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Maybe the reality is she figures the EU is better off without us?
theocb - Member
Haven't enough polls been shown to be completely inaccurate for you people to stop listening to them?
You need to understand polls - it was my father's life's work (he's retired not dead) and some of it wore off.
On Brexit the polls were stunningly accurate. There was a difference between the online and non-online polls, which probably reflected the age bias in the eventual voting, but even the online polls were within a couple of percent - which is in line with the normal margins of error. The non-online polls were absolutely in the money.
"Polls were in accurate" is a Brexit fallacy.
In the States, the polls probably got the popular vote about right but were a few tens of thousands (total) out in 120 million who voted in terms of the patterns in the swing states that made the difference.
Polls are a fairly good indicator of what's going on but in events that are a couple of percent either way never perfect.
Which is why the age breakdown with its 2/3:1/3 split is probably a more interesting use of them.
Perhaps your father would prefer 'polls can be used as one indicator of what is happening' rather than this 'fairly good' 'probably' malarkey 😀
I think you may have your facts back to front in the online/non-online part of your post?? or maybe I have misunderstood
And no 'polls are inaccurate' is not a Brexit fallacy (another made up point to suit your own bias) They were all skew-whiff in the GE too
I'm sure your father wouldn't be over happy to see people using basic polling results used as a stick to beat others with. Probably maybe fairly likely I reckon 😀
The old folk are worried about losing the countries of the past and are seeking to re-establish the half forgotten borders and barriers of their youth,
I suspect that nostalgia plays a big part of this. We probably all remember grandparents reminiscing wistfully about the halcyon days of their youths, where everyone knew each other and they could leave their front door unlocked. (Y'know, if they managed to live past 40 without getting dragged under a cotton mill or something.) And now thanks to the media spin they've suddenly got a demon whose fault it all is that times have changed - the EU. Once we leave it'll all be jumpers for goalposts again.
Theocb - the non-online polls predicted a narrow victory for the Brexies. Go check.
Just re-reading you post theocb and while you assume a lot about my father and what he might prefer, I'll let that slide.
What I am curious about is this statement...
I'm sure your father wouldn't be over happy to see people using basic polling results used as a stick to beat others with.
Who's beating anyone with any stick?
The polls should always be looked at with a view of the associated error margin - if you don't know that then you don't know what you're looking at.
Here's the Brexit opinion polls. Some each way, and eventually a very close result. Given most polls used to have have a 3% error margin, and the type of poll affected the score (online and telephone gave more to remain), then 51.9:48.1, a 1.9% swing, is not out of line really.
I have and it still looks like online polls were the more accurate in the referendum.Theocb - the non-online polls predicted a narrow victory for the Brexies. Go check.
😀 I didn't think I was being rude about your father tbh but apologies if that is what you thought, I was suggesting someone who has spent their life working on polling information might ask others to use the information gathered cautiously, especially when using that info to create a few more 'probably, maybe, fairly likely' scenarios.
So nobody on this thread is using basic poll information to blame anyone for the result of the referendum? Whooa, that's a good'un 😆Who's beating anyone with any stick?
Well I'm not.
There is fairly good evidence that old folk were more in favour of borders and barriers, while young folk were more in favour of the opportunities that an open Europe presented.
But I'm not blaming anyone for anything.
create a few more 'probably, maybe, fairly likely' scenarios.
Agreed. I thought that's what I had done.
The online polls were more pro-leave than telephone, but as I recall in person was more pro-leave again.
In the last 10 days the polls were 8-7 in favour of leave if I've read that link right. So the polls got it about right.
This really cheered me up... possibly the most appropriate spelling mistake ever 🙂
Although I doubt very much it was a genuine mistake...
[img] 
[/img]
Remember when Deloitte said Brexit's gonna cost you due to the extra civil servants needed?
And our Brexy government said what do they know they don't even work for us?
Turns out that was a lie. They were assisting the Brexit department with financial planning and budgets.
Who'd have thought it?
There is fairly good evidence that old folk were more in favour of borders and barriers, while young folk were more in favour of the opportunities that an open Europe presented.
I would be interested in having a read of that fairly good evidence if you have a link handy??
I'm not sure it's as clear cut as that sounds (to me)
Brexit: Berlin business leaders unimpressed with UK's message
The distinguished audience members were too polite to heckle. But the eye rolling, frowns and audible tutting made it quite clear how the Brexiteers' message was going down with German business leaders.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38707997
The laughter from the audience quickly turned to s****s as they heard the UK described as "a beacon of open, free trade around the world".
who's says the germans don't have a sense of humour 😆 they obviously know a couple of clowns when they see them !
Klunk - Member
who's says the germans don't have a sense of humour they obviously know a couple of clowns when they see them !The laughter from the audience quickly turned to s****s as they heard the UK described as "a beacon of open, free trade around the world".
BBC is playing the toll now.
errrmmm ... trust me German sense of humour is very different to the British, coz theirs are more organised and more bureaucratic. 😆
My German IT code writer friend would laugh at programming codes when someone deliberately messed with the codes ... 😛
Theocb - three for starters. You are welcome to find others.
The most recent poll data I found was this from Sky of all people. The age discrepancy was notable and well in excess of any error margin that I would expect.
From the Guardian (Observer not Guardian technically) commenting on a recent poll (which I accept I am trusting them not to lie about - you never know they might be)
And again from just after the referendum.
There were a few more in the weeks after the referendum too.
[I]Deloitte, however, had been hired along with other consultancy firms – on a pro-bono basis, or for a nominal fee of £1 – to help set up DExEU after it was created last summer.[/I]
You only work for free when either you've further work lined up or you believe that you will get further work..., at inflated rates no doubt.
igm. I did have a look for some 'fairly good evidence' of the statement you made but I couldn't find anything. I couldn't find any evidence let alone some fairly good evidence
None of those links are 'evidence' of what you suggest 😕 That was my point from earlier, it is very easy to use the results from a specifically designed poll to fit unconnected generalisations and slightly twisted words.
The first link is a poll about leaving the single market?
It was just a question about leaving the single market! you seem to have decided that older people answered based on borders and barriers and young people have answered based on 'the opportunities of the EU', neither of those things were in the question asked.
I was struggling to see how the other 2 links were even connected to what you were saying.
errrmmm ... trust me German sense of humour is very different to the British
errrmm ... trust me German sense of humour is very similar to the British. The English and German parts of my family laugh at the same sort of things.
My German IT code writer friend would laugh at programming codes when someone deliberately messed with the codes ...
No idea what an "IT code writer" is exactly, but I know plenty of British geeks that would find that sort of thing amusing. Myself included.
That's because they are your family.slowoldman - Member
errrmmm ... trust me German sense of humour is very different to the British
errrmm ... trust me German sense of humour is very similar to the British. The English and German parts of my family laugh at the same sort of things.
I worked with Germans who speaks perfectly good English but even they have to ask me to explain the British sense of humour and I come from the far east!!! 😆
German mate is super doper software programmer that earns plenty of dosh put it this way in 3D environment ... he tried to explain to me ... it was very hard for me to sit still trying to pretend I know what he was on ... 😆GrahamS - Member
My German IT code writer friend would laugh at programming codes when someone deliberately messed with the codes ...
No idea what an "IT code writer" is exactly, but I know plenty of British geeks that would find that sort of thing amusing. Myself included.
I worked with Germans who speaks perfectly good English but even they have to ask me to explain the British sense of humour and I come from the far east!!!
Perhaps they were just as baffled by your sense of humour as the rest of us?
Surprisingly they understand me very well ...zokes - Still not a customer
I worked with Germans who speaks perfectly good English but even they have to ask me to explain the British sense of humour and I come from the far east!!!
Perhaps they were just as baffled by your sense of humour as the rest of us?
Cougar my wife voted against the EU Constitution in the 2005 Referendum. Having been defeated (France voted No) the EU just rolled it all up into the Lisbon Treaty and everyone approved that Sarkozy included. Classic anti-democratic EU. She and many of her family hate what the EU has become - very similar attitude to me a community for business yes, political union no. Chris as you'll well know the "far left" where very much against the EU Constitution in 2005 and like Corbyn et all they remain so. Does your family's village/town honour the requirement to provide space for Romany / Travellers ?
If we believe the Remainers my inability to live "permanently" in France would be a big problem for her.
DrJ anyone retiring abroad could be considered "wealthy" in local terms, most do it for better weather (important with old bones and joints) and of course as the money goes much further. EU is not going to jeopardise this. As far as I am concerned anyone is welcome to come to the UK with a work visa or ro freely buy property (without the restrictions we see in Denmark or Switzerland)
Germans are not laughing as they bery well know without the UK their project is in serious sh.t also as a massive exporter the fall in the £ is very painful even without tariffs. They are probably also crapping themselves about the Southern European debt crises and the impact on them.
Deloittes is in maximum kiss arse mode to try and get themselves out of the mes created by their employees leaked memo. They well know they would not get hired by the Government for anything right now so they are giving themselves away for free.
yes they have a space for Les Gens du voyage .
not an issue . much more problematic when they have nowhere to go .
German mate is super doper software programmer that earns plenty of dosh put it this way in 3D environment ... he tried to explain to me ... [b]it was very hard for me to sit still trying to pretend I know what he was on ...[/b]
It was dope, you can sit still now.
. Does your family's village/town honour the requirement to provide space for Romany / Travellers ?
That's a departure? Where are you going with this?
Does your family's village/town honour the requirement to provide space for Romany / Travellers ?
Is this the law, when taken to the letter, means that those who use camper vans as daily transport can't park in town for fear of setting up mini communities?
He refers to a requirement for every town of a certain size in France to provide a space for the traveling community . they can only stay a maximum of a few days .I assume it must be a EU requirements .
Probably not an EU requirement as I don't think it applies in UK and you'd have thought that UKIP and other racists would have picked on it pretty quickly.
No, this sounds like the Spanish law where campers aren't allowed in urban areas for fear of free camping. I can see how it could be twisted though.
Deloittes is in maximum kiss arse mode to try and get themselves [s]out of the mes created by their employees leaked memo[/s] in on the millions and millions in consultancy fees that the taxpayer will have to squander on Brexishambles over the coming decade(s).
F t f y
Deloitte were working for free BEFORE the memo was leaked . Apparently it is common for agencies to do work like that to secure future work .
Deloitte have agreed not to bid for governement contracts for the next 6 months .
but N10 said they were NOT working for them when the memo was leaked . clearly a lie . any comment on that ?
I assume it must be a EU requirements
Even better than that. It's the loi Besson, which was brought in during the time Jospin was pm, so it's the Lefty coalition's fault although I'm sure that we will soon be informed that it was actually some nefarious EU plot against the good people of whatever well-to-do part of Grand Paris jamby lives in.
Does your family's village/town honour the requirement to provide space for Romany / Travellers ?
I've no idea, but there's no shortage of them so either the answer is "yes" or it doesn't matter as they're doing it regardless.
From the World Economic Forum, debt per head of population. Ireland, Greece, Belgium and Italy take note
Interesting link.
Were you not singing the praises of Singapore's low Corp tax approach a few pages back?
Not sure it's working perfectly for Ireland either.
It looks there will be troubles ahead for many in the EU. 😯
Why are you ignoring Japan, Singapore, USA, Canada, Iceland…?
Vote Brexit to get rid of those foreigners - get Californian Mexicans instead. So many ****ing idiots, Estamos jodidos!
How is this taking back control?
Japans debt, along with its immigration stance and birth rate is a kilotonne sized economic timebomb.
Also ineresting to note just how unfair the world economic stage is, isnt it. We can rack up these crazy levels of debt but no one can be ****ed to write off laughably insignificant debt like the Congos - so many struggling countries that find it hard to lift themselves out of poverty whilst the G20 spend like crazy to keep their positions and even hit the developing world with protectionism so they havent got a chance in hell.
****s.
kelvin - Member
Why are you ignoring Japan, Singapore, USA, Canada, Iceland…?
Because not many of them come from the same zone by comparison to those coming from EU zone.
USA big and strong and can manage debt
Japan, has never recovered from 1980's blow up. Yup its a big problem.
Singapore, well run debt easily manageable (also not sure if they have divided debt by local population which is only 1/2 of country, rest are expats on short contracts paying relatively high taxes). Singapore borrows for investment in ports and infrastructure. No welfare state bills to speak of.
Iceland - tiny
So let me get your statement right Jamba.
USA not a problem because it's big.
Iceland not a problem because it's small.
I don't think that's what you meant even though it is what you said.
Theocb - what do you think I was saying?
Don't worry igm, he will have some #alternativefacts for you shortly...
Singapore's Soveriegn Wealth Fund is larger than their debt. Friend pointed that out overnight
So what's the list of countries that want easier immigration in exchange for a trade deal....?
India
Australia
America
Who did miss?
At least it'll give the right wing press foreigners to hate on after brexit
And before anyone says, it'll only be skilled workers....
We have shortages access the board: nurses, doctors, construction workers, plumbers, sparkies, fruitpickers, an ever growing number of carers for our aging population of daily mail reading xenophobes 🙄
Well all countries owe money to and borrow money from other countries. So with a bit of Bistromathics around the dining table it should be possible to work out what the net debt of each nation is - and cancel the rest.
Oh no, the banks wouldn't get their interest.
Just spotted this on Facebook:
[i]Guy Verhofstadt:
The European Parliament will have to give its assent to the new treaty governing the relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom. As a negotiator for the European Parliament, my position is clear: we will never accept that a state non-member of the eu could enjoy the pleasure of a more favourable status that a member state. It is not to punish or humiliate the United Kingdom but to reaffirm that the EU is a space of freedom and solidarity only for those who accept that their rights are with homework.[/i]
You mean the people won't get their savings back edit - in reply to slowoldman)
You mean the people won't get their savings back edit - in reply to slowoldman)
Oh I doubt the banks would be bothered about that point of detail. it's the interest income they want.
@cougar. So this guy Verhofstienr is basically saying, if we don't do our homework we get humiliated. I didn't do any while at school an I ain't doin any now. Reckon thats why there was an out vote.
Can't wait for the Free Yorkshire referendum.
Interesting, Jamba. But even more interesting is the ability of the citizens to pay off that debt. In Japan saving is so high they aren't far off IIRC. And France not only has a lower per capita debt than the UK but savings are higher so it's less of an issue, yet some on here point the finger at France saying there's a debt problem. In the UK there's a double problem, public and private debt.
It was late so perhaps didn't explain well. Two points, can country manage the debt and if not does a default make any global / regional impact. USA has a large and well diversified economy together with a sophisticated Treasury. Iceland is tiny (300k people) and has none of those and if it blew up it wouldn't really matter to anyone globally or even regionally (note F-wit UK local authorities had a lot of money with Icelandic Banks in 2007/8 which was idiotic, eg Guildford lost £5m)
If (when) those EU nations run into a refinancing problem it's going to create a very large issue. The fact they have been able to get into that state is a failing of the EU/eurozone.
Jamba - I thought that was what you meant - it just wasn't exactly what you said. Not sure I'm quite as optimistic about the US with the apprentice statesman in the top job, but it may be OK. Turning to the UK, debt is a real problem, particularly personal debt when that seems to be the only thing supporting the general economy (outside London at least).
In other news I see you are writing for the Guardian now - or someone very like you.
[i] Two points, can country manage the debt and if not does a default make any global / regional impact[/I]
Based on comparing us and the Germans, we've a serious problem then...
[i] (note F-wit UK local authorities had a lot of money with Icelandic Banks in 2007/8 which was idiotic, eg Guildford lost £5m)[/I]
Lets be clear, UK Treasury shouldn't have been let uneducated folk 'invest' this cash. Any decent corporate uses a central Treasury function to manage it's cash and so should've we.
And with TM announcing more money available today to industries.
Are we going to end up like Greece and Italy as we have to borrow to do all this investment in British industry?
i don't think we're going to have to worry about all this investment in british industry. it's nebulous at best, certainly WRT manufacturing. however low the pound goes, you're not going to compete with china on wages, or malaysia for that matter, at least not for another 10-15 years, when their economies mature.
@b r absolutely, people like me have been very concerned about our deficit, thats why we have been supporting painful budget cuts. Asuterity seems to be the buzz word, I prefer living within our means. When other people's money runs out you end up like Greece (real pain there yet to come sadly). Germany won't look so clever when it has to find €30bn extra pa for NATO and write-off most of the €100bn it's gifted to Greece etc etc.
Definitely agree with what you say about central control of the cash float or as an absolute minimum an approved panel of banks for local authorities to work with. That's what a bank does, central approved list and delegated authority to place funds depending on local terms / relationship reasons.
@Del China already losing out to other Asian players like Vietnam which can make things cheaper.
Finally, brilliant news India, Australia and America want improved access for their citizens in return for trade relationships. This is just what I voted for, exchange VISA BASED access in return for trade where it makes sense. Complete freedom of movement with equal rights as oir citizens have made no sense at all for A10 EU countries. None.
molgrips - MemberAre we going to end up like Greece and Italy as we have to borrow to do all this investment in British industry?
Why would that improve the quality of food available at reasonably priced restaurants?
It may not be a perfect indicator of economic activity but has anyone noticed how quiet the roads and trains are at the moment?
Finally, brilliant news India, Australia and America want improved access for their citizens in return for trade relationships
good luck selling that to the xenophobia pedaling right wing press that Vote Leave owe so much to.....
Infact didnt May already rule it out with India because of those very fears....
Re Mr Verhofstadt (or as Farage calls him "the high priest of the EU") he needs to understand many of us think the WTO option is a materially better deal than being in the EU. Paying £10bn per year for the EU to sell us more than we sell them was a diabolical deal.
So you're saying we don't get £10Bn extra tax by being part of a European trading club?
Finally, brilliant news India, Australia and America want improved access for their citizens in return for trade relationships. This is just what I voted for, exchange VISA BASED access in return for trade where it makes sense
Phew we can finally "take back control" of our borders. What were [url= https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics ]latest Net Migration figures[/url] again 189,000 from the EU?
Disgraceful.
With proper visa based access we'll soon have that down to the level of non-EU migration, which is... er... 196,000 😆
I'd love to see a politician telling Leave Voters that what they actually voted for was more immigration from different countries.
Do you think May will be brave enough to spin that one?
Paying £10bn per year for the EU to sell us more than we sell them was a diabolical deal.
Forgive me for not believing some random on the internet when it's been widely publicised that business leaders disagree.
Or have we had enough of experts Jam?
It may not be a perfect indicator of economic activity but has anyone noticed how quiet the roads and trains are at the moment?
Actually no. Cardiff city centre was rammed yesterday, and it's supposed to be the dead time of year.
Q: Is the EU a busted flush ? He dodges the question but at least Newsnight is asking the right question 🙂
General interview on globalisation/Trump/Brexit/Michael Ignatieff from Central European Univsersity in Budapest.
That must be where everyone is then molgrips.
Jamba - EU? busted flush? Who knows. But equally post Brexit you could aim the same question at the UK. When inflation starts to bite, and it will not least because of Brexit exchange rates, and interest rates aren't quite so good, and credit for your man or woman in the street is a little harder to get - well, watch how our economy goes then.
Remember the American nuclear policy of past decades - Mutually Asssured Destruction? Probably not a good idea to apply it to trade, however much certain Brexies want to.
And the Welsh are demanding Norwegian style access to the European market...
Three of the four UK countries have spoken. A 75:25 split. That only leaves England now.
well, watch how our economy goes then
Read between the lines igm, Jamaba doesn't care if the UK economy goes down the pan for a few years, as long as we are out of the EU, because… something to do with past attempts to regulate financial services… and because he's not personally at risk from a downturn.
That only leaves England now.
Even if the occupants of England want us to stay in the Single Market, the government do not, and, without any vote about either this issue, or on who gets to make up the government, this will not change. We don't even have a (English) opposition to the government on this issue (ignoring the single figure count of LibDems and Green).
and because he's not personally at risk from a downturn.
and because his wife hates it here and they're going to spend 6-9months a year out of the country anyway.
We did the department of Brexit lying about Deloitte the other day, now we have lies from May about whether she knew about misfiring missiles, Clark lying about whether the UK government discussed missle tests and Fallon claiming the test was successful when the Americans are pointing out the missle had to be self-destructed.
Now, do you trust this shower to do the right thing over Brexit?
PS there are reports circulating that red, white and blue Brexit actually means a white former colonies Brexit.
Who'd have thought it?
Now, do you trust this shower to do the right thing over Brexit?
I never did.
Yes. But are you more inclined to trust them, less inclined or about the same? 😉
All the Leavers are happy to exchange a short term bump in the road economically to get the benefits of a more globally focused economy. We will be much better off out imo.
About the same here. On the basis that politicians [s]lie[/s] [s] are economical with the truth[/s] use alternative facts anyway.