interview on Radio 4’s Today programme. Bob Young, chief economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, made it crystal clear that any US trade deal struck by Theresa May would be contingent on the UK public stomaching imports of US foods that it has previously rejected: beef from cattle implanted with growth hormones, chlorine-washed chicken, and unlabelled genetically modified (GM) foods.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/29/britain-us-trade-deal-gm-food-eu-rules

It's the guardian, so written from a certain angle. If anyone can point me in the direction of positive side of the story for animal welfare, food quality, antibiotic resistance, prospects of British farming's ability to compete, etc, please do!

The only other side of the story I've seen is a tweet from NFU to a farmer querying why Martin Haworth was suggesting lowering standards.

"@NFUtweets Hi James, the #NFU is pursuing the best possible future for #British #farmers&growers-lower production standards is not on the agenda".

lower production standards is not on the agenda

I suppose we could insist that our farmers stick to high production standards, yet still allow cheaply produced meat from other (non-EU) counties like the USA into the country in the future… but doubt this would end up being "the best possible future for British farmers", unless the NFU think farmers are better of being pushed (even harder) out of farming and into other lines of work.

It's hard for the NFU… they absolutely need to keep the government on side because the end of CAP will require new UK polices to be formed in the interest of their members… yet they know that the path the government is on is hugely damaging for their members… even if they are at odds with their members on that! Impossible conundrum. NFU leadership have some of the toughest jobs over the next 3+ years.

It has always been my opinion that meat and meat products imported into the UK should meet the same standards our farmers comply with.

Sadly, I think post Brexit the situation will be worse than it is now as we scramble for trading agreements. Ironic considering how many farmers want out of the EU.

Jamba, a large chunk of the govt contrib comes straight back in grants etc. The net effect is much smaller.

We get back about 60% of what we pay, £10bn is the rough net contribution I use (factcheck which I donate to says £8.5bn). I believe there are 30 differents ways of calculating our net contribution (that's the EU's estimate of the different ways) so it's a right dogs breakfast which is part of the problem

Del my estimates of German / French spending some figures I have seen on local media and ties up with that net figure above. When the migrants first started coming in Germany wouldn't give a figure other than €3bn for language teaching. I came up with 20-40 based on a per head cost of accomodation, medical, education and of course welfare. Germany has now given is figure of €20bn but IMO thats a big understatement.

NATO Germany spends about 1.1% only 5 of 30 (?) meet the 2% spending target. Of the spending 20% is to be on equipment. Being an anorak I have a copy of the NATO report. France doesn't do too badly they are at 1.8% but many other wealthy European nations are way below also.

There are loads of schemes that we contribute to that are tied to the EU, but not a part of it, hence many ways to work out what our total contribution is. Also why it is hard to work out how much we will stop spending, as the hope* is that we can arrange to still be a part of many of these schemes after we Leave.

[i][ *not by you though, I suppose ][/i]

We get back about 60% of what we pay,

Jambafacts aside that excludes all the collaborative and regulatory benefits we receive like membership of euratom, horzon2020 collaborations, European Medicines Agency, ERASMUS etc etc
And the cost of replicating the regulatory slack taken up by the EU, all government departments will have to expand , plus the monolithic brexit ministry....

I want to understand what half the country think is the real tangible issue with EU membership and how they see that leaving will make things better overall.

The main issue for most leavers is immigration, so less immigration = better overall.
Don't ask them about any other aspects, they won't have a clue but as long as the immigration number is down they are happy.

[quote=kerley ]The main issue for most leavers is immigration, so less immigration = better overall.

Why is less immigration better?

Foreigners = bad

Get with the program

"British jobs for British workers - mines a madras and a cobra while you are at it!"

Instant boost as seen by FTSE 100 > FTSE 250

The FTSE has gained 17% in the last year but the dollar has risen by 13%. The Dow has risen 26% in dollars and the DAX 19% in Euros. What that means is that FTSE companies are worth relatively less and are more vulnerable to take-over than a year ago. FTSE 250 companies make just over half their revenue in pounds. The boost is in fact a lag compared with other markets and measured in a falling currency. Anyone who chose to invest in Britain rather than the US or Germany over the last year has made roughly half what they could have done by investing US or Germany.

Erasmus is easy kimbers, there is a membership fee, ours will be something like £20m I think. All the other things yes I agree, a lot of smoke and mirrors so hard to know. What is a fact is that Germany and UK have been the major net contributors over the past 10 years. We have a trade deficit they have a trade surplus.

[quote=teamhurtmore ]Foreigners = bad
Get with the program
"British jobs for British workers - mines a madras and a cobra while you are at it!"

I understand this much...

jambalaya - Member
Erasmus is easy kimbers, there is a membership fee

so are you deducting that from your figures and of course you have a guarantee from the government?

Anyone who chose to invest in Britain rather than the US or Germany over the last year has made roughly half what they could have done by investing US or Germany.

UK investors are much better off, my pension is up significantly ie over 20% (invested in UK, US and Asia virtually zero in Europe). Most UK pension funds are up healthily, people are happy.

The FTSE has gained 17% in the last year but the dollar has risen by 13%. The Dow has risen 26% in dollars and the DAX 19% in Euros. What that means is that FTSE companies are worth relatively less and are more vulnerable to take-over than a year ago. FTSE 250 companies make just over half their revenue in pounds. The boost is in fact a lag compared with other markets and measured in a falling currency. Anyone who chose to invest in Britain rather than the US or Germany over the last year has made roughly half what they could have done by investing US or Germany.

how old fashioned!! 😉

Long $, FTSE 100
Short £, FTSE 250
Bingo

so are you deducting that from your figures and of course you have a guarantee from the government?

£20m pa is a rounding error. I am sure UK will be welcomed to carry on with Erasmus due to the high standing of our education plus of course the English language which students with an international outlook are keen to work on. I'd be 100% confident the UK Govt will continue with membership.

The EU budget is a rounding error

Erasmus is merely an irritant

rich people are happy.

ftfy

and poor people who don't like foreigners

dont forget them kimbers, that was a past mistake

I was wondering what percentage of UK tax take £8.5b is, and how much additional tax take being part of the EU represents?

I may have an idea of the answer, but I'd love to hear yours - particularly the Brexies.

Erasmus is merely an irritant

That is a quote that sums up your STW persona, THM.

I watched TM (threads get closed if you name her) on the box the other day and thought "this is THM, does he write her speeches or something".

I enjoyed my Erasmus exchange. 1990 it was

Edukator - did you engage your brain before writing the crass attempt at an insult? Do you not get sarcasm?

I have argued strongly on here about the value of Erasmus schemes and given that both Jamba's and my kids have benefited from it, that we should ensure that it remains available. I am a strong supporter. So wind it in, unless you are just trying to lose the "reformed" tag.

In answer to your other silliness, no why? That's what her grunts do.

oh touched a nerve there has he and given the efforts you go to get a rise oh the irony

anyway there is no way you could be mistaken for TM as she is at least open about being a tory party supporter

I assume you appreciate the sarcasm and are laughing now eh as you are many things but not a hypocrite 😉

Another piece on Greece. Familar refrain, Greece has met onky 1/3rd of the goals set for it to receive the next natch of funding. iMF says debt is unsustainable and eurozone must agree forgiveness (politically very tricky with elections looming, ie admitting the money was mostly a gift and not a loan).

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-01-30/greek-drama-returns-imf-schism-greece-may-jeopardize-bailout

Seems to me that Erasmus is just another of these special interests that certain folk want subsidies put towards.

Not sure why it is any more 'deserving than the others? Although I guess that since it's seen as something elitist than it's odds on it'll be supported.

More interested in their reports on German and French inflation and bond yields 😉

The IMF (of which we are a member) is saying nothing new. Creditors will have to take a hit. Good job that we are not a member of the EZ then!

If you lend to people who cant pay you back and create a system that cannot recycle surpluses you end up getting bitten on the ar$e

is the ZH webpage a new version, its as bad as the new STW one on a Mac? I havent been on for a month or so.

@igm we discussed the £8.5bn vs tax take a few times, some perspectives

Total tax take is £530bn (income tax about £165bn)

£8.5bn is the equivalent of 2% on VAT, so 18% vs 20% for example
£8.5bn is about 80% of total Stamp Duty collected in 2016
£8.5bn is 90% of Tobacco duty
£8.5bn is 90% of combined duty on beers, wines and sprits
Labour fought the 2015 GE on basis of a bankers bonus tax raising £2bn and that was their "we'll rescue the NHS" pledge

Page 7 of this

The French net budget contribution over time has been [b]zero[/b]

Of course £8.5bn is just 10% of the annual budget deficit Labour left us with in 2015 😯