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Well you can at least conclude that parliament doesn't think it's as bad as eating razor blades.
It could be very powerful to have Trump speak about the US/UK deal at the same time as we launch the Bill.
Will that deal still allow British women to have abortions?
Will he remember what he thought about Brexit to stay on message? Anyway Borris said he wasn't welcome (time for the lift pic) he's be as welcome as fart in a lift
I disagree Jambalaya.
A vote in Scotland would have put more pressure on SNP and given the PM more authority. Now Scotland and Northern Ireland get a free reign to moan about Brexit.
Same with Trump. He is very unpopular in the UK, and it will play against TM if she is too close to him.
I can't escape from the conclusion that [b]the individual well-off members of parliament[/b] doesn't think life outside the EU will be that bad. Or at least the consequences [b]for the well off[/b] will not be as bad as ignoring a close run referendum.
The big positive from a Leaver's perspective is that there will be no seperate approval from NI, Wales and Scotland all will be done in Westminster.
Agreed. An approval requirement from any of those administrations (all of whom who I think have publicly said it's a very bad idea) would have killed Brexit stone dead. So the Brexies live to fight another day.
Unfortunately given the Scottish and Northern Irish position in particular it is probably very bad for the UK. I wonder if the UK will exist when you and I are retired and sipping a nice red in the Alps. Switzerland for you wasn't it? France for me I think.
It could be very [u]powerful[/u] to have Trump speak about the US/UK deal at the same time as we launch the Bill.
high energy, even 😉
I can't escape from the conclusion that parliament doesn't think life outside the EU will be that bad.
Whereas I can't escape the conclusion that they may just be looking after number one...
If you're honest the truth is somewhere between the two!
Sturgeon's response
We will ensure the Scottish Parliament has a say on triggering Article 50
NICOLA STURGEON·TUESDAY, 24 JANUARY 2017
The Scottish Government welcomes the Supreme Court's ruling that Article 50 cannot be triggered without an Act of Parliament. It is a damning indictment of a UK Government that believed it could press on towards a hard Brexit with no regard to Parliament whatsoever.
It is vital that the Westminster Parliament is now given the fullest possible opportunity to debate and decide upon the triggering of Article 50 and also the terms of the UK's negotiating position. SNP MPs will seek to work with others across the House of Commons to stop the march towards a hard Brexit in its tracks.
We are obviously disappointed with the Supreme Court's ruling in respect of the devolved administrations and the legal enforceability of the Sewel Convention.
It is now crystal clear that the promises made to Scotland by the UK Government about the Sewel Convention and the importance of embedding it in statute were not worth the paper they were written on.
Although the court has concluded that the UK Government is not legally obliged to consult the devolved administrations, there remains a clear political obligation to do so. Indeed, the court itself notes the importance of Sewel as a political convention.
The Scottish Government will bring forward a Legislative Consent Motion and ensure that the Scottish Parliament has the opportunity to vote on whether or not it consents to the triggering of Article 50.
We will also use the meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee next week to continue to press for the sensible, compromise outcomes set out in the paper we published in December.
However, it is becoming clearer by the day that Scotland's voice is simply not being heard or listened to within the UK. The claims about Scotland being an equal partner are being exposed as nothing more than empty rhetoric and the very foundations of the devolution settlement that are supposed to protect our interests – such as the statutory embedding of the Sewel Convention – are being shown to be worthless.
This raises fundamental issues above and beyond that of EU membership. Is Scotland content for our future to be dictated by an increasingly right-wing Westminster Government with just one MP here – or is it better that we take our future into our own hands? It is becoming ever clearer that this is a choice that Scotland must make.
I think this is critical - especially for the labour party as it can "respect the referendum" but put amendments to the bill that will effectivly wreck it - ie must stay in the single market, must stay in the ECHR, ECJ, etc etc.
given that only 100mps want to leave the EU it should be easily possible to get majorities for the right sort of amendments to protect the UK and the devolved countries form the far right lunacy of the hard leavers
Thanks Bob.
Well so far today is running 100% in line with expectations.
I can't escape from the conclusion that parliament doesn't think life outside the EU will be that bad.
They are one group of people whose job will be made far far easier by lack of EU regulations.... this is what worries me.
ooohh isnt it nice when a lie comes back to bite the dishonest in the arse?
Labour MP Chuka Umunna says he will be seeking an amendment on the article 50 bill, or the great repeal bill, forcing the government to commit to the Brexit campaign promise that leaving EU would mean £350m extra a week for the NHS.
"They are one group of people whose job will be made far far easier by lack of EU regulations.... this is what worries me."
Wreck the economy, name themselves unelectable to save themselves a bit of admin.
...and that's if you accept being in the EU creates work for MPs, I think it's the opposite, the EU handles loads of stuff governments traditionally handle.
Labour MP Chuka Umunna says he will be seeking an amendment on the article 50 bill, or the great repeal bill, forcing the government to commit to the Brexit campaign promise that leaving EU would mean £350m extra a week for the NHS.
A good point to raise but good luck with that. Didn't the slogan on the bus say "We send the EU £350 million per week. Let's fund the NHS instead"
Not specifically stating that all £350 million would go to NHS but suggesting we could, although it was clearly trying to get people to interpret it as giving NHS $350 million.
Not specifically stating that all £350 million would go to NHS
The bus maybe but this..
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..couldn't have been much clearer (despite being furiously denied and disowned in the melee that followed).
Not specifically stating that all £350 million would go to NHS but suggesting we could, although it was clearly trying to get people to interpret it as giving NHS $350 million.
As part as for it I personally like to see a lot of the promises written into the a 50 bill, continuation of funding a plan for farmers, deals on residency etc. All of this before we jump.
"They are one group of people whose job will be made far far easier by lack of EU regulations.... this is what worries me."
And you should be bloody worried!! When we jettison all the EU laws, the politicians get a clean sheet of paper to write what they like to replace them all. Or not.
Just have a look at the people presently involved here... Ian Duncan Smith, David Davis, Liam Fox to name but a few..... then have a read on their previous positions on all manner of subjects like workers rights, and have a think about that for a moment. Have a think about what this 'red tape' they want so desperately to get rid of actually is.
Anyone with anything between their ears should all be absolutely ****ing terrified!!
mike: The defence will be that they weren't promises, because they weren't made by a single political entity. They were more like suggestions, or perhaps alternative facts, and they didn't influence the vote in any way obviously 🙄
Jamba said he'd fund the £350m personally anyway. I heard him.*
*this is an alternative fact
[quote=binners ]"They are one group of people whose job will be made far far easier by lack of EU regulations.... this is what worries me."
And you should be bloody worried!! When we jettison all the EU laws, the politicians get a clean sheet of paper to write what they like to replace them all. Or not.
Just have a look at the people presently involved here... Ian Duncan Smith, David Davis, Liam Fox to name but a few..... then have a read on their previous positions on all manner of subjects like workers rights, and have a think about that for a moment. Have a think about what this 'red tape' they want so desperately to get rid of actually is.
Anyone with anything between their ears should all be absolutely ****ing terrified!!
Fuhrer May...
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The defence will be that they weren't promises, because they weren't made by a single political entity. They were more like suggestions, or perhaps alternative facts, and they didn't influence the vote in any way obviously
And this is where politicians need to earn their cash. Yes Mrs May we will pass your bill if.... Quite simple 100% positive if there was a leader of the opposition, currently the snp may be leading the charge with the lib demo? If you want to see brexit die in a hideous pathetic collapse then you need to find the well hidden tory Europe split. Jam something in there and it will implode. At no point has any of them managed to agree on or come up with a credible plan. This is what a Parliament is for and time to get on to your Mp.
All parties need to think about this one very carefully with i suspect Labour in the worst bind. If the H of C votes against the Brexit vote then the government could easily walk away resulting in chaos until a new election can be run, then god knows what happens.
SNP can go for a new independence vote, but there is no evidence that the polls are turning their way and the have a harder currency case to build and also currently have to deal with a depressed oil sector. Not an easy sell.
Wales also seems to be in a mess with the public supporting OUT against the Labour administration and Plaid who want to be IN.
agreed
I dont think the parties have got their head around the brexit vote
if it continues to define politics, the way it has
I think a few were spooked by the richmond result
a hard brexit could go badly wrong, any future trade deals need to look very good, hence why jamba etc is hoping that Trump will play ball- pinning your hopes on someone like trump is a bit dangerous!
Applies to future scot referendum too, it may not make economic sense but if brexit starts to hurt scotland, people will vote with their hearts to reject a westminster they already distrust
Corbyn has little choice on A50 as many Labour consituencies voted Leave very strongly. Plus of course his longstanding and well documented opposition (on his own website and his voting record) to the European Union. If Labour loses those Leave voters they will likely lose many of those seats.
SNP will of course try make maximum noise, better to attack "Westminster" than try and use all the new devolved powers they have to try and do something positive.
As far as they are concerned, they ARE doing something positive, don't you think?
I think a few were spooked by the richmond result
Most have that result wrong though, the Lib Dems won because Goldsmith is an arse, come a general election and a proper Tory candidate and I just can't see it being anything other than blue.
SNP need to reverse the feeling everything is moving to the central belt to the determent of the rest of Scotland.
come a general election and a proper Tory candidate and I just can't see it being anything other than blue.
like vince cable? 😉
jambalaya - Member
SNP will of course try make maximum noise, better to attack "Westminster" than try and use all the new devolved powers they have to try and do something positive.
Harumph.
The real problem for the SNP is the 20% of their voters who voted OUT. Anecdotally there are lot of folk moving from NO to YES as they consider it more important to be in the EU than the UK - my parents for example actually campaigned for NO last time but now would vote YES. But this trend is not reflected in the polls. I guess a bunch of folk are moving the other way - that 20% of SNP voters who voted Yes and OUT might have decided the UK is better than the EU? Hard to figure out why no real movement in the polls and I am very surprised by it.
Jamba - the new powers that are basically meaningless and an obvious trap set by the tories?
@TJ did you see that Government stat of the amount of business Scotland does with UK vs EU ? Having tariff free access to the UK is much more important. An iS will look very exposed economically with a WTO deal with the UK and a $50 oil price.
The new powers allow the Scots to raise taxes, its a trap in the sense that will cost them money not raise more. No more a trap than UK faces
Given 67% of labour voters didn't feel like quitting on Europe, I suspect the sensible move would be to come out for remain.
There are some strong Brexy labour constituencies but the Brexy vote there could easily split far left far right letting a moderate remain candidate clean up.
Then there is York Outer with its Brexy Tory MP. We voted remain overall. There are s few constituencies like that where a strong showing by labour and the libdems for remain could easily upset the Tory majority.
Act 2 opens. Interesting times.
[quote=jambalaya ] An iS will look very exposed economically with a WTO deal with the UK and a $50 oil price.
Estimated 24 billion barrels of oil remaining in the North Sea
That's worth $1.2 TRILLION at the current $50 per barrel
I'm sure we'll be ok on the tax take from that
And if we're such a poor wee nation, and such a drain on the English taxpayer, why are you so keen to hold on to us?
EDIT
And how do all these piddly wee countries survive with a WTO deal?
tjagain - Member - Block User - Quote
The real problem for the SNP is the 20% of their voters who voted OUT. Anecdotally there are lot of folk moving from NO to YES as they consider it more important to be in the EU than the UK - my parents for example actually campaigned for NO last time but now would vote YES. But this trend is not reflected in the polls. I guess a bunch of folk are moving the other way - that 20% of SNP voters who voted Yes and OUT might have decided the UK is better than the EU? [b]Hard to figure out why no real movement in the polls and I am very surprised by it.[/b]
The polls fly in the face of everything I'm hearing from actually speaking to people.
Everyone I've asked who was a no voter before, is now a yes voter. And I've asked a lot of people.
I've never been polled. I've never heard of anyone I know being polled. I suspect they pull the poll results out of thin air.
That a question I have yet to see answered Bob
Jamba - also the tories have said publicly that every penny the scots raise in extra tax will be taken off the block grant. NOt official policy but enough influential folk have said it that I am sure they will try. You going on about that discredited laffer curve nonsense again?
If the H of C votes against the Brexit vote then the government could easily walk away resulting in chaos until a new election can be run, then god knows what happens.
The best outcome for May would be lose the HoC vote. Use that an an excuse to call a Gen Election on a remain ticket (change the law to allow a shorter term) come back with a workable majority instead of 12 and carry on as if nothing had happened.
Regrettably, Johnson, Davies and Fox would need to resign having failed to deliver.
Problem solved. Simples.
The tricky bit is losing the vote.
Bob -if the SNPs own polling was showing anything different do you not think they would be shouting it from the rooftops?
Anecdote is not evidence remeber
And if we're such a poor wee nation, and such a drain on the English taxpayer, why are you so keen to hold on to us?
I am not sure that we are. The English have never voted on whether they want Scotland to remain in UK. The level of racism shown via the Brexit vote would make me wager on England voting for Scotland to leave (helped along by some campaign BS about how Scottish people are the cause for all ills)
Right Theresa, prepare 3 line (max) motion, present it, get it passed, trigger A50 and get ready to start negotiations in April. Let's see if Jezza's good for his word.
Some astonishing claptrap being spouted today including let's have a second referendum and we didn't vote to leave the single market. The lack of basic understanding on the latter shows how stupid the former is as an idea.
Kerley - given the veiled racism (from the ugly elements of both sides actually) during the independence referendum you may be right.
As a Scot living in England, English nationalism is something that worries me (and let me be clear 99% of folk are fine, lovely even, 99% of the time - it's the rest that is worrying)
Some astonishing claptrap being spouted today including let's have a second referendum and we didn't vote to leave the single market. The lack of basic understanding on the latter shows how stupid the former is as an idea.
That needs more explanation.
Estimated 24 billion barrels of oil remaining in the North SeaThat's worth $1.2 TRILLION at the current $50 per barrel
To put that into perspective the costs of some of the newest fields in the North sea are BP Clair Ridge $7.5 billion and Nexen Golden Eagle $3.3 billion. Dana Western Isles is hitting nearly $2 billion, isn't yet onstream and needs an oil price of $95 a barrel to break even.
PS any of you EU debaters in London currently?
That needs more explanation.
No it doesn't
At best we can negotiate a form of access to the single market depending on how red the lines are on FOM etc.
Leave won, get over it. Most of the dross being spouted today is nothing more than an attempt Ito ignore the vote.
The Tories git bad advice/were arrogant, they have had their wrists slapped and they now have to do things correctly. Nothing more than that....unless there are 24/7 news channels to feed. There is no surprise today.
THM - remind me
Are there any countries in the single market but not the EU? Norway perhaps?
Is there a different article to be triggered to leave the single market as opposed the the EU? 127 perhaps?
And did the voting slip mention the single market?
So they are linked, but not the same and the vote mentioned only the EU.
At best we can negotiate a form of access to the single market depending on how red the lines are on FOM etc.
Ok - so I should say 'we didn't vote on how much single market access we wanted to swap for how much migration'.. that better?
I think there were certainly some people who were expecting a Norway deal afterwards. It was talked about a lot. This was the whole point - what 'out' would look like was not at all discussed, as I'm sure you'll remember.
Most of the dross being spouted today is nothing more than an attempt Ito ignore the vote.
But there should be a debate on how to shape the exit, shouldn't there? Isn't that what this is? The focus of my despair has shifted slightly from May to MPs in general. I don't want them to roll over and support her frankly bonkers plans.
The Tories git bad advice/were arrogant
They are still being arrogant.
The Tories git bad advice/were arrogant, they have had their wrists slapped and they now have to do things correctly
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By the way did anyone notice if Farage lead 100,000 marchers to the Supreme Court?
Wimped out I think.
igm - Member - Block User - Quote
By the way did anyone notice if Farage lead 100,0000 marchers to the Supreme Court?
Unlikely. It appears he was on a couch with Pierced Organ
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Spicer said there were 120,000 - but you might want to take that with a pinch of salt
Are we back on arguing that a vote to Leave the EU automically gives a mandate to leave the ECJ, ECHR, Single Market, Customs Union… on and on… despite lots of countries being selectively members of some and not others? It was a vote to leave the EU. It was narrowly won, and, in my opinion, far too narrowly won for the government to claim any mandate for a bonfire of our relationships with all supra-national bodies in Europe, and a grand repeal of domestic regulations and protections that have built up while we've been in the EU. Don't let a group of [s]nutters[/s] [i]highly principled core anti-EU campaigners[/i] dictate what the referendum vote meant, beyond the simple truth that, on a particular day last year, more people wanted to leave then remain in the EU.
Don't confuse "membership of" with "access to."
Very different things.
That is why I said "leave" rather than "stop being a full member".
Don't confuse "membership of" with "access to."
So which did we vote for again?
What an absolute total ****up. Really ****ing depressed again now. Definitely going to look for jobs in Sweden now.
...selectively members ?
The referendum was not about one type or the other it was about whether the great British people wanted to leave the EU or not. They voted to leave.
But there should be a debate on how to shape the exit, shouldn't there? Isn't that what this is? The focus of my despair has shifted slightly from May to MPs in general. I don't want them to roll over and support her frankly bonkers plans.
There is a good reason why the debate around, and a public vote on, the shape of the exit, is being avoided at all costs.
Lots of contradictory views of what leaving the EU entails is how the Leave vote was won. Trying to narrow that down to one view that the majority of Brits aren't dead set against, is impossible.
[i]They voted to leave[/i] [b]the EU.[/b]
The referendum was not about one type or the other it was about whether the great British people wanted to leave the EU or not. They voted to leave.
Yes but you know full well that you can be out of it but still have a wide variety of relationships with it. So why is there no public consensus on what our relationship will be? Why do we have to conform to May's own idea?
A possible (but now unlikely thanks to the government) new position for us…
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My country voted against leaving 2:1
😉
I think that diagram is rather good - for one reason.
None of the circles is labelled "single market".
I think the EEA is closest to what I understand the single market to be (we are currently members by the way and it's not clear that by leaving the EU we cease to be members).
Article 127 of the EEA agreement sets out the mechanism for leaving the single market. it doesn't say a former EU country ceases to be in the EEA when it leaves the EU. (Though apparently May thinks it does just like she thought she could thwart parliamentary sovereignty)
whether the great British people wanted to leave the EU or not
Oooh. Ignore the Northern Irish why don't you THM. 😉
None of the circles is labelled "single market".
Because, surprise surprise, it's not that simple. Ask farmers in Norway.
EEA "requires" FOM - complete or partial, "We" want to stops the nasties coming in (apparently) hence its off the table. MAy is somewhere between FTA and customs union but much more towards the former as a basis for her bespoke deal.
Neither major party will achieve consensus in the issue, the Lib Dems just want to ignore the vote, the Welsk want to ignore their people and the SNP are just mischief making. WTF is going to be achieved by having this table debate the issues. We have done that. And we know the result, Stop fannying around - this is a negotiation remember, we have a minor card to play against the EUs trumps. All this BS today makes you think it's the other way around. It's not.
Oops, that's what 24 hours north of the border does for you. Good spot my friend!
Article 127 of the EEA agreement sets out the mechanism for leaving the single market. it doesn't say a former EU country ceases to be in the EEA when it leaves the EU.
No but being in the EAA means you agree to the four freedoms:
The EEA Agreement provides for the inclusion of EU legislation covering the four freedoms — the free movement of goods, services, persons and capital — throughout the 31 EEA States.
([url= http://www.efta.int/eea/eea-agreement ]Source[/url])
And FOM is a red line for Theresa May so I can't see how we could stay in the EEA?
Isn't what your describing basically the "Norway Solution", leave the EU and rejoin EFTA? I think that has been pretty comprehensively ruled out now.
Ruled out by the government, ahead of negotiations. Not ruled out by the referendum.
Unlikely. It appears he was on a couch with Pierced Organ
Did they review Trainspotting 2?
FoM may be a May red line, but the point is that she is going beyond the remit of the referendum while claiming it as the will of the people.
If she came out and said she doesn't like the EEA / EFTA then I might have a little more respect for her - but she keeps claimed the British people have spoken.
Well yes they did. And they said on the question of the EU, we're a little more out than in. But on anything else they weren't asked. If they had been they might have spoken.
PS isn't the nickname submarine May taking on new significance with the lies of the last few days.
Maybot must be a bit upset about the push for a white paper means ever more scrutiny and points she can be held to when negotiations fail and we are left with a hard Brexit and a trashed economy.
[b]Ruled out by Merkel, ahead of being[/b] ruled out by the government, ahead of negotiations.
Ruled out by the government, ahead of negotiations. Not ruled out by the referendum.
Referendum showed quite clearly we wanted no FOM and no ECJ, hence no EEA. Thersa has a very clear mandate for her current course of action. If she agrees any budget contribution paod by central Government there will be a rebellion. If City wants special access they should pay for it by a specific extra levy/tax.
Personally speaking WTO please and let's spend our time focusing on Global opportunities.
hard Brexit and a trashed economy.
Hard Brexit = optimal. Only trashed economies are going to be in the EU, especially Southern Europe.
Ruled out by Merkel, ahead of being ruled out by the government, ahead of negotiations.
Source? My understanding is Merkel and others ruled out Single Market "membership" without FoM. It is May ruling out FoM, and ECJ or similar, and therefore ruling out SM, in an EEA or EFTA fashion. If May said we wanted a deal like Norway, we'd probably get it, with bells on, not that it would help our famers etc, but she has ruled it out because she is dead against FoM and courts.
Maybot must be a bit upset about the push for a white paper means ever more scrutiny
"The SNP responded to the ruling by saying it would table 50 "serious and substantive" amendments".
[quote=jambalaya ]Referendum showed quite clearly we wanted no FOM and no ECJ, hence no EEA.I don't recall questions on those being asked on the ballot paper.
Indeed slow hence my comment earlier about just making trouble for trouble's sake.
Bill will be ultra short and targetted to A50 it will be virtually un-amendable. All night sessions etc if required. Speaker is going to have a hell of a job on his hands.
Crystal clear if you where paying attention to the debate Scot. Remember Remain "threatened" us that a Leave vote was a vote to leave the Single Market. We responded YES PLEASE.
[b][i]Trouble for trouble's sake..[/i][/b]. or MPs doing their job… they NEVER abdicated responsibly on this matter… they voted for an advisory referendum, and should have started working on what happens next 6 months ago, rather than May doing her submarine act and thinking she is the only one that needs to respond to the referendum. If the government tries to rush through an empty blank cheque of a bill, MPs should refuse to be frozen out in that way.