[Closed] EU Referendum - are you in or out?

[quote=thecaptain ]jamba, it can't possibly be an open border if we aren't in the single market, there will be customs and tariffs and checkpoints...

Its astounding he needs this pointing out and it pointing out that the other side also have a say in the border

Still I am sure this hubris will see us all through to an arc of prosperity

jamba, it can't possibly be an open border if we aren't in the single market, there will be customs and tariffs and checkpoints...

Open border in terms of people being able to just walk accross. Both governments have said so. UK govt free to do as it likes, if the EU forces the Irish into doing something different we can't do anything about that.

Wait and see folks. A50 in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved.

A50 in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved.

There will obviously be resolutions. But it remains to be seen if they will be good ones!

if the EU forces the Irish into doing something different we can't do anything about that.

It's up to the UK how we police the border and we will keep it open

Which one are you arguing now?

You forgot (1) that these are negotiations not unilateral demands and (2) the smiley

No wonder the Europeans are becoming irritated by the arrogance of the BSers - its as breathtaking as it is niaive

Got a letter today from my main grocery, dry and frozen goods supplier for tell us prices were going up due to weak £ and Brexit.

£/€ at same rate as in 2011 and 2013 so prices back to same as then ? Or higher as supplier takes advantage of Brexit to put one over on you ?

Many foods will be much cheaper post Brexit if we remain out of the single market and are able to import freely. European lamb protected by 40% tariif, I always buy British but would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)

@tmh the European are sh.tting themselves, Deutsche is on the slide and this is even before Greece and Italian banking crises returns to the headlines. Stap in its going to get very rough. Much better out than in.

Jolly good, how are we doing against the dollar in the same period?

[img] [/img]
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=USD&view=5Y

Oh.

would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)

Sadly you won't bet getting it at 1973 prices:

[img] [/img]
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=NZD&view=10Y

European are sh.tting themselves, Deutsche is on the slide

You have to be taking the piss on here as its just so silly

A50 in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved.

Whoosh… magic wand… all this sort of thing is resolved…

would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)

Buy what? You'd really rather ship lamb from the other side of the world rather than France? If you ever see French lamb for sale anywhere btw, I never have.

Buy local - my lamb comes from Wales where I live. No wonder the world is ****ed.

[quote=jambalaya ]...........European lamb protected by 40% tariif, I always buy British

Nice to know since most of the lamb exported within the EU comes from the UK

[quote=jambalaya ]...........but would happily buy from New Zealand like we always used to when I was a kid (pre '73)

Hmmm, not so nice. And the reason we import NZ lamb (and have always done) is because it is a seasonal product so the southern hemisphere producers make up the shortfall when the UK producers have nothing to sell. However, the Chinese are now the worlds biggest producers of sheepmeat so it won't be long before you will be buying your lamb from them. All the UK producers will have gone to the wall for sure.

Nice to know since most of the lamb exported within the EU comes from the UK

So does that mean that the "European lamb protected by 40% tariif" is mostly British and removing that protection would hurt us?

@welsh I am very pro UK produce, always buy that when I can even if price is higher. Ditto French products when I am there. I was only trying to make a point that our (especially Scotland's) historical ties are with NZ more than Europe.

I am all for a free trade deal but no freedom of movement and no budget contribution. EU says that nit possible so be ir

in first 3 months of next year and all this sort of thing will be resolved

Christ, you really are in la la land if you think this mess will be done & dusted by Easter.

You're away with the fairies & all the way over there.....& then some!

@tmh the European are sh.tting themselves, Deutsche is on the slide and this is even before Greece and Italian banking crises returns to the headlines. Stap in its going to get very rough. Much better out than in.

My old colleague Mr Cryan is in deep doo-doo indeed, however so what? We remain exposed to these trends either way as you well know. And we are not/were not exposed to EZ financial exposures directly since this is confined to EZ members - so what is the point?

Do we run away from Bz - weak economy, political collapse; Aus - econ slowdown; large parts of Africa - weak commoditiies, political unrest back again, corruption.

I am failing to follow the train of thought here?

Food prices have gone up because most commodities are traded in $ and €.

Is this what you mean about EU tariffs on lamb jamba:

Elizabeth Truss highlighted that outside the EU, tariffs could add an additional £155million to the cost of lamb and mutton exports, making British lamb a less attractive prospect for Europeans compared to New Zealand and Australian competitors.

British lamb still does not have access to the US and China markets, so the EU is a particularly important export destination.

Without this market - which accounts for 97% of all lamb and mutton exports - prices of British lamb could crash and put the sustainability of the industry and the livelihoods of 10,000 sheep farmers in jeopardy.

-- https://www.gov.uk/government/news/leaving-eu-would-be-major-threat-to-sheep-industry
-- http://www.nationalsheep.org.uk/news/5960/nsa-encouraged-by-clear-messages-from-secretary-of-state/

You have to be taking the piss on here as its just so silly

Wizard level trolling.

Lambaliar!

just made my self laugh.

I was only trying to make a point that our (especially Scotland's) historical ties are with NZ more than Europe

Fair number of Scots diaspora in NZ, but Scotland's historical ties are with France, the Low Countries and Scandinavia (particularly Norway). And of course Ireland.

[I]Its astounding he needs this pointing out and it pointing out that the other side also have a say in the border[/I]

Why are you surprised, it was publically said before the vote and no one (well, politicians nor media) commented otherwise.

British lamb still does not have access to the US and China markets, so the EU is a particularly important export destination.

UK imports more sheep meat than we export

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/27/theresa-may-accused-trying-to-alter-immigration-report-before-brexit-vote

Theresa May thinks she is or possibly actually is Frank ****ing Underwood.

UK imports more sheep meat than we export

Not from the EU it doesn't!

In 2015 we exported 41,634 tonnes of lamb and mutton to the EU.

And imported just 5,615 tonnes from the EU.

Sarko saves Europe!

http://www.itv.com/news/2016-09-27/nicolas-sarkozy-to-give-britain-chance-to-reverse-brexit-vote-if-elected-french-president/

Wow.. French president doing what no British politicians were clued up enough to do.

Merci, mon ami.

Of course Sarkozy wants us to reconsider, if we don't France is going to have to update it's budget contribution substabtially by €3-4bn pa ? Also risk to them of no trade deal is substantial.

Molgrips he's not there just yet 😉 Quite possible/likely he would win the Le Penn / Sarko run off after Hollande is eliminated as all the Socialists would vote tactically for him to keep FN out.

Graham - thats an interesting table, quite complicated. I see (I think) we export 40,000 tonnes and import 62,000 tonnes. So we are a net importer, so not self sufficient so a Brexit opportunity to become so.

thats an interesting table, quite complicated. I see (I think) we export 40,000 tonnes and import 62,000 tonnes. So we are a net importer

You think that's complicated? You look at that and think we are an EU net importer? Are you a bit thick?

Typical bloody shit for brains brexit voter! 😉

Also risk to them of no trade deal is substantial.

I really cannot decide whether this is ludicrous positivity or abject stupidity or both

@convert 😳 thanks for your kind words, I'll fetch my reading glasses 8)

EDIT: I am looking at total figures, we run a deficit ie import more than we export as a nation. Numbers above red line. Now we run a deficit with the EU - From tje Corbyn thread so eone suggested we import cheaper stuff from outside eu (paying 40% tariff ?) andprodcie amd export higjer quality to France etc. This is possible of coirse. What I am saying js we don't need access to an EU market, we consume more than we produce. Could be misreading this of course.

[img] [/img]

This is possible of coirse. What I am saying js we don't need access to an EU market, we consume more than we produce. Could be misreading this of course.

I watched the Brexit documentary last night.

Obviously leave is all about the 'people', I mean really good to see that the two mega-rich backers (and I'm sure there are more than two) were doing so much for the 'people'...

Yeah, right.

Jambas, the table is harly complicated, it just doesn't support your view.

And Sarkozy is not even ahead in the polls within his own party. Juppe is the current favourite to win the Droite nomination for the presidential election.

Great list of Brexits many unanswered questions here
And the defeating silence (or ignorance) from brexiteers tells you what you need to know

http://jackofkent.com/2016/09/the-many-hurdles-of-brexit-a-short-summary-post/

More dodgy stuff this morning relating to May in the run up to the referendum - apparently she'd been trying to manipulate immigration figures to make the UK look like it was getting a worse deal out of immigration than it actually was.

Is it me or are people getting the knives out for her?

Problems is, who is there who isn't worse?

UKIP enthusiast sister-in-law is visiting 😯

She's never once mentioned politics in the 25 years I've known her. It's like a switch as been flicked and she's turned into a non-stop propaganda machine. Makes this thread look like reasonable adults having a jovial chat.

UKIP enthusiast sister-in-law is visiting

Yup my sis-in-law has definitely felt emboldened to spout a load of racist and xenophobic nonsense since the referendum.
If it wasn't for my brother and the fact that our kids are good friends she'd be right of my Xmas card list

Here's that list of legal hurdles

Hurdle One: Which domestic legal form? Act of Parliament or exercise of the Royal Prerogative (or something else?)

Hurdle Two: What if the Scottish government is resolute in its opposition to Brexit?

Hurdle Three: What if the Northern Ireland government is resolute in its opposition to Brexit?

Hurdle Four: How is the border with the Republic of Ireland dealt with? What impact will there be (if any) on the Good Friday Agreement?

Hurdle Five: What if Gibraltar is resolute in its opposition to Brexit?

Hurdle Six: What if the government is defeated in the House of Commons on Brexit?

Hurdle Seven: What if the government is defeated in the House of Lords on Brexit?

Hurdle Eight: How is any Brexit to be reconciled with the 2015 Conservative manifesto pledge that the UK’s position in the Single Market will be “safeguarded”? How will that pledge affect the passage of Brexit legislation under the Salisbury Convention (that only legislation which fulfill manifesto pledges will not be subject to Lords’ delay)?

Hurdle Nine: How is any exit agreement with the EU to be completed in less than two years? Or will there have to be an agreement to extend time?

Hurdle Ten: How quickly can the UK and EU commence agreement on a trade (and/or framework) agreement to follow the exit agreement? Is such an agreement needed?

Hurdle Eleven: On what basis is the UK to have access to the Single Market?

Hurdle Twelve: Is the UK to continue as part of a Tariff/Customs Union with the EU or will it be able to negotiate its own tariff/customs agreements?

Hurdle Thirteen: To what extent (if any) will the UK accept the principle of freedom of movement in any arrangement with the EU?

Hurdle Fourteen: Will there be any special protection for the City of London?

Hurdle Fifteen: How quickly will the UK be able to sort out its position at the World Trade Organization? Will any current WTO members seek to frustrate or block the UK in this respect?

Hurdle Sixteen: To what extent will areas of substantial law need to be revisited? Would a simple savings provision suffice?

Hurdle Seventeen: To what extent will the law relating to various areas of practice – in respect of mutual recognition regimes and exchanges of information with other member states – need to be revisited?

Hurdle Eighteen: How can the UK civil service achieve Brexit (on top of its ‘normal’ workload) in a period of austerity and reduced budgets – and when it is one-fifth smaller than in 2010?

Hurdle Nineteen: What will be the legal position of rights already acquired (or which may be acquired) by people and companies under EU law once Brexit takes place? Will they be enforceable? Will there be compensation for the loss

Kimbers : I've been following David Green/Jackofkent since the brexit vote, I've often thought about posting up his thoughts on the matter but i can't be arsed arguing with idiots.

Graham - thats an interesting table, quite complicated.

It is. Can you explain how it supports your notion that [i]"European lamb protected by 40% tariif"[/i] is a bad thing?

Given that in 2015, [b]94.4% of our mutton & lamb exports were to the EU[/b] (41,634 of 44,068 tonnes) doesn't that mean that the protection from that tariff actually benefits us a huge amount?

I see (I think) we export 40,000 tonnes and import 62,000 tonnes. So we are a net importer, so not self sufficient so a Brexit opportunity to become so.

44,068 versus 64,037 tonnes for the last full year, but yes.

Note that 90.1% of that import (57,706 of 64,037 tonnes) was from New Zealand and Australia, because as welshfarmer pointed out, [i]"it is a seasonal product so the southern hemisphere producers make up the shortfall when the UK producers have nothing to sell."[/i]

So how does your "Brexit opportunity" work here? I don't remember anything in the vote about artificially altering the seasons or moving the UK to the Southern Hemisphere.

300 staff at the ministry of Brexit should sort this out in no time.....

Jambas, the table is harly complicated, it just doesn't support your view.

So feel free to explain how a headline figure of 64,000 tomnes of imports vs 44,000 toms of exports shows we don't have a lamb and mutton trade deficit ? We could switch all our exports into domestic markets.

@mike I get the point that business may have to adjust but it's clear the domestic market can support all our prodiction. Also it's clear we import large amounts of lamb and mutton despite high tariffs thus showing "free trade" isn't all it's cracked up to be.