[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

I think those Ministers and MPs who are hard quick Brexiteers, are afraid that the longer the negotiations take, the more likely it is that the national and political momentum will turn against Brexit and eventually stop it.

Theresa May strikes me as much more of a pragmatist than a conviction politician. After so many years honing her political skills and judgement in opposition and then in the invariably politically difficult role of Home Secretary, she is now probably playing a long waiting game.

She has given Johnson, Davies and Fox the key ministeries in Brexit negotiations. If they succeed in the negotiations and deliver a deal that is generally considered a good one for the UK, then she will get much of the political credit for it.

However, if the wheels start to come off the Brexit wagon over the next couple of years and there were a major shift in national sentiment against Brexit, then I expect she will have no qualms about acting decisively to change course or even cancel Article 50. She would not do this unless she were very confident of winning over the great majority of the Conservative Party MPs, and their views would be heavily influenced by their vulnerability to losing their seat in the next election and the liklihood of the Conservatives not winning a majority in Parliament.

So, for those hoping to see Brexit fail, things would probably have to get quite bad before Theresa May would or could act. If it did happen, then I expect she would be ruthless in seeking to destroy the hardcore Brexiteers in her Cabinet and party, to prevent the sort of trouble that John Major endured from his 'b*****ds'. Ironically, it would give Boris Johnson the perfect opportunity to emulate his hero, Churchill, by switching sides again ("anyone can rat, but it takes a certain ingenuity to re-rat").

This is all probably very unlikely to happen, but I note that Sterling still has not recovered, and that is going to have inevitable impacts in the next couple of years, with a General Election looming on the horizon.

@slow we' e waited 40 years to get another say on the EU. Trust me we are not going to change our minds. Ontop of this I believe the EU is going to enter a major crises in the next 2 years amd getting out is going to look very smart to most Remainers too.

I am not worried about the course of the negotiations as we know the EU is going to be a shambles and it will only be a matter of time before the 27 start breaking ranks (we've already had the Parliame t and Commission arguing over who is in charge). Merkel is in all sorts of trouble over the migrant crises and the prospective economic shock of tariffs on German cars will weigh very heavily in the run up to German General Election in autumn 2017. In the event of a Le Pen victory in France who knows what will happen ? The EU is going to have to deal with Trump too.

Our focus should be global, I think the EU isn't worth a lot of time and effort.

To be fair on Jamby, France and Germany have pretty much been arseholes to us since the closet fascist De Gaulle decided he didn't like us. My head drove my remain vote, but there is definitely a part of me that resents the EU's political landscape.

[quote=jambalaya ]@slow we' e waited 40 years to get another say on the EU. Trust me we are not going to change our minds.

You might not, because it seems your motivations are down to the EU stifling traders by regulating them. However you do seem to keep [s]denying[/s] forgetting who you are in bed with - not only all the racists and bigots who are also unlikely to change their minds because they're too stupid to do so, but also a lot of ordinary people who believed all the lies and some of whom will start to realise it's not all going to be wonderful. We were after all already there months ago and it's only going to go one way: http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-vote-regret-leave-margin-victory-2016-10

As I've mentioned several times, I'm with Tom and also many others who deeply dislike the EU bureaucracy, but accept that even so we're still better off being a part of that.

To be fair on Jamby, France and Germany have pretty much been arseholes to us since the closet fascist De Gaulle decided he didn't like us.

Our focus should be global, I think the EU isn't worth a lot of time and effort.

Trust me we are not going to change our minds.

It's this kind of deluded thinking done with her total confidence that really worries me. You do not speak for all leave voters, never have, never will.

Tom launches an attack on Germany, France and de Gaulle but forgets to check what they actually had to say and forgets that it was GB that didn't want to be in the Common Market before changing it's mind and wanting in but on it's own conditions - nothing has changed there. So as we're into huge quotes on this thread, De Gaulle:

«La Grande-Bretagne a posé sa candidature au Marché Commun. Elle l'a fait après s'être naguère refusée à participer à la Communauté qu'on était en train de bâtir. Et puis ensuite après avoir créé une zone de libre échange avec six autres Etats, et puis enfin après avoir, je peux bien le dire, on se rappelle les négociations qui ont été menées si longuement à ce sujet, après avoir fait quelques pressions sur les six, pour empêcher que ne commence réellement l'application du marché commun. Enfin l'Angleterre a demandé à son tour à y entrer mais suivant ses propres conditions. Cela pose sans aucun doute à chacun des six Etats et ça pose à l'Angleterre des problèmes d'une très grande dimension.

L'Angleterre, en effet elle, est insulaire. Elle est maritime. Elle est liée par ses échanges, ses marchés, ses ravitaillements aux pays les plus divers, et souvent les plus lointains. Elle exerce une activité essentiellement industrielle et commerciale, et très peu agricole. Elle a dans tout son travail des habitudes et des traditions très marquées, très originales. Bref, la nature, la structure qui sont propres à l'Angleterre diffèrent profondément de celle des continentaux.

Comment faire pour que l'Angleterre telle qu'elle vit, telle qu'elle produit, telle qu'elle échange, soit incorporée au Marché commun tel qu'il a été conçu et tel qu'il fonctionne. Par exemple, les moyens par lesquels se nourrit le peuple de la Grande-Bretagne et qui est en fait l'importation de denrées alimentaires achetées à bon marché dans les deux Amériques ou dans les anciens Dominions, tout en donnant, en accordant des subventions considérables aux agriculteurs anglais.

Ce moyen-là est évidemment incompatible avec le système que les six ont établi tout naturellement pour eux-mêmes. Le système des six ça consiste à faire tout avec les produits agricoles de toute la Communauté. A fixer rigoureusement leur prix. A interdire qu'on les subventionne. A organiser leur consommation entre tous les participants. Et à imposer à chacun de ces participants de verser à la Communauté toute économie qu'il ferait en faisant venir du dehors des aliments au lieu de manger ce qu'offre le marché commun. encore une fois, comment faire entrer l'Angleterre telle qu'elle est dans ce système-là.»

There's a history of the EU yielding to the UK's demands (Thatcher, Cameron) yet Britain continues to act as a petulant child. If Article 50 goes in don't expect the same indulgence again.

yet Britain continues to act as a petulant child

That's because we're 'special'

[i]His resignation took Downing Street by surprise, coming some eight months before his job was due to end or be extended.
So the hunt is now on for an envoy who can speak truth to power while retaining the confidence of Downing Street, who knows Brussels but is not seen as being part of Brussels.
Sir Ivan is expected to stay on for a few weeks while such a diplomatic paragon is found.[/I]

I do like the commentary from the BBC on the resignation article, "speak truth to power" 🙂

IDS has predictably launched into 'Enemy of the People' style attack

The comments from brexiters on social media are incredibly abusive towards Rogers and filled with a kind of desperate naiveté, repeating the '[i]they need us, more than we need them[/i]' mantra to try and ward of reality as it closes in on them

The comments from brexiters on social media are incredibly abusive towards Rogers and filled with a kind of desperate naiveté

If on the 31st of March, which is less than 90days away so not long, May invokes article 50 and the current level of information isn't massively improved anyone care to place bets on the value of the pound on April 1st??

who knows Brussels but is not seen as being part of Brussels.

IDS needs a lie down in a quiet dark place if his performance on Radio 4 this morning is anything to go by. Bonkers

IDS needs a lie down in a quiet dark place if his performance on Radio 4 this morning is anything to go by. Bonkers

when your replies are so facile that the host cant surpress their own laughter Id take it as a sign that you are convincing no one

I heard IDS too. They still haven't got beyond "brexit means brexit". Have they literally no idea how many people are worried about their jobs because of this? It seems they are both highly critical of anyone not committed to brexit, yet at the same time, so worried of appearing to fail they dare not state what they are aiming for. This endless nonsensical doublethink continues...

"Hurry up"
"Get on with it"
Etc etc.

Why the big rush, Jamba, what's the hurry? You've "waited 40 years," what's a couple more to ensure that you get what you want in a proper manner that gives us the best possible outcome if and when we leave?

The rights and wrongs of Brexit aside, surely when we're undertaking a hugely complex massive constitutional change to our country which has repercussions across the continent if not globally, [i]surely[/i] the most sensible way to approach it is carefully? If you were building a house you'd want to take the time to do it properly rather than pressuring the builders to throw it up in an afternoon, otherwise it'd probably fall down twelve months later. As my grandad used to say, "measure twice, cut once."

Every time I hear "get on with it" from someone, my viewpoint shifts from "we have differing political views" to "I'm dealing with a f***ing idiot here." It does you no favours.

Kimbers spot on.

Every time I hear "get on with it" from someone, my viewpoint shifts from "we have differing political views" to "I'm dealing with a f***ing idiot here."

+2

It also makes me think that that person hasn't grasped the scale of what they're asking for.

+3

"get on with it"

Shouted loudly during the Meaning of Life IIRC. When your public communication starts to resemble a Monty Python script you probably need to stop and take stock of the situation.

+4

[img] [/img]
+5 It's never the one at the front shouting get on with it

+ 5

because the brexopahs know they got the % they did in the referendum on the basis of lies and falsehoods and know are terrified of being found out and are desperate to trigger Art 50 in order that it is then too late for anyone with a grip on reality to do anything about it.

IDS has never given a txss about anyone, he is not going to start now.
And his estate is guaranteed £160000 of grants, Brexit or not.

Is there a date for delivery of the supreme court ruling or is it just some time this month? Can't find a date online

I think too much is being read into Sir Ivan Rogers' departure.

Firstly it has been said that [url= http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38369452 ]Cameron's EU negotiators took criticism of the deal offered by the EU very personally[/url], and after a lot of hard graft on their part this is understandable, but equally it's understandable that since their deal was rejected in the referendum, it is likely to be appropriate that a different person takes on that job.

Sir Ivan is a Whitehall civil servant, not a (self serving) career EU employee as Jambalaya has said upthread, and those senior civil servants probable have little difficulty in adjusting to having to implement U turns and major policy changes as required by any new political master. Neverthless, after a couple of years of trying to negotiate a better deal for the UK, the Brexit negotiations will be vastly different in tone and approach, and it probably makes sense to have a new face in this role who does not have a lot of baggage of past EU dealings and including having needed friendly working relations with his EU opposites.

Secondly, and probably more importantly, with the vote for Brexit his role is now a lot more important and critical than when he was originally appointed, and I expect that Downing Street will appoint a more senior civil servant to replace him.

+6

I heard IDS too. They still haven't got beyond "brexit means brexit". Have they literally no idea how many people are worried about their jobs because of this?

They're zealots. Everything must be sacrificed at the alter of their unhinged ideology.

To quote their idol, its all 'a price worth paying'. Nobody they know personally will be paying the price though, obviously. It'll just be the little people

[img] [/img]

Maybe you should read his letter and come back.

Business leaders in London Are not best pleased.

I think too much is being read into Sir Ivan Rogers' departure.

Firstly it has been said that Cameron's EU negotiators took criticism of the deal offered by the EU very personally, and after a lot of hard graft on their part this is understandable, but equally it's understandable that since their deal was rejected in the referendum, it is likely to be appropriate that a different person takes on that job.

Perfectly understandable reading his departure letter his reasons for leaving.
[img] [/img]
[img] [/img]
Usual suspects making their own points as usual

IDS was pretty open that Ministers believed he leaked the "10 years" comment and then his own resignation essay. No confidence in him. Had to go.

Brexit should be used to address our approach to farming and food. Spot on.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-is-an-opportunity-to-rebalance-british-farming-eu-common-agricultural-policy-end-new-a7508026.html

"Cheaper than the Daily Mail and Daily Mirror and Ten Times better"

Brexit facts and all that.

No confidence in him. Had to go.

I hear they have nearly decided which blue it means and will be moving on to the red shortly.

The opening header of that article Jammers....

[i]The end of the Common Agricultural Policy in Britain will be a chance to subsidise sustainable farming, not wealthy landowners, claims a new report[/i]

Yeah... I can really see Theresa, IDS, Boris, Liam Fo xand the rest of the Tory party weighing in on the side of the environment, against those bastard wealthy landowners they hate so much

"Those British farmers have really upped their game since Brexit and are sticking it to us Eurofarmers. More efficient, less subsides, etc."

"Yes. Lets subsidise the ba5tards out of existence."

@mike he was due to go at end Oct anyway (so 10 months).

Yup. Every time a see a brexmoron appealing to the left side of politics by claiming we'll be able to spend xyz on sustainable abc all I can do is laugh at their stupidity.

Most people on the left grudgingly accept the EU as at least being a backstop against the sort of unsustainable neoliberal crony capitalism the Tories specialise in. Does anyone really think that once we're out of the UK any political cause traditionally of the left will improve its lot? Really?

Remainers you know you are [I have a potty mouth] when your number 1 cheerleader is Nick Clegg 😀

OK so. 10 months, his logic stands up fine, the other side of not being ignored and asked to deliver the impossible will also probably count for something.
Had to go? Only seems like a very minority view so far. On the 10 years thing, wasn't that about the consensus of everyone not shouting Do it now!

The Brexit negotiations are going to be a nationally damaging fiasco. They are negotiations that anyone capable of conducting will inherently be against for the same reasons that the country voted for Brexit in the first place.

A farce - and one that is going to get very un-funny when the negotiations (from a weak position) start to unravel very rapidly against british interests.

Remember what you did - all those of you who voted for this mess.

loved this one from Lothesome

I also know how important seasonal labour from the EU is, to the everyday running of your businesses.

I’ve heard this loud and clear around the country, whether in Herefordshire, Sussex, or Northamptonshire, and I want to pay tribute to the many workers from Europe who contribute so much to our farming industry and rural communities.

Access to labour is very much an important part of our current discussions

so its unskilled workers ahoy!!
.

as for rogers, its hardly surprising that IDS is once again out to destroy the reputation of anyone that dares speak the truth over brexshit

coming from a man whos own career is a litany of failure, there cant be many that actually believe a word he says

Remainers you know you are ****ed when your number 1 cheerleader is Nick Clegg

Given the cheerleaders for Brexit, and worse - the ones allegedly in charge of it, that's got to be the least self aware post you've ever made on this forum

[b]Ambassador[/b] to the EU. Says it all really. An ambassador is what you have to interact with [b]another country.[/b]

As coverage is saying, he was a Remainer and EU-phile at heart and the wrong man for the job post June 23. Together with Cameron he did a terrible job in the so called "renegotiation"

IDS Open? Oxymoron.

Says it all really

As coverage is saying

The coverage is saying that he knows the other EU countries better than anyone else. Which is exactly the sort of knowledge we want when conducting negotiations. But, it seems he didn't kneel in front of the Inquisition and recant, so he's out.

What on earth are you whittering on about now, Jamby? The man's job title? Is that really the best you can do?

This is starting to become a little

[img] [/img]

Only you can replace the "I'm invincible" bit with the somewhat bizarre idea that the EU and indeed the rest of the world will somehow brown down to our defunct empire and aircraft carriers without planes.

Ambassador to the EU. Says it all really. An ambassador is what you have to interact with another country.

We have an ambassador to the UN as well.

I don't think you know what you're talking about.

Remainers you know you are ****ed when your number 1 cheerleader is Nick Clegg

and yours is IBS!

[img] [/img]

 

So let's resume the UK government position :
Same access to the EU marketplace even if it costs a lot of money.

More skilled immigrants from outside the EU.

Same numbers of unskilled immigrants from the EU.

No immediate changes to current legislation.

I think this is going rather well.
Please tell us again why we are leaving?

-1

The more I hear "let's wait, why hurry" the more my heart and head sinks. A decision has been made. Period. The next phase is a NEGOTIATION between us and [s]Frankfurt/Berlin[/s] 27 other states. The framework for debate and the various options are known. The knownnun known is simple the unique solution that will result for the [s]red, white and blue[/s] UK Brexshit solution/compromise. Delays cannot help this process, they merely hinder it (or give remainers fasle hope that we can turn back time - we can't).

So let's have the CoJ opinion (no change) present the Bill, pass it and FFS get on with ending this period of madness.

Why dId we vote to leave??? Didnt you read the [s]bus[/s] script?

1. £350m
2. Keep the nasties out
3. Give the folk in immigration 'owt to do
4. ditto the legislature - those folk in wigs, robes and ermine
5. Trade deal with the 12% of the world we don't have deals with now, while screwing the 88% that we do have

Source: #fakecontolwebsite

Simples. Why didn't anyone think of this before?

I don't think the options are known

The problem is until May comits to what we are hoping to get out of it...
In customs union?
In single market?
Freedom of movement?
ECJ?
Cake or no cake?
Brexit for brexiters or 48ers?

Negotiations can't really get on with it until the red lines are drawn.

Even those who'll be doing the negotiating are still in the dark about it, and quite obviously IDS too.

Brexishambles

We know what we want (our cake) and what is not available (the chance to eat it). The unknowns are simple how to reconcile the two. The answer can only come from negotiation. So bring it on.

Red lines!!! Be serious. We are in the weaker position. We can't draw red lines, we will merely observe them. Our fate was determined by the vote - that can't be changed. The best we can do is to make the best of a bad job. The Brexshit utopia is a mirage so no point in even entertaining it (if only it was funny!)

Excuse all typos (^) new ebsite and iPhone are not compatible!!!

As coverage is saying, he was a Remainer and EU-phile at heart and the wrong man for the job post June 23.

Funnily enough both times and telegraph Brussels correspondents saying he wasn't surprised by brexit and wasn't a remoaner at all

Jambafact!

Anyone who dares say anything vaguely based in reality is to be driven out and discredited

Together with Cameron he did a terrible job in the so called "renegotiation"

In my view that deal offered significant improvement over what was already quite an advantageous agreement for the UK. Especially on the monetary side of things. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36456277

I think a 'terrible job' is inaccurate.

Together with Cameron he did a terrible job in the so called "renegotiation"

I think we need to see the results of any forthcoming negotiations before we pass judgement on that, don't you?

On the contrary - Dave played a blinder (*almost) and got a deal that will be seen as infinitely more superior to the one that will emerge from the negotiations, when they start!

* his error was the bravado in spinning this as reforming Europe. It was never that and should have been presented as such. Beginners error.

THM, May could at least set out an objective. We are in the far weaker position, however a clear statement we are looking for EEA membership, or Swiss position, or Turkey, or a clean break. Would at least reveal a plan in place and if it goes tits up she can try and blame the EU (again)

Although May will be screwed which ever she picks as all groups won't like some element of the outcome.

She has - she wants a unique solution for the UK, pisstaking aside that was what was meant by red white and blue Brexshit

red white and blue Brexshit

[img] [/img]

Just look at all those red lines. All over the pissing place and half are broken. Seems strangely apt.

Ambassador to the EU. Says it all really. An ambassador is what you have to interact with another country.

We also have one to the UN and to NATO and I imagine we will keep them post Brexit

she wants a unique solution for the UK

I loved the "unique" line. Of course it's bloody unique, it's the first time it's ever happened. If I stick a crochet needle up my urethra that'll be unique too but it doesn't mean it's good.

No we are not having a vote to decide the fate of my jap's eye.

Delays cannot help this process, they merely hinder it (or give remainers fasle hope that we can turn back time - we can't).

The answer can only come from negotiation. So bring it on.

My friend in the FCO says that the government isn't anywhere near close to having the staffing sorted to begin the negotiations, so waiting makes sense, no point firing the starting gun when you haven't even put your running spikes on yet. March is optimistic enough.

The only thing I can assume is that she was thinking of the French flag when she said she wanted a red, white and blue Brexit.

Barnier is going to have our lot for Breakfast.

We also have one to the UN and to NATO and I imagine we will keep them post Brexit

And one to the OECD.

Ambassador is a rank in the FCO, the job titles are normally "Permanent Representative to…"

Jamba will be along to back up his "fact" about what an Ambassador is soon I suspect…

[i]…only Nations matter, all supranational organisations are evil, yadda yadda…[/i]

Don't forget NW I was a remainer

Unique is simply stating the obvious as you note

If I stick a crochet needle up my urethra that'll be unique too but it doesn't mean it's good.

I doubt you'd be the first person to do that.

We are leaving the EU for the medium and long term gains. The sonner we can get on with that the better.

So let's resume the UK government position :
1) Same access to the EU marketplace even if it costs a lot of money.

2) More skilled immigrants from outside the EU.

3) Same numbers of unskilled immigrants from the EU.

4) No immediate changes to current legislation.

1) Same access for zero payment, if rejected we'll go WTO and make net £8bn ba in tariff profits or a total £18bn swing in our favour. Plenty for the NHS or to make transition arrangements for specific sectors / products.

2) If the UK government decides it's in our interests

3) if the UK government decides it's in our interests, all under a visa programme and much flexibility on taxation (eg no tax free personal allowance for temporary workers, compulsory health insurance ?)

4) As of day 1 probably not given May's commitment and the Repeal Bill although change to EHCR process and implementation eg EU residents right to remain upon leaving prison revoked immediately) in short order. I see no reason to wait until 2020 as May has suggested as it was already a 2015 Manifesto commitment.

What if the UK government decides to do something effing stupid?

They haven't got a great track record lately, have they? Be honest.

Same as before then.
Quite the opposite of what you want.

Jamba will be along to back up his "fact" about what an Ambassador is soon I suspect

sobriety - Member

I doubt you'd be the first person to do that.

[proteststoomuch]It'd be the first time I'd done it though.[/proteststoomuch]

1) Same access for zero payment, if rejected we'll go WTO and make net £8bn ba in tariff profits or a total £18bn swing in our favour

You can spout made up numbers again and again but it won't make them true !

I thought a 40- 60bn loss was the more real number

Junkyard, I was being sarcastic, I don't expect him to back up any of his bullshit really.

I'm still waiting for his list of countries that are not a party to any trade deal, but have successful economies…

We don't need a free trade deal with anyone nor do we require a saviour. They are a nice to have. Most countries do just fine without

That's "most" countries doing fine without trade deals… which is his back up plan… no trade deals with any country… against the 70+ we currently have… despite previously claiming that the EU stops us getting trade deals.

Go Andrea 8)

Further confirmation we will be leaving THE single market as EU farming regulations will not apply. We'll be free to ban pork from Poland and the other 5 nations currently in breach of EU animal husbandry rules.

Like Norway then?

http://www.norway.org.uk/norwayandcountry/Current-Affairs/Norwegian-Politics/NORWAY-EU-AND-EEA/#.WG1FmOvfWrU

[i]The European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement ensures that Norway [b]can take part in the EU single market[/b], and thus benefit from the free movement of persons, goods, services and capital. It guarantees non-discrimination and equal rules and competition throughout the EEA.[/i]

[i][b]The Agreement does not cover the EU common agriculture and fisheries policies[/b], the customs union, the common foreign and security policy, justice and home affairs or the monetary union.[/i]