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Why do you predict unemployment to fall?
Because my guess is a good as yours ? 😀
UK Expats live in many non-EU countries where they have no permanent right of residence. Spain, Portugal, France and Italy are not going to be sending back relatively wealthy UK expats who as a number of us have pointed out generally live in areas the locals regard as less attractive as there is little work. Each EU country is able to make it's own "visa" policy, the UK is well aware of this and it won't be a negotiation point. Expats will be able to stay the only question will be access to healthcare and whether it's free/recipricol or requires the purchase of an insurance policy.
@Nipper I predict a fall in unemployment over the next 12 months. You really should read the Swales report for an insight into Leave voters, two clear groups those in more manual jobs (with lower education levels and likely lower pay) & unemployed plus the more affluent Eurosceptics.
Ah, you're Mystic Meg and I claim my £5.00 - do you do palm readings aswell, as for the rest well I don't even know what that means - please put up a link to the report.
Because my guess is a good as yours ?
OK guess work then....
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate
UK unemployment is currently near all time low figures, it doesn't get much better than this in terms of the rate.
Spain, Portugal, France and Italy are not going to be sending back relatively wealthy UK expats
Not at all but if they start charging them handsomely for healthcare etc. some may come back and others may just fall victim to a bigger game around freedom of movement - your view is to turn away a group of young healthy people who pay tax etc. into the UK for very little return.
Jobs are already going in science and research, construction could be next and manufacturing isn't that hot except for when it's demanding subsidy.
Not a mass shift, but don't forget that the Tories will get blamed for Brexshit even thought the PM is a remainer but merely executing a promise.
We have "uncontrolled immigration" (sic) and record employment levels. Go figure Brexshiteers!!
@mike you where just as ceratin about the reasons Trump couldn't win. The UK is going to be just fine outside the EU. In fact it's going to propser.
It may prosper despite Brexshit, but we have made it unnecessarily hard to do so
True I got that one wrong, however your just making wild statements, see the facts unemployment is very low already people are losing jobs so it's not going down. The UK's deal outside the EU will be tougher than we currently have at best, very few people who remain as massively confident as you are seem to be able to come up with any good reasons just spin and made up numbers with a constant wish for harm to the EU
EU citizenship. Thought this was interesting. The EU voted to reject the concept of "puchasing" EU citizenship in 2014
What’s more, the Lisbon Treaty of the EU doesn’t allow for any kind of citizenship — associated or otherwise — for citizens of countries who don’t belong to the EU. To wit, the bloc’s de facto constitution states that EU citizenship “shall be additional to and not replace national citizenship” and that to obtain EU citizenship a person must “[hold] the nationality of a Member State….” There are no existing plans to change the treaty.
So basically the starting point will be zero right to remain for Brits abroad and EU citizens, a culling of the seasonaires starting their ski seasons right now and a return to Visa's for all. Progress got to love it.
link to s. sales report Jambalaya?
I am suggesting your motives in this are less than pure and it's mainly about getting shot of safe guards and making out like bandits.
These threads would move along much more smoothly if people spent less time worrying about perceived "motives"
By the time we are out of the EU I'll be pretty much retired, there'll be no time to "make out like a bandit". For 10 years my job has been constrained by excessive and irrelevant EU regulations. I have a global client base and my competitors are global, neither group care about or are bound by EU rules. My biggest European client is in Lichtenstein (where EU citizens put their money to avoid EU "protections" aka needlessly complicated and over bearing regulations).
I care about Sovereignty very much, in fact it's probably my number 1 issue.
It's a few pages back but probably lost in the debate 😉 happy to repeat here.
The Casey report on racial segregation has some startling paragraphs and the EU Referendum imo had a bit of a protest vote about that too although a lot of that wasn't directly attributable to the EU, freedom of movement had made that worse however and in many respects was just "pouring gas on the fire"
Yep read that the first time, doesn't change much especially when you couple it with the piece from the Guardian where leave voters were much more certain that they would not accept a Brexit that negativly impacted them. Even UKIP supporters are stepping back from hard brexit due to the negative impact on them finacially. This is the point where the new car smell has gone and you work out what you really got. The speed at which the amazing promises were rolled back and abandoned mean TM etc. will have a really tough job selling a vision of Brexit to the people and parliamnet. Got to remember Jamby you are on the extreme side of the Brexit vote which appears from your posts to be the at any cost must leave the EU, the loose collective rabble that voted leave are spread across a wide range of views many of which are not compatible with each other.
I care about I care about Sovereignty very much, in fact it's probably my number 1 issue. very much, in fact it's probably my number 1 issue.
Interesting. Probably why I can't understand your motives - I'm not a very good nationalist you see. For me a nation is a good way of picking sporting teams, or having a national drink or national dress. As a Scot we pretty much have those already - although some of our sporting teams ain't what they once were. Beyond that they're just trading blocs to me. The fondness of countries for armies means that a supra-national body to dampen jingoistic zeal is often a good thing, and a court that is exposed to many law making processes similarly has advantages. Countries in the mid-20th century style are part of the past.
And for all that I regard myself as the greater patriot than the flag waving my country first type. It's just my belief is in a culture not a power bloc.
And before I forget, that culture is a living interacting thing that assimilates and disseminates, lends and borrows, evolves with other cultures.
Not sure the Brexies understand the evolving culture thing.
Not sure the Brexies understand the evolving culture thing.
indeed
Bexit is all about clinging onto a past (that never existed)
you cant stop the world from changing around you, no matter how hard you wish for it
or xenophobia kimbers - don't forget the xenophobia!
@tj you live under a misunderstanding, a Free Yorkshire will not be a republic. If you'd been reading the miss named and deluded Scotish indy thread of some time ago, it was made clear that the great one would be King. Geoffrey Boycott has the answers to all things Yorkshire requires.
As to TTIP or its US/UK equivalent, it'll be based on more golf courses for the Donald (the US Geoffrey Boycott).
I still haven't seen a decent answer to the question of exactly what is wrong with people in Brussels deciding some of our laws or people in Strassbourg ruling on some of our cases. Some of whom are British anyway.
Would you think it's a good idea for say Texas to complain about pepole in Washington making their laws? Or Munich complaining about those in Berlin?
I still haven't seen a decent answer to the question of exactly what is wrong with people in Brussels deciding some of our law
Personal opinion here.
The UK has had such a stand offish approach to the eu over the years that rather than get stuck in and involved we have stood at the side and complained. It leads to the eu "imposing" stance where other countries accept that they jointly reached the decision.
Would you think it's a good idea for say Texas to complain about pepole in Washington making their laws?
Interestingly they do.
@molgrips, thats a good question.
Texas folk do complain about Washington law makers (the reason for Trump?) but the work under a Common Law system rights of the citizen.
I suspect but have no proof that Munichers complain about Berlin lawmakers in the same way as Manchester complains about them scummy MP's at Westminster. The law in Germany (and almost all of Europe but not UK) is civil law, that is the state grants the rights. As opposed to common law in the UK which is based on rights won from the state.
As such I can see an argument for saying that a legal system of one type would find it difficult to rule on that of another, due to fundamentally different foundations.
Alternatively I could be talking bollox. In a free Yorkshire keep it simple, If yer float yer guilty, and if yer sink it's oops sorry.
Interestingly they do.
And that [url= https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements ]"brexit"[/url] didn't end well.
In 1861, a popular referendum voted to secede, making Texas the seventh and last state of the Lower South to do so.[5][7][8] Some wanted to restore the Republic of Texas, but an identity with the Confederacy was embraced. This led to the replacement of Texas themes for the most part with those of the Confederacy, including religious justification given in sermons, often demanded by petitioners.[6] The transference to the Stars and Bars was in the hope of achieving the inclusion perceived by some to be denied by Washington.[7] However, that shift was never complete. Clayton E. Jewett wrote in Texas in the Confederacy: An Experiment in Nation Building that its identity remained somewhat separate from the rest of the Confederacy. James Marten wrote in Texas Divided: Loyalty and Dissent in the Lone Star State, 1856–1874 that it battled between loyalty to the Confederacy and dissent and its ambivalence may have been enough to assure Southern defeat.[7]During the war, Texas was spared most of the actual fighting, with only Galveston seeing any military engagement with Union forces. However, the war did take a serious toll in the way of chronic shortages, absence of men at home to run the economy, military setbacks and fear of invasion.[7] Although Lincoln recognized Texas's history as an independent nation, his definition of the Union meant that Texas forever ceded this to be subject to the Constitution.[1]
, If yer float yer guilty, and if yer sink it's oops sorry.
Farage is definitely a floater, one that just won't flush
[quote=igm ]I care about I care about Sovereignty very much, in fact it's probably my number 1 issue. very much, in fact it's probably my number 1 issue.
Interesting. Probably why I can't understand your motives - I'm not a very good nationalist you see. For me a nation is a good way of picking sporting teams, or having a national drink or national dress. As a Scot we pretty much have those already - although some of our sporting teams ain't what they once were. Beyond that they're just trading blocs to me. The fondness of countries for armies means that a supra-national body to dampen jingoistic zeal is often a good thing, and a court that is exposed to many law making processes similarly has advantages. Countries in the mid-20th century style are part of the past.
And for all that I regard myself as the greater patriot than the flag waving my country first type. It's just my belief is in a culture not a power bloc.
here here...
Sovereignty is an artificial construct, much the same as religion, manipulated by clever men as a means to influence the masses with the aim of achieving more power.
Beware UK law - it may not exist. E&W law, Scots law etc
There are significant State vs Federal tensions in the US and as we said before they had a civil war to create a single country.
The EU is corrupt, inefficient and staggeringly incompetent. it is by design anti-democratic. It's a problem for them to be in charge of anything.
As for sovereignty the French people saw the dangers in the Maastrict treaty and the Referendum to approve it was passed 51/49 and of course the Danish rejected it. In 2005 both the French and the Dutch voted against ratifying an EU constitution. When people are given a clear choice on EU matters they tend to vote against and to protect their Sovereignty.
Sovereignty - so 20th century
Jambas, given the EU success in stimulating trade in G&S and the personal benefits that you and I and our families - its hard to reconcile you arguments re global trade/clients and the desire to be part of a protectionist, isolationist movement that seeks to reduce freedom of movement in the key factors of production. Its an illogical stance IMO.
Finance in particular has been a major beneficiary.
The[s] EU [/s] Brexit process is corrupt, inefficient and staggeringly incompetent. it is by design anti-democratic. It's a problem for them to be in charge of anything.
How id the EU undemocrsatic? All decisions are either taken or ratified by either directly elected people or by representatives appointed by democratically elected governments.
its actually far more democratic than our system where we can get governments with a majority of representatives on a minority of the vote and where we have people in government appointed by the church or there because their ancestors were french military who invaded.
but 1000% desire to stay totally British
That needs to be on the side of a bus.
The EU is corrupt, inefficient and staggeringly incompetent
Those are compliments compared with war-mongering, isolationist, monarchist.
The fact the EU commission can override the parliament (and has done) and the direct consultation/access lobby groups have to the Commission (which the population doesn't) makes the EU a less than perfect democracy. No worse than Westminster.
The EU is corrupt, inefficient and staggeringly incompetent.
Better than our lot though. I doubt we'd have had half the environmental protection laws we do if we hadn't been in the EU.
The fondness of countries for armies means that a supra-national body to dampen jingoistic zeal is often a good thing
I do find it slightly odd that at the same time as everybody was getting agitated about the Chilcot Report, about how we were taken into a ill-thought-out war by a single overzealous PM with not enough oversight to slow him down, everyone was also railing against the idea of an EU army.
Given no country really does anything military by itself any more, and the huge efficiency, oversight and accountability improvements you could make, it seems like a surprisingly good idea to me...
I'd happily have the EU run all military affairs, macroeconomics, foreign policy, environmental protection, emplyment rights etc. Devolve everything else down a level then national parliaments as they exist now become redundant
Europe instead of being 28 / 27 states becomes a federation of around 60 states as most countries in the EU would be happier split up.
Belgium can go to flemish and walloon states, The netherlands can split up into a couple of states, Germany - bavaria could stand on its own, Italy could split in two or 3. catalonia and the basque country become states in their own right and of course the UK can split back to its constituent parts.
The Mash has it right again.
I'd happily have the EU run all....macroeconomics,....
Wow! How bad does the track record have to be?
You cannot separate issues in that way - EU history has shown that clearly.
Given no country really does anything military by itself any more, and the huge efficiency, oversight and accountability improvements you could make, it seems like a surprisingly good idea to me...
You'd never get a consensus on action though. Leading to the situation where troops from one state were being sent to die by people from another. It'd never work in practice.
Leading to the situation where troops from one state were being sent to die by people from another
Isn't that how NATO works in essence - an attack one and everyone else piles in.
Isn't that how NATO works in essence - an attack one and everyone else piles in.
Like Afghanistan? and how Luxembourg sent nine people?
exactly who attacked a nato country in Afghanistan?
EU foreign policy and military track record ? Balkans and Ukraine ? Why would you put them in charge of those things when they can't run border/passport control or the money (€) ?
TMH you keep saying the EU has helped us, certainly not me it's been a monumental pita regulatory wise vs my competitors in US and Asia who can generate higher returns for their clients than can I. European clients often prefer to invest via an offshore (non-EU) fund. Services are zero rated under WTO tarifs, the issue is whether the EU allows financial services to be sold accross border. We are all allowed to have a Phillipines or Indian call center but not investment advice for example.
In any case I am ok with the tariff free trade as I have said many times there is no need for freedom of movement of people or a Parliament or a court which has jurisdiction over anything than trade disputes.
I understood that it was the US, a NATO member, who were attacked by al-Qaeda organised from Afghanistan.
Russia nicking Crimea seems to have not had any other country with it.
Talking of wars, Yorkshire still has scores to settle over what colour rose is best.
Nipper -and funded by Saudi
exactly who attacked a nato country in Afghanistan?
individuals belonging to the world-wide terrorist network of Al-Qaida, headed by Osama bin Laden and protected by the Taleban regime in Afghanistan.
which is why the NATO council [u]unanimously[/u] confirmed the invocation of Article 5
http://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm
http://www.nato.int/docu/review/2006/issue2/english/art2.html
we cover some ground on ere.
TMH you keep saying the EU has helped us, certainly not me it's been a monumental pita regulatory wise
Ability to operate across EU under single passport is MASSIVE and OBVIOUS
Think of the capital implications
presume you'd be happy to be repatriated?no need for freedom of movement of people
presume you'd be happy to be repatriated?
Happy to apply for a visa or just use typical 90 day stays. Have relatives with property in Florida who do just that, they have no permanent right to remain.
Bob send the nutcase to jail for a long time. BTW he was not looking for EU citizens he's Islamphobic
Telegraph has picked up on the obvious wheeze from the EU that all EU citizens in the UK should be under the jurisdiction is EU law. It was a legitimate or humanitarian offer, it's a p.ss taking attempted power grab.
[quote=jambalaya ]Bob send the nutcase to jail for a long time. BTW he was not looking for EU citizens he's Islamphobic
Still symptomatic of the current bad feelings that are being fueled by the media
How about increase in council tax to pay for social care?
Now where did they park that red bus with a catchy slogan on its side.......
Hey mt -
I want to explore the union of the ancient kingdom of Northumbria and scotland (including yorksire)a bit more. You say you want Boycott as King. I think we can live with that so long as we get a monarch of our own. Not sure whether to go with Rhona Cameron or Kirsty Wark tho. You see the issue is I am not sure Boycott knows anything about what happens north of the border.
[url= http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-sweden-idUSKBN13O2BN ]the list of friends and allies grows thin....[/url]
I have you have Yorkshire then you have to take the rest of Wales 😯
This is fun. Perhaps the offer should be extended to London, Liverpool and a York too.
I'm pretty sure the legal process for England and Wales leaving the UK would be just as lengthy and complex as Whole-UK leaving the EU.
Amusing idea though. 😀
Then we could have even more countries to blame for our problems.
Graham - one has to laugh at Brexit. Nothing to be gained by taking it seriously.
so if it is about sovereignty, how does this sit with international treaties? If you still beholden to the wto etc
[url= https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/12/philip-hammond-calls-for-post-brexit-transitional-deal ]https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/dec/12/philip-hammond-calls-for-post-brexit-transitional-deal[/url]
and why would the EU offer such a deal?
It is not about sovereignty at all, as mentioned in my post above and as admitted by Jamba just now. It is about certain elements of the business world wanting to get richer and more powerful without those pesky regulations and rules (workers rights, environmental laws, financial constraints etc) from Brussels getting in their way.
The sovereignty issue is a simple tool to incite the masses to achieve the goal of getting out of the EU. Years ago the same type of powerful people used to use religion for the same sort of goals.
TMH you keep saying the EU has helped us, certainly not me it's been a monumental pita regulatory wise vs my competitors in US and Asia who can generate higher returns for their clients than can I.
So you think we need LESS banking regulation?
This is all about your own self interest?
You'd never get a consensus on action though.
That's kind of the point, personally... a system where, by default at least, military action is the last resort when all other channels have been tried and everyone agrees it's the only thing left.
No system is perfect, there would be a risk of not acting quickly enough sometimes, but I suspect in balance it would be better than the shoot first, wonder what you're going to do next mentality we've seen a lot of recently.
So - what is this going to do to the price of bike parts from people like bike-discount.de?
Am I going to have to pay import duties when next I buy a cheap XTR HT2 bottom bracket?
Are we all going to have to go back to square taper as a result of Brexit?
Am I going to have to pay import duties when next I buy a cheap XTR HT2 bottom bracket?
That'll be negotiated out, the devaluation of the pound to make our exports more attractive will proper funk you though. 😛
@tj wot wer that great las o was on the Tube called, me age makes me forget but when ever she's on the telly she impesses me. Also I'd settle for for Phil Cunningham for King o Scotland, if he's not free Ally Bain. Boycotts lack of knowledge should not deter him of leadership north o the border, he's managed so far with ignorance.
@Oldnpastit square taper BB is the solution an anyone who can afford xtr is a metropolitan elite who needs a bike shop to sort his kit while he looks on drinking a skinny latte, chatting away about those think northern Brexiteers.
Hey mt -
I want to explore the union of the ancient kingdom of Northumbria and scotland (including yorksire)a bit more.
Being from Northumberland and knowing a lot from there I doubt you'd get much support for that. It's ironic that to avoid Brexit people would suggest more borders not less.
What's wrong with more borders, we could all have a border. Come near me an you'll be needin a visa as well as your passport, however for a small fee you can cross me border an do the jobs I'm to fat n lazy for.
Happy to apply for a visa or just use typical 90 day stays. Have relatives with property in Florida who do just that, they have no permanent right to remain.
And how does that work out for people who need a job? Or an education? Or health care? Oh - sorry - I forgot - it's OK for rich people so everything's fine.
And I think we all know where we should be telling this lot of [url= http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-38297595 ]Unelected Pompous Arseholes[/url] to keep their noses out of what is a truly British political decision 😉
And how does that work out for people who need a job? Or an education? Or health care? Oh - sorry - I forgot - it's OK for rich people so everything's fine.
Back to how it used to be, the rich can travel freely. The poor, tough, do as your told and don't get ideas.
Plus ca change.
The more i hear the more i come to the decision that what ever unfolds Brexit will satify c1% of the population, the majority will loose to varying degrees and various things, and they will never gain, not in ten years or twenty years, never.
And that was the plan all along.
Given the another thread it has come to my notice that the true candidate for the King of Free Yorkshire is .................................................................................................................................................................................................................John Shuttleworth. I believe he may even be suitable as head of state for the free alliance of Scotland, Northumberland an Yorkshire.
@molgrips my business (strategy) is 100% supported by strong banking regulation, that creates the opportunity as banks are forced out of certain lending sectors. My complaint referred to regulations applicable to EU investors and asset managers, my US and Asian competitors don't have to comply. I left banking in 2012 and in hindsight should have gone in 2008 when I had a good chance to do so.
@welsh I must have said this a dozen times, I voted on a matter of principal and long term benefit to the UK. I'll be retired by the time the benefits are flowing through, it will be the following generations who benefit.
And how does that work out for people who need a job? Or an education? Or health care? Oh - sorry - I forgot - it's OK for rich people so everything's fine.
People are welcome to apply for a visa once they have secured a job
Education and healthcare are available at cost
It is the UK's responsibility to provide the above "free of charge" for it's citizens. If you are not a citizen or working here with a visa we have no obligation. There are hundreds of millions of very poor people outside the EU, they need our help more than citizens of EU countries. If other EU members matched our generous foreign aid budget the world would wouod be a better place.
Jambalaya - Telegraph has picked up on the obvious wheeze from the EU that all EU citizens in the UK should be under the jurisdiction is EU law. It was a legitimate or humanitarian offer, it's a p.ss taking attempted power grab
Is it? I don't see how anyone capable of critical thought would expect them to take any other position. Their citizens will expect their rights to be protected - not handed over to the UK government. If they can't reach an agreement then they would be left with the choice of lose their EU citizenship (which they are unlikely to accept) or leave the UK - if that happened en masse it would be an absolute disaster for our businesses, public services and tax revenue for obvious reasons.
The telegraph is slipping over towards the hysterical mail / express / sun type of content. Can anyone recommend another source that will give me a view of the more informed and considered Conservative (and also Leave) arguments and opinions?